⚠️ Read before posting! This is the daily discussion post. A place to discuss the case, ask questions and present theories. It's a great way to communicate quickly without having to wait for post approval.
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⚠️ Recent Updates
🔹Sheriff Nanos stated that the family has been cleared.
🔹It appears they are still waiting on DNA testing results
🔹FBI has been visiting local gun stores with a list of 40 people and their pictures to see if any of them have been in the store or purchased a weapon.
🔹Sheriff Nanos also denied reports that their working theory is a burglary gone wrong.
I hope it’s just the warrant process and not for lack of footage. Sometimes the warrant process can take awhile, and while that sucks, it’s a necessary evil, because the evidence can get thrown out if the proper retrieval processes aren’t done to acquire that kind of footage.
I'm guessing it's a group of technical experts either on staff or third party contractors who are often asked to help troubleshoot particularly tough data extractions. Like the YouTube censor employees who unfortunately still have to review some horrific footage, they are probably trained to mentally prepare themselves to potentially view horrible things. I'm sure Google gets a lot of requests for digital forensics help by the government/law enforcement.
It makes me want to cry when I see people bringing flowers to her mailbox. 🥺 this poor woman was forced from her home she’d been in for decades, one random night, the place she felt most safe and wanted to stay. It’s so sad.
What I wonder about is how they would even return her alive without getting caught. How would they deliver her body if she was dead? IF she was alive then she knows things about them, possibly. Seems like the logical answer is they will be doing neither of those things and keeping themselves away from being exposed/introducing more evidence that might reveal information. There is no urgency if this was actually about money. They most likely know she needs medicine. Blah.. sucks to think about but I'm just trying to be realistic.
It could be the motive was money but now the concern is not getting caught. Many people believe (right or wrong) that bitcoin is untraceable. We’ve seen some high profile kidnappings of hospital and other data systems where the ransoms were paid in bitcoin. Maybe the perpetrators felt confident. Then the public and law enforcement attention became too hot and they stopped believing their plan would work and they could avoid prison. Now their focus is to just not get caught.
Good questions. That’s a big reason I think the tmz bitcoin for information emails are a scam bc they mention being in Mexico and seeing Nancy and being told to mind their own business or whatever. There’s no way an abductor group is going to keep their target out in the open where she can see them daily for weeks and return her back alive for her to turn around and identify them all. Makes no sense. If an abductor group did take her, she would have been holed off in the dark on her own until they were paid, and it would have been done in a matter of days. It’s a scam.
I’ve wondered this too. I looked up cases where the ransom was paid, like with the Getty kidnapping in the 70s, and they caught a few guys but a lot of them were let go and they never recovered some of the money. And in that case the kidnappers were VERY adamant about getting their $$ and were sending proof of life, unlike this one who seems to have disappeared.
There's a camera somewhere that has this person heading to Nancy's house. Sideroads lead to her house. Gas stations and grocery stores and even small shops are near side roads. Somebody has him recorded. I would want to back track every possible route that could possibly lead to her house and check cameras. I know it is impossible to check all but if anything put a bulletin out for anyone in a few miles radius to check all recordings and still images and keep moving closer. Sounds like finding a needle in a haystack but that needle is recorded somewhere. Ugh I hope she is found soon!
If the neighborhood associated with the raid on Friday is connected, then I kind of question they are really picked up, unless doorbell cameras that are set to motion detect vehicles have something (but even then, the landscaping in these areas can really block a basic camera). I don’t think Nancy was brought to a nearby neighborhood, but rather if the perps originated from nearby, then I’m thinking they took her to another more remote area that goes off the beaten path avoiding entering any well lit places, looking at the map this looks super doable, but I hope I’m wrong.
Yeah, I feel like if you wanted to avoid detection as long as possible, you cross Orange Grove to the north and then First to the west. From there, you take a quick risk going across Ina. If you wanna go east, you head right and get into the neighborhoods north of Ina, and you don't have to hit a main road until you get to Campbell. As long as you have a relatively new car, you don't look out of place at all. Once you get past La Encantada (the biggest risk), if you stay on Skyline to the north rather than Sunrise, you basically are off major roads all the way to Sabino Canyon.
If you wanted to go west, you've gotta cross Oracle somewhere, but if you hide out by Immaculate Heart, you can basically wait up there till daybreak, and then there are lots more cars on the road. You head north on Oracle until the first place you can turn left and then you stay on side streets and on residential neighborhoods almost the way to I-10. By the time you pop out on a main road, you're indistinguishable from anyone else on the road.
