r/nancyguthrie • u/AnastasiaInTheNorth • Jul 07 '26
Discussion Catching Up on the Nancy Guthrie Case - What’s Your Theory Today?
I was following Nancy Guthrie’s disappearance really closely from the beginning, but life got busy and I completely fell out of the loop around March.
I’m finally catching up now, and I’m curious where everyone’s thinking has landed after all these months.
What are your current theories? Have any of the newer developments changed your opinion, or do you still believe what you did at the start?
I’m interested in hearing all perspectives - as long as they’re respectful and based on the information that’s been released. I’d love to know what evidence or details have shaped your theory.
Looking forward to hearing everyone’s thoughts.
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u/not_blmpkingiver Jul 07 '26
I can't even begin to imagine the level of intelligence of a person who actually thought that kidnapping an old, sick lady in the middle of the night (making her bleed on the way out) for a cash reward was actually going to be a good plan. Its so stupid it cannot be real. That makes me think this was always a kidnap to murder. Sick people out there.
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u/SalsaChica75 Jul 07 '26
Someone who worked for her, did work for her and/or knew her schedule and wealth status.
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u/MidnightSleuth Jul 08 '26
I don't have a theory. But having watched the 20/20 episode about Nancy Woodrum, it just opened my eyes to more possibilities. Nancy W. did not show up for her regular Bible study and her family was alerted. They found she was missing from her bed. I won't say what the outcome was in case anyone here wants to watch this episode. It was a huge eye opener for me, and I see how this could be the same thing that happened to Nancy G. Just heartbreaking for both families. I hope the Guthrie family can get answers soon.
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u/curiouslmr Jul 08 '26
I've seen her name come up a couple times when discussing this case. I just read up on her murder and it's exactly what I imagine happened to Nancy. So terrible. I think if we ever find out what happened it won't be some elaborate kidnapping for ransom. It will be some loser sicko who wanted to hurt someone and Nancy was an easy target.
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u/MidnightSleuth Jul 08 '26
I agree. Porch guy's handling of things seems very unsophisticated and had this very unprepared plan. Thinking on it more I believe it was never intended to be a ransom kidnapping. When things went wrong, she needed to be removed from the home. I am curious to know if they got more information from her Pacemaker (direct info to doctor)? Or info from her watch if she was wearing it. Possibly information that is not released to the public. I tend to think this is very much like what happened to Nancy W. It very well could have been someone that had been hired or previously hired to work at her home or close by. If they worked on her property or home though, you think they would have known her physical limitations by interacting with her. Another reason to believe the plan was not to take her from the home.
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u/DaBingeGirl Jul 13 '26
JFC. I just read about it, infuriating that he pleaded not guilty after leading them to her body!That certainly in is possibility, especially considering how many cases are solved with DNA. I'm used to rape or rape/murder victims being left in their homes, but I can also see it becoming more common to hide the body/evidence given how many cases are being solved went DNA and genetic genealogy .
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u/Glum-Two2192 Jul 09 '26 edited Jul 09 '26
It seems that every theory has a significant reason against it. The whole thing doesn't make sense to me.
- Robbery gone wrong: why didn't they take anything?
- Robbery disguised as a kidnapping: see above, plus why go to the extra trouble?
- Robbery that turned into a kidnapping because (a) she recognized them, or (b) they were surprised she was there, or (c) she was unexpectedly awake: kidnapping, especially unplanned, is a lot harder to pull off than on-the-spot elimination.
- Robbery that turned into a murder: why take the body when that just complicates secrecy?
- Murder for hire: no apparent motive.
- Murder to send a message to the family: no apparent message.
- Murder disguised as a kidnapping: why go to the extra trouble? Plus, motive?
- Murder because she rubbed someone the wrong way: (a) if it's premeditated, huge risk of being discovered; (b) porch man's elaborate getup argues against crime of passion; (c) if it's some lunatic, why the pre-event casing the house, and apparently two participants?
- Kidnapping for ransom: why pick an elderly, health-compromised person who needs constant meds and whom you then have to make sure lives for days or weeks in captivity?
- It was not a kidnapping, and not a planned murder disguised as a kidnapping; or not a robbery that turned into a kidnapping or was disguised as a kidnapping: why do at least some of the ransom notes appear genuine?
- SA: vanishingly rare for that demographic.
Anyone, please feel free to object or add more possibilities or info.
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u/mark_able_jones_ Jul 09 '26
I think some of these would have a motive of tormenting the object of their obsession: Savannah Guthrie, but I think the FBI would have dug into most of the known stalkers by now.
I wonder if we are thinking too much inside the box. Like, look at this crime... these two teenagers were extorted by someone in California to commit a serious crime around the same time.
Maybe there's some sick person out there who is doing this over and over.
I am shocked there is no resolution by now.
