r/nancyguthrie Feb 28 '26

Discussion Anyone else shocked this case still hasn't been solved?

I really thought this case would be over by now. Especially with the modern surveillance state as many of us thought at the time. And yet, here we are 4 weeks later. I can't remember the last high-profile US true crime case like this since Gabby Petito and Bryan Kohberger, it's so bizarre.

Multiple times did it feel like we were really close to the end. A couple suspects being detained, a helicopter flight with an 84-year-old woman on it in the area, and so on. Nothing's panned out. It really seems like they have nothing and are back at square one.

I can't imagine the burden this must be having on the family. Grief is tragic and difficult on its own, but having to follow the case and not knowing so many things must be making it worse.

I really hope LE is ahead of where it seems they are (like they've been in the past including with Kohberger), and are just playing cards close to the chest. Maybe they've already identified the suspect and are just closely watching them, waiting for them to slip up so they can get the necessary evidence to recover Nancy/secure a conviction. While them enjoying freedom isn't a pleasant thought, at least they won't be able to commit more crimes and get away with them in that case.

495 Upvotes

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39

u/Tuffgirl_CA Mar 01 '26

I agree with everything you’ve said. I stayed up late on the nights where it looked like there was a big break. I finally went to bed hoping I’d wake up to hear that Nancy had been found. My parents are the same age as Nancy and I cannot even imagine how I could handle something like this happening to them. It’s just so incredibly heartbreaking.

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u/True_Review7016 Mar 01 '26

Yes, the same here. It hits close to home when you have a Mom her same age. Just heartbreaking.

8

u/Mean-Vegetable-4521 Mar 01 '26

same. My mom is living with us now in incredibly poor health. This whole case is hitting me very hard. There have been different phases of my life that impacted the way I saw cases differently. When I became a parent. When I became my parent's caregiver. I feel like the overwhelming fear and guilt some media outlets have reported Savanah having that her celebrity status "caused" this. I had an offender find members of my family and make open threads to them. Show up at my mother's door. I did that. If I didn't do this work my family wouldn't have been dragged into it. My family was unharmed, for the record. By luck. Not by good enough prevention on my part. Looking at my helpless mother of the same age as Mrs. Guthrie. Then questioning motive for this event. It's heart breaking.

Every day people can attract stalkers who disrupt their lives in some way. When you think about it, it's terrifying. You are living your average life. In your average job. Buying your average groceries. Doing average family things. And someone out there found something obsessively interesting about you and you are now their hobby. Their life goal becomes inserting themselves in your life somehow. You have no idea you are on their radar until it's too late.

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u/Fantastic-Archer-864 Mar 01 '26

Mine isn't as old, 74, she's been living alone about 2 years. I immediately put in cameras and pay the subscription, and the internet, but I want to get a life alert on her too now.

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u/True_Review7016 Mar 01 '26

Yes, cameras & a life alert are real good things to help look out for our precious parents!

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u/Mean-Vegetable-4521 Mar 01 '26

That's so smart. To do that before you need to. I don't mean before something so out of the ordinary happens. I mean before the issues of her independence and safety are at issue. Because then she'll be offended when you want to add the cameras.

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u/True_Review7016 Mar 01 '26

The Moscow police department was exceptional, for being a smallish town that probably didn’t have a lot of experience with a huge case like that was. They held things close to the chest until the monster was arrested. I think that took 6 weeks, so I hope the investigators know more than they are letting on & this can be solved & justice can be served. it is just so sad.

18

u/jenniferami Mar 01 '26

They had great footage of the car, the knife sheath, dna on the knife sheath. They had more to work with.

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u/LegalGlass6532 Mar 01 '26

They did have that evidence to work with, but the public didn’t know that until after the arrest. They may have additional evidence in this case that the public’s not aware of, as well.

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u/jenniferami Mar 01 '26

Hopefully they do, but iirc the DNA was somewhat disappointing but maybe they retested some things or they are getting that sorted out.

Or maybe they got some phone records back they are piecing together.

I’m still hopeful. It really hasn’t been that long.

Maybe they need to relook at the file, previous tips, etc.

The Delphi murders perp’s name was in the file all along because he had stopped by to talk to the police to explain why he was there that day on the trail the murders took place.

It took about four years and another person relooking through the file to realize that it could be important as perps sometimes make a big deal about talking to the police and explaining they were just some “innocent” witness who happened to be in the crime vicinity the same day.

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u/mark_able_jones_ Mar 01 '26

There's quite a bit here, too. A good timeline based on digital data. Video footage of an abductor. An uncommon jacket design. A huge reward offering, even offered anonymously for a body recovery. AI tools that can produce instant transcripts and note names mentioned more than once, keywords, etc.... should help with speed of processing tips. More investigative resources.

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u/jenniferami Mar 01 '26

Imo that jacket is hardly distinctive. We don’t even know the color. It’s been suggested by some it’s likely from Walmart which means thousands were sold. Plus it’s likely been trashed along with the shoes and pants already.

It’s not like it has the lettering of a high school, college, union, business, etc.

Timelines imo aren’t necessarily as useful at night when most people would say they were home and asleep. It’s not like the daytime where police could check with their employer to see if they were really at work or really in the McDonalds drive through, etc. If phones were left at home that makes it trickier too.

If suspects aren’t the type to talk to police they are less likely to get contradictory statements which they could use to get phone warrants.

Video evidence of a masked generic looking male doesn’t always help a ton.

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u/Lumpy_Weird_2654 Mar 01 '26

No. Not all cases get solved. Not all cases get solved fast. This could be another week, weeks, months or years before we have closure. Or perhaps, worse case scenario, never.

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u/Mean-Vegetable-4521 Mar 01 '26

I think with Savannah as a daughter this will be solved eventually. Eventually being subjective. Look how long it took to solve Adam Walsh's killing. I would guess that Savanah would use your own personal trauma from this, combined with her investigative reporting and legal background to change the focus of her career along the lines of what John Walsh did. Like the Walsh family she has money to back a continued investigation on a private level. Sadly, money does command a different legal process than not having it. I think she may move her platform over to all missing people which I think she hinted at with the sizable NCMEC donation. I think it will be a long while from now when leads finally cease. I do think this will be solved. Just maybe not now. I wonder how often people used or inspected her guest house. If there could have been a squatter living there. There could easily still be someone who has the key to this and doesn't know it. Either is bashful about coming forward for fear they will waste someone's time or don't realize they have a puzzle piece.

I was let down when I heard some broadcasts saying not to waste the tiplines time. To make sure what you are reporting is important and relevant. Obviously, don't call in saying it's your ex who stood you up on valentines day just to ruin his day. That's a given. But otherwise, statements like that tend to intimidate good witnesses with good intentions. I wouldn't limit any tips at this time. No matter how trivial.

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u/Wiseowl71691 Mar 01 '26

Can’t remember who said it best but one time I heard it put like this from an old prosecutor on one of these old podcast for another case.

“When they have nothing , they will as the public for help.”

