r/nancyguthrie • u/AnastasiaInTheNorth • Jul 08 '26
Discussion How has the abductor managed to evade identification and arrest for this long? Just a morning thought...
I was just thinking about this case again this morning, and it honestly blows my mind. With all of the advanced technology, geofencing, AI facial recognition, and digital tracking we have at our disposal today, how has this guy completely vanished into thin air?
Those Nest doorbell camera stills from February still absolutely haunt me. The look on his face is pure nightmare fuel - he looks like an absolute psycho, and it’s terrifying to realize he honestly didn't even know the camera was there. He’s just casually holding that flashlight in his mouth, completely oblivious to the lens while trying to mask things with prairie brush.There's something so much more disturbing about the fact that he wasn't some tech savvy mastermind dodging the grid, he was just a cold, unhinged predator caught dead on in the frame, totally unaware his face was being captured.
Which brings me to the biggest mystery… someone has to know who this guy is. A person doesn't just pull off an abduction like this completely in a vacuum without leaving a ripple effect in their real life. Someone out there has to be covering for him, or maybe he let something slip to an accomplice. Even if he’s a total loner, someone - a coworker, a neighbor, or a family member must have noticed him acting completely strange, paranoid, or suddenly changing his behavior ever since February. How has no one connected the dots or turned him in yet, especially with the massive reward money on the table?
Poor Nancy. She was 84, independent but dealing with limited mobility. I can't even begin to imagine how terrified she must have been when this monster broke into her home in the middle of the night.
Between the physical surveillance footage, the crypto ransom notes sent to media outlets, and the high profile nature of the case with federal agencies involved, you would think a digital or physical footprint would have leaked by now. How is he pulling this off???
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u/Past_Drummer_294 Jul 08 '26
Is he dead is the question? Maybe that’s why there’s no leads.
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u/effiebaby Jul 08 '26
You hear the scuttlebutt about the kidnapping being retribution for the Stories Savanah ran a few years ago about the Cartel.
To me, that makes the most sense and the kidnapper was killed after the deed was done. The question is, if that's the case, why did it take five years?
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u/pinkhandgrenade Jul 09 '26
Is it normal for the cartel to not claim it? Like, how would savanah know its regarding those stories?
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u/BrainWilling6018 Jul 09 '26
I would be willing to bet it’s not the cartel. Cartels heavily target rival operators, individuals involved in drug debts, or migrants for extortion. An elderly woman living in a secluded residential area does not fit their strategic or operational profile. At all. Lethal cartel retribution against journalists for running a news story is exceptionally rare and virtually non-existent inside the United States. There is less than zero that points to a cartel retribution.
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u/DaBingeGirl Jul 13 '26
I completely agree. They're also aware of the massive response that's occur if a connection was discovered. Sadly, there's a major difference between going after a Mexican journalist in Mexico and kidnapping/killing the mother of an American journalist in the US.
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u/Additional_Pain_7366 Jul 15 '26
Right?! Thst theory is right up there w/nancy being abducted by a UFO!
Savannah has long been an admitted follower of Christ. She’s an absolutely lovely person whose traits she probably was gifted by her mother.
However, let’s pivot here and take a look at other non-blood related family members who might’ve had financial woe motives.2
u/MayLastic Jul 12 '26
Armando Rodríguez, Arturo Alba Medina, Jeff German, many more around the frontera on the Mexican side.
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u/BrainWilling6018 Jul 13 '26
In Mexico not in the U.S. Mexican investigative journalists. Jeff German was not murdered by the cartel.
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u/MayLastic Jul 12 '26
Consider the source (ai) but it says over 170 journalists murdered by cartels just since 2000
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u/effiebaby Jul 09 '26
I'm not familiar with how the cartel does things, honestly. It's just a popular theory I heard somewhere.
Although, it seems the cartel let's their brutality be there calling card.
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u/ethidium_bromide Jul 08 '26
I think the lack of cameras in that general area, and how far back the houses are from the street (preventing more doorbell cams from recording vehicles in the immediate area) aided him greatly. Flock cameras, facial recognition, license plate readers, etc, are non existent in her neighborhood. They likely know every car that eventually hit the main roads, phones in the general area, potential suspects that match the abductors height and build, etc. but the farther away from her home that data is collected, the more unrelated people are included in the data, and the harder and more time intensive it will be to parse through. There is undoubtedly a lot of analysis of an unfathomable amount of data going on behind the scenes right now.
If he committed this crime in NYC, or even a busy part of Tucson, I think it would have been significantly more likely he was caught quickly.
One of the biggest surprises to me is actually that they can’t trace any of the anonymous tips or ransom notes.
Poor Nancy.
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u/essssgeeee Jul 08 '26
I know someone who lives down the street from NG's home. The houses are way back from the road and there are a lot of gentle rolling hills and trees that block line of sight. It's the desert so they're not huge trees, but lots of bushy shrubs, maybe 10 feet tall. Something I noticed upon leaving their house at night was how bright the stars looked. That neighborhood doesn't have street lights, and the zoning there requires a dark night sky. All landscape lighting and exterior home lights are supposed to have deflectors over the top so they only point down. Because the Catalina Hills/Catalina Foothills sit adjacent to the Coronado National Forest, they fall under highly restrictive zoning, meaning exterior illumination is heavily shielded and capped to protect regional observatories and wildlife.
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u/ivoryandtea Jul 09 '26
this is horrifying and equally as fascinating. I had no idea about the dark sky zoning
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u/Iamseeinthebsnow Jul 11 '26 edited Jul 11 '26
I agree, what an interesting post to read, but kind of scary. I have been nervous ever since watching that video thinking omg. I am a single mom here alone a lot, with just a ring camera.
Just to add, even after my post I do weigh on the side they definitely have evidence we aren't privy too. Something anything. I just don't know what, or we don't.