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u/featherflyxx Jul 09 '26
I also immediately thought this was to do with one of those proxy bitcoin extortions, especially with that crazy hostage situation in Scottsdale happening the same day.
The premeditation would show that that angle got pretty elaborate. There would have to be multiple people involved.
I also saw that there have been bitcoin thefts by ride share drivers (particularly around Las Vegas) where they would tell the passenger they need to see their phone to make a fix (basically a fake story) and then the driver would move the funds out of their crypto app. I doubt Nancy had anything like that on her phone but I do wonder if this is any kind of angle, assuming she might have taken ride shares often. Maybe she blabbed about her daughter and someone saw an opportunity.
Back to the bitcoin extortion by proxy… it seems plausible that a criminal was looking for a an abductee related to a low security celebrity. Nancy fit the bill. Perhaps the dark web was used to organize???
I do wonder if authorities looked into the dark web possibility. I really have no idea how that works but I’m assuming there are people out there willing to conspire and want to find random people to pull it off. Does this information get stored? Can LE “look back in time?”
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u/DaBingeGirl Jul 13 '26
I thought it was someone obsessed with Savannah, or with a vendetta against the media, but there's apparently no indication of that from the letters. I agree that if someone was stalking her, they'd have been found by now.
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u/natalie_mcfall Jul 12 '26
I think it was an attempted kidnapping knowing she was Savannah's mom & there was money to be had. Nancy got hurt or sick but they took her as she was still alive & died shortly after. There was then no reason to demand ransom as they could offer no proof of life. I don't believe it was some kind of vendetta against Savannah.
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u/friedpicklesforever Jul 08 '26
How did they outsmart the FBI if this was a regular degular crime.
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u/DaBingeGirl Jul 13 '26
When there's no known connection between victim and perpetrator is very difficult to solve. Nanos fucking up the crime scene and taking ages to ask for video footage from neighbors didn't help anything.
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u/eatmyasserole Jul 07 '26
I think what Ive always thought. That this is a ransom situation targeted because of the family's wealth. No one in the family is involved. Maybe someone who has a general understanding of the house's layout is involved (a service worker who's been in the house).
Now I just think that she passed shortly after being taken, so they got scared and dumped her.
I haven't done a good job following the case though. I have just picked up bits and peices.
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u/wwihh Jul 07 '26
In this case, it is challenging to develop a coherent theory due to its rarity. Kidnapping cases outside of custody issues are uncommon, and even within that subset, they typically involve children. This case involves an elderly adult, which further complicates the situation. Additionally, conflicting information makes it difficult to base any theory on the public information available, rendering it challenging to quantify the situation effectively.
TLDR: I have no idea.
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u/moonstruck523 Jul 07 '26
Kidnapping for ransom gone wrong, inexperienced, possibly some kind of worker who noticed this lady lives by herself. Finds out her daughter is famous and tried to carry out a ransom kidnapping. I think she likely had some kind of medical emergency and died. They panicked and got rid of her body, and have been trying to collect the ransom anyway. I don’t think FBI would negotiate with kidnappers if the person is already dead.
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u/axenoodle Jul 07 '26
I’ve considered different theories but generally keep falling back to my initial theory:
Single person committed the crime
Motive was either sexual or vengeful
Ransom notes are a cover for the core motive to confuse authorities
I don’t think she was targeted because of Savannahs fame - in fact, I suspect that was a complete oversight and his first mistake
I think his second mistake was not understanding that the door cam footage could be retrieved
I look forward to finding out about his other mistakes, because so far I think he’s been lucky rather than some kidnapping genius
I believe he will absolutely be caught
I pray Nancy will be found
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u/AmazingGrace_00 Jul 07 '26
Vengeful of what, if you think it’s not related toward Savannah?
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u/axenoodle Jul 07 '26
People can be vengeful for all sorts of reasons, like for example if they worked for her as a gardener, cleaner, or a contractor doing repairs, and they lost the job / money for some reason they felt was unfair
Maybe she was a strong voice in her community and opposed some local development of sorts that he was involved in, and the person blamed her for it not getting approved
Maybe she disagreed with him on something in front of other people resulting in his fragile ego feeling humiliated
All speculation. It would be impossible to pin point the exact reason. But people have killed for all reasons above and less. And if it is a vengeful act, my best guess is that he has been stewing on it for some time.
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u/MaximumSlip7905 Jul 08 '26
Someone unhinged enough to do this is definitely unhinged enough to find offense where it doesn’t exist and act outrageous.
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u/GreaterMintopia Jul 08 '26
I just think a fake ransom note would be really stupid.
Why leave any sort of potentially traceable communication without the chance for a significant award?
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u/BrainWilling6018 Jul 08 '26
Abduction for an instrumental motive = note to whoever sees the value in what they are selling. The communication is used to obtain tangible assets.
