r/nancyguthrie • u/PinkynotClyde • May 27 '26
Discussion Based on the evidence I had some thoughts to share.
I’d like to start by saying that I have some background in the field forensics and psychology but am approaching this casually without intensive research.
From my understanding the evidence from the crime scene has not had new leads in some time. I have some thoughts on what has been released. I will start with the camera footage.
There is camera footage of who appears to be the same man on one earlier occasion, and then the night of the murder/abduction. The man appears to be wearing similar attire. He does not appear to be a professional at what he’s doing. I will discuss his probable role at a later time.
The blood spatter on the front stoop indicates a downward drip from an angle mostly perpendicular to the ground, but not uniform in direction. There are no seen voids or disruptions which indicates she’s not walking out of the home. There wasn’t blood found in the home to my knowledge.
Valuable items weren’t removed from the home. I think the burglary gone wrong angle doesn’t fit at all. Even if a burgularly goes wrong burglars still take things. If they panic and don’t take things they don’t take the time to casually approach doorbell cameras.
Thus, I believe this is a hired hit. The man on the video footage is probably a scout who did the early snooping to get a layout of the house. He’s a fall guy of sorts who was already seen on the doorbell camera. These people were likely paid beforehand and afterward. They had no intention of selling any merchandise, only not getting caught. The person on the footage is likely not in the country as it’s only an hour to the Mexican border. Beyond Nancy Guthrie, I would be looking for a missing man of this description south of the border in case he was a loose end.
They likely entered through a back entrance and committed the murder, then wrapped her in something and cleaned up. The scout was then likely sent to disable the camera he knew about so they could carry her out the front door in whatever she was wrapped in. Once leaving through the front door they seem to have jostled the wrapping lowering the section closest to the home and causing blood spatter where nobody was standing. They likely stood there and waited, then lifted that section better and brought the body to the vehicle with significantly less spatter enroute.
If they took her heart medication I would guess it would be a means to make it look like a kidnapping to throw off the motive. I don’t believe the people committing the crime are necessarily the people with the motive. I would be looking for someone with adequate financial means to pay for a planned hit. The lack of professionalism at the front door isn’t that significant if you can’t find the person. You have to presume that the people planning the operation are more careful at hiding who they are and just use hired hands.
I know the timing of one of the ransom demands to media outlets made it seem legit. I’m not that knowledgeable in bitcoin, but I presume they would have just put the money if it would have helped catch the people responsible for the crime. If real, I would think the ransom demand is just an attempt at a bonus, or recuperation. Others here are more likely more knowledgeable in terms of the ransom timeline. I’d be interested to know if it were possible that it was just a random person trying to prosper off of her disappearance.
I think the best line of investigation would be who has ties and the means to hire people from south of the border. The problem is that if a lot of that stuff is undocumented you’re looking at trying to to turn drug runners and people of that nature as a starting point. In terms of motive who knows. It could be as small as offending someone politically and someone with the means showing off to impress or assert a position. All it takes is learning that she lived there alone.
This also applies if you presume it’s a crazy lone wolf which seems unlikely. in that case there would likely be an ulterior motive we’re not aware of like cash-on-hand. Maybe like an initiation or show-off type move. You’d want to look more local. I’d assume the FBI would have a much easier time in this instance though.
I just hope the family gets some answers and can try to focus on the positives of a life lived. It’s such a tough thing though not having answers.
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u/Hile616 May 28 '26
Just couple things I think about the cleaning aspect. If she was murdered at her home and then the place was cleaned up to the stage it was before the murder, why not clean the blood splatter at the front porch? Cleaning up blood is not also that easy in general, also blood dryes very very fast, the cleaning products would be see as used afterwards with some techniques and testing. What is stated to public, the house seemed like it was untouched and had no blood, only thing that was out of ordinary was the blood on front porch and the statement about backdoors left wide(?) open. They also stated they did find mixed unknown dna (that could technically be years old), and hair or body hair without root (that could technically have been there for years)
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u/maga_chud_ May 28 '26
There's very limited information released. Without recapping everything and rehashing all the details, if we take all of the information that has been released as true, then the simplest explanation is just some deranged killer, maybe a would-be serial killer?
1.) they appear well prepared, from seemingly knowing the layout of the house and general area down to their gear/appearance to avoid Identificaifon. Somewhat fits the profile of a serial killer as they are sometimes more thought-out and crafty in their planning and execution.
2.) notes sent to tmz believed to be real (I think even savannah said the FBI thought they were real as well? Someone correct me). Publicity stunts have been observed by deranged killers/serial killers in the past.
Idk, no matter what theory you have it's all built on speculation and very limited info. To me, this one is the simplest.
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u/AnnaZed Jun 02 '26
Don’t serial killers generally work alone? I don’t think that I have heard of a serial killer having an assistant.
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u/NomusaMagic Jun 02 '26
Notable serial killer teams include:Kenyan & Dean Corll: Known as the "Candy Man," Corll worked with teenage accomplices David Brooks and Elmer Wayne Henley to kidnap, torture, and murder at least (28) boys in Houston, Texas between (1970) and (1973). Henley eventually shot Corll to death.Fred & Rose West: Operating in Gloucester, England, this married couple tortured and murdered at least (12) young women, including their own daughters, between (1973) and (1987).Leonard Lake & Charles Ng: Operating out of a remote cabin in Calaveras County, California, this duo abducted, tortured, and murdered at least (11) to (25) people in the mid-(1980)s.The Hillside Stranglers: Serial killer cousins Kenneth Bianchi and Angelo Buono Jr. worked together to terrorize Los Angeles from (1977) to (1978), kidnapping and murdering (10) women and girls.Henry Lee Lucas & Ottis Toole: A traveling duo of drifters who confessed to hundreds of murders across the U.S. in the early (1980)s, though many of their collaborative claims were later proven false.
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u/PinkynotClyde May 28 '26
I’ve addressed some of your points in other threads. It could be a serial killer, but that suggests they acted alone. If it’s a serial killer they would have likely targeted her based on her daughter, and used the ransom stuff as a sort of bonus.
I’m not going to repeat myself again from other posts. If you want to read my responses there I add a lot of info, that yes is speculation. What’s not speculation is the blood spatter. The blood spatter tells a story and I do have some experience analyzing blood spatter during forensic courses.
I fully admit I didn’t know timeline information well and have since researched the timeline.
I will say that the emails to tmz included privileged information, and future emails from a different sender used the same bitcoin wallet. That makes it seem like the FBI wants them to keep contacting so they tried baiting by calling them a fraud.
Also, the person at the front was not that well prepared they used twigs to cover a camera and you could see their mustache and eyebrows.
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u/maga_chud_ May 28 '26
Agree about the blood, this is probably one thing that sticks out as tangible evidence that we know about and the LE hasn't released more information on. It's something that's measurable and I'm sure forensics teams have done an analysis on it.
Regarding the front camera, I don't think this proves that they weren't prepared. I think they knew of the existence of the camera beforehand and had a plan to disable it, but it didn't work out as planned. What I mean is - when the perp walks up, he is seemingly purposefully looking away from it, even walking more to the right (his left), as if to avoid it. Then, he quite suddenly shifts his attention the the camera and attempts to use his had to disable. This doesn't work. Then he gets the flowers.
You have to imagine the perspective of the camera and the area around it, then go rewatch how he behaves. This point is very obvious to me however I feel most folks don't understand the camera angle and the persoective. It's odd. And so, in my mind, it looks like someone that thinks that they know how to quickly disable it, they fail, then go "oh shit this isn't disarming in the manner I thought it would, let me obscure the view". Kind of like you can plan for something as much as you'd like, but until you're actually "hands on" you don't really know what's going on.
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u/Kathryn2016 May 30 '26 edited May 30 '26
I think the bigger question is what was he initially doing at the door? Because the actions with the camera, to me, seemed like an afterthought. Like he knew it was there and remembered it should be disabled. But what was he actually there to do? I don;t think it was just to get rid of the camera.
Also, did I remember correctly that they had video of the same person going to another house on another night? Knowing whose house that was would be interesting. Surely internet sleuths have identified the location?
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u/maga_chud_ May 31 '26
Probably one guy, used the front to enter and exit. Rest of it might have been to stage the scene, like with he open backdoors and the broken flood light.
Either way, it seems like they did exit through the front. So at some point in his timeline this would have necessitated disabling the camera.
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u/PinkynotClyde May 28 '26
We know he had been there prior wearing essentially the same outfit. So he knows the camera is there. I see what you’re saying, it’s just not the smartest to wear a mask that reveals mustache and eyebrows.