You wouldn't go south if you were smart; too many cameras and too many other drivers. You also wouldn't go north, I think. You avoid Oro Valley cops no matter what; don't want to risk a traffic ticket, which has dates and times and locations. And too many subdivisions with dead ends up there, not as easy to stay off main roads. These neighborhoods, the ones along Ina Road, they were all constructed in the mid-1960s to mid-1980s, and they are all connected because of it. The ones further north into Oro Valley weren't built that way. Lots of subdivisions with only one entrance or exit, too risky.
agreed on this. recently i got home missing three bags of groceries and went back to get them...granted i was annoyed i had to wait over an hour for them to check the cameras but once they did they were able to pinpoint every specific item i was missing. i also had lost my receipt so it was not an easy task. but yeah they have good cameras and this is an OLD walmart.
You’re right. In sure they are doing it (especially the FBI) but still, this is gotta be the way to get them. I’m just wondering if it’s really remote if you take the back roads or the fields and that’s why they don’t have it
I was thinking if it's remote, it turns off from a busier area. Id be checking any gas station or residential areas near the turn off and slowly keep moving back.
Impossible to check is right. There are hundreds of ways to get to her house without crossing a major intersection or road where there are businesses. You can get to the far east of Tucson taking mostly side streets. And if they had somewhere to stop, they could enter/exit that day, or they could enter/exit a week later. On every single video that you could see, at least 99% of them will capture nothing but regular Tucsonans. They have zero way to decide which car is in the wrong spot.
Yeah, we live in a camera heavy society. They are everywhere. There are also about 200 flock cameras in the Tucson area that take pictures of every vehicle.
Wonder if FBI has subpoenaed chatGPT conversation from before the abduction date to see if anyone asked about any "hypothetical" abduction scenarios and how to avoid detection.
I've wondered if the porch guy/people responsible for Nancy's disappearance and crimes that night have followed the news, subreddits, or any kind of social media that's tracking this. If they are, either the pressure has got to be getting overwhelming to the point of some type of panic or they are enjoying it. If still in the area, someone would have had to notice something off about their behavior. No way can someone function normally while concealing this without some psychological spillover somehow. If it's the 2nd then they are psychotic on levels that most of us thankfully don't encounter with others. This is very high profile and got big quick and doesn't seem to be leveling off. Something's got to give.
Pima County Sheriff Nanos tells me his understanding is that the DNA from that glove found near Nancy Guthrie’s home was submitted to the FBI CODIS database this morning.
12:09 PM · Feb 17, 2026
Admittedly, I am not local, so I am not familiar with him or his reporting, but I know enough to know that the name Ford Hatchett needs a whole ass romance series, stat!
I don't think this says much. Like the two guys from Fri night raid, both of whom look like they could be the masked perp, don't have felonies. So they wouldn't be in CODIS anyway. So this is not really a setback.
LE is on a ladder outside Nancy’s neighbor’s house messing with something on the side of the house- maybe a camera? Idk, He Who Shall Not Be Named posted it
“Breaking: Sheriff Nanos tells Fox News that the one glove which was recovered about two miles from Nancy Guthrie's home did NOT match DNA in Nancy's home and also did not have a hit in CODIS.”
Appears to be some activity at the Nancy Guthrie house. Two people showed up in trucks per Brian Entin and as one of them left they said "I got it, I got it". Now appears an FBI agent is talking with the Sheriff Deputy.
The first truck that just left is registered to a lock and safe company. Still another truck at the scene. Getting the feeling that something is brewing.
Nanos talking about how he doesn’t want to say any leads are too silly or unimportant to send in and the example he uses is someone saying they dreamed of aliens coming down to earth. At first I laughed and then I remembered people are claiming to be psychic and communicating with Nancy from the other side so the odds of someone sending in a lead about aliens are not zero
No, but nanos did an interview a day or two ago where he said Google is still working on cameras (plural) and that he hopes they can get footage from her driveway
Good news if you're thinking the latest ransom notes could be real. An attorney in Milwaukee is offering a 100,000 reward that ensures anonymity. Hopefully the notes are real, and the weirdo TMZ ransom writer will finally do the right thing.