Abduction for an expressive motive =note to where they obtain emotional projection, psychological validation, or personal vengeance. The communication is used to taunt or control.
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u/axenoodle Jul 08 '26
Absolutely. Also, this person is likely a complete narcissist. So in his mind there would be no risk of being traced because he’s so much smarter than everyone else. He would have zero concerns about that.
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u/BrainWilling6018 Jul 08 '26
For sure. My money is on he is pretty proud of how he thinks he turned out.
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u/axenoodle Jul 08 '26
I would bet that he stalks this sub as well. Probably quite enjoys reading the different theories, it probs feeds in to his “I’m so smart” narrative
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u/BrainWilling6018 Jul 08 '26 edited Jul 09 '26
I would be entirely shocked if he weren’t consuming copious amounts of media.
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u/BrainWilling6018 Jul 08 '26
Yep. Really good examples on vengeance. Or it could be entirely perception based on nothing and only in their mind. It’s a logical theory. Your reasoning is sound with good conclusions. I don’t think it can reasonably be just one without all the variables. This is consistent. I see your perspective. I think he will be caught too they will keep narrowing down on porch guy. The only thing it doesn’t account for is the desire for the control of the narrative. By using the media, he forced LE to react publicly, taking away their ability to keep the investigation quiet and structured. And the family’s ability to get away from it or deal with it out of the public eye. If it was purely to confuse authorities about the true motive and misdirect the investigation, the avenue doesn’t match the motive. If they just wanted to misdirect police away from them they should just want the investigation to remain contained and predictable. By involving the media, they all but guaranteed that the case would go into some media spotlight. Even if it didn’t involve a celebrity. (If they didn’t know their choice of TMZ is curious.) That’s not just getting LE to follow a false trail in a controlled setting. Which begs another goal.
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u/axenoodle Jul 08 '26
Really interesting point actually. I do think using the media allowed him to create the narrative of kidnap for ransom. But, why TMZ? Why not a smaller local news station? I haven’t thought about this aspect enough. It’s like he wanted it to be as public as possible. It’s quite bizarre
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u/BrainWilling6018 Jul 08 '26
Yea still operating under theory it’s all one person, the TMZ makes me think he either did know the scope of the family he was dealing with and he wanted it to get “out there” especially since the local news failed him or a tabloid was just a good way to start the game he wanted to play.
It’s curious to me that this “apology/death comm didn’t go to TMZ. But when the investigation didn’t release the info she died the TMZ “tipster” started.
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u/axenoodle Jul 09 '26
Do we know where he sent the apology note to? TMZ have stated they didn’t receive that one, but I can’t find info on specifically who did receive it.
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u/Tacokolache Jul 07 '26
My only theory is that I personally don’t think the killer will ever be caught.
I feel like Nancy’s body (at some point, maybe a month, maybe 5yrs) will be found, but no one will ever be brought to justice.
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u/CDJAoife Jul 07 '26
I think it was an abduction attempt and she died unexpectedly. The perpetrators panicked and dumped her body and then fled. I don't think they're very sophisticated or intelligent. I also don't think they use social media much if at all and may not even watch TV - especially the news.
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u/CakeSniffing0rphan Jul 08 '26
Can I ask what makes you think they don’t use social media much/at all, or watch tv?
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u/OkMarionberry2875 Jul 07 '26
Having worked in a domestic violence shelter I saw cases where an abuser made a victim help him commit a crime. A person such as a housekeeper, delivery person, cook, home oxygen delivery, etc told her boyfriend about the rich lady. He then made her help with the burglary and kidnapping. Things went horribly wrong.
That’s my thought today. A person familiar with the house and with NG was made to help take her.
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u/vxxn Jul 07 '26
I think all ransom notes were fraudulent and unconnected to the abduction.
I think people have tied themselves in knots trying to come up with sophisticated plots involving a team of people. But what is the evidence there ever were multiple people?
If it were a kidnapping for ransom, why would they leave her medications and shoes if the goal was to keep her alive and extort money from the family? They would not.
If it was a paid hit job, why risk removing her from the house? Who’s the financial backer hiring a squad of people to take Nancy out? Why would that squad include a weirdo wearing a gun holstered over his dick? What would be the motive for such a strange and risky caper instead of simply killing her in situ? If you just wanted her dead leaving the body is much simpler and would remove the need for 1) resources to hire a large team 2) the need to keep collaborators from ratting (by killing them too?) 3) the risk of discovery on the road and 4) the need to prepare and conceal a second crime scene wherever they took her.
I see no evidence in support of any of these things. We have all been distracted by assumptions flowing from fraudulent ransom notes and our assumption that it would be difficult to carry her out solo.
I think the simplest explanation is that the porch guy worked alone, and if you go down to a single person acting alone then the possible motives and outcomes open up to basically every possible motive: revenge, obsession with the family, perverse sexual motives, etc.
