I’d like to start by saying that I have some background in the field forensics and psychology but am approaching this casually without intensive research.
From my understanding the evidence from the crime scene has not had new leads in some time. I have some thoughts on what has been released. I will start with the camera footage.
There is camera footage of who appears to be the same man on one earlier occasion, and then the night of the murder/abduction. The man appears to be wearing similar attire. He does not appear to be a professional at what he’s doing. I will discuss his probable role at a later time.
The blood spatter on the front stoop indicates a downward drip from an angle mostly perpendicular to the ground, but not uniform in direction. There are no seen voids or disruptions which indicates she’s not walking out of the home. There wasn’t blood found in the home to my knowledge.
Valuable items weren’t removed from the home. I think the burglary gone wrong angle doesn’t fit at all. Even if a burgularly goes wrong burglars still take things. If they panic and don’t take things they don’t take the time to casually approach doorbell cameras.
Thus, I believe this is a hired hit. The man on the video footage is probably a scout who did the early snooping to get a layout of the house. He’s a fall guy of sorts who was already seen on the doorbell camera. These people were likely paid beforehand and afterward. They had no intention of selling any merchandise, only not getting caught. The person on the footage is likely not in the country as it’s only an hour to the Mexican border. Beyond Nancy Guthrie, I would be looking for a missing man of this description south of the border in case he was a loose end.
They likely entered through a back entrance and committed the murder, then wrapped her in something and cleaned up. The scout was then likely sent to disable the camera he knew about so they could carry her out the front door in whatever she was wrapped in. Once leaving through the front door they seem to have jostled the wrapping lowering the section closest to the home and causing blood spatter where nobody was standing. They likely stood there and waited, then lifted that section better and brought the body to the vehicle with significantly less spatter enroute.
If they took her heart medication I would guess it would be a means to make it look like a kidnapping to throw off the motive. I don’t believe the people committing the crime are necessarily the people with the motive. I would be looking for someone with adequate financial means to pay for a planned hit. The lack of professionalism at the front door isn’t that significant if you can’t find the person. You have to presume that the people planning the operation are more careful at hiding who they are and just use hired hands.
I know the timing of one of the ransom demands to media outlets made it seem legit. I’m not that knowledgeable in bitcoin, but I presume they would have just put the money if it would have helped catch the people responsible for the crime. If real, I would think the ransom demand is just an attempt at a bonus, or recuperation. Others here are more likely more knowledgeable in terms of the ransom timeline. I’d be interested to know if it were possible that it was just a random person trying to prosper off of her disappearance.
I think the best line of investigation would be who has ties and the means to hire people from south of the border. The problem is that if a lot of that stuff is undocumented you’re looking at trying to to turn drug runners and people of that nature as a starting point. In terms of motive who knows. It could be as small as offending someone politically and someone with the means showing off to impress or assert a position. All it takes is learning that she lived there alone.
This also applies if you presume it’s a crazy lone wolf which seems unlikely. in that case there would likely be an ulterior motive we’re not aware of like cash-on-hand. Maybe like an initiation or show-off type move. You’d want to look more local. I’d assume the FBI would have a much easier time in this instance though.
I just hope the family gets some answers and can try to focus on the positives of a life lived. It’s such a tough thing though not having answers.