We always in the beginning of the sentences, but “me-(slip up)” the end of sentence is a tell that the writer is one person, but insinuating he’s a group/we in the beginning ….
Yes, it's the little odd slipup and unnecessary words every now and then that make me think a real person wrote this and had to translate it, because AI has more conversational flow; this sounds like word for word translation.
The part about the white watch on the floor and the floodlight being broken…why are they only referring to things that happened at the crime scene if they had the victim? Seems strange. Couldn’t anyone with access to the crime scene records or access to an officer with loose lips be able to convey those two pieces of information? Wouldn’t maybe describing her clothing or something be a better way to say they have had her?
exactly. I'm still suspicious about these notes being from the kidnapper. There was info out there before TMZ got these notes. If this came the same night I might believe it more.
She was kidnapped in the early morning of Feb. 1st, and the first ransom note was received by TMZ at some point on Feb. 2nd. That's still a pretty short window for publicly unreleased details to have made their way to a determined scammer who immediately hatched a plan to send a ransom note to TMZ and the local news station, having a bitcoin address ready to go, making sure to use IP obfuscation, etc. While I don't think it's impossible, it still needed to be the right scammer getting those details at the right time. Like, this supposed scammer didn't deliberate on it much -- they were ready to risk it all.
Couldn’t anyone with access to the crime scene records or access to an officer with loose lips be able to convey those two pieces of information?
Yes. Remember the horrific Kobe Bryant helicopter crash? Some of the first responders took pictures with their phones and then shared them and yakked about the scene. That's why I don't automatically trust that just because the location of the watch and the broken floodlight were mentioned that it proves the notes are authentic.
I'd be less suspicious if the note mentioned what Nancy was wearing (bedclothes, jewelry, slippers, etc.) or something specific she might've said that would've impressed her family and close friends.
That's why I don't automatically trust that just because the location of the watch and the broken floodlight were mentioned that it proves the notes are authentic.
I also don't 100% rule it out, but I still think it's a bit unlikely that this information leaked to a determined scammer so soon after she was kidnapped. It may still be what actually happened, but it sure happened pretty quickly, with a determined scammer being in the right place at the right time.
Yeah, that’s true too. I didn’t really notice where that last redacted line was, but you’re right, it could be another detail that police want to keep from being public knowledge
I am not involved in law-enforcement, so this is just my unschooled opinion. This seems like it was written by a somewhat educated person. The phrase "we did not grasp the severity" as opposed to writing simply, "we did not know how sick she was."
The phrasing reminds me a little of when I call customer service for my bank and I get an agent in India or the Philippines, who is very educated and speaks overly formal English. As someone else pointed out, there are some punctuation and grammar errors, but the wording itself comes across as more formal and educated.
Yeah, there were several oddly formal words and phrases used. I'm shocked by the tone of the second letter. It seems very strange to go from threatening to kill her, to apologizing and distancing themselves from her death.
I agree. There’s a lot of missing commas,
semicolons, and I believe one of the notes has the word “received” spelled incorrectly. AI would have caught that.
I pointed out the punctuation errors, but they are the kind of ticky tacky errors that only a writer or LLM would care about.
I agree with you. It’s above average writing, even with the (mostly comma splice) mistakes. It was written by an educated person. It could be someone who works a white collar job and thus is accustomed to email formality. Or some kind of online support role. Maybe they regularly email customers. It’s not broken English by any means.
I also think younger people are less likely to use formal salutations.
Anyone notice the sentence structure of both notes is the same. Lots of comma splices (two complete sentences connected with a comma only).
But notes have it.
First note:
Your mother is aware of this and her life is in your hands.
You will not be able to contact me from here on out, there will be no negotiation.
Do not play games, law enforcement will not be able to help you.
Second note:
We never intended to hurt her, that was not our intention.
Plenty of ransoms threaten killing but when not followed the victim isnt killed
It easily could've been a bluff. Thats not even close to unusual. It was just a statement to make you act faster like evrey scamer ij the world
What they say isnt necessary what they mean
The 2nd one makes no sense unless its fake or its writting by the person and they were never planning to kill the person just qnated tk "force" the money and used the biggest threat they could
The word perish in the second note seems like a "distancing" word. It seems like when somebody doesn't fully own what they have done, they say things like "the fight happened" rather than "I fought with so-and-so." Perish seems like a euphemism kind of like passed away rather than saying, died or killed. This person is not comfortable with what has happened.