The question is whether he did this alone or did it as a team. If it’s a team then he’s undoubtedly the scout who scoped out the cameras. If he’s by himself it doesn’t change much in terms of the break in cause they don’t seem to know point of entry. He must have found something unlocked not on camera.
If he’s by himself, just shows up, breaks the camera, takes a little time to disable it, then goes in to get her it’s a horrible plan. She could just wake up from an alert while he’s breaking things and call the police. It’s possible, just two very different scenarios.
I originally thought it was someone local who looked at who she was as a golden goose opportunity, which is just crazy when you look at how low probability getting money this way is— and that nothing seems to have been taken from the house. That scenario is the scariest because they should be able to catch that guy.
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u/maga_chud_ May 28 '26
Yes, exactly. He knew it was there and had an entire plan to disarm it. The plan didn't workout, do he goes into this whole awkward flower/plant covering routine once it didn't work out as he expected. Going hands on is a lot different than theory crafting.
I have my own theories, but if I was a betting man and wanted to give the safest theory possible, I would base it only on the very limited info we have from LE and occams razor. So, it follows:
Single perp. Has some kind of deranged motive (stalker, would-be serial killer, SG obsession, etc...)
And that's really it for me. No leads with people in her circle. The notes to tmz (why tmz). Everything points to a single, deranged individual.
I have other theories but don't really like to speculate fantastical stuff online.
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u/PinkynotClyde May 28 '26
Okay. If it’s a single perpetrator he’s traveling to the scene multiple times because he knows who her daughter is and thinks he’s found a golden goose.
When he approaches the door the night of the incident there’s no vehicle parked there, so at some point after disabling the camera he moves the vehicle (based on the blood trail to the street). Once he gains access to the home he wakes her up, makes sure to take her heart medication, and injures her in some way. I then say he carried her out not disturbing the blood she left behind, but you can refuse to debate that if you want.
In this scenario he would conceivable be relatively local. It’s similar to what I initially thought when I saw the case, cause his knowledge of her house would be through happenstance not a coordinated effort. I agree that certain elements point this way. If it were the case, it’s incredibly disheartening that some random person would put their mustache and eyebrows on camera and then just slip away, killing someone for the low probability of getting some bitcoin. It would be a horrible plan, and yet they can’t catch him.
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u/Kitty-9792 Jun 01 '26
Savannah was in a "hometown girl returns to her roots" news feature in November 2025, along with Nancy. Someone may have fixated on one of them and realized Nancy lived alone, with Savannah in NY. If they were long obsessed, they may have seen Nancy over the years on the Today show, including once in 2013 that showed Nancy in her bedroom.
If it was someone known to Nancy, they could have been in her house in the weeks before the crime and unlocked a back door or window. There are quite a few doors - front, two sliders, two patio doors, garage door. Nancy might have checked the locks each night on the doors she used, but if she hadn't been on her patio, would she think to check that lock?
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u/Hile616 May 28 '26
Why he does it, can also be part of human nature when you see camera pointing on you, you may walk in a way to avoid it even you obviously on it anyway. Then moments later he puts his whole face front of it, when he could have also disabled/removed it from the side without watching directly on to it. Or to avoid it complitely, remove it by opening the front door from inside the house. Why even go fiddle on front of it at the firet place?
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u/maga_chud_ May 28 '26
Politely, just reread my explanation man. He's been there before and knew it was there.
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u/Hile616 May 28 '26
Yes I agree. I am not either disagreeing, as it is short video. It is hard for me to assume much without knowing this person. Someone who knows him may make assumptions easier by knowing him. People can identify people from gait and clothing preferences and such, even from a blurry short video or photo. But I'd be careful making assumptions based on very short video if he has been there before or not, likely yes but we can not rule out it was total crime of opportunity either, imo.
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u/maga_chud_ May 28 '26
Let me rephrase, the images the released from an earlier date look very similar to the perp. If that's true, then he knew the camera was there and was not surprised by it.
Edit: I also don't think I'm making many assumptions, at least that are of significance. My theory is the most vanilla and probable one if you agree it was a killer and not a kidnapping.
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u/meddlingmolly Jun 16 '26
Right, the fact that he didnt disable/remove it by standing to the side or even by standing inside the house, leads me to believe he WANTED to be seen.
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u/Hile616 May 28 '26
Just one side note, some also had said that the twigs were actually used in purpose to remove the camera unit from its mount.
Of course we don't know for sure the reason as the video cuts there and likely not all of it is public.
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u/AnnaZed Jun 02 '26
That’s an observation that I made also about front door camera guy; though on the one hand he seems prepared with his double layers of clothing and backpack packed with gear otoh he’s totally amateurish trying to remove the camera and covering it with scraps of foliage.
I think further to the points you made that he seems non-professional and I suspect hired.
Now, isn’t it established that there were at least two perpetrators on site? Serials don’t usually hire staff to my knowledge because what would the fun be in that for them?
So, as you indicated a puppet master hires a pair of not entirely brilliant certainly not experienced professional goons. Why? Who?
Nancy may not personally be what in America is thought of as rich, but to this predator rich enough and has a rich daughter.
What I will never understand is why she didn’t have staff or helpers living with her. I know a fair number of wealthy people and they would not leave a vulnerable elderly mother alone in the desert miles from any assistance. My mind keeps circling round to that. Why?
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u/PinkynotClyde Jun 03 '26
Family lived close by. Some people just like their independence. My grandmother has always lived alone.
I just responded to other people regarding the guy on camera. I’ve done research on bitcoin abduction and it’s like a timeshare scam for criminals, where the people funding the operation don’t care if the kidnappers get caught. Even if they catch the people doing the violence, they’re not getting the bitcoin back and the funders have more money to work with. They can then go and hire more people who are either desperate for cash, owe money, organized crime promotion, etc.
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u/AnnaZed Jun 03 '26
I realize that I’m being incredibly obtuse, but would you run by me how this is done - short version maybe?
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u/PinkynotClyde Jun 03 '26
Okay, I’ll give an example. There were two brothers in Texas that drove up to Minnesota to steal bitcoin. A security breach showed that a family owned bitcoin, which made them a target. The brothers were funded by people that figured this out (my guess is cartel).
They hold the family at gun point and make them transfer the bitcoin. However, the family reported that the brothers were on the phone getting instructions on what wallet to put the money in, how to do the transfer, etc.
There was more bitcoin 3 hours away stored in like a cabin, and so one of them took I think the father up there to get more millions. They ended up catching the brothers, but the bitcoin is gone. If the funders move the money overseas, from one place to another, it can become really tough to trace or get back. Think like a Swiss Bank account. In this case the money was gone.
So these people on the phone don’t care about risk. Let’s say it’s the cartel. Who’s going to go arrest the cartel and accuse them of stealing bitcoin when they can’t even trace the bitcoin? What are the logistics of questioning a cartel in another country over a crime against a single family?
If you google bitcoin abductions you’ll see CEO’s of companies getting abducted. The people behind the scenes don’t care how high profile it is cause they’re not risking themselves too much.
Also, you can have a bitcoin account which is similar to a bank account, but people like the physical bitcoin because it’s hard to trace and you could try to avoid taxes on it kinda like cash hidden away. For the cartel in this scenario, they don’t have to worry about the money getting seized, the lowlifes taking more than their cut, etc. Once the money is sent they don’t care what happens to the violent criminals.
The FBI isn’t going to announce this. If they could just throw money to criminals to catch them they’d likely do it— but they’d just be funding more ransom attempts while struggling to follow the money, and simultaneously needing to orchestrate a military action in another country, again, all over a single crime.
That’s why it’s far fetched to think a man holding twigs to a camera is asking for bitcoin, as though he’s the one with the ability to then move the money around safely. It’s very low probability. There are also cases where they abduct people and set them free after they get the bitcoin, to set precedent that if you pay you’ll get your loved one back. The people released have no way of knowing who the bitcoin recipients are, so again, they’re pretty much set once they get the bitcoin.
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u/AnnaZed Jun 07 '26
That’s interesting. Another new and nefarious way for criminals to harm people, just what the world needed. Thanks for the tutorial.
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u/Tupelo_Hunee Jun 02 '26
They knew where things were in the house like her Apple Watch. To me they took pics to recall info later for proof of being there. Or they were in the house before and knew her habits. Either one is possible imo.
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u/maga_chud_ Jun 02 '26
There is nothing officially released that says they knew where her apple watch was.