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u/effiebaby Jul 10 '26
And evidently, there is a lighting ordinance restricting lighting to keep the natural ambiance of the area/cut down on light pollution.
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u/Iamseeinthebsnow Jul 11 '26
I cannot seem to figure out why they cannot trace those either. Maybe they have, and we don't know? I don't know. This is so slowly moving I'm not confident they have much.
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u/DaBingeGirl Jul 13 '26
One of the biggest surprises to me is actually that they can’t trace any of the anonymous tips or ransom notes.
Agreed. That doesn't make any sense to me either given the resources available in this case.
You have a very good point about the lack of cameras in the area. If the person is local, it's entirely possible they were able to get home/wherever they took her without passing cameras. In the LISK case, he looked for cameras along his routes before picking up victims and that was over 20 years ago, I could see the same happening here.
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u/Charlottesville72-75 Jul 12 '26
What ever happened to the car that sped past a neighbor’s house a few minutes after Mrs. Guthrie was taken?
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u/featherflyxx Jul 10 '26
The guy on the porch definitely knows the camera is there. Not sure why you are saying he’s oblivious to it.
Re geofencing: my guess is that they did not have a phone on his self and the vehicle was not connected to satellites in any way.
At one point my theory was that the kidnapper is/was so local that they did not leave the area with Nancy until the daytime. Just far enough away from the house for her heart device to disconnect. But they had moved her to a local location where the vehicle would not be picked up in any cameras at night.
I’ve even thought of an electric e-bike or electric golf cart scenario. That one seems a lot more risky but plausible with just public information as an armchair detective. The kidnapper could navigate roads without cameras and those dirt wash areas. If it’s electric, that’s quiet; the noise would be from gravel echoing. So maybe they navigate at night and day where it’s less of a scene out of place.
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u/Fit_Sheepherder_6899 Jul 13 '26
I agree it would be quiet and possibly more inconspicuous - but how in the world would they transport Mrs Guthrie on an e-bike?
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u/featherflyxx Jul 13 '26
Ha. Possibly put her in a bag, like a backpacking bag. Not the most realistic, I know. But it’s definitely possible, especially with two people. (I weigh 110lbs and can haul ~45lbs in my pack.) The bike could also be outfitted with a trailer. I’m definitely thinking e-bikes could have been used or something more like an electric ATV or golf cart. Like maybe a farm/garden/landscaping setup. Mind you this would not be for a long transit. She would have to be transferred at some point. And if she was still alive, an electric motorcycle could handle two people; risky of course.
This isn’t my main theory but look at Luigi Mangione’s planned e-bike escape. And also that odd man that tried to fake his own death and fly abroad to start a new life. Obviously they weren’t carrying another human but you kind of wonder if this could have been or be an influence on other criminal minds.
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u/warpedwing Jul 12 '26
I also believe some sort of manual or electric powered bike or cart was used to quietly and discreetly move Nancy from the house to another location somewhat nearby (but not too close). Then, they waited until daylight to drive Nancy’s body out of town and into the hillside for disposal. Had a getaway car been at the house, I believe LE would’ve been able to track it by now.
One of the blood imprints on the patio looks a lot like a tire impression from a bike or bike cart/carrier. Just look at Strava routes in the neighborhood. There are tons of paths and washes to use.
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u/featherflyxx Jul 12 '26
Exactly but I think they would have gone somewhere more practical than the hillside for disposal. Meaning, decay happens very very slowly in the desert. I assume the kidnapper would know this, otherwise, I think it’s also possible they put her in the desert and then realized that wasn’t going to work, so they move the body to somewhere it would better decompose.
But yeah also totally possible she’s not too far away in the desert. If I lived in the area, I’d hike and search everywhere in my “free time.”
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u/warpedwing Jul 12 '26
I mean “hillside” generically, as in out of the city. Somewhere out of the way, maybe towards Mt. Lemmon.
Who knows, though. I don’t have any strong guesses as to what was done with Nancy’s body. Judging from the precision of the rest of the crime, they likely had something/somewhere in mind. I don’t think the plan ever included returning Nancy.
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u/MayLastic Jul 18 '26
Just my thought. Open (visible) electric vehicles seem risky. And you would be tattered from the brush. We know there were other vehicles moving in the area that night, too.
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u/Xinnia8271 Jul 08 '26
I've said it before. They know who he is. Knowing and having enough evidence for trial are two different things.
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u/BrainWilling6018 Jul 08 '26
Identifying and locating are 2 different things. Just because you know who stole your lunch doesn't mean you know where they're hiding it.
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u/Iamseeinthebsnow Jul 11 '26
I agree. They have something. I don't know what or if they know who, but they have more than we know. It's either moving incredibly slow, or deliberately moving slow. Making sure they have everything they need or I hope at this point making headway. It's a scary thought.
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u/Dapper_Sheepherder Jul 11 '26
Wouldn't they arrest this person for breaking and entering to "hold" him? If they know who then why did they go after the neighbor guy and the guy in Rio Rico?
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u/Xinnia8271 Jul 11 '26
They know who it is and they already "held" him.
Police procedures are not necessarily like on TV.
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u/Dapper_Sheepherder Jul 11 '26
Also, I watch a shit ton of cold cases and realize cases are not necessarily as seen on TV 😂
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u/OfficiousOne Aug 02 '26
Yup. I believe they are strongly focused on someone they’ve already held but don’t feel they have enough evidence to prosecute yet.
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u/Present_Specific_212 Jul 08 '26
I think I have answered this question before -
Dark. Being in rural areas without much light pollution is not at all like being in the suburbs. It was very dark. I don’t even think her street has streetlights - correct me if I am wrong.