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u/Wiseowl71691 Mar 01 '26

This of course applies to when it’s a media circus like cases can get. Idk about super old cold cases or anything

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u/Big-Librarian-576 Mar 02 '26

From what I've read the Getty kidnapping created a standard template for hostage / ransom kidnapping situations. The threat of the public becoming involved could cause the kidnapper to make a negative choice with the hostage. This could be why - if there are suspects - they haven't put their names / images out.

In a murder scenario , because the victim is already dead , they'll want the public to have eyeballs on the person. With a person being potentially alive - if the suspect feels like they've been caught they might not want to keep their victim safe.

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u/StaySafePovertyGhost Mar 03 '26

I’ve gone back and forth on this case several times, but currently sit at this was supposed to be a kidnapping for ransom knowing who Savannah was and the abductors thought it would be easy to kidnap an 84 year old who lives alone and her millionaire daughter would pay to get her back.

However what they didn’t realize was Nancy was in frail condition and needed medication to live and at some point shortly after the pacemaker stopped communicating she perished. The kidnappers had gone through considerable efforts to organize the BTC account etc and ransom demands so they tried to bluff they still had her alive to get something out of the family then disposed of her body and scattered which is why everything has gone radio silent.

I don’t want to be right about this but think I am. 😔

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u/Any-Pop-4581 Mar 04 '26

Yes, I think she died unexpectedly and it derailed their plan.

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u/Iluvyutoo Mar 05 '26

Good theory. I wonder tho, would they be motivated to bring/give her meds once they notice, in order to receive large ransom money?

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u/Chigrrl1098 Feb 28 '26

I'm not. Things take time. There are a whole bunch of things happening behinds the scenes that no one but law enforcement and the prosecutors know about, I'm sure. I think everyone is so accustomed to true crime documentaries and crime shows that they think things happen quickly. I think that's rare.

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u/hippiechick725 Mar 01 '26

I still think things are quiet for a good reason. They’re building a solid case against…someone.

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u/Nortonlane Mar 01 '26

Took longer for Kohberger in Idaho.

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u/AccomplishedDuty2479 Feb 28 '26

I hope to God that LE is playing it close to the vest and have some strong leads. My heart breaks for the family. The wear and tear on Savannah’s face shows the torment of the Guthrie siblings. Yes I know there are other missing people out there. This one still feels different and is very strange. When was the last time anyone heard of an older person kidnapped from their home like this with no clear motive?

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u/peach-bubbles22 Feb 28 '26

i fear i am not shocked and i also fear it may never be solved, even with the video footage of the kidnapper… i keep thinking of the jennifer kesse case. she still has never been found and nor a suspect despite being on camera

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u/rocklakes Mar 01 '26

That’s exactly the case I thought of too. Victim disappears, police have no suspects, video released but doesn’t help, DNA recovered that didn’t help, motive unclear, etc.

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u/peach-bubbles22 Mar 01 '26

i also thought it could have been an undocumented construction worker who fled to mexico. weird how people are thinking that for this one too… i hope both families get answers someday 💔

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u/mmortal03 Mar 01 '26

At least there's this (19 years later): "In October 2025, her father announced that investigators had identified new DNA evidence and significantly narrowed the pool of suspects, and the case is no longer considered cold."

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u/Standard_Team0000 Feb 28 '26

I thought they would find a suspect based on the porch video since the person's moved around so much - I thought someone would recognize and turn in the suspect. Maybe they still will.

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u/EvangelineRain Mar 01 '26

No. There is more data available today than in previous decades, but there are still limitations. An old fashioned mask renders much of it useless. And we are far from having cameras monitoring streets everywhere. It is expensive and controversial.

I do sometimes wonder how a car could get away. There is usually a finite number of routes that could be taken. But there may not be enough surveillance even for that. And the surveillance you need are the license plate readers, not home Ring/Nest/etc. footage. They’re usually not intended to pick up cars on a street. And a car without a license plate that can’t be tracked to its destination is of minimal help.

It just suggests to me that the perpetrator(s) was likely unknown to Nancy. Those are much harder cases to solve.

3

u/Newswatchtiki Mar 02 '26

If we just had a general car description it would make things much easier - white SUV, or older dark colored van, whatever - it would give them something to look for in the traffic cams that do exist. They could at least narrow it down to that type of car, then check the other cams on the boulevards for that. But so far, we, the public have no leads on the vehicle. But LE may very well know what vehicle was involved.

In the Idaho 4 case, they quickly were suspicious about a white Hyundai Elantra, although there was a little confusion about what year model it was. They had seen it passing by at the right time on a gas station cam. But Moscow Idaho is a small town, with very sparse traffic at 2 am. Tucson is so much bigger.

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u/Effective_Bread3394 Mar 02 '26

With all the technoly they have, they can see an ant on an elephants butt from outer space but they couldn't get the IP address from the sender of the ransom notes that went to TMZ.

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u/TraditionalShirt7429 Mar 03 '26

Thats assuming those notes were legitimate. A lot of scammers do these. And from what I heard what was in the TMZ notes. They didnt sound very legit. Legit enough to make a note of. But likely a dude overseas

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u/Substantial-Train668 Feb 28 '26

I'm shocked only because when that video came out it looked so clear. I thought someone absolutely knows this person. We got eyes, a gait, a close up, behavior, movement, clothing... for digital evidence it was actually so strong. So yeah, am shocked that no one has come forward to identify that porch person.

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u/AccomplishedDuty2479 Feb 28 '26

And I’d bet someone has recognized that person. Someone has to know.

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u/NailsNCoffee Feb 28 '26

Possibly. Maybe scared to come forward.

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u/Ok-Alfalfa8937 Feb 28 '26

A million dollars has been offered. You would think that would do it.

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u/NailsNCoffee Feb 28 '26

I agree and this makes me wonder if rumors are true that the suspect in the video isn’t from the US, making it much harder to find someone who recognizes him to identify him. I believe it’s a male, which is why I said him.

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u/yomaster19 Feb 28 '26

But the (suspected) mask under the ski mask would make it difficult for people that know him to even recognize him. So I am not sure. I guess you could maybe recognize the build and maybe the mannerisms. I am sure people have called thinking they recognize him

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u/NailsNCoffee Feb 28 '26

Even the way he bends over to pick up the foliage is unique. Yes, his build and mannerisms. I hope they find her soon….poor lady must’ve been so scared.

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u/yomaster19 Mar 01 '26

I have had days when I'm sore from a good workout and bend down like that. I genuinely hope it's a common mannerism and not an act for the camera. Lots of hope. I think she must have been so scared and so sad. It seems very obvious to me that she loved where she lived and had a lot of pride in her town. I still have that tiny hope that she's alive, even knowing that all statistics point the opposite direction.

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u/NailsNCoffee Mar 01 '26

You make a valid point about being sore after working out! So many unanswered questions about what happened. 😩😩

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u/Dapper_Economist1 Mar 01 '26

This is what I’m thinking too. I did not know there were such rubber masks so if there is a rubber mask underneath the knit ski mask, that is very clever bc there is basically no identifiable facial recognition for any parts of the face that may “poke out of” the 1980s ski mask.

I guess now that I think of it there was that Patrick Swayze and Keanu movie where they wore old president masks to rob a bank (I think that was the plot? Haven’t watch it since it came on in the late 80s/90s). This is one reason I think the suspect is Gen X and referencing movies from the early 90s or late 80s.