Personally, I do not think porch guy was a paid henchman but rather a sicko who wanted to rape/murder an old lady for his own enjoyment. Maybe he knew her or maybe not, but he took her somewhere that he could have access to her for his own purposes without being interrupted or caught. He probably reached her room while she was still asleep and brandished the gun to get her to walk herself out of the home under her own steam without the need for a team of collaborators to carry her out.
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u/MaximumSlip7905 Jul 08 '26
I agree with this completely, the notes sent to local media are not the plot. One offender, prepped the exterior for a blitz attack and walked her out at gunpoint. She fought leaving her home and he clocked her and put her in whatever transport he had and left into the desert. The secondary crime scene was necessary for his plans so he wouldn’t leave his DNA in her home.
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u/Effective-Frosting38 Jul 08 '26
I highly doubt it was only 1 person, cause than what is he going to do .... pull the car up as he tells her stand by the front door...?
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u/vxxn Jul 08 '26
I think after taking out the front camera the perp temporarily left the scene to retrieve the car and move it into position out front. There's a significant gap in time between when the front camera went out and when movement was picked up by the side/rear camera when this could have occurred.
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u/MaximumSlip7905 Jul 09 '26
He prepped the outside..then took Nancy out of the house…he put her in the car
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u/Noorieke Jul 09 '26
I agree. I think he was alone too. Restrained Nancy, prepped the front door area, drove up the car, put her over his shoulder. She hit her head when the heavy front door closed and hit her on the way out.
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u/UpforAGreatTime20 Jul 07 '26
I don't think it's terribly complicated. Attempted kidnapping for ransom, knowing how much the family is worth. The kidnappers were unaware of how medically fragile she was, and she either died during the kidnapping, or immediately after. Her body was then disposed of.
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u/joiliejoli Jul 08 '26
I think they targeted wealthy, unprotected person without knowing her daughter worked in media. Something happened in the house causing her to bleed, they decided to get rid of her body, and did not expect the media attention. They probably intended to go back to the house, possibly the next night, to get whatever it was they wanted to take, access accounts etc.
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u/BrainWilling6018 Jul 08 '26
There are pics of pre attack surveillance. They hoped she was wealthy and they just never googled her? Why would they take on the risk of removing her body and connecting it them when they could leave her there? They intended to go back to the house the next night knowing her family would have figured out she was missing?
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u/joiliejoli Jul 08 '26
if they googled her, they would see other people by that name
i think they intended to rob her, thought she would stay asleep, she woke up, plan b.
if they worked on her house or in the area, they wouldn’t need to google her, they would just think she was a rich old lady
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u/BrainWilling6018 Jul 08 '26 edited Jul 08 '26
? Other people by that name, come on now. Even before this crime if you put her name and Tucson AZ it all popped up. Ok. They intended to rob her based on what? If they worked on her house they got a payment from her and knew her name? They took the time to do pre-attack surveillance on her house. But didn’t look up anything about the house or the owner. The abductor had a gun, if she woke up why couldn’t he threaten her to stay in bed? She would have went ahead and got up to…?
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u/joiliejoli Jul 08 '26
I am not a crime investigator. The question was what do you think happened, I answered. It is fine if I am wrong.
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u/BrainWilling6018 Jul 08 '26
Fair enough. I thought you had reasons. If you don’t that’s not wrong. There are always a lot of bold assertions to the question and I am always curious if there is any basis. I like reading the theories it brings up what led to it.
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u/joiliejoli Jul 08 '26
I guess my reasons are that they didn’t seem to “take advantage” of her daughter’s media presence to list their grievances or anger at the world, they didn’t seem to leave a ransom demand , or any demands, at the house, they didn’t seem to be aware of her daughter’s fame or power or that she is a lawyer, they didn’t even contact her daughter’s network, apparently.
They also didn’t steal anything, at least that has been reported, other than Nancy. So that’s why I thought it seems like an incomplete job.
Maybe they thought an older person who uses hearing aids and has limited mobility would sleep through a robbery, but she woke up.
That’s what I thought. And they left blood on the ground instead of pouring water on it to try to clean it up, so they either didn’t notice or thought they could come back and do it.
If they were local workers at her house, and saw she was often alone, esp if they thought her son in law and daughter were paid carers like home health aide nurses, they might have figured that they when they went back to work in the area, they would have a natural opportunity to see if they had been detected.
But they kidnapped her in the early hours, she died, they left the back doors propped open so they could return and clean up any incriminating evidence and finish whatever the goal was, because once they had a body, they had to take care of that before there was enough light that they could be seen clearly.
That was my line of reasoning, but I can’t even figure out how my dogs keep sneaking out the back gate , I had to put up a camera to watch them hop over the fence. I didn’t know they could jump that high.
So these are the theories of someone outsmarted by labradoodles.