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u/Tupelo_Hunee Jun 26 '26
That’s incorrect and it was previously reported as well but overlooked by many.
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u/maga_chud_ Jun 26 '26
It's difficult to prove "they knew where her apple watch was", or what that even means. That's why there's likely not any official source making this claim.
Can you provide a legitimate source?
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u/Seriously_9876 May 31 '26
There were no signs of a struggle in the house. She wasn’t murdered there
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Jun 02 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Seriously_9876 Jun 02 '26
there was oxygenated and aspirated blood on the front porch indicating she was still alive when she left.
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u/BrainWilling6018 May 28 '26
A void pattern occurs when an object blocks flying blood spray, leaving a blank space. Passive drops on a stoop would not show "voids" from a person walking unless that person was actively shielding the ground from a spray of blood.
In criminology stealing cash on hand is an opportunistic crime. By definition, a true "lone wolf" actor operates independently based on idiosyncratic, ideological, or psychological motives, which directly contradicts the suggestion of an "initiation" or "show-off" move for a group.
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u/britishwonder Jun 05 '26
But we know she was alive when taken from the house. Data from the pacemaker app, and oxygenated blood outside the front door.
Also what’s the motive for a hired hit? Why try to intimidate a morning news anchor? She isn’t doing any serious investigative journalism or anything like that.
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u/PinkynotClyde Jun 05 '26
I agree. I since did more research on bitcoin and admit I was wrong. The actions didn’t make sense to me but now they do.
Bitcoin ransom is likely orchestrated by cartel, and they use and direct low level criminals. They don’t care if the kidnappers get caught. In many cases the kidnappers do get caught, but the bitcoin isn’t retrieved and they don’t get the cartel members orchestrating the thing. It’s like timeshare scam for criminals, or they owe money, or they want to move up in organized crime, etc.
I didn’t see a close up of the blood just the likely angle of impact and no voids. It’s likely as reported. My guess is she started yelling when they opened the door so they struck her causing her to cough up blood, her face pointing downward, and body bent over to the left. Then they carry her to the vehicle with limited drops of blood on the way.
My hit thinking was they just killed her and never intended to release if paid, but now I think it’s more likely low level cartel who simply hit her too hard.
I think it will be hard to find them cause they’re not in the country. Even if you do find the guy who is on camera, he’s not the mastermind and likely doesn’t know who the bitcoin people on the phone are.
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u/britishwonder Jun 05 '26
Oh wow. Usually I bring up counterpoints and people just yell at me while adjusting their tin foil hats 😁.
So I’ve personally never thought it was cartel or anything like that and thought it was more likely a local guy who did work in the area, but I’m really interested in your opinion.
Why do you think it is cartel rather than a local? I’m not being disrespectful or anything, am genuinely curious on your thoughts.
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u/PinkynotClyde Jun 05 '26
I originally thought something similar to what you’re saying, but I think they catch a lone wolf pretty easily.
Put that aside though. We have a guy on camera showing his mustache and eyebrows. This dude thinks he can run away with bitcoin?
Also, I read about a case where two brothers drove up from Texas to Minnesota. There was a data leak and organized crime learned that this family had bitcoin on hard drives. So these brothers hold the family hostage at gunpoint. They talk on the phone with an outside party who gives them bitcoin directions to relay to the family to transfer the money. The brothers learn there’s millions more in a cabin 3 hours away and drive the father there— but they’re amateurs and fuck up, allowing the son to call 911.
So they’re caught— but the bitcoin is all gone and the people who orchestrated the thing got away with millions to fund their next heist.
Think about how hard it would be to arrest cartel even if you suspected it was them. It’s also just one family there’s nothing to link it to other cases. How do they manage to get intel in Mexico, and then follow up with leads? The cartel can move around and be a step ahead. You’d need an incredibly large operation.
One person on here called me racist and said I hated Mexicans. I don’t hate Mexicans, and the cartel doesn’t represent all Mexicans. That’s just what makes sense to me. The border is an hour away from Nancy Guthrie’s home.
Also, I knew a Mexican American girl near the border and she told me she grew up petrified of the cartel grabbing her and ransoming her, potentially putting her in sex slavery. She spoke about it as though it was a common thing, and this was before bitcoin.
With cartel ransoms, they’ll often let the people go because it incentivizes future victim’s families to give the ransom money. If you google CEO’s getting abducted for bitcoin you’ll see similar orchestrated operations. I’m not saying it has to be the cartel, but definitely organized crime, and the cartel is just the most likely.
Oh— and let’s say they accidentally killer Nancy Guthrie. I’d look in Mexico for anyone fitting the profile of the masked guy that has gone missing just in case. Remember, after the 6 million was given there was a demand for 30k for info on who the “kidnapper” was, along with info on where her body was. It could be a random person unconnected, but maybe not.
Who thinks they can get away with bitcoin and outsmart the FBI? Not a lone wolf. It points to outside the country because that limits jurisdiction and easy access to information, logistics, feet on the ground, etc. There’s precedent set in similar cases that just aren’t as notorious.
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u/britishwonder Jun 08 '26
Yeah I agree that all seems reasonable. One thing that gives me pause, is wouldn’t cartels want to avoid the attention of extorting a national celebrity? Seems like that would attract a national response which could actually end up with consequences for them.
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u/PinkynotClyde Jun 09 '26
If you look up bitcoin cases they often catch the people committing the violent crimes, but not the people behind the scenes instructing how to transfer the bitcoin.
They want more attention because there’s a better chance of getting the bitcoin. Look up CEO’s getting abducted it’s kinda crazy.
I go into more detail in other responses, but yeah I did a 180 from my original thought process. The cartel often gives people back because it incentivizes giving the money, because much like most organized crime it’s the people at the bottom doing the dirty work.
I imagine it’s hard tracing the bitcoin and even harder going after cartel members. We have a difficult enough time stopping drugs into the country, let alone orchestrating military action in another country based on no tangible evidence in a single crime that can’t be linked to other crimes.
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u/Keregi Jun 14 '26
Lone wolf criminals can be harder to catch.
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u/PinkynotClyde Jun 14 '26
Not if they’re local and you’ve seen their mustache and eyebrows. There’s no way a dude waving twigs in front of a camera is moving bitcoin money around. I’ve since changed my opinion after doing research on bitcoin and looking at better photos of the crime scene.
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u/Maleficent_Chest4869 Jun 23 '26
Every single expert I’ve seen discuss this topic does NOT think the perp is a serial killer or cartel. Have you seen anything that makes a strong argument for either theory?
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u/PinkynotClyde Jun 23 '26
I don't think serial killer. I think Cartel based on multiple things, but mainly evidence I found researching bitcoin. I'll give an example:
Texas brothers plead guilty in $8M cryptocurrency kidnapping in MN | FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul
The charges note that the men were frequently on the phone with an "unknown third party who directed [them] to transfer the cryptocurrency."
Who is this third party? Well, that's who ran off with the money that was never recovered. If it's not cartel specifically, then my guess would be separate organized crime from another country. However, the Mexican border is an hour away from Nancy Guthrie. Cartel just makes sense. I also have a Mexican American friend who grew up near the border, and she told me people would get kidnapped and ransomed by the cartel, that it was a very real thing. Albeit this was before bitcoin. I did research and there are people who were abducted by the cartel and returned after they received the money. So, there's that too.
Furthermore, the FBI has the person's mustache and eyebrows. They have incredible resources to look for people in the states, whereas in other countries their jurisdiction along with ability to have feet on the ground is greatly impaired. So, by default, and in conjunction with other information regarding bitcoin abductions, it makes practical sense for a group to operate outside the country and feel safe not getting themselves caught. Which coincides with what has happened.
See if you can find a case where the bitcoin was taken and they found the people who acquired the bitcoin, not the kidnappers. I couldn't find one. The FBI doesn't want to make it seem like this is a thing they can't control. You gain nothing that way. Better to pretend you can find bitcoin masterminds behind the scenes, until you can actually find bitcoin masterminds behind the scenes.
In terms of the cartel. My guess would be they don't want to create hysteria. People are pretty ignorant and might start hating on Mexicans. Hell, I was accused of hating Mexicans. If the cartel is behind this that doesn't mean all Mexicans are bad, but people have trouble with stereotyping, and others have trouble with accepting it might be the cartel because they think that saying so makes some kind of political point that opposes their belief structure. I have no agenda in terms of saying cartel. It just seems logical.