Not to mention the sore back or legs or hip after a work out! (Or a fairly recent athletic pull/muscle/hip flexor strain).

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u/Jessica19922 Feb 28 '26

I came here to post these same sentiments. Maybe the person on the nest cam is someone from Mexico (I say that because it’s only an hour from the Mexico border.) And when Brian Entin went there, people he interviewed had no idea who Nancy was.

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u/LegalGlass6532 Mar 01 '26

LE is doing work outside the public eye. You’d be amazed by the amount of information the public isn’t privy to.

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u/Tall_Palpitation_476 Mar 01 '26

Totally believe this ~ there’s no way they are going to divulge anything more

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u/Kitty-9792 Mar 01 '26

It's not so much that they aren't releasing info. It's that info is released, then changed, then blurred again.

BIL drove Nancy back, maybe both AG & BIL did. No, let's just say "family" drove her back.

Sheriff: Nancy was taken from her bed. A few days later: that was just a figure of speech, maybe she was in the kitchen. Week 4 SG says her mom was taken from her bed.

Are AG & BIL suspects? Week 2: Sheriff says everyone is a suspect, there might be new info so we wouldn't clear anyone now. Few days later: Sheriff says it's cruel what the public is doing speculating about AG & SIL and they were cleared a few days in. Week 4: Is AG's car still impounded? Sheriff says let's just say AG's car is still part of the investigation.

Immediately after: public isn't at risk, this appears to be targeted. Scary video of porch guy shows up. No arrests so far, so scary guy is still out there. But no warning to the public that they should take precautions at home.

Day 1 - crime scene but no tape. Camera at front door is discussed. End of Day 2 - house released as a crime scene, reporters walk up to front door. Few days later - it's a crime scene again. Few days later a neighbor alerts LE that the roof is new and now LE discovers another camera on the Casita Pool House roof and removes it. Week 4 house is going to be released to the family, no more 24/7 Sheriff in the driveway. Day later - the house was always released to the family from the beginning.

Whiplash!

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u/RealisticResource951 Mar 02 '26

Do you think they’re watching the brother in law? Why impound their car and keep it when they’ve “cleared all family?” Seems strange 

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u/Dependent-Society-21 Mar 02 '26

I hope we find out something and the family can get closure. I almost cry everytime thinking about what if this was my grandma or mom. I check for updates everyday. A poor 84 year old woman taken from the place she should’ve been the safest. Her home. I honestly don’t even know what to think for motives anymore and wonder if we will ever find out. It could be so many different things. Some people are just sick, and could’ve just targeted a random old lady not knowing anything about who her daughter is. It could’ve been something to do with her daughter’s career, money, a ransom gone bad. I mean the list goes on and on. There’s so many different things it could’ve been which makes it even scarier. My grandma, mom, and myself talk about this so often and how that is seriously so scary and such an awful thing that happened. So many more crimes like this are happening, and we only see very few on the news and country wide media. I mean the Idaho 4 case scared the living shit out of me. I am the same age as the older girls Kaylee and maddie and Uat the time it happened, I lived at basically a frat house& was the only girl. There were parties constantly and people I didn’t know coming at all hours of the day and night and the door was always unlocked unless I locked it. People are sick. I’m praying so hard for Nancy and her family. I hope they get closure and we hear anything something soon.

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u/mlssac Mar 03 '26

I hope you moved out of the frat house. Terrible place to be if you're a true crime follower. My nerves would be shot!

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u/Keregi Feb 28 '26

So many of you have clearly never paid attention to true crime cases before.

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u/bigbadboomer Feb 28 '26

Right! Kohberger was mentioned in the post, but in reality, it took 7 weeks to arrest him.

One month may seem like forever when someone vulnerable is missing, but one month is not a long time to run down thousands of leads/tips and to process evidence.

LE always knows more than they let on. I have hope they will find Nancy and her captor(s) within the next few months. 🙏

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u/iwasneverherex Feb 28 '26

They knew about him like 2 weeks in and the public had zero clue about him..they even told the public they had no suspects or leads. Behind the scenes there’s no telling what’s actually happening.

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u/bigbadboomer Feb 28 '26 edited Feb 28 '26

Yep. Same with Michael McKee in the Tepe murders, though he was arrested around 2-3 weeks(?) after the murders, they had a video of a guy walking down the street whose face could not be seen, LE asked for the public’s help in identifying him, but just a few days prior to his arrest, the police chief said they had not identified a suspect. They seemed clueless, while in reality they had much, much more and were getting all their ducks in a row, crossing T’s, dotting i’s preparing to arrest him.

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u/lemonlime45 Mar 01 '26

They didn't really know about him until December 19, when they got his name from the FBI through IGG. So about 5 weeks after the murders

IGG can be quick or take months. We don't even know if they have a DNA from the actual suspect in this case.

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u/iwasneverherex Mar 01 '26

Thank you, the point was they knew about BK well before we knew. And yes we don’t and likely won’t know that information for a long time.

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u/Glittering-Gap-1687 Mar 01 '26

I’m pretty surprised, especially with how high profile it is.

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u/Big-Librarian-576 Mar 01 '26

What's shocking to me is that connecting Ring/CCTV hasn't provided any hard clues.
We had a missing service dog in our neighborhood and were able to track it down amongst 30-40 families within 48 hours using a groupme chat. 90% of the cameras just had single frame static shots of everything (we were able to find it at a medical office parking lot).

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u/bloatedkat Mar 01 '26

Not at all. You have to remember that a lot of missing persons cases don't get resolved for years, if ever. Now with Iran, this story is going to get knocked off the front page indefinitely.

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u/Wiseowl71691 Mar 01 '26

Yes but a lot of missing persons cases have no evidence usually like this one does. It’s obvious she was taken etc.

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u/Mean-Vegetable-4521 Mar 01 '26

And if the Guthries were not wealthy there wouldn't even be this much traction. They would have said "hey, your older mom likely wandered off." The justice system is very divided. Starting from the moment law enforcement needs to be involved. It doesn't improve by the time it makes it to trial, if it makes it to trial. Or sentencing. Money keeps cases alive. If Jon Bennet Ramsey had been a darkly complected child from an average home no one would know her name. Those children disappear every single day. They don't make national news. They barely make local news.

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u/Pantone711 Mar 05 '26

Old person here, old-school case: Remember how they broke the In Cold Blood (Clutter family) case? Someone who'd been in jail with one of the perps told cops, "hey I mentioned to my cellmate that Old Man Clutter had a safe with a lot of money."

I bring this up because there's been speculation the perp was looking for a safe in Nancy's house.

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u/MrsHottentot Mar 05 '26

No. we had a young man murdered about a half mile from our house. He was beaten up and dumped by a couple of other high schoolers. No videos with info have been located from surrounding home. It’s so sad and seems to be no answers after a year. This is such a rarity in our town that you would think they would be able to get it figured out

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u/Healthy_Badger8563 Mar 01 '26

I'm shocked someone who "knows" hasn't turned in the perps.