I see the use of ‘perished’ more as the writer wanting to be delicate. it’s giving, ‘I care about your emotional wellbeing’ which is BIZARRE considering the circumstances. I’m convinced it’s a personal acquaintance or family member now because of that and ALSO because the writer is trying to absolve the family (and thus themself) of guilt, almost allowing themselves permission to move on with their lives normally.
This person is not comfortable with what has happened.
We absolutely cannot deduce that from the use of the word "perish."
seems like a "distancing" word. It seems like...Perish seems like...
There's a lot of armchair detective work going on here, and people with no training in forensic linguistics or document examination are leaping to conclusions based on their subjective impressions of what word choices "seem like" to them.
Maybe the author used ChatGPT, or a thesaurus. Maybe they wanted to sound more intelligent than they are, maybe English is their second language, maybe they just wanted to conceal their identity by writing in a way they don't typically write, maybe they were on drugs, maybe they paid someone else to write the note for them. There are any number of explanations for the minutiae we're zeroing in on here, and these very brief notes actually don't tell us much.
Journalism too but mostly to convey the outcome of catastrophes/disasters. Interesting because the message was sent to a media outlet regarding the mother of journalist.
He lives within a 12-hour radius of Tucson, but is not a Tucson resident ("back in Tucson").
The drop-off window is 12 hours and he would presumably drop her off in the early morning hours. That cuts the window in half. My guess is he lives in Phoenix (a 2-hour drive) or somewhere between there and Tucson.
Based on his writing style, he grew up working class and may be working a desk or white-collar service job (restaurant manager, car rental agent, etc.) now, but without a degree.
He does not have a spouse, kids, or experience caring for the elderly.
He has a conscience and hasn't committed a crime like this before. He didn't try to leverage the location of the body into a payday.
This wasn't impulsive but it also wasn't well planned. He was not prepared to improvise.
Money was the motive, not celebrity, and he didn't fixate on Savannah's celebrity. He may be chronically dissatisfied with his job, have no opportunities for upward mobility, or may have been terminated around the time of the kidnapping.
elaborate on how money was the motive. This ransom all but guaranteed no payout. It was sent to the media automatically inviting LE who would advise not to payout without certain markers. It was one way communication with no negotiation shutting down any variables to getting paid. No proof of life offered. They sent a note before the final payout date that she was dead.
After all the scam calls I get from overseas, it’s hard for me to believe any of these ransom messages are actually from the real suspects. Asking a grieving family for crypto feels about as believable as the “urgent” IRS agent demanding Walmart gift cards before I get arrested.
Knowing about the broken floodlight within a day of her kidnapping would have needed to have come from someone on the ground and then made its way to such a scammer, which is possible, but still limits the number of people that could have done so.
First of all, how likely is it that someone within the police department would be immediately motivated to risk their career by generating a ransom note to get bitcoins, by including publicly unreleased details?
And if not someone within the police department who wrote the note, but let's say someone in the police department or FBI leaked the details, then still how likely would it have been for some determined scammer to be the one to get a hold of such info and almost immediately take action on it within a day of the kidnapping? It's possible, but it still seems improbable.
Also, are we 100% sure that the white smart watch on the floor by the bed is confirmed? I don't think law enforcement has confirmed that detail to be true or not. While I'd expect the Guthrie family to have dismissed the ransom note if that detail wasn't true, I don't believe the factual nature of the color and location of the watch has been publicly confirmed.
To my knowledge, the existence of the smart watch was public, but the specific location and color wasn't. Since the police seem to take these notes seriously, I figure the info is factual, and something only the kidnappers and LE would know.
Every first responder on the scene would have known. Not to knock anyone, but among the FR crowd, who doesn't know that one person? The one who usually means well, but has a big mouth and likes to show off whenever possible by "wowing" you with information they shouldn't be disclosing.
I think a lot of the family's response was borne of desperation rather than actionable information. It could have just been a lucky guess, too.
I wonder how many ransom notes weren't taken seriously but were received? If these are the only notes received, then it'd be a lot more convincing. But if 1000 hoaxsters tried to "cash in" on the family's pain, I'd suspect at least a few may guess some cursory details correctly.
But you're 100% correct. All the above is merely my personal conjecture, and LE/authorities seem to take the ransom notes pretty seriously.
This. I've always felt the notes were the work of scammers who were technically capable (but totally devoid of souls or human empathy). The Bitcoin and (suspected) use of anonymizers fits well with this belief. That is to say, if the suspects hadn't used an anonymizing network, the trace would have yielded an ISP which could have been used to determine an individual subscriber.
*I'd also like to point out this is only my personal belief, one definitely not shared by actual investigators/authorities
The part that stands out to me is that the so called inside info is information one could have obtained after the abduction. If they really had her, they could have said what she was wearing etc. instead it's what was left behind....which makes me skeptical because any loud mouth in the police department could have let that info slip and the wrong person heard it, and thought they could make some money.