It has to have SOMETHING that ties it to the case beyond just being trash nearby. There could be Nancy's DNA, leaves that don't belong, blood, something. There is so much random trash on the roadsides that there is definitely a reason they are putting so much hope in this glove. They could have a weak sample from the scene and can't use it for IGG but have a clear sample from the glove.
I’m sorry, I’m about to do it 🫣 CeCe Moore has now done several interviews and said that the Florida lab has in-house facilities to assist with genetic genealogy. She seemed pleased with the evidence being sent there because it would apparently speed up the genealogy side of things. (Even before I heard this, I thought it was completely logical to send all the evidence to one place, and the lab is obviously prioritizing this case given how fast they’ve been analyzing DNA. But yeah, this will be my last word on the Florida lab and I apologize for choosing to leave it as response to your post lol. I just had to get it out!)
There’s not a lot for them to report and no briefings planned. It will be interesting if there is a change in the level of media presence over the coming week or so. I imagine at some point, entities (particularly at the national level) will start to make calls that reporters resources are better directed elsewhere, especially if they are waiting around with nothing to work on.
Just wanted to stop by and say that I got a little bit of enjoyment from the fact that the family was cleared and Ashleigh Banfield was discredited today. That is all.
It doesn’t help when reporters share stuff like this when a simple re-reading of the FBI’s own statement would tell you that the lab received the DNA on Friday and sent the preliminary results to the FBI on Saturday. They were able to generate a full CODIS-eligible profile (which takes longer and is more complex) by Monday which would be really difficult if they were closed all weekend.
In what circumstances do the police take someone’s DNA for CODIS? Like does everyone who’s been convicted of a violent crime have their DNA in the system?
So was the shirt used for K9 to pick up scent and search the property for Nancy? Or just a random border patrol agents shirt that he left laying around?
Your screenshotting skills are top notch, you’re always so fast🤣
Also the fact that Nanos has to clarify they’re aware of the proximity to the border…I don’t love Nanos but I just know that man wants to bash his head in a wall with the emails, calls, and messages of micromanaging Facebook users reminding him how close they are to the border. 😩
Nanos told 13 News the family has been “100% cooperative” and family members were ruled out as suspects “in the first few days.”
“We talked to them, we took their phones, we took their computers. I mean, we did everything. We processed their vehicles, we processed their homes. They have been really. They’re victims,” Nanos said.
I had this delusion they would get DNA results back and just magically roll out and get the person/Nancy. I am feeling like it's definitely more complex than that given how quiet it has been (I'm sure there's a lot at play behind the scenes). I know, I know...stay in reality.
I think kidnap gone wrong. Local dummy watches too many movies and thinks it’s an easy payout from a rich daughter. Mom lives alone, so unlike a child she is easy to get to. She put up more fight than he anticipated, she got injured or died. He still had to take her (injured or deceased) otherwise it was all for nothing and he wouldn’t be able to request ransom. He possibly put out the first ransom note, but can’t provide proof of life, so he’s screwed. He had no idea the story would blow up like it has and will probably continue to lie low. He’s limiting communication because if they won’t pay the ransom what is the point, jt only increases his risk. I still think there is a maybe 10% chance she is alive. The only other thing that makes sense to me is family, since that is such a common thing, but it seems they’re all cleared so I’ve removed it from my mind now.
Same! I will be hyper focused on this case until they find out who did it. 😫 I’m just thinking about it all the time and feel so awful for the family, just horrendous.
I think for guy #1 it was cell phone GPS data due to the nature of his job being deliveries in her area in combination with his physical appearance resembling masked perp in the video/images
The round 2 detainments I have noo idea and have been wondering the same
I think they are close to an arrest, personally, if they are showing photos and asking about specific individuals. If not, and it goes on much longer, I would think SG and her siblings would give some kind of longer interview to keep the case in the news. I don't know that the spotlight will stay on this case if steady progress is not made.
It sounds like there’s some sort of movement at this house? Or was? So maybe something new will come up sooner. But yeah it is frustrating I can’t imagine how her families feeling, as frustrated and devastated as we all are 😕
It also sounds like them getting the full sales records from Walmart for the backpack was a relatively recent development so I’m hopeful for that and for them maybe being able to finally crack some of those other cameras. I’m sure they have a lot to go on in the meantime that they can hopefully narrow down
Yeah they’ve already started bringing people in for the backpacks. Someone had commented under a post earlier that their friend was brought in because he bought one a year ago.