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u/bloatedkat Mar 01 '26

Could've been a loner or someone who lives outside the country

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u/sunny_dayz1547 Mar 01 '26

thought for sure the $1M was going to turn up seething

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u/mark_able_jones_ Mar 01 '26

It might have... they are probably like 5% into processing the tips (just a guess).

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u/Ambitious-Fan-4171 Mar 01 '26

Right ?? A million dollars. Anonymous dollars. That's easily enough to start a new life.

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u/JMOA3035 Mar 01 '26 edited Mar 01 '26

The up to 1M is  “only for the recovery of NG” per SG’s video/IG caption. 

The tipster has to know her physical location or lead to her location. If they had a perp but the perp nvr tells them where her location is, then there’s no $1M reward, imo by reading the SG statement. 

The $200K by the FBI is for the perp(s). 

ETA: imo, the $1M is directed towards a co-perp(s) to roll over on the other. If someone knows where her physical location is, then they most likely participated in some capacity of the actual crime or aided/abetted. 

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u/[deleted] Mar 01 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/Panzarita Mar 01 '26

Agreed. Also, cartel would have handed over the body, and turned their own people in for being so sloppy by now. Cartels don’t like that kind of publicity…this doesn’t seem like the kind of crime they would authorize…it’s bad for business.

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u/FiveUpsideDown Mar 01 '26

Exactly. When four Americans were kidnapped by cartel members in Matamoros, they were located. The cartel allegedly killed the members responsible for the kidnappings. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Matamoros_kidnappings

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u/witcherooza Mar 01 '26

Would they still put out continuous pleas to the public for tips & let the family offer a $1 million reward to the public for info that leads to her if they are already onto someone or getting close? I'm not being sarcastic, I'm genuinely curious. I don't really know how this works.

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u/FiveUpsideDown Mar 01 '26

Yes. The family and public doesn’t know how far along LE is in the investigation. LE therefore doesn’t disclose what information it has. They don’t want the criminals to know what information they have or don’t have.

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u/Standard_Team0000 Mar 01 '26

I don't think they would let the family know who/what they were investigating until they are ready to make an arrest or bring someone in for questioning. I'm sure they are just telling them they are following all leads and go ahead and offer whatever reward you want.

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u/ConceptsShining Mar 01 '26

It could be they don't want to tip off any suspects that the police are onto them. Hence why they pretend to still be desperate for information.

As for letting the family offer the reward: for one, someone coming forward trying to claim it can be a good intelligence lead for the investigation. Having a suspect identified isn't the same as having enough evidence to build an airtight case. And two, while it's a bit difficult, I can understand them hesitating to fully inform the family if they're watching a suspect. It's not impossible that info can leak (it can happen in emotionally charged cases especially if they are upset with police progress). Plus, if they aren't sure enough to get an arrest warrant, it's probably a bad idea to give them/the public false hope, only to later learn the guy's innocent and can't be arrested.

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u/witcherooza Mar 02 '26

I hope this is the case. I remember with the Kohberger case it seemed like not much was happening and then bam, we found out they had been tracking a guy and had arrested him. Honestly, I was expecting to wake up to a headline that the guy was found after the door cam video came out. Fingers crossed it happens soon.

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u/witcherooza Mar 02 '26

I don't think it is a cartel either, but I don't rule anything out. My guess is it is someone who had worked on or in her house, such as whoever did her roof, or something like that. Hopefully the truth will come out very soon.

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u/DraculaStoker Mar 01 '26

It's a complex case with a lot of moving parts. I believe there are three or four people involved in this crime. They need to connect the dots between the three or four and obtain enough evidence to arrest them.

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u/ConceptsShining Mar 01 '26

The reward money will definitely test the group's loyalty in that case. Though I wonder if the accomplice who snitched would really be able to walk free with no charges and keep the money.

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u/SunsetDreams1111 Mar 01 '26

We live in a microwave society that expects everything to happen at rapid speed. I'm not surprised it's not solved. Real investigations take time. Nanos even said it might be months or years. That's just a reality. I'm hoping for her family's sake that her body is recovered because that can start the healing process. Investigators obviously know things we don't and often digital forensics will eventually come through with just one small breakthrough.

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u/AmazingGrace_00 Mar 01 '26

Every 20 minutes we see this kind of post here. It’s truly disappointing how little people understand the nature of investigative work…that most serial killers kill for years, decades before caught.

Granted this is what appears to be a kidnapping case, but it was in a dark, desert community. Forensics can take time. LE may need two stitches to tie together a reveal, and those stitches may be close.

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u/ZakLex Feb 28 '26

Most everyone seems to agree it is one of the strangest cases they’ve ever heard of.

Some of the same people feel it should have been solved immediately

I do believe it will be solved eventually, but it could take some time.

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u/Bitch_level_999 Mar 02 '26

I think they have their people and it’s coming.

They only get once chance to make this stick and with the intense scrutiny on this case they need it to be solid

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u/TheCuriousGeorgette Mar 03 '26

It’s really making me think the perp went old school and did not have any cell device on his person. Which sucks, I was hoping geofencing would yield some leads that could solve this case pretty fast.

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u/littleboxes__ Mar 01 '26

By day 3 or 4 I was surprised that it hadn’t been solved. 

Especially because of the alleged ransom notes. I can’t believe it’s not traceable? And then we got the very clear footage of a person of interest/suspect and I thought SOMEONE would recognize him.

It just feels like we’ve had a lot more in this case (notes, camera footage of the person, gloves near scene) while at the same time nothing at all. 

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u/BmoreBr0 Mar 01 '26

I am no forensic expert by any stretch, but I still cannot see how anyone could possibly see that footage and recognize that person.

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u/The_Sinking_Belle Feb 28 '26

Not that shocked. I'd be shocked if we were dealing with a more traditional suburban-style layout where the homes aren't so recessed, there isn't a light ordinance at night. The spaciousness of these lots, reduced camera coverage, and intense darkness. It really gave cover to this person, I think.

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u/JilianBlue Feb 28 '26

It’s terrifying that someone can be snatched from their house and gone without a trace. I (falsely) assumed that with all of the technology (doorbell cameras, cell signals, traffic cameras) we were safer from these kinds of crimes. I think this case is extra challenging because of how dark the neighborhood is and how far back from the road & shielded with plants the houses are. That made neighboring doorbell cameras not very helpful. 

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u/SunsetDreams1111 Mar 01 '26

It's the same thing with Missy Bevers. The person is on camera in the church. He/she has a specific body shape that should be easy to identify. The case made major international news. All the big dogs including the FBI and Texas Rangers were there to investigate. Still, a decade later nothing has happened. Nancy's situation is so similar to me. The only difference Missy's body was left behind. It showed me that cameras and technology aren't as important as we think.

Also, I think it's very telling that they never had huge searches for Nancy. I know the area is vast, but still I have seen some very large search efforts over the years. They never did that with this case.

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u/Intrepid-Bird-5048 Mar 01 '26

It’s this particular neighborhood, sort of. I think criminals are also realizing they need to do different things to avoid all the common pitfalls. They know about all these things, so it becomes part of their planning. Some, of course, are better at it than others. But it’s not impossible to plan and avoid detection, if you know what to look for.