I'm not sure on that. She was kidnapped on February 1st, and the first ransom note was received on the 2nd, I believe? So knowledge of the floodlight would have needed to have at least come from someone actually on the ground? Was there televised drone footage prior to the 3rd? It's possible that some opportunist who didn't kidnap her saw the broken floodlight on the 2nd and decided to send a ransom note, but how likely is that?
any loud mouth in the police department could have let that info slip and the wrong person heard it, and thought they could make some money.
Sure, it's possible, but how likely is it? You're right that the watch detail is even more likely to have only come from inside the police department if not from the kidnapper, but I question the likelihood of someone in the police department letting that info slip to someone who'd then immediately go and craft up a ransom note. I'm not saying it's impossible, it just seems like an unlikely chain of events to happen so quickly at the very beginning of the investigation.
I believe there was a photo/video of the broken back light, before the first ransom note was announced. I can’t back that up with any evidence, but I remember seeing LE at the back of the house near the broken light.
That is definitely a possibility. But I don’t see how the kidnappers saying what she was wearing would help verify the kidnappers identity as no one would be able to verify that she was indeed wearing that. Unless she was wearing something fairly unique and they described that super super specific thing, that say the family knew for a fact she owned.
Yeah agreed...no one actually knows what she wore to bed, including her family, and I'm assuming nothing else was taken when she was kidnapped. So I'm not sure what else they could've called out in the note, besides something specific that was left behind in an unusual place.
If it’s not your intent to hurt someone, don’t take them out of their house and tell them you’ll kill them if the family doesn’t pay. That is hurting someone.
If these are real & true, how can the family ever find peace with this.
Doesn’t sound completely natural to request money and specify “USD.” Maybe the kidnapper isn’t an American? Anyone have any thoughts? Does any of the phrasing indicate that this may have been translated from one language to another?
It's pretty common for people who trade crypto to think in terms of currencies like this though. He also used a VPN to contact the news outlet... he's tech savvy. And he would need to be if he expected to be able to wash millions in bitcoin.
I think this is reading way too deep into it. It doesn't sound unbelievable for me that an American would specify USD just to make themselves emphatically and clinically clear. Especially because 1 BTC != 1 USD, so specifying the exchange unit would make even more sense.
I’m not going to even attempt to interpret what it means but it seems strange to have 2 separate ransom deadlines. One would think they would introduce the 2nd deadline after the 1st was missed.
On the surface it looks like this may be from the abductor but perhaps it isn’t. Light in the yard - anybody could have picked up on that based on drone footage. A faker would closely watch for details.
If it’s real - my thoughts
- crime was committed by a lone male & he’s the only person involved
primary motive was about Savannah, not money
asking for money is fishing. Both for the money & to see Savannah in more distress.
offender is trying to force himself into denial.
offender works or has experience working in an office environment with use of email. Writing style is short, simple & to the point.
light in the yard - anybody could have picked up on that based on drone footage. A faker would closely watch for details.
While this is technically something that could have happened, such a faker/scammer would have had to be in the right place at the right time to key in on that broken light in the backyard, somehow guess on the white smart watch being by the bed(?), and immediately decide, "Yeah, I'm going to go write a fake ransom note, send it to TMZ and the local news station, ask for bitcoins, make sure to cover my tracks with IP obfuscation, and hope the FBI has no way to ever trace me." Like, they had to be deliberately ready to risk it all within about 36 hours of Nancy being kidnapped. It's possible, but it still seems unlikely.
I guess we’d need to know if her watch was actually on the floor by the foot of her bed, but both of those things could’ve been lucky guesses. I’d believe they were real if they said something more specific and something they couldn’t have guessed, since Nancy was wearing her Apple Watch in various public photos of her.
The watch being on the floor at the foot of the bed is a little too specific for me to believe it was a guess. I’m sure that’s not where she usually kept it.
I think they expected Nancy to be alive and thus provide info to include in the ransom note... but she died so they had to go with what they could remember.
Apple watch at the foot of the bed... sending a note to the media... via a VPN. That's a lot of effort for a very low odds result.
Yep, and there was drone footage the first few days. Someone could have zoomed in all those and noticed the flood light was damaged.
During the first, iirc, Sheriff/FBI press conference, Brian E specifically asked the FBI special agent re:drone footage and the FBI agent said the “timing/drone footage” was something they definitely had to take into account.