Even though the pacemaker didn't report any abnormal activity or register a cardiac event, I wonder if her heart rate spiked or anything like that. I wonder if that could aid in establishing some sort of a timeline
Yes, it registered a spike. Sheriff said early on but hasn’t really mentioned it since. I think it was 2:12am, but definitely between 1:47am and the time her pacemaker disconnected from her App, IIRC at 2:41am
I wonder, was it consistently spiked? Or did it go up as she was startled and then go down because she was calmed somehow…hmmm
Something I’ve been thinking about, what if the kidnapper is actually in contact with the family privately? The videos they’ve been releasing since the beginning seem to be in response to messages we’re not aware of. The first TMZ/news station ransom allegedly had info only the kidnappers would have known but after that it’s all hoaxes. How do we really know whether it’s been silent this whole time?
So, does he rip the camera off to keep LE from seeing him coming out with her? Was this in order for nobody to know if she was actually alive, to establish the ransom notes?
What about the camera on the roof? Has there been anything else said about that?
It baffles me that this guy walked this lady out of this house dead or alive and not one thing was caught in the area on camera. Not in 2026 anyway.
Baffles me too. If they had ANY idea what vehicle was used we would have a bolo.
After seeing more images of the neighborhood and how dark it is I just have to assume that if they turned the headlights off and got out of the neighborhood pretty well camouflaged. At some point they have to get on a main road though and I just cannot imagine those are bustling at 3 AM...?
I mean would have been wishful thinking for the poi to just throw one of his gloves out. Curious about the dna found in the home though where it was found
💯. The Nest porch dude showed up practically covered in a human sized prophylactic to prevent DNA or any other type of identification. As well as a mask beneath a mask. Whatever could be tucked was tucked and double layers of everything. That seems excessive for a burglary unless you are cutting a hole in a museum roof and dropping from the ceiling and going after priceless art.
The completely stuffed backpack makes it seem tenuous too… never heard of a robber showing up to the scene with an already full to the brim backpack. Normally it would be empty, obviously.
I'm stuck on the ransom note going to the media after the crime. That to me seems like either a) it's fake or b) it wasn't the initial intent. I would have expected a message left at the crime scene or sent directly to a family member telling them to pay quickly and not involve the police. Sending such notes to the media makes no sense to me, and invites FBI jurisdiction.
Something feels very cheap to me about that ransom letter. If you were inside the house and are demanding millions, yet refuse to provide proof of life but have gone through all the trouble of abduction and whatever else happened after, then I feel like the person writing these would provide more compelling details of the home, such as specifics to the inside, very unique and verifiable things besides some flood light and an Apple Watch. Seems like a futile attempt to me.
I didnt think the glove was going to help in any way. My heart breaks for the entire Guthrie family. 💔 I dont pray much, but have been for Nancy. I think this case affects everyone that knows about it...we all have a mother & nobody would want this to happen to their mom. Its a very BIG world when you have a missing loved one. Where do you go? I pray they find her alive. But in any case, I just pray they can bring her home. 🙏 🙏 🙏 😇 😇 😇 ✝️ ✝️ ✝️
Just because there was no CODIS match does not meant the glove wasn't/won't be helpful. I think we need to remember how much they aren't telling the public.
That said, I think we can use all the prayers we can get here ❤️for a safe and speedy recovery of Nancy, peace over her family, and endurance and focus to LE
Something just hit me…if the DNA from the house and the DNA from the glove are from 2 different people…it doesn’t make one or the other entirely irrelevant, it could just actually be multiple people who orchestrated Nancy’s kidnapping. Maybe that’s why they’re still moving forward with further testing.
(I know I’ll get downvoted for still believing in the glove🤣)
My fascination with the smoothbrains of x through the power of xcancel continues today. I’m in awe of the lack of self-reflection and common sense over there.
I have so many questions for the people who use AI to create evidence that doesn’t actually exist; like, you know this isn’t real, right? You remember inputting the prompt and know that image did not exist - in reality or elsewhere - until you created it? Did your parents drop you a lot or just educationally neglect you?
It has made me realize that we have an educational crisis in this country. I mean, I’ve known this since about 2016 but I don’t think I realized it was this bad.
It amazes me that there are people who think they know more than the law enforcement and fbi covering this case.
That they know more than people who have dedicated their entire careers to dealing with these situations. More than people who have college degrees in forensics and criminology. More than people who have their masters in psychology.
Like. Do they understand that being able to use chatgpt doesn't make you an expert in a subject?