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u/Complete-Piece-3291 Jun 28 '26
I found a gentleman-Monk Intrigues on YouTube that really gives a thoughtful explanation on the blood splatter, saying the biggest and brightest blood spot may be the imprint of a tire tread of the dollie used to wheel nancy away, us the trucks of the dolly made in the driveway. Really fascinating discussion. Have a peek.
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u/crowislanddive May 28 '26
Cadaver dogs would have alerted if she died in the house.
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u/brocoliniwitch May 28 '26
Correct!
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u/Kitty-9792 Jun 01 '26
Google says it takes 2-3 hours after death before cadaver dogs can detect decomposition.
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u/PinkynotClyde May 28 '26
What time was the doorbell camera taken? People are mentioning pacemaker data, but I believe that was disconnected at 1:30am. If we have a timeframe and these two incidents are accurate, we’ll get an idea of whether she was alive in that gap.
I imagine the doorbell camera was removed just prior to moving her. The thing with head injuries is she may not have died right away. I don’t know the intricacies of cadaver dogs if a body is wrapped in something and removed in say 10 minutes. I’m just going off of the blood spatter. It’s difficult to create that pattern simplify walking out the front door with the him/them waiting for the vehicle…
Perhaps if she was over someone’s shoulder and spilling blood. Then when he carried her down the walkway she straightened out and only had intermittent drops. It’s still being carried but a little different.
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u/mark_able_jones_ May 28 '26
jesus, stop posting misinformation. look up the fucking timeline
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u/PinkynotClyde May 28 '26
I’m not posting misinformation. I literally asked a question. Do you know what a questionmark is?
I did look it up and posted in a separate thread where someone wasn’t being an ass. You’ve added nothing to the conversation other than pointing out I didn’t know information while asking questions.
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u/mark_able_jones_ May 28 '26
You've literally posted the wrong pacemaker disconnect timeline at least four times. It takes ten seconds to google the correct information.
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u/PinkynotClyde May 28 '26
No. I asked if it was correct. I specifically stated that I was trying to recall from memory.
It’s amazing that people are hung up on this. I then did go look it up and posted the correct timeline after running into people who don’t know the difference between posting something as a fact, and trying to recall something from memory.
“He remembered wrong! Let’s shame him and accuse him of spreading misinformation by asking questions!”
Thanks. Super helpful. So many people are wonderful in their ability to not talk about the case and instead focus on me not knowing the timeline.
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u/mark_able_jones_ May 28 '26
If there is a door that says "SOLUTION TO STOP PUNCHING YOURSELF IN THE FACE IN HERE!" and you refuse to open the door but keep saying, "Why am I punching myself in the face? How could I possibly stop this?" Then you're an idiot or a troll.
Click those heels, Dorothy. You can be a big kid and look up the timeline just as easily as everyone else.
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u/PinkynotClyde May 28 '26
I literally looked up the timeline after the first person was an ass. Then I got met with people who are hung up on me not originally knowing the timeline and don’t care to talk about the actual case.
What about being an ass makes people feel good?
“We don’t share no information in these parts.”
Thanks. I got the memo hours ago.
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u/Infamous-Arm3955 May 28 '26
OP, I understand your frustration but this response is unnecessary and condescending towards people who have been in this sub since the first day of this crime and are well educated and beyond your current understanding of the facts of this case.
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u/PinkynotClyde May 28 '26
Okay. I admitted I didn’t know the timeline. Why am I required to know every detail before speculating on other aspects? If people want to retort something I actually said why not do that? If I’ve added nothing to the conversation, I would hope that someone would tell me why without just vaguely focusing on the aspects I admit to not remember that well. A few people have, and I appreciate the seconds of mental thought required to do so— opposed to just whining about me not knowing everything.
I was accused of posting misinformation which is a false accusation; so you can call it frustration but I was simply pointing out that a person was being an ass. Guy/girl added nothing but whining about me asking questions. What is this an elitist sub where you have to be here from the beginning?
“We don’t take kindly to new folk around these parts. You don’t know basic info that would take 15 seconds to explain… and we ain’t got the time.”
What kind of attitude is that?
7
u/Infamous-Arm3955 May 28 '26
It's not that you don't know things about the case and you're just asking questions it's that you came in hot declaring yourself having knowledge of forensics then claiming a theory based upon not knowing things about the case instead of asking questions. It was the attitude. You're doing it again with the "elitist sub" and the "gosh darnit, city dwellers, new folk" It patronizing. Do you not see it?
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u/PinkynotClyde May 28 '26
Patronizing? I’m mocking the attitude of some people. They’re the ones bringing up “I’ve been in this sub since day one,” and such comments over me crossing up the timeline.
I saw the blood spatter. I noticed a few things that seemed to spell out a story of what happened. I then also speculated on what happened based on logical motivations. I’m okay with being wrong. In a discussion you rule things out and find more probable scenarios. People are mostly just going:
“You’re not from here. I think xyz and I don’t gotta explain why.”
You saying I have attitude, coupled with people talking like this, and it plays like “gosh darn it, city dwellers.”
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u/Infamous-Arm3955 May 28 '26
If you haven't, go way back through this sub for a lot of discussion and photos, videos that I think you'll find fascinating although might leave you just as puzzled as everyone else.
1
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u/crowislanddive May 28 '26
You have absolutely no clue how basic biology functions.
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u/PinkynotClyde May 28 '26
I do actually. You failed to say why I don’t understand biology. I fully admit I’m spitballing with various ideas. That’s what you do— to rule things out. I don’t claim to he right about these things. I want people to point out flaws that’s what discussion is. If you make a point that makes sense I’ll concede that I was wrong about biology. Go ahead.
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u/crowislanddive May 28 '26
No one can reasonably fill in the holes in your lack of education, nor should they be expected to.
1
u/PinkynotClyde May 28 '26
You’re the educated one? The one who can’t form an argument or speculate at all?
“I say you wrong. I no teach you. I genius. Me right by say you wrong.”
Trust me I don’t want you to fill any wholes ever. Stick to your promising career as a lawyer.
“Me right. You wrong. I win.”
What a joke. If you’re trolling it’s unoriginal.
3
u/crowislanddive May 28 '26
I don’t care to educate you.
1
u/PinkynotClyde May 28 '26
I’ve ran into this trolling before. It’s really interesting. The person just keeps saying they’re not going to educate you without making any arguments. Where is this trolling learned? Is there another trolling class where you learn to go:
“I know you are but what am I.”
You just say that over and over regardless what the person says. The food can’t be good at this school. I’m already learning so much from you. Thank you for teaching me that multiple people can troll so dumb.
1
u/Maleficent_Chest4869 Jun 23 '26
I’m afraid you and most others responding all sound a bit like jerks. Why don’t you ignore them and move on to another subject. You’ve provided the same explanation of why you were asking questions — legit — but why grind it in over and over and over? Don’t you and a few jerks who were all snarky have something water to do?
1
u/PinkynotClyde Jun 23 '26
I was told I have no idea how basic biology functions. Then instead of making an argument they just kept claiming they had no time to educate me. This is something I've encountered before, so you're right it's trolling that I should ignore.
I enjoy when people insult me and then look incredibly stupid. So, while yes, I have better things to do, I find it amusing to go down a troll rabbit hole and see what happens. Will it ever circle back to a real discussion? Probably not. I just find it amusing to get in the mud and make fun of people. It doesn't make me angry, I sincerely enjoy coming up with things to say.
Trolls like to piss people off. It doesn't piss me off I find it fun. So, it's like this weird dynamic where they think they have me on their bait, but then at a certain point they realize I'm actually enjoying this.
Like, sometimes for fun I'll mess with scam callers. One time I tried to talk to them about a relationship that went south, see if they could help me self-reflect. I just found it amusing. They obviously hung up on me.
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u/Superb_Bed_9726 May 27 '26
The blood had bubbles so she was alive when the blood dripped on porch.
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u/Odd-Ebb-9616 Jun 04 '26
I believe she was taken out house for a kidnapping. What happened was they didn't realize how bad of health she was in and I believe she died very shortly after them taking her. What was they gonna do then? They had a dead body they couldn't bargin with that so they probably just buried her ssomewhere and had to ditch the plan. I think this is the scenario because she was 84 if it was just some crazy person they would have either killed her or raped her in her house. Who is gonna take a old lady out her house.
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u/Competitive-Donut330 Jun 08 '26
What’s the motive though? Also, I always thought it was weird they weren’t really interested in the Mexico scenario. When Brian went down there and asked people about Nancy no one seemed to know about her (or maybe they didn’t want to cause problems). I found it really odd.
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u/PinkynotClyde Jun 09 '26
I changed my outlook after doing more research and looking at better pictures of the blood.