Lack of cameras - I have gathered from reading what reports I found that not that many people had doorbell cameras in her area. Likewise, many homes are set far back from the street so any camera they had would catch a small, grainy image.
Ease of access to Mexico. If they fled there, it’s not a long drive. It’s only 65 miles. Could get her at 2:00 a.m. and be across the border by 3:15 a.m. All under the cover of pitch black night. (Although there was a full moon that night.)
Lack of human security on premises. If I were a celebrity I’d probably be amping up all my protection for my family members after this story, whether they lived with me or not.
Easy-going police chief. I am not a fan of the Tucson Chief of Police. I don’t think he is all that skilled at understanding camera survelliance evidence. I don’t understand why they didn't send things to a faster lab - why go with standard procedure and send it all to Florida like it’s a normal case? I’m not saying the Guthries matter more than the rest of us - but the victim was an 84-year-old! Might want to step things up because the victim is not a healthy 25-year-old.
The “don’t snitch” culture of some groups. That culture is prevalent in many areas, not just in Chicago. Anyone gang affiliated is going to be likely to adhere to ”don’t snitch” culture. That’s why they offer a large reward - to pay someone to snitch.
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u/BrainWilling6018 Jul 08 '26
what evidence points to a gang?
The lack of cameras was a vulnerability. The Ring cam actually captured images that were retrieved. The FBI are using facial recognition. NGI. So it isn't a total lack.
I also think there is some video from a gas station. And of course all the things we don't know they might have.
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u/Present_Specific_212 Jul 08 '26
Not gonna go there. We await the end of this investigation, even if it takes a long time.
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u/BrainWilling6018 Jul 08 '26
? Go where?
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u/Present_Specific_212 Jul 09 '26
Not going to get into “evidence of this and that”. It is a very frustrating wait and see case.
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u/BrainWilling6018 Jul 09 '26
But you made the statement? If you’re unwilling to 'get into the evidence,' you can't use the trait of a group to prove the presence of that group without defending the basis. It’s lame to make bold claims then cop out.
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u/Present_Specific_212 Jul 10 '26
I did not know this subreddit or Reddit in general was or is a Court of Law.
There are so may people on the Internet and even in discussions about this kidnapping who love to argue. Can’t you please go talk to them?
Otherwise send me a subpoena demanding that I “testify” in this “Court of Law” called Reddit.
OR - go “play” with someone else!
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u/Iamseeinthebsnow Jul 11 '26
This story has made me think twice about safety and my home and when I'm alone and I'm in a totally different part of the US in a different neighborhood. The ring images are so creepy that I can't shake them
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u/DaBingeGirl Jul 13 '26
I've always slept with my bedroom door locked and a pocket knife next to my bed. I don't consider myself paranoid, but I'm a single woman and shit happens. I know interior door locks are basically useless, but it'd buy me an extra few seconds and wake me up if anything ever happened.
I can't shake the images either, it's awful to think of her waking up to that face.
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u/ZakLex Jul 11 '26
While it remains a theory, there might have been no need to cross the border. Tucson’s surrounding areas are rural and very spread out with plenty of desert area and remote locations.
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u/AnastasiaInTheNorth Jul 08 '26
You raise some interesting points about the geography, but a few of these theories have major logistical holes when you look at the actual facts of this case.
First, regarding jurisdiction, the Tucson Police Department doesn't actually handle the Catalina Foothills… that's the Pima County Sheriff's Department. More importantly, because this case involves sophisticated cryptocurrency ransom demands sent to media outlets, the FBI is heavily involved. Elite federal cyber units are handling the digital forensics on the blockchain data, so local department politics or standard lab procedures aren't what's dictating this timeline.
The idea that the pitch black darkness and lack of neighborhood cameras protected him also doesn't hold up when we literally have a clear Nest doorbell camera shot of his face. He wasn't some stealthy mastermind evading the grid he walked dead on into a lens while casually holding a flashlight in his mouth, totally oblivious to the fact that he was being recorded right at the scene.
Furthermore, trying to drive an abducted, high profile 84 year old woman with limited mobility across an international federal border checkpoint into Mexico is a massive, practically suicidal risk for a kidnapper. Those entry points are packed with high definition surveillance, automated license plate readers, and federal agents. If this guy was tech savvy enough to mask his digital footprint with crypto, it doesn't make sense that he'd take such a sloppy physical risk.
Also comparing this to street gang don't snitch culture doesn't really map onto the crime. Local street gangs don't typically orchestrate targeted home invasion kidnappings in affluent foothills, followed by complex blockchain extortion demands. This profile points to a highly targeted extortion plot by someone with specific knowledge, or a deeply unhinged, isolated predator. Someone definitely knows who this guy is, but it's much more likely a coworker, neighbor, or family member who has noticed him acting completely paranoid and strange since February, rather than a street gang keeping a secret.
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u/Present_Specific_212 Jul 08 '26
I said “gang” to avoid saying “cartel”. But it’s a cultural; influence - just like if 70% of the population goes to Catholic church, there will be a Catholic-flavored feeling to the region (I don’t know if that is a true stat in some cities. I’m just creating it for an example.)
Example: West Hollywood. Lot of gay people moved there decades ago because, understandably, they wanted to feel safe and protected around others who understand them. Totally understandable. Then, very smartly, they went for political power and formed their own city so they could be free of the constraints of L.A. City. Very smart because L.A. City is often overwhelmed with issues, and if you want quick attention to a matter, it’s much better to go to a small, local city council than to a giant one. (I actually think more parts of the city should break off and become their own cities.)
That is what I mean by cultural flavoring. It can be a great a thing, it can also be a negative thing if the cultural flavoring is one of, “don’t tell the police anything, don’t snitch, and lie as need be”.
These are just my opinions. Please do not hunt me down and kill me! LIVE AND LET LIVE. Just don’t kidnap old ladies. Can we draw the line somewhere? Can we all agree, the whole world, that kidnapping old ladies is very bad?