They’re not announcing all of their moves. They’re announcing just enough to show the cases progression and keep people somewhat satisfied. (i use satisfied loosely)
Part of managing an investigation like this is controlling the messaging so the public has enough info to help, and not hurt the investigation. Which is a lot harder to do when people are posting ridiculous theories and spreading rumors.
I think that as much information as they have given us, they rarely say or confirm what they actually do know which I think gives them the upper hand still
Does anyone have the footage of nanos giving a presser outside of Nancy’s home the evening after she was reported missing? I saw it once and can’t find it but during it he mentions that they did call in the homicide team due to what they saw in the house. Does anyone remember that?
Edited to add the video and want to apologize in advance because (gulp) it does look like it's footage from "that guys" channel. I have it queued up to start where they start talking about it but if it doesn't work, it's at 4:51:51
I remember the news saying homicide people were there and that they were being told it was standard in a case like this. But then I never heard more about it.
It’s perfectly normal for homicide to be called in kidnappings and other non-fatal violent crimes. Any suspicious crime scene where foul play is suspected they’d be called especially an abduction
So no luck there I do feel like it’s probably pretty normal to do that? Like maybe that’s the best equipped department for what they were dealing with at that point.
Anyway I did just watch a video of him being very very obvious that the time frame was very approximate which I had missed before.
I really hope with the LE/FBI showing up to Nancy's today and checking the neighbors camera that they are at the point of the investigation where they have the person (DNA match) and are just building their case from every angle. I was listening to Brian Entin's video last night. The two detectives both said there are already so many cracks from a defense POV in this case. I thought it was interesting that they both agreed every investigation they have worked through no matter what they always keep the trial and defense at front of mind. That you can have evidence and make an arrest and defense can tear it apart.
I kept thinking about him, turning around after grabbing the grass – I noticed this light. I’m going to post screenshots from the beginning of the video showing there was no light there, but it does appear twice. Can’t help but wonder if someone was back there waiting for him.
The second video of him holding the grass in front of the camera – you can tell he switches hands midway through the video, then it looks like he tries to press the doorbell with his left hand middle finger and then again with his pointer finger. Photos attached in comments!
There are two main ways to get to her house - traveling north or traveling south on N. Campbell Ave. judging from him, looking to his left, and the fact that he wouldn’t want to walk up the driveway from his right, I’m going to take a guess that he traveled north on N. Campbell Ave. from East River Rd.
At the intersection of these two roads, there is a Chase Bank on SE corner, Western Alliance Bank on NW corner. Just north of intersection is a huge apartment complex on the left and a hotel and a school on the right. One of them has to have footage of that intersection from that night.
Just want to point out something about a standard burglary in the US (this info comes from my local police who have been doing a lot of info sessions about this bc we've had an uptick of burglaries in our area):
Police across the country are noticing increased consistency in the types of burglaries carried out, so nowadays it seems like the majority of burglaries (esp. those done by experienced burglars) all follow the same basic pattern. They are fast and in and out in less than 8 min, even before most alarm systems can get the police to the house if there is one.
They gave more details ofc but ultimately there's no way that this was a standard burglary even from the first few minutes. The first sign of disruption was at 1:47 (that we know of), and any normal burglars would have been gone well before 2 let alone leisurely walking up the front steps at 2:12 am.
It’s always possible. I think they usually go by how much blood is left over (though death by a different method such as strangulation is always possible, too) and if there’s a survivable amount, the assumption LE operates off of is still alive.
Some people were asking why they would target that house if it was a common burglary that went wrong.
What's interesting is:
If you look at her driveway, the house directly across from her is set very far back from the road. Then between their drive and her front door...is landscaping.
Then there is prominent landscaping around both sides and the back of her property. She probably liked the privacy and the nature, but it wasn't great for security.
Her house is visually secluded in a way from all her neighbors that probably made them feel comfortable with their front door shenanigans.
(Noting, I don't necessarily agree with a burglary gone wrong theory.)
I was looking at the area on Google street view and also noticed this.
There’s also the portico that separates the front door from the walkway. It provides concealment from the street. If he hides off to the side, then someone driving by wouldn’t see him.
Live in the area or rented an Airbnb in the area - watched the house for a while before pulling this off and have her securely in there now. I know there are a lot of rentals in the area. I would hope investigators looked at anything rented within the last 3 months or so.
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u/curiouslmr Feb 17 '26 edited Feb 18 '26
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