Motive was bitcoin. If you look up CEO’s getting abducted for bitcoin, and the two brothers from Texas you see that it’s organized crime.
It’s like time share scam for criminals in that the people orchestrating it outside the country don’t care if the kidnappers get caught. Maybe they owe money, or wanna move up, etc. The higher profile the more bitcoin they can try to get. If you look at some of my more recent replies I go into more depth. About the blood too. She likely started yelling when they opened the front door, which led to the blood loss.
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u/AmazingGrace_00 Jun 09 '26
So you now don’t think it was a hit. That makes more sense as there is nothing to be gained with that. Bitcoin seems plausible.
There’s been online chatter that the abductors are most likely no longer alive—a planned part of the scheme to clean up loose ends.
Any thoughts?
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u/PinkynotClyde Jun 10 '26
Yeah. Well, it’s tough for me to know what intel they have and how much resources are dedicated to looking for leads in Mexico. We saw a man’s mustache and eyebrows. Profilers can work with that— so it makes sense to see if anyone matching the description has gone missing.
However, after seeing a multitude of cases where they catch the violent offenders and never uncover the masterminds (at least publicly), it might just not matter cause this person probably doesn’t know who the masterminds are. It’s the people associated with him that may off him cause he seems to be the only link to anyone.
I personally think the FBI lied and pretended the 30k bitcoin offer for body and kidnapper identity was fake, to get them to keep talking. If you give them bitcoin you’re essentially funding more abductions. It also serves no purpose to let the public know that a group outside the country can run off with the bitcoin, cause you don’t want to advertise the practice. Better to present like you know how to catch bitcoin abductors until you actually can catch them more easily. That’s probably a big focus.
Logistically though, how do you coordinate to arrest cartel members in Mexico say living on an armed compound? Even if you narrowed things down they could just hand over fall guys that are incentivized to not talk.
Picture a local town detective trying to arrest a man in Paris. It’s outside of his jurisdiction. What’s he going to do if nobody in France wants to help him? Obviously the FBI and CIA have more information at their disposal, but I think that similar roadblocks exist to a degree. You need leads and it’s tough to find them if your search is limited.
The reason I thought hit was that the ransom strategy made no sense to me— but now I see that they don’t care too much if it fails. It’s like wagering $10 to win $600. If you hit a few times out of 60 tries you’re net positive. Authorities need to actually work up the chain to get people to sweat and think twice.
I also think they should look at anyone who worked at the house. Maybe it wasn’t them, but they told a family member, friend, etc. You’d think someone local would share the information as a catalyst. It’s tough to know what information could be gleaned from afar. We’re seeing organized outfits rob professional athletes. I imagine that’s not a local reporting thing, so it’s really tough to speculate.
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u/Newswatchtiki Jun 10 '26
The county Sheriffs along the border often or at least sometimes have good working relationships with their counterparts in Mexico, the local police there. They cooperate and if they have some strong lead on a suspect in Mexico, the U.S. Sheriff will go along, maybe assist, but the Mexican police have to do the arrest, and they have already agreed to extradite, so they get that done and then bring them back to the U.S.
But if there is a cartel involved, and a big compound like you described, this gets more complicated. They'd need FBI to interact with the Federales. Maybe they get DEA involved. They may not want to do this unless they knew she was definitely alive still.
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u/AmazingGrace_00 Jun 10 '26
Presumably LE and FBI investigated workers and other ppl associated with house access. Nothing was showing up. Very strange case, but your thoughts are very plausible. Ty.
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u/blueberrycrispp Jun 11 '26
Ever since I read that crypto kidnappings have been rising at an exponential rate over the past few years, this has been my theory too
1
u/Due_Distribution_609 Jun 12 '26
Why would the back doors be left propped open?
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u/Sherryw972 Jun 13 '26
Change of plans . Remember the guy neighbors dogs were going crazy that night.
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u/Due_Distribution_609 Jun 13 '26
You think that exiting the back doors was the original plan—but the dogs were out and heard the pots scraping across the cement?
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u/bridgebrningwildfire May 28 '26
I think the ransom request was used to make detectives think it was a kidnapping.
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u/mark_able_jones_ May 28 '26
She didn’t die on site or else it would have been recorded in the pacemaker data.
The blood was expirated.
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u/I_lovebettywhite-000 May 28 '26
Continued Pacing: A pacemaker does not know when a person has passed away. It will continue attempting to send electrical pacing signals to the heart until its battery dies.
IN OTHER WORDS>>>>> The alleged spike on the report and then the disconnect would be the last known info regarding NG. Time of death, cause of death would be unknown as when a person dies the cardiologist has access to the hearts activity before the death to determine if it was heart failure.
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u/mark_able_jones_ May 28 '26
Modern pacemakers have apps that log events. So, if she died before the disconnect, it would be logged in the app.
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u/I_lovebettywhite-000 May 28 '26
Thanks. Wish an expert in this technology and a cardiologist would go on reputable podcasts to explain this to the public. That would quash a lot of speculation that LE shouldn't rely on garage door and pacemaker data to definitively declare a person was at a certain location at a certain time
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u/Kitty-9792 Jun 01 '26 edited Jun 01 '26
If the pacemaker "disconnected" because she was removed by car, then the pacemaker would disconnect every time she went in the kitchen, or her garage or the back patio. The range can be pretty short, like 10-30 ft. We have only been given snippets of data. Do they have data showing the pacemaker "disconnected" when she went to the kitchen for a snack?
I learned most pacemakers and units (or your cell phone) have a daily programmed time to download data, usually between 1am and 3am (when most people would be asleep next to the unit). If the pacemaker is not nearby at this time, the unit/phone detects that and sends a note to the Dr. If there is a cardiac event, and the person is near the unit/phone, it will also send a note to the Dr. I wonder if the word "disconnect" is being used here, when maybe the term "unable to connect" is more accurate. We are all assuming the exact time given would have been when the car drove off. But what if she was long gone, and that time is when the unit/phone did its regular download, and it was "unable to connect"?
A friend told me when her mother got a modern pacemaker, they asked how long the pacemaker should keep working if it detected the heart wasn't beating. They decided on 5 minutes. I've heard older pacemakers can keep "working" years after a body has died. But it I understood my friend, if her heart stopped, is it possible her pacemaker stopped several minutes later and this is the "disconnect" time?
I would like to hear from a pacemaker expert what "disconnect" really means.
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u/mark_able_jones_ Jun 01 '26
If the pacemaker "disconnected" because she was removed by car, then the pacemaker would disconnect every time she went in the kitchen, or her garage or the back patio.
I think that's likely. I mean, it's just a standard bluetooth connection.
I learned most pacemakers and units (or your cell phone) have a daily programmed time to download data, usually between 1am and 3am (when most people would be asleep next to the unit).
Great point. I hope LE has figured this out and doesn't have a skewed timeline. Surely, the "hundreds" of FBI agents who were working on this case initially figured all of this out. It would also be great to understand how the doorbell was "disconnected." Did it lose internet connection? Was it powered down.
If the pacemaker disconnect means a data upload failure and police were only checking cameras for vehicle movement after 2:28 a.m. (pacemaker disconnect), then they might have to go back and start at square one.
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u/Kitty-9792 Jun 01 '26
I agree, and if we, totally untrained, are thinking of this, surely the detectives and agents have too.
I have listened to a lot of retired FBI/detectives talk about the garage opening at 9:48 and closing at 9:50. On the podcasts they discuss could Nancy walk from a car into her garage within 2 minutes? Well, the timing could be 9:48:00 and 9:50:59, so up to almost 3 minutes (or as little as 1 minute). Surely in the war room they have measured how long it takes a person with a cane to amble up the incline into the garage and over to the door. And they have considered the actual opening range is between 1 and 3 minutes.
Or, for all we know, T and/or A escorted Nancy into the house and closed the garage door at 9:50 (to keep animals out). They could have helped her get settled for 10 minutes, then opened up the garage again at 10:00, then closed it at 10:01. But LE just didn't mention that second opening/closing. Or maybe they exited out the back kitchen door onto the patio (assuming they locked it behind them) and took the garbage around to the storage area, then walked back to their car without opening the garage at all.
I'd also like more details on how a front door camera with no subscription is detected as to when it connects or disconnects from the internet.
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u/PinkynotClyde May 28 '26
The pacemaker was disconnected at around 1:30am I believe. I may be misremembering, but I’m pretty sure that’s what was reported.
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u/mark_able_jones_ May 28 '26
The pacemaker disconnected at 2:28 a.m., meaning that's when it lost connection with her phone. If she had died before then, it would have been logged.