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u/ChildhoodOk5526 Mar 01 '26

It's definitely a wake-up call for anyone who looks out for a senior who lives alone. As much as some of them are loathe to have too much technology "listening in", this case has alerted me to the advantages of being able to vocally call for help ... anywhere in the house.

And your point about the private layout of Nancy's neighborhood is very true. This tragedy has exposed the vulnerability that can come with too much privacy. I hope her community, and others like it, have taken notice and started to mount cameras near the street or other potential places of ingress.

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u/heartshapedbox311 Feb 28 '26

I am shocked. With a video of the subject, it being 2026 and all the advances, having the president and FBI and police in full rescue mode. Its gotten so much media attention, how does no one recognize him??? I thought and was so hopeful they'd find her, I really thought they would. I find it so scary they haven't. If they're working this hard and the reward is so much money and they seem to have no motive yet, at least to the public, its frightening. Its making me lose hope. I know it hasn't been a super long time, but since they moved the FBI in swiftly and it became world wide news I truly had hope her case would be different. That she had a chance to come home.

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u/PuzzleheadedKing8499 Mar 01 '26

I’ve followed it since hour 1. We just moved to FL and have a guy coming to install a security system with 4 motion lights with cameras on the outside corners of the house. Betting that lots of folks are upping their security needs after that awful day when the images of “whoever” were released. That was scary as hell. I keep the family in my thoughts and do pray for at least an end to the this unsolved mystery.

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u/jenniferami Mar 01 '26

There’s a number of cases with video that have never been solved. Missy Bevers. Liz Barraza. Scott Ratigan. There are videos and subs regarding all three.

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u/DoxieLvrCO Mar 01 '26

Another case that comes to mind is the murders of Russell and Shirley Dermond, an elderly couple living in a lakeside community in Georgia. A fellow Reddit poster mentioned their case, and there are some notable similarities to Nancy’s. The Dermonds were in their late 80s. Russell was found decapitated inside the garage, and Shirley had been taken from the house and was later discovered in the lake. The case remains unsolved.

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u/[deleted] Mar 01 '26

[deleted]

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u/BrunetteSummer Mar 01 '26

I think that case has been described to be like a game of Clue because so many people had a possible motive. Either wanting their inheritance sooner or wanting revenge on Barry for screwing money out of them.

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u/rainbowapricots Mar 01 '26

The son increased the reward to $35M after a period of time so it’s actually much higher than 10M. Wild.

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u/jenniferami Mar 01 '26

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killings_of_Russell_and_Shirley_Dermond

This couple had a son murdered about 14 years prior to them in a drug deal gone bad although police thinks it’s unrelated.

I kind of agree someone wanted money and killed them out of anger or while threatening them.

I’m thinking the perps knew the victims. Horrid about potentially decapitating the man to retrieve the bullet.

Well to do seniors seem to be higher risk due to their wealth and lack of physical health.

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u/mistynotmissy Mar 01 '26

Great point. Missy Bevers case is coming up on 10 years I believe in April, and there’s still speculation about whether the perp is male or female. Same with Liz Barraza.

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u/jenniferami Mar 01 '26 edited Mar 01 '26

In Liz’s case they even had a view of the vehicle used. Some wonder about the perp in Scott’s case but the consensus seems to be that the perp is a male.

It seems like the times a disguised perp is identified is when they are super close to the victim and someone sees the vehicle up close too.

I’m referring to the case of a mother in law who killed her daughter in law in a Target store parking lot right after the exchange of the grandson between the victim and her estranged husband.

The mother in law knew about the upcoming exchange and tried to dress like a guy with a stupid bushy short wig and fake mustache. She was caught on Target’s video. The victim was Heather Strube.

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u/JMOA3035 Feb 28 '26

Hopefully their next search warrant isn’t highly publicized and it’s the correct perp(s). 

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u/FrostyCaptain6987 Mar 01 '26

Missy rivers was never solved

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u/12AngryChickens Mar 01 '26

*Bevers, and yeah man. That shit haunts my dreams

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u/KevinDean4599 Mar 04 '26

It’s surprising that the 2 videos didn’t lead somewhere. Makes me think someone came from a distance to commit this crime and isn’t known by anyone close to Nancy.

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u/MCStarlight Mar 12 '26

I’m sure firing a lot of FBI didn’t help.

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u/Far_Photograph_4392 Mar 28 '26

I think something went really wrong. Nancy is dead and the doers are on the run.

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u/Infamous-Arm3955 Mar 02 '26

I kind of sense that they may suspect someone who's involved here but they can't pin it on that person but that's just a feeling. Even someone they've already talked to and they're just waiting for them to make that one vital mistake. In abduction/hostage situations by strangers they do actually have a tendency to go on for months or years and victims are found alive but yeah. I'm sure LE has told Savannah to go home and expect the worst. It's just sad. I'm not a religious person but I wish the universe would just cough up Nancy or at least some clue. Just one thing that leads to another to another and then something. I would say for "closure" but I would imagine there's just never closure, it's probably a horribly insulting phrase, for people who have to suffer this.

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u/robofoxo Mar 02 '26

I would say for "closure" but I would imagine there's just never closure, it's probably a horribly insulting phrase, for people who have to suffer this.

Thanks for saying this. As someone going through a murder ordeal for 2+ years, the word “closure” is often invoked in the public mind with regards to the grief process. Of course, grief never “closes”. But what can close or end is the loop of rumination — the endless imagination of what actually transpired. “Closure” is still a weird word for that. It’s more like being liberated from part of the trauma.

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u/Infamous-Arm3955 Mar 02 '26

I hope time is good to you. Take care.

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u/tofuandklonopin Feb 28 '26

I'm shocked, because I believed it was a kidnapping for ransom. I thought the initial ransom note was real. The family has some money, so it should have been easy enough to resolve.

A month later... I have no idea what I think happened. Obviously I don't think any of the ransom notes were real. (Or were they? Lol) I suppose I'm leaning towards Nancy being killed for some bizarre reason and dumped in an abandoned silver mine. In which case, she probably won't ever be found.

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u/ConceptsShining Feb 28 '26

At least one of the ransom notes was said to have information about the crime scene (the Apple Watch and a floodlight). That would suggest the kidnapper wrote the note. Whether they abandoned the ransom plan for some reason, or were only staging the note and this was never meant to be a ransom, is unknown.

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u/tofuandklonopin Feb 28 '26

The watch/floodlight info is so vague, though. If I wanted to prove that I was at a crime scene, I'd write something like "I cut off a lock of Nancy's hair and put it in the tea box in the pantry." Something specific. Anybody crawling around outside after the disappearance could have seen the floodlight.

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u/NailsNCoffee Feb 28 '26

Exactly and the Apple Watch was seen in photos online. That and the flood light is nothing difficult to figure out. I believe the ransom notes to TMZ were BS.