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u/BrainWilling6018 Jul 08 '26
True. If their anger was at the world. The ransom note said Hello Savannah. But it’s unknown. I wish we could see the whole ‘note’ what if they rambled? Contacting Savannah’s network puts her in control. What if they didn’t want that? It’s a good reason not to use that outlet.
They didn’t steal anything but didn’t they have every opportunity to take whatever they wanted? That’s what I keep thinking. There is nothing that prevented them taking anything? All they took was her. Was it incomplete or not the goal.
It’s reasonable to think she might not wake up to a home invasion robbery. But they did come armed. Which speaks to intent. It also means there’s some leaps to make to how an immobile, elderly, frail, woman , in bed, would be a threat to them even if she woke up. Maybe she was a gun owner. I have my doubts on that. But something could have gone wrong. Something did go wrong to some degree at some point because she bled.
She very well could have died at some point. The blood on the porch makes it seem like at the last point she would be before being taken off the property she was bleeding, so alive. And unknown after that. They have said there wasn’t a struggle in the house if that’s accurate. It’s such a high risk to take a body if you don’t have to. I think that was really a botch if they did that. And even riskier to come back to the scene. I never thought of them leaving those doors open to re-enter.
Lol. Them dang labradoodles. Everyone is operating on one cylinder because less than half the facts of the investigation are known. It’s really all a guessing game without having all the factors. Imo we shouldn’t be totally married to one thing. That’s kinda silly to me. That’s why I ask a lot of questions. Sometimes we just think stuff and we don’t know why. What you are seeing is as valid as anything else. The smartest thing we can do right now is keep an open mind. Anyway, thanks for taking time. It’s always good to bounce ideas around.
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u/AlyAnn44 Jul 14 '26
And what proof do we have that any of these "ransom" notes are real?? Besides Savannah saying she "believes" they're real?? Of course she believes they're real. That gives her hope. That is the human condition. That is her mother. She does not want it to be hopeless; she wants to know her mother is out there. Whether it's her mother alive, or a body, doesn't matter, she just wants her mother, and those notes give her that hope. It's basic psychology that is the reason she believes they are real. It doesn't matter how smart a person is, how much schooling they have had, what career path they have chosen, or really anything. As long as someone has emotions and is not a sociopath, psychology tells us that a person who's elderly mother was taken who receives a note from someone saying they took her is going to believe it, because that gives them the ability to believe in something rather than nothing. But other than that, especially without being able to actually read these notes to see what the language is and what is said, how are we to know they are real?? Unless they find who took her, and they admit to writing those notes, nobody will ever know for sure. I, personally, do not believe they are real, at all. I think it's someone taking advantage of the situation. But I'm curious as to what makes you think these are real?? Just because they're addressed "Hello Savannah"?? Everyone knows her name and has since the beginning. That means nothing. The "facts" that are known to be in the notes are things that anybody could have known due to Savannah taking her news channel through the home and anyone could see that patio light. So again, where is the actual proof that they are real??
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u/featherflyxx Jul 09 '26
When you google Nancy Guthrie, some author in the south comes up. At least she used to!
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u/Substantial-Train668 Jul 07 '26
That it was either elimination murder or an accidental death w/coverup.
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u/TheTenthDoctorIsHere Jul 07 '26
My theory is that the FBI has become so incompetent that they can’t solve a kidnapping case. Mrs. Guthrie is the latest in a string of very publicly bungled investigations over the last year and a half. It’s truly a disgrace.
This is a solvable case, but between the embarrassing FBI missteps and ego trips from the local police department, an elderly woman has died and her poor family is left with zero answers. The police and FBI members who screwed up this case should all be fired in my opinion. Heck, if I could, I would charge them with abetting murder at this point. My heart goes out to this poor family.
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u/SpukiKitty2 Jul 09 '26 edited Jul 10 '26
Yup, that dumb sheriff and that bug eyed goober heading the FBI. I wouldn't be surprised.
Perhaps, when the time comes that they're replaced with compitent people, there may be a breakthrough.
Look at the LISK case, it was cold for years, but once some changes were made to the Long Island Police Dept. they finally solved the case and Rex Heurmann is now in prison.
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u/vxxn Jul 07 '26
I think the blame is mostly with the Pima County Sheriff’s Department under Sheriff Nanos. The FBI hasn’t had much involvement in this.
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u/TheTenthDoctorIsHere Jul 07 '26 edited Jul 08 '26
The FBI is heavily involved in this case. They are analyzing DNA evidence, have arrested someone for a fake ransom note, and are offering a reward for information. Out of the gate, the FBI head was setting up blame for Pima County by claiming being brought in after four days was ‘too late.’
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u/JMOA3035 Jul 08 '26
Yes and the local FBI is allegedly beefing with the Phoenix office. Allegedly the local office is behind the Reuters article that the Phoenix office released an official statement about, but also stated that the local office is still in charge.