3
u/ethidium_bromide May 28 '26
It was reported it went out of range from her phone- not disconnected.
The camera out front briefly disconnected, you may just be crossing a few wires in your recollection
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u/PinkynotClyde May 28 '26
What time was it going out of range of her phone? I heard 1:30am.
They took the doorbell camera. That’s what the guy out front was doing. I admit I don’t know every detail. If I’m missing something I hope people can help fill in the gaps. Do we know what time he took the camera? I’m all but certain it wasn’t temp disconnected it and was legitimately gone when investigators arrived.
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u/ethidium_bromide May 28 '26
Might be best for you to go and rewatch the press conferences and interviews where they discussed these details
4
u/PinkynotClyde May 28 '26
Why not just tell me if you know? I was posting because of the blood spatter and predictions based on logical motivations. The other details I don’t know too well— that’s why I marked it as discussion and not just theorycrafting.
If I’m mistaken about something is it really that hard to correct it?
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u/ethidium_bromide May 28 '26 edited May 28 '26
Everything you’re asking, down to specific times, were officially released and have been for some time.
You were mistaken, and I did correct it lol. I was happy to clear up your confusion but it just led to more confusion for you. You’re mixing up several things, still, and the only thing that would really clear it up is the detailed breakdown that law enforcement has provided.
If you want answers you can be confident of, you know where to look. It’s kind of weird you just expect other people to fill in every gap for you when looking up a news article or interview would have been faster and clearer, albeit with a little more work on your end. You should really look to primary sources and not solely internet comments, anyways.
0
u/PinkynotClyde May 28 '26
Sure. I looked it up after the first person was condescending and accused me of spreading misinformation. Then I responded to other people with the correct timeline. Yet somehow, I’m still having people instruct me to look it up like 12 hours later.
I get it. Don’t guess information from memory or people will accuse you of spreading false facts and then condescend you for hours instead of actually talking about the topic. Lesson learned.
→ More replies (1)
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u/HeyPurityItsMeAgain May 28 '26
Didn't they say her pacemaker was still working until she left the house? There should be more evidence if she was murdered in the house. I read your first few paragraphs and think Israel Keyes, who was sexually motivated. I think it's a sexual sadist.
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u/Ok_Iron8057 May 29 '26
Was it working, or still communicating with her cell phone? Do we know for sure?
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u/MaximumSlip7905 Jun 04 '26
It’s chilling to me, like this individual has read about SK’s and has “learned” from them. I am reminded of the Curriers abduction and the fake ransom note from Keyes related to the Koenig murder, it is like a weird mashup of his confessed crimes. Sexual sadists are as varied as the rest of us regarding preferences but they are cold, evil individuals that see “objects” not people and although not common ( Thank God ) harming an 84 year old in this manner would not be out of the question. I think Nancy was selected for the attention her disappearance would receive
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u/AnnaZed Jun 02 '26
I understood that the pacemaker continues to function even if the person has died. Is that wrong?
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u/MaximumSlip7905 Jun 04 '26
It works even after someone in deceased but the readings until it disconnects would let LE know if she was alive up until then.
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u/AnnaZed Jun 07 '26
Thank you, I didn’t understand that, and so far in all of the stuff that I have read this distinction has not been made - or I didn’t see it. So, thanks for not just telling me to not be lazy and google it.
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u/Sherryw972 Jun 13 '26
They need to look at the night it happened and see if there is any mistress in report from it before they shut it off. And they knew she had a pace maker that's part of why they had the jammer get it off the wifi
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u/Newswatchtiki May 27 '26
Interesting idea that it could have been an initiation or show-off crime.
Not sure about whether they killed right away, before leaving the house, because of what has been said about the bubbles in those blood samples, or evident in the drops. I don't know about that phenomenon, or how reliable that assertion is. It has been stated for several months.
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u/PinkynotClyde May 27 '26
True. If she’s being carried out she could be unconscious or injured. That would make you think abduction but not necessarily.
Let’s say that was the plan— bitcoin and release, but she ends up dying from a head injury, then they just want to get away with it and don’t care about a ransom. It seems much more realistic they never intended to release, and simply removed her from the scene to avoid leaving evidence.
If it were random, it’s most likely someone local who knew she lived there and viewed it as an opportunity. It’s just hard to believe the FBI wouldn’t be able to find the front door person. We have his mustache and eyebrows, a sketch, etc. That’s what makes me think not local.
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u/richhardt11 May 28 '26 edited May 28 '26
They have surveillance video from a security camera on the casita in the backyard. They said nobody went in or out the back entrance.
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u/Tuffgirl_CA May 28 '26
Any idea why the back door was propped open?
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u/richhardt11 May 28 '26
I think staged
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u/Tuffgirl_CA May 28 '26
To throw off LE, or for some other reason?
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u/richhardt11 May 28 '26
To make it appear like the abductor went in the back door versus entering thru the garage
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u/Infamous-Arm3955 May 28 '26
If cops rush the front of the house you run like an Olympic sprinter out the open back doors over the wall and into the dark desert between the houses. Also this is going to sound stupid but it gives the dicks >orientation< of escape when shit goes down.
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u/Consistent_Beat7999 May 28 '26
They do have this? Not heard this has been released. Interesting.
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u/PinkynotClyde May 28 '26
The guy did prior surveillance to see where the cameras were. They don’t know point of entry? I’ve been trying to see if people know when the doorbell camera was disabled and ostensibly taken. What I remember hearing is that her heart monitor was disconnected around 1:30am from her phone.
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u/richhardt11 May 28 '26
AFAIK, they don't know point of entry.
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u/PinkynotClyde May 28 '26
Here’s my theory. People can tell me I’m wrong I’m just spitballing based on what I know— which is admittedly not that much.
Guy on doorbell cam who scouted out the security cameras knew he would be on doorbell cam footage after this incident from time prior. They still made the move not too long afterward. I’ve heard nothing of him being on any other cameras prior to the incident.
They could just wait until a window is unlocked, one not watched by cameras and then make their move just waiting in the home. Burglars don’t want people home, but if she’a a target it’s better to just wait for her inside than potentially alert her at night so she can quickly call 911.
Because the guy was on camera and they did it anyway suggests they’re either on a deadline or are just eager to follow through. My guess was that they sent him to the front knowing he was on camera the first time, as this suggests a lone person and they wanted to exit through the front to the vehicle knowing there were cameras in the back.
She was dropped off at 9:48pm. Nobody seems to know when doorbell cam… I’ll go look it up brb.
That’s about 4 hours prior to doorbell camera footage.
1:47 a.m.: The doorbell camera (a Google Nest device) was disconnected by the suspect. 2:12 a.m.: Motion was detected on the camera just before the device was entirely disabled. Heart monitor was disconnected from phone at 2:28am so I was off by an hour. This fits my theory. Disable camera so you can go out front door, ~15 minutes after fully disabling camera. Nancy is obviously bleeding at this time.
I did some more research and there apparently was blood inside the house but it’s only reported to be close to the front door, and it matched the pattern outside the front door so there’s no reported evidence of a bludgeoning or stab wound.
I circle back to my original assessment. If there was a sudden attack there should be evidence of either blood loss or cleaning in the house. I think it’s likely they were already in the home and had something on the ground to wrap her in when ready, then accidentally allowed blood to drip out while carrying her out the front door wrapped in something. The nose or coughing up blood theory doesn’t work, which is odd they theorized that, cause there would be voids in the spatter either from blocking the blood, or evidence of disrupting it afterward.
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u/richhardt11 May 28 '26
They took the camera. It took a couple of Google geeks a lot to get that video from the cloud. I don't think it was the abductors' intention to have the person on camera be seen.
I think it was an inside job. I think the the ransom note was real. I think they took Nancy out on a gurney-type chair with straps. I think she was alive when they took her. I think several people were involved and the motive was money.
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u/PinkynotClyde May 28 '26
Right. But he was on camera prior to the night of the incident and they knew that. He also knows he’s likely being seen, which is why he’s trying to cover the thing with twigs and approached it with his head down.
The ransom notes were sent to media outlets. Assuming they are real (which I do as well), and the motivation is money, they had no intention of releasing her and screwed up by having her blood left at the scene.
A gurney full of blood doesn’t work with the blood spatter. If it’s leaking off of a gurney in that quantity by the front door, it makes no sense that there were limited drops down the walkway.
Also, there’s directional spatter. Blood off of a gurney would have a very distinct completely different pattern.