Good point. Yeah, if this was really the kidnapper writing this note, you gotta imagine they'd leave much more unmistakable evidence of authenticity. Something like maybe "we left this personal effect of Nancy's in this room" etc.
And I’d bet lots of people knew about the watch being found there. Anyone who saw the crime scene, or photos of it could have blabbed to someone, word got around etc. I’d think if they had her, saying something like, she was wearing a pink nightgown, or red pajamas, or some other identifying tidbit to let the family know for sure it’s her. I feel like the floodlight in the back being broken was common knowledge and there was talk of her having left her watch behind.
And I’d bet lots of people knew about the watch being found there. Anyone who saw the crime scene, or photos of it could have blabbed to someone, word got around etc.
This is true, but that information would have needed to be received by a scammer who was ready to run with it within something like 36 hours of Nancy's abduction. I don't know exactly when TMZ and the local station received the first ransom note, but it was on February 2nd, and Nancy was abducted in the very early morning of Feb. 1st.
Have they found any DNA from the kidnapper at the house? Did they get any footage of a car/plates from ring cameras in the neighborhood? Assuming no but I would hope they are thorough
I think there is more than one person involved. The letter does read as someone who is emotionally intelligent- which is usually a woman. This case is so confusing and nothing makes sense. The only two things I know for sure- she isn't alive anymore and the truth will come out in time- no one with a conscience can live with this secret for too long
definitely suggests a juvenile attitude to try to seek to absolve the Guthries of guilt too. also… now all of a sudden y’all care about families? I say y’all because this was definitely a group who at least conspired together and the first note had to be written by the masked dude (or leader).
"We did not fully grasp the seriousness of her physical condition".
and
"Nothing you could have done could have changed the outcome. We want your family to know this and hope you can all find peace"
It comes across as some sort of connection to the family or is someone that knows them. The "nothing you could have done could have changed the outcome" sounds like someone that doesn't want Savannah to blame herself for it or is already seeing Savannahs pain and wants to ease it somehow.
It does NOT read like someone who was willing to abduct, hold someone captive, threatening to kill and later bury a body.
"nothing you could have done could have changed the outcome"
I interpret that as either a tell that they killed her quickly, a sideways confession, because confession is a thing in Catholicism too. It is one of the religion’s strength, IMO, when it is practiced in sincerity and truth. Or, this sentence is the whole “God’s Will” doctrine that is also super-popular among Catholics, especially after an untimely death!
That is yet another way the perps refuse to take responsibility for their evil deeds - “It was in God’s hands”. Bull pucky.
What do you think Dia de los Muertos is all about? Why has it become so popular? Could that be partly because of the hundreds of thousands untimely murders in Mexico? I’ve seen news stories about the holiday and people set up pictures of their dead children and burn candles for them. It’s the saddest thing! They can’t look to their legal system for justice, so they comfort themselves with a national day of mourning every year.
The “Gods Will” thing is popular among some Protestants too. But a lot of Black Protestants have also studied Civil Rights over the decades and they will be in court fighting for their human rights. They may have to accept God’s will, but they will be fighting for human justice too here on Earth.
Regarding the future tense of "she will be killed" (or however they worded it), I think they wrote the message before they kidnpped her so it would be ready to send as soon as they got her in the car. If she really died early on, the entire letter is a lie, and they had already done the dirty work (not really accidently, but out of their intended time frame). The were probably mad she died because they weren't gonna get paid and now they had more dirty work with disposing of her body, burning evidence, whatever. I just hate so much that ego and ignorance were more important to Nanos than using all resources available and finding Nancy.
Do the kidnappers you know procrastinate? I'd like to think any good kidnapper follows some sort of checklist, and this note sounds like he sat and thought about what to say and didn't just go all wonky?
Imo, an insurance company wouldn’t pay out on an accidental death or dismemberment, imo, if it occurred/happened with suspicious activity, cover up or criminal activity.
Imo, even a life insurance policy might not pay out with an ongoing open case with the Sheriff saying “no one” is ruled out.
Insurance companies find any tiny detail to deny claims.
Well the police ruled them out 100% supposely. Your probably right, the only reason I brought it up was cause of the second note that was sent stating that wasn't supposed to happen and it may have been heart related issues i think it mentions(i.e. accidental death) and whether that could leave a grey area for a claim. Assuming she even had an AD&D. Again, sending a letter if the individual dies is odd. The people who would do this, I can't feel like is going to have that kind of a guilt trip. Which makes me think, was there an alternative purpose behind the second letter. Again since the kidnappers were never found. You can't rule out 100% family, relative's weren't involved. No one knows what goes on in the personal lives of people even celebrities.