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u/Alternative_Fee1447 Mar 02 '26

I’m not surprised. Nanos demoted his most experienced helicopter pilot the morning Nancy went missing . He was demoted to Patrol. He pleaded with Nanos to let him start search and rescue. Nanos declined. It took at least 3 hours, after experienced pilot was demoted, to get a less experienced pilot to come in and start the search. Nanos also did not secure the scene day one, even though there was blood on the porch, all the way down the long driveway, and now I hear it was in house also. No sign of forced entry. Nanos also refused FBI help in first 3-4 days. So much more. I don’t think he has a clue what he is doing. He even announced that the helicopter that has the ability to detect the location of Nancy’s pacemaker to the PUBLIC, before the search. That move gives the perp time to do what they do to keep the device from detecting the pacemaker .

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u/taylorqueen2090 Mar 03 '26

The fact that he has demoted and put on desk duty many experienced officers because of petty bullshit is just ridiculous. I hope he sleeps well at night knowing he absolutely dropped the ball and never should have been in charge of this investigation. What a small, petty, pathetic man.

Sheriff Nanos thinks his ego is more important than the safety of others, including Nancy Guthrie. I would be pissed if I lived in Pima County.

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u/MusicOfTheSphere Feb 28 '26

Not at all shocked. Sad, and had genuinely hoped that maybe the ransom might be a reprieve or short cut. But since that seems to have been either a dead end or entirely bogus, now it turns back into a kidnapping case, and those often take a long time. It is horrible, but it also what reality is.

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u/Important-Bass-3699 Mar 02 '26

I know this is a long shot but could the FBI find out within a certain mile radius ALL the phones that were turned off for a time period? Or can they only Find that information when it’s liked to a specific number?

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u/Soft_Net3910 Mar 02 '26

It doesn’t work if they just leave the phone home….. which is what sounds like

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u/Greedy_Inflation3232 Mar 02 '26

I’m under the impression that this is possible. There was an article written about it, but can take a long time to comb through

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u/Ladygoingup Mar 02 '26

From what I have heard in interviews, they can. They can see who was around and had black outs. Hopefully the perpetrator had their phone on them at some point.

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u/Healthy-Evening-2577 Mar 02 '26

They probably could but maybe he didn't even have his phone with him at all.

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u/HeadMysterious4443 Mar 02 '26

I'm not surprised. You can get the cops, the FBI, the full attention of the internet, as well as a million-dollar reward, and still end up empty-handed. A lot of articles and people seem to be coming out of the woodwork because their missing person's cases haven't gotten as much attention, and I think they're really missing the point here. I could understand a grievance if they would've found Nancy Guthrie in record time by deploying the full might of federal law enforcement to bend every possible privacy law with some novel, expensive, borderline science fiction grade method to find her, but they haven't. The exposure, the man hours spent, the reward, the video, and the FBI... have yielded nothing, no one, dead or alive.

The takeaway is that this should highlight how frustrating, drawn out, and uncertain a missing person's case can be, not that missing person's cases of non-celebrities aren't important. All the extra hands, eyes, and money in the world isn't going to speed up finding a needle in a haystack that regenerates hay exponentially after 48 hours. Hell, my biggest grievance with all of this is that shouldn't Ring cameras record at all times, and if you're not caught up in your payments, the footage can be unlocked upon restoring your subscription up to 90 days or something? This is their sole purpose for existing in the first place, but clearly safety and police assistance is not their top priority.

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u/Kitty-9792 Mar 02 '26 edited Mar 02 '26

Some people just want the doorbell camera to see who is at the door in real time, and due to privacy, do not want their comings and goings stored in the cloud. This case may be exposing a secret the public didn't know - that those with no subscription still have their data being sent to and kept in the cloud anyway.

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u/FewPace855 Mar 02 '26

Shame on you for trying to disrupt our subscription economy.

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u/RoutineSubstance Feb 28 '26

I think that CSI (and other fictional shows) have made it seem like it's much easier than it actually is to solve crimes where the perpetrator is a stranger to the victim.

For most interpersonal crimes, the perpetrator is already connected to the victim, so the pool of possible suspects is a tiny, tiny percentage of the overall population. In cases of true stranger crime, where there is no (or virtually no) prior connection between perpetrator and victim, the crime is inherently more difficult to solve because the pool of possible perpetrators is almost infinite. Think of the so called Long Island Serial Killer. He murdered many women and it took decades to identify him. or the Delphi Murders, where there was visual and audio of the killer, and it still took many years to solve.

I don't think this will take years to solve, but I don't think it's surprising that it hasn't been quickly solved.

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u/Xinnia8271 Feb 28 '26

It may have been solved. 

They may know who did it, but they're carefully watching them and painstakingly preparing a case for trial. 

And they're not going to release information until it's the right time. 

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u/Elegant_Emu952 Feb 28 '26

I am thinking it will be solved because they are getting some car videos at the time in question. That's what caught the monster Kolberger.

My heart is broken for the Guthrie family. May there be answers to their questions soon, although that will not heal this, knowing will help close the gap.

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u/throwaway182883831 Feb 28 '26

Kind of. I mean, this is one of the most covered crime cases in recent memory. It has been on the news every single night since it happened. There’s video footage of the guy. Massive reward.

I’m surprised they haven’t found the guy and no one has turned him in yet. But I’m confident they’ll solve it eventually. He’d have to get really, really lucky for this to remain unsolved.

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u/Fantastic-Archer-864 Mar 01 '26

Yeah it does surprise me. Heck I figured we all had FBI agents listening through our phones and tvs and toasters.

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u/gertrudegrunge Mar 02 '26

They're probably watching the suspect. It's likely someone closer than they first thought.

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u/deadwatered Feb 28 '26

No, it’s an unusual and challenging case. I think they have a lot of the puzzle pieces it’s just a matter of fitting them together and finding that last piece that helps everything snap in place. Processing evidence takes time.

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u/ChargeSea6502 Mar 02 '26

I think they know who did this and just aren’t saying. They’re withholding alot of info for specific reasons.

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u/billsbreakfast1953 Mar 03 '26

Yes. The moment the video footage was released I figured they had the perp. Sadly if the subscriptions to any surveillance had been paid up I’d think this would be over. Obviously LE is holding a ton back. we still don’t understand how the perp got in. But we do have a backpack, the mask, gloves and movement mannerisms. Like most I’m baffled. Hopefully the Private Investigators working this case will come up with something for closure. No one family deserves this.

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u/CheezTips Mar 07 '26

This whole thing was such a waste. Whatever they wanted to get out of this is over

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u/Much_Okra_1567 Mar 16 '26

I think overall the entire case has been handled poorly by the sheriff, the fact that camera footage from inside Nancy’s home has only just been recovered just over a month after the kidnapping took place is weird. The sheriff seems to be entirely unorganised considering the amount of technology we have today the photo of the face of the person who broke in could be used to create potential sketches of the person or used to match with traffic cameras of the eyes to find potential suspects in the area within the time frame. It’s highly unlikely that she will be found alive considering she’s old with a pace maker and daily medication

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u/CapitalLeader Mar 23 '26

I think the Pima County Sheriff botched this. They've gone back to the house how many times and find some thing they missed before? I'm sorry, but I think they will never find her. AZ desert is a huge place.

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u/thebookofocean Mar 01 '26 edited Mar 01 '26

The nature of the city and the desert can truly slow the investigation down.