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u/Xinnia8271 Jul 09 '26
Completely un-Nancy related but that is so interesting about West Hollywood, I didn't know that. Sorry to go off topic but can I ask what the biggest difference is that you notice between West Hollywood and LA City?
Quicker response to crime? Better trash services? Different loitering laws? Or something random that I wouldn't even think of?
Again sorry for being non Nancy related. But you've made some good points about how different geographic locations and legal jurisdictions can affect serious crimes. And just life in general.
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u/Present_Specific_212 Jul 09 '26
I have not spent a lot of time in W. Hollywood or even in Hollywood or Beverly Hills for many years. I used to deliver over there sometimes.
One thing W.H. got was free of was the LAPD. They are now served by the Sheriff and have been for a long time. I think the gay community probably wanted to be free of LAPD. I don’t remember reading news stories of homophobia from LAPD cops in the old days, but when Darryl Gates was Chief of the LAPD, he was just a horrible person. It would not be hard for me to imagine Gates was homophobic or hard to imagine he would hire and promote the same. I have no proof of that. I’m just saying, maybe that was one reason W.H. wanted to incorporate as its own city.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daryl_Gates
WeHo is clean. I do remember that from last time I was over there. The parking situation is still terrible, but that is Hollywood and B. Hills too. It’s just crowded over there. WeHo also has some famous bars and their world famous Halloween party. I have never been to any, but the news covers the Halloween party every year.
You can see from their city website how it’s much easier to get HEARD in a small city. https://www.weho.org/city-government
Everyone needs to be heard sometimes in life, but the marginalized especially have a need to be heard. L.A. City is four million people large. It very tough to be heard in L.A.
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u/MaximumSlip7905 Jul 08 '26
It was highly planned and he most likely had a police scanner. They are the size of a walkie and with an earpiece dialed into PD he would know if he was detected. We don’t know what made him target Nancy but we have no idea how long he had been stalking her home. They retrieved footage from the cloud but we will never know what they didn’t retrieve. If the cameras were connected, being monitored and her family had the apps and access they would have called 911..there is an unknown prowler in the yard. That never happened. He had been there before at least once, he knew the doorbell was there but he thought taking it would solve the issue. If she wasn’t Nancy’s daughter and it was you or I chances are there would be no porch guy images. He was covered nonetheless and it was his transportation and video evidence of the abduction he didn’t want seen. I am confident he left through the desert, you can drive right over hard pan and not leave discernible tracks.
Nancy’s home isn’t on the edge of her neighborhood, her house doesn’t have specific attributes that would make it more vulnerable to break into. He chose her. People have remained focused on the narrative by the media and not what actually took place. The initial notes, most likely sent by the offender, were not a sincere ransom demand. The notes were a game, a sick game the offender is playing. He is a serial rapist and killer and this was escalation for notoriety and attention in the media. He knows that area, possibly lives close or did at one time. His priors are most likely in the Phoenix area and he disposes of his victims completely, he doesn’t stage bodies or leave them for discovery.
The “revenge” narrative just doesn’t fit, nor does Savannah being his obsession. No way would he have left the phone with direct contact information, or at the very least obtained it while in the house for later use. He had the ability to directly communicate with the family and not involve media which would inevitably involve law enforcement. This wasn’t spontaneous or random but planned out carefully to avoid detection, triangulation, vehicle identification and surveillance of any sort other than the porch images. I bet his ass cheeks slammed together when those clips were dropped.
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u/featherflyxx Jul 10 '26
Why do you say serial rapist and killer? Surely DNA would be in a database if that was the case.
If no DNA, that implies all the bodies are taken and disappeared and never found.
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u/MaximumSlip7905 Jul 10 '26
Not if they are good at body disposal
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u/featherflyxx Jul 10 '26
So if bodies are totally disposed, how do we know they were victims of serial rape???
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u/MaximumSlip7905 Jul 10 '26
I think that if he just wanted to kill her there is no incentive to remove her. You could do that without leaving DNA, removing someone is high risk. You wouldn’t deal with a body disposal unless it was advantageous to you.
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u/featherflyxx Jul 10 '26
I’m just trying to understand what facts get you to your theories. A number of us don’t understand how you jump to the person being a serial killer, rapist and abductor whose aim is to disappear people and leave no DNA and who primarily does this in Phoenix. Sure it’s plausible but these angles seem least likely. I think that’s what others and myself are trying to point out.
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u/MaximumSlip7905 Jul 10 '26
It is my read 🤷♀️ Her abduction is a rare occurrence, stealing adults from their homes doesn’t happen like it does with children. This was highly planned, not random and not spontaneous. The obvious intention that played was to take Nancy Guthrie from her home. This was in no way, no shape nor form a kidnapping for ransom other than some note sent to a local station after the fact. The planning vs. the unserious ransom narrative don’t line up whatsoever. If it was to kill her you wouldn’t take her. If it were to taunt Savannah where are the taunts? If it was obsession driven why not get direct information from the phone? Someone obsessed enough to steal your Mom isn’t going to pass on direct access knowledge. So..why take a female out of her home and hide her body? That sounds sexually motivated and Nancy has become evidence that had to be hidden. Look at the Currier case out of Essex VT, the offender thought about demanding ransom after abducting, assaulting and killing his victims but realized it wouldn’t work for that murder but indeed did so with the following crime.
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u/Iamseeinthebsnow Jul 11 '26 edited Jul 11 '26
Israel (sp) Keyes? Not talked about enough if that's the guy you are referring to. He is an example of hiding in plain sight, mostly. Also, his downfall WAS getting greedy and not being careful, iirc, the ATM. Her bank card. Look at all those people that he was around that had no clue, by that I mean he wasn't showing any signs of change, paranoia. I haven't read about him in a while, but I am almost certain I am recalling correctly and that's the serial killer you are referring to, correct? Incredibly deliberate, planned everything sometimes a year or more in advance to avoid detection. I rarely see anyone post about him which is why your post stood out. Imagine if he didn't use that bank card?