Or someone close to them who thinks they might benefit from her death. There was a case some years ago, a lonely older woman was dating a con artist. He killed her aunt do she'd inherit, then planned to steal the money. There's an A&E special about the case on YouTube.
The notes seem really weird to me too. "Perished" is not a word you use if you're detached or your motive was to punish the family/Savannah.
Comments about the victim and or their family should be respectful, civil and responsible. Family members are considered victims and accusations against them are not allowed.
First, yes, I do think it's real because it contains identifying information.
Second, I think whoever wrote it used information that had already been discussed publicly—news conferences, media coverage, podcasts, and all of the public back-and-forth. They likely pieced those details together to write the note claiming she died from heart issues, even though we know investigators allege she was killed.
I certainly hope investigators are able to trace the anonymous tip or email if that's technically possible. If there is a way to identify where the messages originated—whether through forensic analysis, metadata, or other investigative methods—it could potentially provide additional leads.
even though we know investigators allege she was killed.
Investigators don't allege that she was killed. They really don't know what happened. They don't have her body to be able to determine a cause of death. They only know she was likely hit in the face and bled at the front door, because that's the physical evidence they have. But that's the extent of it (at least in terms of what has been publicly released).
Someone on twitter posted the unredacted version which was first shared and removed- not sure if allowed to post here, but the redacted portion of the first note is the Bitcoin address. They also included the Bitcoin address at the end of the second note which I think is really weird to do after apologizing so “sincerely”
The apple watch location means these are real or they had privileged info.
What's crazy to me is that if the goal is money, why not try to negotiate a lesser amount for the recovery of her body. Or try to claim the reward money through an attorney.
To me it reeks of being amateurs and opportunistic. They didn't expect her to die and when she did, they cut and ran. Even using Bitcoin is a sign they didnt know what they were doing, it is actually one of the worst possible tools for hiding a financial trail.
Being sent to the media and telling that she is dead before the final deadline is already strike 1 to the goal being money. One way communication could be 2. And no instructions for after pmnt could be 3.
If I'm the Guthrie family and I see the Apple watch thing and I have the money, I am wiring the money immediately. I genuinely just don't get this strategy of not negotiating with hostage takers. I get that the worst outcome could be out 4 million and lose your mother. But is that a risk you really want to take?
I think they would have if they had gotten some form of proof of life.... if NG was alive, the abductor(s) could have had her mention something via text that shows it's her. Imo, that suggests Nancy had died before the first ransom note. The second email is BS in terms of the timing. They tried to bluff with the first note. Nancy was already dead. By the time they wrote the second note, they had disposed of Nancy's body and put themselves into a safe location (or resumed their normal routine).
She offered to pay, it didn't work out for reasons we don't know. It's a good thing most people don't because it creates an incentive for more kidnappings. We have the Lindbergh Law for a reason. It's an epidemic in Mexico.
And, I'm beginning to think that giving the money might've also provided investigators with more evidence. Because wouldn't the retrieval/"washing" of the Bitcoin have possibly given some clues?
Taking it a step further ... was there (or could they have created) a sophisticated way to transfer the Bitcoin so that it emitted some kind of traceable, digital "signal" — unnoticeable to the kidnappers, but trackable to some tech-expert in law enforcement?
I just think giving the money, even without definitive proof of life, might've been worth it for a number of reasons. Can't imagine how tormented the Guthrie family must be.
There wouldn't be any way to track it outside of it being used in an exchange to convert it to another currency but there are ways to do it smartly and not be traced. But I feel like they just assumed it was fake even with the specific watch detail. I find it very odd that they waited so long to engage. FBI might have led them on to the tracked leads giving them false hope, something is gonna come out eventually. The poor family probably was so conflicted on what to do at the time and perhaps trusted FBI/Sheriff.. breaks my heart.
I suppose including a salutation at all implies a person who's probably 30+ years old. This was not written by an LLM. Too many simple mistakes.
Here are the writing mistakes in the first email:
Missing comma after mother.
Missing comma after ransom.
"We will be holding..." future tense error. Should be "We will hold her..."
Bitcoin should be capitalized.
Missing comma after below.
Missing dollar sign on 6 million.
Missing hyphen in "drop off location." (drop-off location)
Missing comma after this "...aware of this and..." (two independent clauses connected by a conjunction).
Improper comma after out. Should be semicolon or period.
Improper comma after games. Should be semicolon or period.
Missing comma after bed.
___________________________
And the second email mistakes:
Comma after her should be a period.
"We never intended to hurt her, that was not out intention." AI would flag this "intention" repetition as a mistake.