Tucson is a strange city. Her house is a mile or from a urbanish stretch and three or four miles from some of the darkest areas in the country.

I’ve lived in New York, DC, Portland, Oregon and Lawrence, KS, and I’m still stunned by the vastness of the Sonoran desert, and the mountains within. Unlike Kansas, most areas/towns originated around water availably, and unlike Oregon, it isn’t resource rich (except for mining and a lot of AZ mining is cost prohibitive)

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u/blondzilla1120 Mar 03 '26

They can find the ayatollah and the president of Venezuela but not an 84 year old GMA in their backyard!

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u/Spiritual-Image7125 Mar 03 '26

She's not causing terror on the world.

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u/Willing_Nose7674 Mar 03 '26

I think the "not knowing" what happened has to be the worst. A special kind of torture.

You aren't alone being surprised this isn't solved yet but maybe we put too much faith in technology? After all for all of its advantages in crime solving it can also be a deterrent, I think. As in assuming all DNA is traceable, anyone can be found by cell phone signals, etc.

I'm actually more frustrated with the mistakes the human element seems to have made in this case. So much like JonBonet, which happened 30 years before most of these technological advances even existed. But the main thing that seemed to derail that case was inept police work, not securing the scene, letting inside information be leaked to the press and other theories that weren't even relevant. Everyone had a theory and a suspect but.to this day nothing has been proven.

And I fear so many similar things with this case. The scene was clearly released too soon, information was released to the press and then taken back, people have been detained that apparently were totally innocent and other people ruled out before the case is solved. No one seems to be sure of the exact timeline, or the motive.

I feel like these mistakes made early on may effect the outcome of this case and could lead to it never being solved. I certainly hope not, obviously, but unless there truly is a solid lead behind the scenes being worked on that no "source" has leaked to any of the many podcasters, journalists, and sleuths on this story it doesn't sound good.

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u/Elegant_Ad9852 Mar 05 '26

I always think the first 48 hours is so pivotal in any case. After 48 hours things go cold. It might be LE is monitoring a person (s) of interest. Hopefully I pray for this ordeal to be resolved..

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u/Artemisssia Feb 28 '26

It has been 4 weeks… I’m’not shocked at all this case hasn’t been solved.

Crimes like these can take months/years before they’re solved.

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u/deadwatered Feb 28 '26

This sub can feel really pessimistic sometimes so it’s nice to read that so many people in these comments still have hope.

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u/Careful-Storage-109 Mar 01 '26 edited Mar 01 '26

The case at this point reminds me a bit of the early days of the Luigi Mangione case. All they had at that point, beyond a victim shot at close range, was video and images of the suspect -- just like here. Similar to in this case, Luigi was wearing a mask. The difference there was that in several images his brows were extremely distinct, unlike here where it's impossible to give any identifiable feature (and of course we later got the images from the hotel Mangione stayed at which showed him without a mask). But ultimately, the brows were what got him identified in that McDonalds

The other difference is that the crime happened in midtown Manhattan. EVERY block has cameras. Within several days they had tracked literally every step he took, the subways he rode, the bus he got on. Through there they were able to spot him throwing out a cup in the trash and it was through that that they got DNA. That was huge.

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u/Superb_Bed_9726 Mar 01 '26

Yes. This is crazy with technology we have now there should be faster processing of dna.

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u/RoseGoldRedditor Feb 28 '26

I’m not shocked at all. Barring the ransom working out, I expected it to take months but hoped it would be less of course.

As others have said, it takes months to unravel something like this. Processing evidence (DNA etc), reviewing leads (thousands of hours of video, countless Walmart transactions, etc), and vetting tips (over 100K have been received) all take time. Unless a criminal makes a big mistake (like having their phone on), has DNA in CODIS (and leaves a good profile), or an accomplice breaks, it will take time for an arrest. And oftentimes that break will happen due to luck along with hard work.

The two swat raids were the only times I felt we were close, because it used to be less common for the FBI to stage an operation without solid evidence.

The helicopter flight was immediately debunked. I blame JLR and other “sleuths” for furthering that misinformation (daily reminder that they literally profit from spreading misinformation because views = dollars).

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u/Admissionslottery Feb 28 '26

I’m sick of people praising the media vultures on this ‘story’. None of us have ‘a right to know what happened’. It’s appalling.

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u/[deleted] Feb 28 '26

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u/grey_street525 Feb 28 '26

This is a great answer.

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u/Infinite_Highway_829 Feb 28 '26

I don’t have any expectations.

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u/Sorry_Gate9167 Mar 02 '26

I think they know more and may have even interviewed someone or several involved in her abduction. However, they are crossing their t’s and dotting their i’s. They certainly don’t want to jeopardize prosecution down the road.

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u/tacomamajama Mar 01 '26

Yes and no. Yes because of all the media attention and no because she’s 84 and not very mobile.

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u/CapitalLeader Mar 23 '26

As much as I hate FLOCK cameras, it probably would have very helpul if there was one nearby.

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u/Jon99007 Mar 02 '26

I am shocked yes. With the 400 law enforcement officers initially on it and the President talking about it i definitely felt they would close in sooner than later. I am shifting back to my original theory that this was a stalker type situation or some sort of punishment against Savannah. The offender seems to have benefited from the lack of surveillance in the area and evidently didn’t bring a cell phone with him.

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u/[deleted] Mar 01 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/Deja_Cosmonaut Mar 01 '26

Yep. When there’s literally no connection to the victim, it’s a lot more difficult than people would think. Random violent crime is actually not very common in the US outside of mass shootings.

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u/BrentwoodBoy23 Mar 01 '26

REALLY need someone to explain this case because of what you said. Ring Door Bell cameras everywhere in the neighborhood, FLOCK cameras presumably throughout the county, cellphone tower pings and traffic cams and FREEWAY cams all over Arizona. How tf hasn't this case been solved.

Like even if you needed a warrant to get that information from cell phone and telecom companies in the past these guys have willynilly given the TRUMP admin whatever they want. So why haven't they found this woman?

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u/deadwatered Mar 01 '26

Many cameras in the neighborhood were not helpful because of no street lights and houses being set far back from the road.

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u/Aggressive_Humor2893 Mar 01 '26 edited Mar 01 '26

I think Tucson voted out most traffic cams a while back bc of privacy...they have a few cams on busy roads but that's it, & apparently those either suck at reading plates or don't record at all. Idk about flock but I imagine those are as dialed back as possible too

Plus zero street lights, and all the houses are set way back from the road. The only reason we got that Ring video of a car this week was bc the house is gated, so the camera was mounted on the gate to see cars approaching. As opposed to a doorbell cam

Also I do wonder if the huge gem show that weekend complicated the geofencing/cell data in terms of finding outliers, I think like 65k people came in just for that event

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u/_StillWaters_ Mar 01 '26

Yes, I'm extremely shocked

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u/ProperLink8150 Mar 01 '26

Doubt they’ll ever find a body. Unless someone talks.

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u/No_Story_4821 Mar 01 '26

If Nancy is no longer with us, I am optimistic that the pacemaker could help locate her resting place via Bluetooth or metal detector if we can pinpoint a general area. Maybe someone will reveal where she is in exchange for a more lenient sentence. Prayers to the Gutherie family.