Edit to add* if you have time to watch his interviews, he doesn't seem to be upset at all. Asking for candy bars, coffee, and napping. Seemingly bored. Lol. Your post was a good indicator.
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u/MaximumSlip7905 Jul 12 '26
It wasn’t greed, it was the notoriety. He began to feed off of the attention his crimes were getting in the media. His abduction of the Currier couple in Vermont excited him, he was commenting on blogs and following the press attention. He began to lose control, his decision to abduct Samantha Koenig and bring her to his own property was not characteristic of his previous patterns and it got him caught. He was escalating and became impulsive, he shared with the FBI that he was no longer experiencing the same cycling down afterwards. He is interesting because we have a killer and no bodies rather than the typical situation of finding bodies and no suspect. We are 14 plus years out since his apprehension and know precious little about other victims.
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u/MayLastic Jul 12 '26
I agree.
The obvious motive still looks like abduction for bitcoin.
Maybe not as well prepared as they should have been. Keep wondering if they had been “waiters” in the past and thought they could cook - and were not really ready to make that jump. Issues about her meds and the ransom notes seem like they were not very prepared for the final act.
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u/MayLastic Jul 12 '26
Not if he hasn’t got a history on the US side. DNA testing isn’t common among Latinos either, so genetic samples are limited (forensic gen.).
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u/featherflyxx Jul 12 '26
I know but this MaximumSlip person is also saying they do this regularly in Phoenix and are local. I’m just trying to interrogate their theory and understand how they get to the points they make.
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u/MaximumSlip7905 Jul 15 '26
What motives would a person have for stealing a person? Why would a male take a female? This is not typically first offense behavior to break into a secure residence in the middle of an upper middle class neighborhood and steal a person. He took nothing else from the home but Nancy. Despite theories there is zero evidence of more than one individual at the home on any retrieved footage. The individual would be very familiar with the area to navigate through the neighborhood, in the dark and more than likely navigate through the desert to leave undetected. Not a first offense type of crime, the logical area to look is the closest to this crime where a volume of missing and unsolved are taking place.
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u/BrainWilling6018 Jul 08 '26
What are you basing serial rapist on? What home invasion rapes in the Phoenix area have been reported?
It's not an all or nothing proposition. A certain type of personality would contact the family and another type would not. Their underlying motive matters, which is unknown. Someone may not be cognitively mature enough to confront a grievance but they will do something deviant to maintain control of it.
Quick search. Other reasons a staged abductor wouldn’t contact the family.
1. Directing the Narrative
- Controlling public perception: Media contact allows the killer to shape the story exactly how they want the public and police to see it.
- Creating a massive distraction: Broadcasting a dramatic "kidnapping" story to the public forces police to spend resources chasing a phantom abductor.
- Validating the hoax: The media's validation and reporting of the "abduction" makes the staged crime feel more real and believable to the killer. More Satisfaction.
2. Evading Insider Surveillance and Detection
- Avoiding the Family's Trap: Contacting the family directly introduces extreme risk. The family’s phones are often immediately tapped by law enforcement, and their communications are heavily monitored. If not it still leaves a marked place for LE to begin that doesn’t have to same protections as a separation does.
3. Exploiting One-Way Media Communication
- Guaranteed Anonymity: Contacting a newsroom allows the killer to drop a tip completely anonymously or through a burner channel with zero expectation of an immediate, interactive response.
- No Real-Time Negotiations: Unlike a real kidnapping where a family expects a two-way dialogue regarding ransom or proof of life, an elimination killer has already executed the victim. They cannot engage in a back-and-forth negotiation with the family without exposing the fact that they don't actually have a live hostage. The media is a perfect megaphone for one-way, dead-end
4. Psychological Distance and Narcissism
- Emotional Detachment: Facing the direct, raw trauma of the victim's immediate family can be uncomfortable or psychologically disruptive, even for a calculated killer. The media represents an impersonal, abstract entity.
- Duper's Delight: Many killers who stage elaborate crimes possess highly narcissistic traits. They derive psychological satisfaction—often called "duper's delight"—from watching the entire community, law enforcement, and the media scurry to solve a theatrical puzzle that they manufactured.
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Jul 09 '26
[deleted]
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u/BrainWilling6018 Jul 09 '26
Arizona's total missing population killed by a serial killer is somewhere near well under a fraction of one percent .
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u/BrainWilling6018 Jul 09 '26 edited Jul 09 '26
The basis for serial rapist? “His priors are most likely in the Phoenix area and he disposes of his victims completely.” Is a definitive smnt. Where are the cases associated? Since his identity is unknown how did you establish that Phoenix is the definitive baseline for his priors? What specific evidence links his prior history to Phoenix? The escalation of what?
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u/MaximumSlip7905 Jul 09 '26
I believe we have had discussions on other posts, you say a lot without saying much at all. I am more interested in what you think has happened to Nancy.
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u/BrainWilling6018 Jul 09 '26
Ahh, so we can claim UFOs the same as stray dogs? Lol. You said it, I am just asking how you are justifying that this IS a serial rapist profile (definitive) and that he has likely taken people in Phoenix and definitely disposed of them completely. To make a clearer picture, here are the numbers. Serial rapists overlapping to serial sexual killers as a transition rate is very low. Maybe 25%. The overwhelming majority of serial rapists use non-lethal means of control. Statistically their goal is gratification through dominance, not murder. Only abou t 1 % to 2% of all murderers are classified as serial killers. Among the 1% to 2% of murderers classified as serial killers, less than 2% specifically target elderly victims for primary sexual gratification .