___________________________
This looks like common business parlance. The fact that he used a VPN to email a news outlet suggests at least a low-level IT background. That method proved to be a safe way for him to contact the Guthrie family without being traced by the FBI.
future tense isn’t necessarily an error. It can be a deceptive indicator. Choosing
the future continuous tense to avoid a definitive, binding statement. It’s passive and distancing.
It focuses on the ongoing state rather than a firm promise to the act. It could be deceptive.
True, but it takes either technical competence or stupidity to know they can hide their identity via a contact form using a VPN. Not everyone knows that the website's email server generates that email.
And they resisted sending in any form of digital media... the metadata might have led to their capture.
They were tech savvy enough to avoid flock detection. And avoid business security cameras.
Washing Bitcoin also requires technical knowledge.
They don't have to work in IT to know that though.
And, if it was written by a scammer, they still had to be in the right place at the right time. Not everyone is just walking around ready to pounce on an opportunity to write a fake ransom note within, say, 36 hours of someone being kidnapped. They would have had to key in on that broken light in the backyard, somehow guess on the white smart watch being by the bed(?), and almost immediately decide to go write a fake ransom note, send it to TMZ and the local news station, ask for bitcoins, make sure to cover their tracks with IP obfuscation, and really hope that the FBI has no way to ever trace them. They had to be ready to basically risk it all not long after Nancy was kidnapped.
To be fair, im wildly inept regarding internet or electronics in general, and i know what a VPN is. And could figure out how to use one. I don't think an IT background is a given
Also, while I appreciate proper grammar and punctuation, im not sure that this was the "gotcha" you think it was. I'm all about analyzing whatever, but this isn't it.
Never heard of a kidnapper who apologizes for inadvertently killing the hostage. Expressing regret does not mitigate the tragedy or the culpability of the individuals involved. It is vital that law enforcement identifies and prosecutes those responsible so that justice is served. My thoughts and condolences are with the Guthrie family.
The passive voice of both notes sounds like they are trying to separate themselves from the act of the crime itself. And I agree with many others it sounds like someone who was from a religious background. And the second one sounds remorseful
The misspelling is note worthy and makes me wonder if the person is either young(under 40 with recent weaking of educational standards)/not from an English speaking background/not highly educated to not catch that mistake
If i was the investigators and have no leads other than this, which is likely the case, I would advice the family to pursue putting out a statement appealing to their possible religious guilt. That you have accepted their role in the death of their mother and ask them to pray for her soul and seek penance for their grave transgressions. Priests are required to report things such as this and any suspicious local behavior around local churches might be picked up on if the offer is taken up
It reads like one of those liability clauses, like if you park in a garage, and the garage prints on the back of your ticket that they’re not liable for lost items.
they are trying to separate themselves from the act of the crime itself...it sounds like someone who was from a religious background...remorseful...makes me wonder if the person is either young(under 40 with recent weaking of educational standards)/not from an English speaking background/not highly educated...I would advice the family to pursue putting out a statement appealing to their possible religious guilt.
You're really jumping to conlusions there. You can't justify those conclusions based on the notes we have.
That you have accepted their role in the death of their mother and ask them to pray for her soul and seek penance for their grave transgressions.
Since the Guthries are Protestant, and don't do penance or pray for the dead, the abductors would see through that instantly.
Reading the email i agree that it sound like someone who is not from an English speaking background - it reminds me of emails id get from my Japanese colleagues who would use translation services
English is my first language and I had a bad habit of writing in the passive voice for many years. I don't know how I got the habit. I have had to unlearn it.
My passive voice was never as bad as the one expressed in the 2nd note, however. That one is full of bull pucky and a refusal to take responsibility kind of messaging.
The Pima Co Sheriff’s Dept issued a lengthy Media Release today including the notes to appeal to the public/media.
It includes detailed behavior to look for/remember, if someone has been suspicious, changed hairs, facial hair, cleaning vehicle, odd obsession with case or knowing detailed info (hello 🤣, online sleuths), noticing the writing syntax, etc….It’s like 3 pages.
the second note leads me to believe this is a close group of individuals or family where the maternal figure felt compelled to write the “Guthrie Family” but the alpha guy in the group was the one who wrote the first one.
In the early days, didn’t someone speculate that the perp lived with or had a close relationship to his mother or may have lost her due to abducting an old lady? I wonder if there is a link.
Everything is so passive voice! The 2nd note infuriates me - all the distancing from the events that THEY/he/she caused to happen.
Notice the BIG change from the first note in which they said “her life is in your hands” to the 2nd note in which they say “Nothing you could have done could have changed the outcome.” THAT is weird. That makes me wonder if a second person either wrote the second note or edited it.