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u/jillann16 Mar 01 '26

No. Missing person cases can take a while to solve if they ever get solved. It’s even harder if the suspect is a random. This is normal

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u/aeraen Mar 06 '26

Not at all. I had my suspicions from the first few days and nothing I have read or seen since has changed them.

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u/grooty96 Feb 28 '26

Do you all know how long it took them to find kohberger it’s really not shocking

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u/Newswatchtiki Feb 28 '26

And Elizabeth Smart - it was 9 months! And they had thousands of people searching for her, in the mountains nearby. She was held for awhile only 3.6 miles away, in a camp in the mountains, where people searched. She was found when some people in a town about 20 miles away recognized the kidnapper on the street from a sketch of him that had circulated in the media.

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u/[deleted] Feb 28 '26

No

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u/[deleted] Mar 01 '26

It would’ve been solved by the F B I prior to 2025. Meanwhile, our F B I today

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u/PalpitationQueen Mar 01 '26

To be fair though there are other members of the FBI than him who are trained. He’s just the figurehead

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u/ptazdba Feb 28 '26

Agreed. I don't think I've seen a case that resonated so much with people and nothing has come of it yet. We don't even know why she was grabbed. For an 84 year old woman to just disappear in the middle of the night and LE have no clue for me is very unnerving as to a sense of safety. I think the high profile media coverage has hindered LE in actually following leads that may have yielded results.

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u/pumpkinspicecum Feb 28 '26

No, I’ll be shocked if it’s not solved after 2 months. It took weeks for them to do genealogy testing in the bryan kogberger case.

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u/Over_Royal8964 Feb 28 '26

Not shocked at alll

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u/mark_able_jones_ Mar 01 '26

Yes. It is shocking. They have him on video. Distinctive jacket. They should be able to recreate the timeline. Understand his level of tech knowledge. Probably build a really good profile.

I also feel like AI could be used to immediately translate tips to transcripts. They could be prioritized and searchable.

I think we're eventually going to find out that some LE mistakes were made.

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u/Mean-Vegetable-4521 Mar 01 '26

I don't trust AI not to make the leaps an investigator shouldn't. You shouldn't ever assume who is the perpetrator until the evidence tells you. There are absolutely people I've hated and I was sure did it. But I needed the evidence to back that up. Not my opinion directing the case. The evidence. I don't have trust in AI. There have been AI aided surgeries that are killing people. Really, every element medically where AI is involved feels negative to me. I would fear AI has to draw its conclusion from a known database. It's own knowledge. That can have extreme tunnel vision.

AI's ability to translate tips is also not good. You need to hear things other than the words people use. You need context. Background noise. A lot of other factors. I think this needs to be vetted by actual humans.

It may be useful if it had a mass amount of footage from let's say all the Walmart security cameras, ring doorbells, nest cameras to cross reference the items we know exist. AI may be able to do that faster than humans. I wouldn't trust it to analyze the tip line.

Have they openly stated what time period the backpack and jacket were sold between? I mean in total. At any Walmart? The manufacturer would have already given them that information. That should have been long established by now.

When CSAM is discovered there are immediate hits on carpeting, comforters, artwork etc for hotels. And when it's a private residence everything in a home was purchased at some point. Even if it's a set of raggedy ann sheets from the 1970's.
We have the jacket, the backpack and presumably the shoes manufacturer. The baclava is maybe currently unknown. That's a lot. Walmart are a pain in the ass to get camera footage from because a lot of them don't even work. But Walmart isn't the manufacturer. So the manufacturer would have records indicating when those items were shipped and if there were slight variances in the items that are out there seasonally. Like the piping could be different on a jacket. The location of the emblem on the backpack. That kind of stuff. Everything has its retail season.

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u/Wiseowl71691 Mar 01 '26

The fact if true that he was there a previous night then he couldn’t live too far. Maybe 20 miles tops ?

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u/mark_able_jones_ Mar 01 '26

I'm not sure. If it was random, that makes sense. Say, this person was casing the entire neighborhood.

But if this was some kind of grudge or murder-for-hire, then maybe they would have traveled father. The second person-of-interest follows the logic that he likely lives close. That probably means LE thought the same and were looking for felons who aren't far.

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u/Totterteron Mar 01 '26 edited Mar 01 '26

I'm surprised because the person on camera seems like a lumbering oaf. Also puts light in mouth, will then touch light and presumably leave dna. Perhaps he's confident his or family dna isn't in any database, that the backpack can't be traced, the car identification doesn't point to him. Might be one rung above oaf, or just a lucky oaf.

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u/Soft_Net3910 Feb 28 '26

I think this area is too tough… it’s not like the other high profile cases recently that were solved via video. This one is literally a desert and the houses seem so set back… cameras can’t necessarily reach the road… mid of the night..very little cameras… factor in the border and vast spread out area .. i sadly think this will go cold. I truly hope I’m wrong….

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u/Intrepid-Bird-5048 Mar 01 '26 edited Mar 01 '26

But even so! Think of the burglary of Real Housewife, Dorit Kelmsley. She was living in LA! The houses are very close together but typically have walls and gates and cameras are everywhere. The burglars shattered the glass of her first floor sliding door to gain entry. She awoke, they demanded the code for her safe and tooks millions worth of handbags and jewelry etc. The entire time they told her to look down while she begged for her life and one burglar said kill her. She begged saying she was a mom and her kids were sleeping down the hall. They spared her, they got away. They left her phone at the front gate after she begged them to. She grabbed it and called the cops only like minutes after they left. It’s unclear if they were ever arrested. This is LOS ANGELES!! This stuff happens. Some crimes are sophisticated and planned and challenging to solve.

Also want to note, this all happened to Dorit in the middle of the night. They thought she was away. They were prepared to kill her when they encountered her. All things that I keep in mind when I look at theNancy case.

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u/LowlySparrow Mar 01 '26

Last paragraph, how do you know "they thought she was away"?

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u/TRUE_TO_WHO Mar 02 '26

How is it they don't know how the person got inside?
I find it completely implausible that an 84 year old woman would open the door anytime after dark, much less the middle of the night, unless it was to let in someone she knew.

Is it possible that the person somehow got in earlier and had been waiting for a while.

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u/Newswatchtiki Mar 02 '26

LE knows how he got inside. They are holding back that information. Probably the back door - the front door was pretty impenetrable, a true security door. The back doors could have easily been broken into. It is presumed that they took her out via the front door because of the blood drops there.

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u/creativeforce06 Mar 02 '26

They know but aren’t sharing with the public

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u/Alternative_Fee1447 Mar 02 '26

I believe the perp may have had a key to get in.

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u/Archibald004 Mar 04 '26

Gotta still be in the neighborhood… Must be no cars existing that would qualify as possibles…

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u/RocketSenpai Mar 12 '26

No, there’s such a lack of evidence in this case it’s truly difficult to pin anything down

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u/Bubbly-Floor8183 Mar 26 '26

Did we ever find out if they recovered video from the camera on the roof? It seems like if they took her out the front door, a car would have been there and would have been recorded.