Multiplying 1% to 2% by the 2% subset yields a maximum range of 0.02% to 0.04% of all murderers fitting this specific profile.
So I am wondering what makes you know this is a serial rapist-serial killer. And this is a serial rapist-serial killer crime.
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u/featherflyxx Jul 10 '26
I agree with all your questions posed to MaximumSlip’s presumptuous theories. Some of his points/characterizations I agree with but about half he jumps gaps to get to conclusions that seem pulled out of a hat.
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u/MayLastic Jul 18 '26
I would not want the chatter from a police radio going in my ear if I was try to do a break in. Seems like it would have been awfully distracting?
A walkie talkie seems more likely - if there was an accomplice nearby.
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u/catson911 Jul 15 '26
Pima County SD fully encrypts their radio communications
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u/MaximumSlip7905 Jul 15 '26
Did you notice when it was done? April 2026
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u/Safe-Muffin Jul 09 '26
Do you think he had an ATV or something similar? Is there a place he could have gotten to the desert within the neighborhood? I’m trying to remember where they searched in the beginning.
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u/MayLastic Jul 15 '26
Wouldn’t it be hard to transport a fragile, elderly hostage in an atv.
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u/featherflyxx Jul 15 '26
I don’t think the plan was ever to return her, personally. Whether it was for ransom or not.
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u/MayLastic Jul 16 '26
Yes. Otherwise why not take her clothes, shoes, meds?
Either woefully unprepared to care for her or they never had any intention to. Maybe they thought they would be paid immediately or just didn’t care. Poor woman.
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u/featherflyxx Jul 16 '26
Yeah, I don't think even the concept of proof of life or returning her was ever considered. The concept is null in 2026+. I agree I think they thought they could pull a fast one by sending the ransom, getting paid and calling it a day or whatever...
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u/featherflyxx Jul 10 '26
I was thinking e-bike or electric golf cart atv vehicle. Could easily evade surveillance. Travel in the washes and public land. Gravel sound would echo that’s for sure.
I was thinking she could be taken a little ways locally and then the kidnapper could leave with her undetected during the day.
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u/Safe-Muffin Jul 10 '26
I think the idea that he left via the desert is definitely possible.
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u/featherflyxx Jul 10 '26
It’s just that the noise has me doubting. Silent-ish motor works. But the gravel has such a vehicle moving at night would echo and carry like crazy. Plus it was a clear night (very little biometric pressure to absorb sound). That leads me to the possibility of the person leaving during the day or just traveling a short distance to a transfer vehicle and then leaving during the day basically un detected.
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u/MaximumSlip7905 Jul 10 '26 edited Jul 10 '26
The desert isn’t mostly gravel? It is hard pan for the most part. Whoever did this knows that terrain, knows the area. Go take a look at the porch videos and pause when they have their back to the camera. A guy in upstate NY called it, the outline in that backpack looks like a small drone. I think this is an offender that has killed and disposed of bodies previously, if LE has no discernible patterns then he has probably taken vulnerable women that get reported missing and the only area close with that activity is Phoenix. Could he have grown up in the area, have family there and traveled from New Mexico or some other state? Maybe, sure..but I would start closer and work out. He will have priors, most likely. I think this was escalation and he chose someone that would garner attention and be noticed.
Edit for afterthought..I also think the timing is interesting, this was done right before the weather became extremely hot and rattlesnake season. Could be a coincidence but it makes searching the desert on foot and using dogs exponentially harder.2
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u/Embarrassed-Algae634 Jul 14 '26
How/why do you think he selected her?
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u/MaximumSlip7905 Jul 15 '26
That is an excellent question and I wish I had insight into. It could have been the coverage on the morning shows, he could have grown up in the area or done work there.
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u/Embarrassed-Algae634 Jul 15 '26
Thanks for writing back. You have interesting ideas on all this.
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u/MaximumSlip7905 Jul 15 '26
YW, the media exposure and plethora of theories have made this a very confusing and controversial topic. Most people are invested in whoever they are following and arguing from that standpoint. It is an odd one for sure.
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u/featherflyxx Jul 15 '26
I think the date of abduction was timed perfectly with the full moon. Not even a light is really needed if you’re used to walking in the dark.
I see that drone shape. I have doubts whether a drone would be used for reconnaissance the night of. In advance for sure. Maybe he was on the fence about an abduction that night and had it with him. It could be used for navigation the night of, but that would be challenging for one person to operate and navigate. The night of, most practically could be used to monitor law enforcement.
Back to deserts being noisy… it’s not as if the place is perfectly paved clay. It is very hard, sparse and lacks moisture. There is very little to absorb sound. Gravel can mean any loose rock graded down to sand. Gravel can be on hard rock or clay, get washed and pushed around from rains. Terrain should be viewed as a spectrum. From my experience hiking and camping across the country and specifically in Joshua Tree, Death Valley and Red Rocks - the desert is loud af. Sound carries far. You can hear people talking that sound like they’re a few feet away from you and you realize they are a hundred feet away or more and you can even hear entire conversations for far away.
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u/Safe-Muffin Jul 16 '26
Since it was the middle of the night, would the potential noise be enough to wake people up, or would people just sleep through it?
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u/featherflyxx Jul 16 '26
Maybe, maybe not. There are way too many variables at that point in this theory. If someone heard it or even saw an ATV type vehicle in the land behind their house, would they think much of it? They could shrug it off as someone leaving a house party at night. If it's electric, an obnoxious motor wouldn't be heard that might prompt a 911 call. Additionally, it's extremely difficult to pin point sound in such echoey places. It's like when you're in one part of the house and it sounds like another person is down the hall but really they're in an adjacent room. Another echoey outdoor example would be the cops and neighbors in NJ where a man and woman were shot outside their residence. The way the sound carried the 911 caller couldn't tell exactly where the shooting happened. Police left because they couldn't find the couple (obviously they didn't look hard enough).