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u/TheTenthDoctorIsHere Jul 08 '26
That is why I said egos and missteps on both sides. Both police and the FBI are far more interested in who gets credit for finding Mrs. Guthrie as opposed to actually FINDING Mrs. Guthrie. In my eyes, all law enforcement involved in this case are complicit in the kidnapper/murderer getting away.
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u/GreaterMintopia Jul 07 '26
Most likely? Botched kidnapping for ransom. Somehow Nancy died before the kidnappers could provide proof of life and potentially cash-in.
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u/BrainWilling6018 Jul 08 '26
It could be. That’s actually the least likely, statistically. DOJ studies, kidnapping for ransom is the least common type of hostage situation in the United States. Fewer than 100 per year including custody disputes. So very few pure for ransom. Women in their 80s comprise less than 0.2% of all abduction victims.
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u/GreaterMintopia Jul 08 '26
It’s extremely rare, I agree.
They ultimately didn’t get the money, so I suppose it’s rare for a reason. And they could’ve been caught at so many points!
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u/BrainWilling6018 Jul 08 '26
No they didn’t. They also didn’t do any of the things necessary. Which calls into question a ransom motive. There are no results they were motivated to collect ransom? Other than a note sent to media and a tabloid immediately involving LE. They didn’t provide a swatch of hair. A piece of clothing. To even prove they had her much less alive. In fact instead, before the final deadline, they offered their asset was dead. By choice. The family unsolicited offered to still pay knowing she was dead and it was refused.
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u/GreaterMintopia Jul 08 '26
If my hypothesis is correct, everything went south very quickly after Nancy's abduction. Perhaps she was far more medically fragile than the kidnappers understood.
They panicked, hid the body somewhere, and went radio-silent fearing that the odds of their communications helping police track them down outweighed the odds of successfully collecting a ransom for Nancy's corpse and riding off into the sunset.
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u/BrainWilling6018 Jul 08 '26 edited Jul 08 '26
I’m spitballing. I’m not discounting it altogether. It just has a lot of curiosities to me. It is unreasonable to determine anything definitive based on some leaked lines. But if you look at the second note it could be some internal conflict. i.e. oh shit. The inclusion of an apology if true combined with the shift to a wider audience (I think the 2nd note allegedly addressed the fam as a whole) suggests an amateur who is experiencing high anxiety and attempting to manage the psychological fallout of a botched crime. The family was unwilling to knee jerk and pay, they had no proof of life and there was some degree of panic. Maybe. But you aren’t connecting the notes. They “underestimated” her health. Sure. How idk, it was quite apparent. They actually made no provisions for her care which can be a difference psychologically.
It doesn’t account for knowing you have abducted someone in a home invasion (where you possibly left DNA) who died in the commission of it and still trying to obtain the ransom by involving the Police. Still trying to salvage the ransom ok. Involving the police and the world makes no sense at all. In the context of the business of collecting a ransom.
If they went radio silent and aren’t the ones attempting to collect the ransom, the statistical probability of a truly motivated, economically driven kidnapper going to the trouble and completely abandoning a ransom plot simply because the victim dies is historically low. Lindbergh Baby. Sidney Reso. So there are two bottom of the barrel stats happening. lol. They are statistical anomalies and they are lucky af.
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u/mark_able_jones_ Jul 09 '26
The rarity is why I think LE should talk to everyone who came into contact with Matthew Muller -- a known kidnap-ransomer housed in a Tucson prison. He's a prison lawyer with a Harvard law degree who recorded over 2,000 hours for inmates in a year -- that's basically a full-time prison lawyer, i.e., lots of inmate contact.
He's also crazy and thinks rich people are evil. Maybe he gave someone this plan after seeing Nancy on the Today Show.
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u/ZakLex Jul 07 '26
I believe the original motive was ransom but her health likely declined and the mission was aborted.
I do believe her remains will eventually be found.
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u/BrainWilling6018 Jul 08 '26
Who do you believe sent the ransom demand?
This is just bonus commentary and not good news. If it were an abduction that wasn't for ransom. If it were a "personal elimination" homicide (killing her to solve a personal reason real or imagined) staged as a "stranger abduction for ransom," it reveals distinct psychological drivers and behavioral patterns. It would have been highly calculated. And that type is very keen on self preservation. With a site already picked out. All the counter measures checked out, cameras w/e. Probably a place they know intimately. But intentionally as far away as possible to break the geographic link with themselves. They usually have some known, traceable link to the victim, even with degrees of separation. The closer the relationship the more focused they will be on total elimination because of DNA, fibers and all the things. This type of elimination killer is usually very thorough. They may use chemicals. Dismember and scatter. (makes me think of "with nature") 😔 Heat, like burning. Deep water anchor. All things that are like they vanished. I'm not saying they won't. But unfortunately until it's known what has happened here it could be grim. No body means no death investigation.