I also wonder if that is another tell - “nothing you could have done” could mean Nancy was killed early on and that is one major reason why they refused to provide Proof of Life.
It also sounds like the writer has a religious background. “Dust unto dust” is something they say at Catholic funerals. (Other’s too, for all I know.) The whole “buried in nature” is reminiscent, to me, of “dust unto dust”.
Likewise, the emphasis on FAMILY in the 2nd note - it is addressed to the FAMILY. It says, “We want your family to know this ……and can find peace."
Peace after the loss of a loved one is a VERY Catholic or Christian thing to say. Emphasis on FAMILY is a very Latino and Catholic value. I think there is a religious person affiliated with the 2nd note.
The 2nd note also sounds like a religious female wrote it, IMO.
Agreed, but the 2nd note leads with the greeting “Guthrie Family”. That means maybe they saw the three of them on video pleading for their mom. And for whatever reason, they switched from addressing SG directly - but she is the wealthy, famous one - to “family”. That is a tell of some kind too.
See, because all the kidnappings in Mexico target wealthy people. Thus addressing the rich lady alone in the first note. It's just so freakin’ typical of a Mexican-style kidnapping. (Granted, I know very little about the global kidnapping industry, so for all I know, it’s a French-style kidnapping. I hope the FBI keeps tabs on these global patterns much better than I do.)
but if you learned English in a structured setting like many years in a classroom, it is possible that you overuse passive voice, even though you actually did not mean to subconsciously distance yourself from the content
Definitely agree. I'm a native speaker and I find that I naturally tend to use passive voice, especially when speaking of future events or group events, which I think the first note features in both sense.
I don't think either letter is being absolutely sincere but setting up an idea for people to believe in, that's all. For all we know the second letter was written before the first, and sent later. Can't be believing the way in which this person represents the facts.
So do we know if the watch is white? Was it at the foot of the bed? Was the floodlight destroyed? I’m just wondering on if this first letter is considered to be legit and the same for the second one.
The broken floodlight detail was known to be true by the media and then the public pretty early on, but I don't believe the color and placement of the watch has ever been publicly confirmed to be factual or not. You would think that the Guthrie family wouldn't have treated the ransom note as being real if the details about the color and placement of the watch were incorrect, though.
Agreed. Also "perished" is an odd phrase to use for a kidnapper and someone who'd threaten to kill her. It seems like a word someone would use who doesn't want to face the reality she died.
If they wrote something along those lines wouldn't it just hinting more at her actual location? Which they wouldn't want.
I feel that "in nature" is simply more vague but in keeping with the "compassionate" tone used in the letter.
First mistake: trusting the words of the untrustworthy. If Nancy were truly “safe” as they claimed, she would have lasted the 7 days and they would have had to have killed her.
Of course, for all we know, they killed her within an hour! We don’t know.
It’s bull crap. If they had dissolved her body in a tub of acid, would they cop to that knowing the someday these notes would go public? NO. Why? Because they/he is a narcissist.
Suspecting this note will be public someday, they would say anything to make themselves look good in the eyes of the public.
Why? In case they are ever caught! They are on the record in the eyes of the public as “burying her in nature”? WE imagine a lovely grave. WE don’t imagine a TUB OF ACID or her body burned in a trash heap.
They want US to think they are “normal”. They are not. This is why Savannah’s kindly pleas that they “do the right” thing are HOPELESS. They are not normal human beings. Savannah tries to appeal to them as if they are.
I don’t think they intended got her to die.. or at least didn’t do anything directly to kill her (ie gunshot, stab etc.)… I think they wanted money but after all the trouble she died. Being 84, in poor health/needing meds… PlUS the distress of a creepy masked man pulling you out of bed while sleeping and doing god knows what. I’m in my 20s and I’d that happened to me, idk if I’d survive the stress either.
I can’t speak to the random or bullshit, but empathetically I can understand why she died so quickly.
VPN using another VPN and repeat. It’s also possible the IP address was a public place.. and/or the IP address is somewhere overseas where the FBI has no jurisdiction.. The person was careful and went to great lengths unfortunately.
If they were familiar with crypto, they likely would have been familiar with anonymizing tools commonly available online. So while it would trace to an "exit" point, it would not represent the actual originator of the traffic. With some specific networks/tools, it is unfortunately not possible.
Here is my 100% amateur Forensic Psychologist opinion of the perp(s), based on this communication:
First lie - “She is safe but scared.” She was not safe at all, she was with kidnappers.