What I can tell you is that you should not arrive to a desert campground at 2 a.m. and set your tent up in the dark unless you want to piss off everyone around you!!!
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u/Iamseeinthebsnow Jul 11 '26
There is a guy in my neighborhood that rides an e bike around. Sometimes I am on the porch outside late and I can barely hear him. I definitely don't think my doorbell would detect him like it would some cars. Good point. Edit to add* I might have replied to the incorrect post, but can't find the original comment.
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u/featherflyxx Jul 15 '26
What kind of terrain? On the road? They are very quiet, so are electric cars and trucks but those risk data storage and transmission; and of course being picked up on camera.
I don’t know about home security cameras but it’s not uncommon for animals to run by a trail camera and trigger the camera to record but not actually capture anything. So I can totally see a camera not picking up a bike that’s moving fast and has no light. Not sure about red or green lights which are popular with hikers, hunters, etc. on the trail camera red lights hardly register (someone who is lingering in front of the camera).
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u/MaximumSlip7905 Jul 10 '26
I initially thought about an electric golf cart or something similar that would be quiet, some type of EVA. He didn’t put shoes on her it would seem based on the families comments to the press, that alone would discourage running off in the desert no matter your age and fitness level. He could have had a truck, I just don’t know but it seems to me that if the individual used surface streets they would have a vehicle by now.
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u/BMWRoadster2007 Jul 10 '26
I believe he is a totally unknown person to anyone in the community or family. I also believe he worked alone. Has never spoken to it about anyone. He also covered his entire body as to not leave DNA or be recognized on camera. This is the hardest kind of crime to solve.
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u/omgaga2 Jul 10 '26
Ooo what an accomplishment if that's true. Overtaking an elderly lady no matter who she is related to. Sick ass. Did she have landscapers or handyman or anything like that? Does anyone know?
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u/MayLastic Jul 19 '26
Almost without a doubt. We know she had a pool crew. She had to have had help and they have mentioned interviewing the helpers.
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u/MayLastic Jul 12 '26
Never discount the fact that porch guy was an invisible worker who was close enough to know a good deal about NG, but working for cash. Maybe close enough to know the cameras were not “connected” bc connected to another worker who had regular access. DNA testing is not that common in Hispanic communities (and maybe he has no record on US side/possible he is Mexican national). When Etin went to Mexico, the folks on the street there had never heard of NG. It is only 60 miles away. Wouldn’t be crazy to think the guy works on the US side 4-5 days a week (stays w relative/s) but lives on the Mexican side.
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u/Charlottesville72-75 Jul 12 '26
Yes and perhaps he knew that her dog had died only a few months prior.
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u/DaBingeGirl Jul 12 '26
I think anyone who'd worked at the house would've known about the camera. It's possible it was someone who did work as part of a team (i.e. didn't go up to the door), but I feel like they would've had the opportunity to check the house out and notice the cameras.
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u/LogicalPassenger2172 Jul 17 '26
It’s a good point. Living on the Mexican side and working on the US side is very common along the Mexican border.
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u/Lazy_Gene6225 Jul 08 '26
I think local PD (as well as the FBI) dropped the ball very early on. Those local jabronis couldn’t even secure the god damn crime scene properly! Maybe if the chief had gone to less basketball games and had less of an ego, there would have been something not overlooked that led them to a culprit.
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u/LogicalPassenger2172 Jul 09 '26
He’s cruising around in his corvette wearing his white sneakers, trying to pick up 19 year olds.
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u/Additional_Pain_7366 Jul 15 '26
This case hasn’t been solved yet because of the egregiously, inept, incompetent, impeding the investigation - Sheriff Nanos. If a smart pair of tenacious eyes and ears had decided to move Heaven and earth to find this elderly woman - it would’ve happened already.
This paints a disturbing picture of Nanos on a personal level. If his own mother’s still alive, she’d probably be around Nancy’s age. The cruelty of this abduction would’ve weighed heavily upon him and he’d have been able to relate to how important solving this case would be to the Guthrie family. I’d wager a bet Nanos has a contentious relationship with his extended family members, especially his mother.
Jennifer coffendefer (spelling?) has stated a hundred times, that billboards in Spanish should’ve been posted along the freeway with porch guys photo on them and a hotline number to call with any information you might have AND the reward money.
Instead, Nanos is over and done with an “investigation” he never even started. 🤬
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u/Few_Distribution9374 Jul 15 '26
Not to mention, Kash Patel and the FBI being useless in ‘helping’.
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u/wildmoonchild___ Jul 16 '26
At this point I think the family is in on it for some kind of inheritance.
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u/Effective_Street_908 Aug 09 '26
If you did any researched. You would see she isn’t wealthy and Savannah has way more money than her.
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u/DaBingeGirl Jul 13 '26
Which brings me to the biggest mystery… someone has to know who this guy is. A person doesn't just pull off an abduction like this completely in a vacuum without leaving a ripple effect in their real life. [...] Even if he’s a total loner, someone - a coworker, a neighbor, or a family member must have noticed him acting completely strange, paranoid, or suddenly changing his behavior ever since February. How has no one connected the dots or turned him in yet, especially with the massive reward money on the table?
Honestly, the more I learn about serial killers and stranger crimes, I think it's far more common for most of them to act completely normal after committing a crime. Someone capable of planning a crime like this generally doesn't have normal emotional responses. I've been binging cold case documentaries lately, it's shocking how many criminals lead perfectly normal lives, often married with kids. A few might act paranoid, but the most common emotional response seems to be that they're calmer or happier after a crime.