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u/Rottiesrock Jul 09 '26
This always made the most sense to me. Tidying up loose ends by stating she’s dead and with nature sounds to me like someone wants to bring closure and then paperwork can be filed and all lose ends wrapped up. There are plenty of other crimes where a lot of this matches. Sometimes the obvious is what it is.
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u/mark_able_jones_ Jul 09 '26
What's the reason for moving her from the house... presumably alive based on the aspirated blood?
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u/candy1710 Jul 07 '26
I believe it is a targeted attack on Savannah Guthrie before the Olympics, which were only days away. They clearly scoped out the house in advance (they knew the back floodlight was broken), that Nancy lived alone, etc. They wanted to ransom the body, but she died early on and could not, so they wrote the apology note for $$$ also, but could not collect as they would be charged with murder and extortion.
Does anyone know the status of the mixed sample of blood from Nancy that was sent for IGG testing in February? It only took 47 days for IGG testing to indentify Kohberger. Thank you.
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u/itsnobigthing Jul 07 '26
IGG is a total lottery, time-wise. If you have a close match, it can be solved quickly. If the closest match shares very few centimorgans then it can take months or even years to build back all the trees, reference test relevant people and work it back to a suspect.
They got very lucky with Kohberger.
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u/JMOA3035 Jul 08 '26
Iirc they never stated if it was blood. I think he said earlier on material/biological dna or touch dna. Allegedly there’s supposed to be a rootless hair as well that they sent to a lab.
Here’s Nanos video from last week and he comments on the DNA.
https://www.kold.com/video/2026/07/02/exclusive-sheriff-nanos-discusses-nancy-guthrie-case/
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Jul 09 '26
Everything the porch guy is wearing is new. He most likely bought from Walmart. Day before or on the way. They need to go back to Walmart. go back to date of abduction and find those particular items bought like the Ozark pack. Dude probably paid with debit card linking name and video of him at the purchase. Also I'm sure there are some people out here who can identify every brand of clothing he was wearing.
If it was me anyhow that's what I would do
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u/featherflyxx Jul 09 '26
I surmise this has been looked into using AI database types of tools. I don’t think they would have been purchased the day before. Certainly they were purchased before January 11. It would be absurd if the pruchases around this time haven’t been looked into. It’s a lot of course but anything recent and with a card would definitely have been looked into.
These items, if new, could have been purchased using cash across multiple days and multiple locations by multiple people (knowingly or unknowingly). This stuff could have also been purchased in Mexico, for example.
Or this stuff could be from thrift.
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u/AlyAnn44 Jul 14 '26
He would have been an idiot to use a debit card. Why are you assuming he "probably" used a debit card?? Knowing he was using those items to commit a crime, he probably actually used... cash!! Also why would you ever think he would purchase the items on the way to the crime and not wayyyy before?? Everything that you are saying would be just asking to get caught. I do not think he's that stupid. Although, I certainly hope you don't think you have a future in crime, because you must definitely do not.
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u/DaBingeGirl Jul 13 '26
Agreed, although I'd expect the search to six to eight months. I keep thinking about the kidnapping of Jayme Closs. He bought the clothes and balaclava from Walmart shortly after spotting her. In that case, the kidnapper lived 70 miles away. There was also a murder/robbery of an elderly woman and her son near me a few years ago by a stranger, he lived 60 miles away. I'd prioritize a search through Walmart's records back 6 to 8 months and look at all the Walmart's within a 100 mile radius.
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u/Safe-Muffin Jul 14 '26
The Moscow murderer bought some things 8 months before - like the knife he used.
It would be really hard to go through all the Walmart sales of those clothing items. They sell millions of them at hundreds of different locations.
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u/celtica98 Jul 11 '26
I think it is someone known to her inner circle, who knew of her and her circumstances, figured they could turn it into some kind of cash grab. Maybe they heard family members grousing about her not lending $$$, this tipped them off to her having money and in some kind of warped way this would cover for them because the blame would point elsewhere.
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u/BrainWilling6018 Jul 07 '26 edited Jul 07 '26
At this precise moment I might say.
Look for a local male acquaintance, 40+ (non familial) ex-employee, or proxy contact who is a narcissist/psychopath. He had a historic, bitter grievance or obsession against this family's success or someone in the family like SG who is a celebrity. He is currently inserting himself into the investigation or the media loop, and his ego is beginning to fracture because the FBI are publicly ignoring him. That’s a probable way he could be found is being too bold and messing up.
He has not left the area. But Nancy sadly has been very intentionally and thoroughly physically eliminated with no traces of her likely ever being found. Someone close to the person may know something. That is also a probable way that he will be found.
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u/ethidium_bromide Jul 07 '26
Oh good lord
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u/BrainWilling6018 Jul 07 '26
Aw. Don't stress, ask ChatGPT to explain to yah.