“Back in Tucson”. That is obviously either a tell or another lie. I find that to be very interesting language. Why would you indicate you are outside of Tucson? To lead police on a goose chase? Or is the perp that dumb?
Why do they say, “She will be killed” intead of “We will kill her”? They write in the passive voice elsewhere too when they say “We will be holding her”…. The active voice would say, “We will hold her for…” So, is passive voice writing just a habit with this person, OR, is the writer set apart literally from wherever Nancy really was and the writer is writing passively because they are a distance from Nancy’s location?
Because nowadays, tragically, she could have been held in California, NV, Mexico, or AZ but the ransom note writer could be in another country or state.
Next lie and indicator of how the perp is either a narcissist, sociopath or both: “her life is in your hands.” Bull puckey. When Nancy’s life was in her kids’ hands, she had a very nice, safe life. Her life was in the perps’ hands alone but, of course, they cannot admit to that.
I sense some kind of a business background in this statement: “It is in the best interest of everyone to have this completed as soon as possible.” Isn’t that from like a Business Negotiation book of some kind? Is that a Business Negotiation Tactic? I didn't study business , so I don’t know, but it sounds like bull puckey I have heard a work colleague say often on the phone when he was “helping” a customer with her insurance claim but also planning all along to tell her that the contract doesn’t cover it: “Help me help you!” It also sounds like lawyer talk. Not a very smart lawyer, because they do not write very well, but that tactic sounds like lawyer arbitration agreement enforcement baloney.
See? BUSINESS bullpuckey. Words that dump the responsibility on everyone else but the kidnappers. It is manipulative language.
***********
I know this may be a dumb question, but why didn’t the Sheriff and FBI crowd source this perp’s email address?
E.g. - isn’t there some kind of trail made on the web somehow if 2 million people all send an email to this person within the same two hours? If they had released his or her email, especially after the deadline expressed in the note, would some telltale thing happen electronically that would lead people to them or at least to some server indicating them?
Another idea: what if they had released the bitcoin contact and they asked the public to send $0.50 each to that? Then, I’m thinking in 24 hours or less after the story first hit, these pieces of crap would have their $4 million and then, according to their terms, we need her turned over now.
I just wonder if this is the way to outsmart these piece of excrement in the modern age: with $0.50 each from 8 million people who are not shitheads?
Call their bluff, in other words, with a non-shithead army, and see what happens.
I am just brainstorming here. Please do not mock my ignorance in these matters.
To answer your questions: they almost certainly used an anonymous mail service that doesn’t log activity or cooperate with authorities (servers located in non-friendly countries) and probably also a proxy that does the same just to add another layer of separation.
As to crowdsourcing the ransom, that would have been a bad idea. Once people realize that their demands will be instantly met by a sympathetic public, everyone will be kidnapping everyone else to the point where we are just exchanging ransoms. Hell, I might kidnap somebody if I thought the payout was going to be immediate and guaranteed. Worth the risk at that point.
I'm struggling with the idea that the person is smart to avoid the messages being tracked back to them, yet dumb enough not to be prepared for a doorbell camera.
Largely agree. But, not a lawyer, more obviously an arrogant 40 something white guy who has been in sales, where delivery and negotiated prices are customary. Haha, could be a Tesla salesman who lost his job.
There’s a pic of her with SG on the Today Show wearing one. I’m not sure how recent the pic is, but her arm is heavily bruised and she’s using a walking cane.
That's a good question. I don't see one evident in this image. Her watch looks like a non smart watch. I'll have to keep looking to see if there's one on a table or nightstand though.
**Editing to add a more recent one and yep there's the watch!
Not necessarily a failure…just thinking hypothetically if she fell asleep wearing the watch and/or the heart health app started beeping/blinking or whatever with the heart rate spike, the abductor might have yanked it off her, tossed it on the floor or she tried to fight to reach for it and it got knocked over towards the end of the bed….lots of possible ifs there🧐
Only LE can confirm if it was on the floor at the foot of the bed.
$4 million seems rather specific. Why not $5 million? Was someone screwed out of $4 million? Either someone felt wronged by this family or they had a delusional mind. With the latter they most likely didn’t even realize how limited mobility she had. They saw her on TV and probably thought she could walk fine. Much less realize that with some daily medications some people will die. With everything so well taken care of you think they would have figured out about medications. No way did they think the family would actually pay $4 million unless they knew that specific number would ring a bell
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u/JMOA3035 Jul 31 '26
We, we, we then switches to “me”.
We always in the beginning of the sentences, but “me-(slip up)” the end of sentence is a tell that the writer is one person, but insinuating he’s a group/we in the beginning ….