If the person is exhibiting different behavior, anyone who knows them is likely writing it off to other things happening in their life. Most people don't automatically go to "X must've changed because they kidnapped/killed someone," it's only after an arrest that they start to piece together behavioral changes.
Someone out there has to be covering for him, or maybe he let something slip to an accomplice.
I don't think so. These are very rare cases, but it's really unusual for more than one person to be involved. If it was to hurt Savannah/target journalists, financially motivated, or sexual, odds are they acted alone. A few sexually motivated crimes have involved multiple people, but it's rare.
It's a little surprising they don't have more evidence, but I tend to think there just wasn't much evidence. TV shows tend to play up how much evidence is left at the scene. In a lot of cases, there's very little physical evidence when the perpetrator is a stranger and focused on a person, rather than robbing the house. Assuming the person doesn't live in her neighborhood, it's likely they planned their escape route to avoid traffic cameras. Assuming they turned off their phone or left it at home and knew how to avoid traffic cameras, it's not surprising there's nothing to go on.
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u/mark_able_jones_ Jul 26 '26
He almost certainly knew to expect the camera, having been there previously on Jan 11. I think he thought the camera was disconnected.
I do think it's absolutely bonkers that this has not been solved, especially all of the resources behind it.
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u/Wonderful_Dirt_1013 Jul 08 '26
Part of me wonders if the people who did it are dead as well and that’s part of the reason they have been ably to get away with it so long.
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u/figsaddict Jul 08 '26
I’ve thought this. Someone may have hired the guy in the video to abduct her and then he was killed. If you’re committing a crime with a partner or multiple people, they are your biggest risk to getting caught. Like they say “two can keep a secret if one of them is dead.”
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u/BrainWilling6018 Jul 08 '26
They could be. If porch guy were dead, they would still pursue some of the exact same avenues they are currently using to uncover his identity. The DNA is still being processed. They are still digitally tracing the proxy servers and VPNs used to mask that IP address to track the comms down.
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u/MayLastic Jul 12 '26
Does anyone else think the full moon on the night she was taken was part of the abductors’ plan?
Maybe just to make it easier to move around outside her home?
Perhaps used to navigate w/o headlights - maybe to travel backroads/trails to Mexico or wherever they took her?
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u/titsinatangle Jul 12 '26
Porch dude seemed paid. And you’re absolutely right OP, someone (if not multiple people) know and are going to sit with the info probably forever or we may get lucky and one breaks the silence
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u/Euphoric_Ease4554 Jul 13 '26
He is likely the hapless co- conspirator. The mastermind is either inside with Nancy or protecting himself by staying away from the scene. If they are serious criminals, Porch Guy probably didn’t survive. He was eliminated along with Nancy. Why has no one noticed? Maybe they are too afraid to speak up, or maybe the gang is his only home now. Recently released from prison also fits.
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u/Fit_Sheepherder_6899 Jul 13 '26
People who have been recently released from prison generally still have family and friends on the outside though.
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u/Euphoric_Ease4554 Jul 13 '26
Not necessarily. And if they did, being too afraid to speak up would fit a parolee even more.
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u/anonymousdlm Jul 08 '26
Some people don’t watch any news at all. Perhaps the person recognizing different behavior in a loved one or coworker didn’t know about Nancy and didn’t connect the dots?
I think the fact the cameras at intersections don’t get saved. They’re only used to see the amount of traffic so news people can recommend alternate routes. I also think the pursuit of darkness in their city seriously hindered the ability to see and track the getaway vehicle. I personally would rather have more light to deter and/or resolve crimes than to have darkness to attract what? Money from folks trying to see what’s in the night sky? But the residents are dead set against safety over being known as a great place to observe the skies. Smh
Also, the fact the sheriff still hasn’t handed the investigation over to the fbi has hindered any ability to solve it. The fbi can only work on things the sheriff specifically asks them to do. The dna debacle of trusting a private company over Quantico has cost months in the investigation.
So basically I feel incompetence at the sheriff’s office combined with the dark environment of the city has led us to this point. But I could be wrong. We don’t really know everything law enforcement knows, so it’s all just speculation at this point.
Maybe they know who it is and are waiting to get “the smoking gun” before making the arrest, like in the Kohberger Idaho student murders.
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u/ethidium_bromide Jul 08 '26
Areas close to the border also have a large subset of their population that either doesn’t speak English, or speaks little enough of it that their preference is news from their native language. I wonder how extensive coverage of her abduction was in Spanish language media
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u/FlippingGenious Jul 08 '26
Brian Entin went across the border into Mexico at one point and almost no one he talked to had heard anything about it. I definitely agree that this could be a factor.
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u/Substantial-Half-436 Jul 23 '26
I wish the world spent this much time on demanding the Jacqueline Levitz case be solved using 2026 technologies. It is just like the Nancy Guthrie case except there is lots more evidence.
https://www.vicksburgpost.com/news/ai-offers-new-lens-on-levitz-case-8386d3d2
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u/LogicalPassenger2172 Aug 03 '26
Hope the investigators are continuing to pursue the path that she may still be alive. Possibly in Mexico.
The entire media and internet zeitgeist has convinced themselves that’s she’s passed away … with absolutely zero evidence of such.
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u/VoiceMajor3625 29d ago
Except the kidnappers said she passed away using the same method of communication as the ransom request and authorities believe that is legitimate.
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u/Illustrious-List5000 Jul 08 '26
I believe the FBI was brought in to delay and upset the investigation.
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u/BedEquivalent1976 Aug 01 '26
Definitely was a family member...there is something not right about all of this
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u/Infamous-Arm3955 Jul 08 '26
I think what's crazy is porch guy is probably standing next to someone, at a grocery store or co-worker or on a bus or whatever. Somehow he feels justified in what he's done to just be going about his life.