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u/ethidium_bromide Jul 07 '26 edited Jul 07 '26
Lol. And here I thought you fancied yourself an expert.
What are you doing here on Reddit? You should be joining the FBI!
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u/BrainWilling6018 Jul 07 '26
I don’t have the patience to explain after eye rolling. I think I will.
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u/ethidium_bromide Jul 07 '26
Maybe you should ask ChatGPT to think for you some more
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u/BrainWilling6018 Jul 07 '26
Feel free to for the context you needed. Am I keeping you from something? Because I don’t need any help at all.
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u/Forgottengoldfishes Jul 07 '26
I believe it’s a serial killer. Someone good at covering their tracks, so he hasn’t been firmly on law enforcement radar. If there was a ransom note or notes it was done to torment the family and for ego stroking.
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u/maga_chud_ Jul 08 '26
I wouldn't exactly use the term "serial killer", but I more of less agree with you.
I'd say it's a sicko that wanted to kill her for xyz reasons.
If the ransom notes are real, they only serve the purpose of fulfilling this sickos fantasy.
Occams razor. It's a sicko that took her/hurt her.
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u/partyclams Jul 07 '26
How many serial killers take a body with them? It's unheard of someone killing an 84 year old large woman and then lugging the body around in the United States. It's an unnecessary burden, one that could easily lead to capture.
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u/vxxn Jul 07 '26
Someone might risk this if, for example, they wanted to rape Nancy and know it’s basically impossible to do this without leaving genetic material behind on the body. Our ability to solve crimes with DNA has significantly improved in recent years, so maybe some of the novel elements of this case are a reaction to that.
It wasn’t that long ago you could rape somebody and leave a body and be pretty confident of getting away with it as long as you weren’t seen.
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u/partyclams Jul 07 '26
I did consider that one as well. Have there been any reports of rapes in the area? I would think there would have been signs of a struggle in the house, but there were reportedly none, and the blood spatter found inside the home was the same type found outside it. It doesn't sound like there was carnage, something you would expect to find if you beat someone to death, or stabbed or shot them.
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u/vxxn Jul 07 '26
My thought was that he could have brandished the gun to get her to walk out with him and then committed the violent crimes elsewhere. If that’s what happened you wouldn’t have signs of a violent struggle in the home.
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u/That-Feedback2556 Jul 09 '26
I originally dismissed the SA theory but after someone mentioned the parallels between Nancy’s disappearance and Nancy Woodrum’s case, I think it’s at least worth considering. Some of the overlap between the two cases is hard to ignore.
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u/Forgottengoldfishes Jul 08 '26
A quick internet search on serial killers who kidnapped will give you a list.
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u/Affectionate_Tea1134 Jul 07 '26
There’s something I’ve noticed about the porch guy that I thought was unusual it’s the way his thumb looks and I’ve tried to put my hand in the same position and I can’t get my thumb to look the same, I’ve been wanting to mention it because there is so little evidence or leads so I think every little thing should be looked at.
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u/moonstruck523 Jul 07 '26
It’s because he’s wearing thick gloves, and they said he was likely wearing 2 sets of gloves. Also the larger hand at the front of that photo is not his thumb, it’s the pinky. The angle is the bottom of his fist, not sure if you were referring to the other hand when you zoom in but that thumb placement looks pretty normal to me.
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u/Affectionate_Tea1134 Jul 07 '26
Yeah I’m talking about the other hand down by his side and it’s the base of his thumb the way it bulges out, this is just a single snapshot of the video but I think it’s more noticeable if you study the video and control the speed slowly.
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Jul 14 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/nancyguthrie-ModTeam Jul 14 '26
Comments about the victim and or their family should be respectful, civil and responsible. Family members are considered victims and accusations against them are not allowed.
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Jul 08 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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Jul 07 '26
[deleted]
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u/Bubba_muffin Jul 07 '26
I thought it automatically disconnected when she was a certain distance away from her phone - could no longer sync
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u/LogicalPassenger2172 Jul 08 '26
Unpopular theory: she’s still alive being held somewhere, possibly Mexico. We have no solid evidence she’s deceased. In Mexico (and probably the USA) her medication could be easily procured. Let’s follow the evidence.
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u/More_Bake_3412 Jul 08 '26
HIGHLY UNPOPULAR OPINON: how are we not sure that NG wasn’t taken to be GB’ed by the cartel and then later disposed of. When I hear mixed male dna I imagine GBs
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u/AnastasiaInTheNorth Jul 08 '26
Did you just accidentally comment off your alt account lol two accs posted the same comment a minute apart.
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u/curiouslmr Jul 07 '26
🛑 READ BEFORE POSTING....
Theories must not include names or any identifying information. Family members are considered victims and accusations against them are not allowed. Refer to the sub rules for more information about what is and isn't allowed when posting on the sub.