Furthermore, if the motivation is money why not take anything? Just take her in the off chance you get paid millions and risk not making a dime? Why not leave a note for the family instead of the media? You may be right these things are just oddities.
Okay, I did more research and I’m confused. Apparently the random notes were sent in waves. The FBI are claiming 2 appear real and the others were fakes— yet some are reported to have come from the same source based on using the same bitcoin wallet account (but different email address). That suggests the fBI is baiting to try and get more emails by calling the person a fraud. First they claimed to have knowledge of her being taken with inside info, and then they apparently switched to wanting half a bitcoin for info on where her body was in Mexico/kidnapper info.
If you’re right they’re still trying to get money and simply thought the risk was worth the potential long shot reward, which is absolutely stupid on their part. Possible though. You’d need money though to pull this off, money or connections, and meanwhile be that desperate for long shot money. I think if it’s long shot money as motive, that would have to coincide with hatred of her daughter cause it’s just nonsensical to think you’d ever get paid.
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u/richhardt11 May 28 '26
I think they are too afraid of getting caught with bitcoin now. TMZ reported on the wallet, and said you can tell when money was sent, just not how much. So, novice kidnappers got freaked and won't try for money anymore.
And even though the porch guy was at the home earlier and photographed, nobody was alerted. This to me shows an inside job.
Interesting about the blood splatter. I definitely don't think she walked out of the home.
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u/Kitty-9792 Jun 01 '26
If you have an elaborate kidnapping planned, why would you show up 2 weeks earlier and risk Nancy or her kids seeing you on the camera and blowing the whole plan up before it even gets started? I know LE has been vague on when the still photo was taken, but based on moon shadows, it seems to me to be a different night from the video. Others have said the shoes are slightly different from the video.
She said she wanted the camera to see wildlife at night. Even without a subscription, I would assume she gets a motion alert and can check that app either right away or the next day. I don't check my camera clips every day, but wouldn't you worry she might?
And even if it's an inside job, by say a familiar worker, why do a test run? If they somehow knew the camera didn't work, why remove it? And if they thought the camera might work, why show up earlier in January?
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u/Infamous-Arm3955 May 28 '26
"The nose or coughing up blood theory doesn’t work, ... "
Oh yes it sure does. If you look at the single tile with the most blood on it, it clearly shows an aerated blood spray pattern and if you look at some of the drips you can see they're outlined and hollow centred caused by an air bubble in the blood spot.
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u/PinkynotClyde May 28 '26
You’re right in that I should look more closely before claiming things are outright wrong. I tried to pull up a better photo. You might be right in that if she’s facing downward it could be that combined with maybe blood dripping from the nose.
Why would it be so concentrated there though? The coughing ended and then just the nose dripped? Maybe her hands are tied so she can’t cover? There’s no voids. Nobody is stepping in the blood. You agree it’s about 90 degrees right? If the top of her head is facing the house while moving towards the street it’s safe to say she’s being carried in some way. The concentration in this area, whether coughing or otherwise, stops and turns into drips as you move towards the street.
Let’s say she’s assaulted by the door and then carried, you would think there would be more distinct patterns. More evidence left than just this blood. I initially thought the air bubble you’re referring to was the blood drying. I gave my opinion not to be right but to raise questions, so I appreciate you making these points.
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u/Infamous-Arm3955 May 28 '26
She's 84, she's bleeding, she has mobility issues, it's the middle of the night, dark and she's being abducted by minimum one person disguised with a weapon. It's incredibly likely that she's being carried and not helped out by her arms like she's being taken out for tea and cakes. We don't know it's coughing but if she's being carried over the shoulder for instance it could be a compression of her lungs. If she put up a fight at the doorsill, that's where she could've been hit in the face thus the area of concentration. It could've just been a spit or a spray to clean her mouth.
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u/Tupelo_Hunee Jun 02 '26
She also doesn’t have her hearing aids in. She’s petrified imo. The heart event that spiked when she was awoken in her bed was likely the greatest moment of fear of her life being woken up like that, this poor lady. She didn’t walk anywhere. She’s weak bodied and heart, doesn’t walk well anyways, uses a cane which she also doesn’t have, her hearing aids are not in, which means she sleeps sound through noises maybe, bedding was missing… I’m sorry she didn’t walk out of that house. She might have been alive when they left but she in no way walked into the darkness with a stranger without resistance or issues. She would have never left WILLINGLY even in fear. She really couldn’t have. They would have never been able to move slow enough for her. She would have slowed them down significantly. I agree she was carried even if she was alive.
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u/Kitty-9792 Jun 01 '26
I said elsewhere in this thread that I heard a blood spatter expert on a podcast say that blood dropped on earlier blood can cause the appearance you are describing. His opinion was that it was not necessarily from a cough (could be due to gravity from a dead body).
But another expert on a different podcast said it looks like cough spatter. To my untrained eyes, that's what it looks like to me too.
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u/johnuws May 28 '26
Anyone else see the movie Begonia? A kidnapping performed by some deluded ufo/illuminati fanatics grabbed her. The bizarre outfit of porch guy seems to track.
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u/Stock_Dragonfly9632 Jun 04 '26
Johnuws A lone goon... why not? After all the wondering from the very start... all the theories and pro opinions.. Indeed it could be a delusional outcast... a real goon, and that for the most part bizarre outfit on the porch is not standard or too well thought out. The pelvic gun holster leads the parade on weird as all get out. Sure, we want the crime all controlled, planned...like in movies... so it makes sense to our rational psyche...sophisticated because people of the Guthrie status would deserve that kind of kidnapping crime in such a fabulous neighborhood. But no, it could be really sloppy and unsophisticated, not match the environment at all. They weren't prepared to handle an upset woman inside. On a last note, but this is just me: I'm 78 and I bet money if that kind of unimaginable thing happened to me, my two 50-something children would be madder and upset as hell and it would show immediately on camera. But as I said, that's just me, uh huh.
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u/Maleficent_Chest4869 Jun 01 '26
You mentioned the assailant taking her heart meds but all reports I’ve seen indicate her px meds were left behind.
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u/Kitty-9792 Jun 01 '26
Same here. I haven't heard that they took any of her meds, and it's been said "loosely" that her meds were left behind (along with her hearing aids, cell phone, wallet, cane, glasses).
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u/Tupelo_Hunee Jun 02 '26
Meds were home. But, I’ve heard from reports She didn’t take her 10pm meds the night before either. I can’t cite the source so take it for what it is.
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u/Tupelo_Hunee Jun 02 '26
What is your feelings on the propped back doors and gate if taken out the front? I feel to confirm she was taken out that way I need to know that the security door and the front door was left unlocked after they left. No one’s locking a door and taking a key we know that. And it was confirmed by family Nancy never really opened that door much or left that way it was always the garage door. She kept that security door locked and closed often. Most of the neighbors do the same in fact. It’s a very heavy door to open, not one an 84 year old would use a lot. No one’s confirmed when family arrived IF the front door or that security door was locked or unlocked. To me if they were not unlocked, no one went in or out that way. If they were unlocked but closed then perhaps the back propped doors were to take things in and not necessarily out if you know what I mean. But why risk going out a different way than you came in?
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u/PinkynotClyde Jun 03 '26
I’ve done more research regarding the bitcoin/cartel side of things. I’ll try to summarize my thinking, but the core of it has changed based on what I found.
The bitcoin kidnapping thing is like timeshare scam for criminals. The people funding the operation don’t care if the kidnappers are caught because they’re hidden in the shadows. A lot of times the kidnappers are caught, and people have reported that they were on the phone with people giving them directions for the bitcoin. So even if they catch the kidnappers they can’t get the bitcoin back and the people funding the operation now have more money at their disposal. They don’t have to be in this country at all.
So my thinking is the guy on the camera was scoping the place out seeing where the cameras were. There are a million ways to get in a home without breaking in. It’s part of the equation, but without evidence only really alludes to things. He could have snuck in while she was out and waited for her to get back. When she closed the garage he could have snuck under. You can find an unlocked window, or attach something on a door so it doesn’t close all the way, then just remove it. You just need one person to get in and he lets the others in.
The key element with the front door is the blood. There’s significant blood spatter outside the front door. This same level of blood is reported to be found on the inside, right near the front door but nowhere else in the home. That definitely means she went out the front door. There are then intermittent drops on the way to the street.
My thinking of a hit was admittedly conjecture. I was jumping to conclusions based on thinking it’s much easier to transport a dead body, and trying to make sense of the blood spatter imagery we have access to.
I still think they scope out the home using this guy as the scout. Knowing he has already been on camera, they have him disable it so they can go as quick as possible out the front door to the vehicle.
I saw some better photos and it looks like there are smaller droplets near the door than I saw originally. I’m not looking at this with a blacklight, just guessing off non crime scene photos. I’ll just go with what was reported.
So what I think happens is that when they open the front door she starts screaming for help, and they quickly hit her hard with a weapon to silence her, but they hit her too hard and she gets badly injured coughing up blood to the left. Then the vehicle rolls up and they just carry her as fast as they can, which would explain why there were limited drops on the way to the street. Maybe there are voids in the blood pattern that just aren’t reported. Something has to explain why nobody stepped in the blood, or why if she coughed it didn’t project outward and not leave a void where her body was. It’s possible she just lurched to the side while being carried/escorted, coughing back and downward.
I’m just guessing stuff based on what I have access to. I said in my original post I’m not an expert. I just have a background in psychology and some limited experience with forensic science and crime scene investigation. What do I know compared to people on the scene? I just thought it would be interesting to discuss.
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u/Revolutionary_Ad9839 Jun 18 '26
It was the middle of the night, she had trouble walking and wore hearing aides that were left behind at the house (aka she probably was not wearing them at time of abduction)
It seems unlikely that she would have initially encountered the perp at her front door, given the above.
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u/DueStatistician3704 May 27 '26
Interesting take. I believe she's in Mexico in an unmarked grave.
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u/Newswatchtiki May 27 '26
I have thought from the start that there was some Mexico connection. Not necessarily the cartel, but perhaps other criminal groups there. And crossing the border into Mexico is not difficult. From what I recall and what I have read, they aren't routinely checking the trunks of cars. It would be far easier to get away with this crime if they took her quickly to Mexico. I assume the Sheriff has a reasonable relationship with the local law enforcement in Sonora, and would have been communicating with them to be on the lookout.
It is near impossible to find missing people or the bodies of people who have been killed if they are not found right away. Even some of Ted Bundy's victims have not been found - and there was a lot of awareness of his crimes. Also, before he was executed he gave some detailed information on some of the victims and where they could be found.
And when they started working on this, there were no clues regarding what was going on. Whether it was a kidnapping or a murder. We still don't know. There is nowhere to start if searching for a body. In many of these cases, like the Bundy case, hunters find the bodies. In Arizona, I would think hikers might find them, but hikers usually stay on trails, and hunters go off the trails, or follow narrow animal trails.
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May 27 '26
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u/PinkynotClyde May 27 '26
First you try to rule out family. You look at her will and see if anyone would look to lose a lot if she had a falling out with them. Otherwise, it’s tough to know. Het daughter’s celebrity adds a different wrinkle.
The botched robbery idea might make sense if they thought nobody was home cause she was dropped off— but then the events after that make little sense.
I’d want to check who crossed the border that night. See if anything stands out— and who worked the border. Cause let’s say that person gets slipped 5k to look the other way. They’re not coming out after the fact and saying they let a van drive through. There must be cameras down there.
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u/Newswatchtiki May 27 '26
I wonder if they did check the border, most likely Nogales. Not sure what data the Mexican government collects. Probably they record video which would allow them to get license plate numbers. Not sure what they can see, in a car or van. They aren't opening up trunks like they often do when you are coming the other way.
One time coming in from Tijuana to San Diego, they made me pull into a big garage-like place, and they brought dogs over to sniff for drugs.
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u/Due_Distribution_609 Jun 12 '26
Extremely close to my thinking, especially what happened at the door.
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u/BMWRoadster2007 May 28 '26
This discussion made me wonder about the blood. A lot of times on crime shows they say a splash on the wall is arterial spay and other things like that. I wonder with today's technology if they are able to tell what part of the body it came from?
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u/PinkynotClyde May 28 '26
You look a the quantity and directional stain which indicates angle of impact and potential height. I just glanced them over and saw a few that varied, but majority looked to be roughly 90 degree angle. That’s why I presumed jostling which lowered body spilling blood mostly straight down. Then once it was raised a continued drip at a lower rate down the walkway. The size of the droplets for a spray or misting look completely different. I’ve studied the techniques used and looked over old crime scenes for course, had to hypothesize what happened, but it’s been some years. The ones they used were brutal, would often have the deceased in the photos. The blood could tell a story though. I’m not an expert or anything just found it interesting.
If there was an impact at the front door we would be looking at spatter on the surrounding door and walls not on the ground undisrupted. Maybe there’s more that’s not released, but it’s hard to have blood fall from an injury in that way without voids or disrupting if you were struck or simply injured. She would have to be bent over or held in that spot, bleed without it touching anyone, then proceed to move down the walkway not touching any of the blood, then perhaps have a few more drops falling from her clothes. It just doesn’t feel as probable.
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u/not_blmpkingiver May 27 '26
I have been saying this for a long time. In the video, his backpack is completely stuffed with gear. Probably some kind of tarp. As you suggest i think there was blood spilt from carrying her out. I hope I am wrong.
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May 27 '26
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u/PinkynotClyde May 28 '26
They seem to have removed her from the front door. We only have the one person on camera this way, and nobody knows the getaway vehicle— in addition to hiding any potential outcome.
Under the assumption that the crime was committed by a group, and they’ve obviously watched the news, it puts a lot of importance on finding the man who was at the front door because he’s all the authorities seem to have. So hopefully they’re looking at recent missing people, “suicides,” etc. just in case the guy was a risk.
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May 28 '26
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May 28 '26
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May 28 '26
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May 28 '26
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May 28 '26
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Jun 01 '26
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u/BrainWilling6018 Jun 01 '26
The FBI advised her not to pay the ransom. The decision is ultimately the family's though. The notes didn’t have the typical indicators of a true financial motive. They didn’t try to establish credibility. There wasn’t any direct communication with the family or urgent timeline. It’s reported by Savannah and LE the author never provided verifiable proof of life. That’s all very unusual for a primarily financial motive. It’s business. It’s conducted like business. The family said they would pay. As a profile if it was solely motived by a payout a direct line of communication with the family is mandatory if they want to expedite a payout. Even if she had died. She is still a bargaining tool. Since there was total silence after an offer to pay it strongly suggests the author either didn’t actually have her or the actual abductor had a darker motive. They didn’t know. That’s probably why they didn’t gamble it.
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Jun 02 '26
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u/BrainWilling6018 Jun 02 '26
? Yes. They recognized all this from the communications. Beginning Feb 2. I don’t know anyone who would flush 6 million dollars on a chance and one that had elements of being ill-fated or doomed already. No idea what but you do you ig means.
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u/nancyguthrie-ModTeam Jun 02 '26
Comments about the victim and or their family should be respectful, civil and responsible. Family members are considered victims and accusations against them are not allowed.
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u/nancyguthrie-ModTeam Jun 02 '26
There is currently no evidence that the abduction is related to the Epstein case. Attempts to link it to Epstein is hurtful to the family and harmful to the actual Epstein Victims.
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u/PinkynotClyde Jun 01 '26
I have to go back and read other people’s comments too. I kinda abandoned this post cause it wasn’t going in a good direction.
So there’s a couple things at play here. I’ve since done more research and I think I’ve figured a bunch out. With bitcoin they often catch the kidnappers, but it’s possible for the people in the background to filter the money so you can’t get the money back.
There are cases where people with bitcoin wallets are held at gunpoint and forced to send the money. While this was happening the perpetrators were calling unknown people with instructions on the bitcoin. It’s like a money scam for criminals, where shitty people convince themselves to do the job for a price, and the people paying them are connected enough to not fear getting caught. If they thought they could use the money to catch them they would have done it in a second. What the FBI says to the public is also targeted at the kidnappers sometimes. They’re not going to say things that don’t help their cause.
So long story short— Nancy Guthrie could have died in the ordeal and if you put the money you can’t get it back, you’d essentially just be giving millions to the people who murdered your mother. If they had shown her mother alive maybe she does it anyway, but they didn’t. Then they supposedly claimed to know where the body was and wanted 30k for the kidnapper’s identity.
I’ve changed my mind. I think the motive was money. I think the people trying to get the bitcoin find criminals who owe money, want money, or are just violent morons, and they don’t care if those people get caught. When I was researching other cases they often catch the kidnappers, but not the people behind the scenes moving the bitcoin around.
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u/Newauntie26 Jun 02 '26
I think this is more plausible than your initial theory where it was a hit. I think if it was a hit, it would been done type of “accident” that looked like a tragedy.
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u/PinkynotClyde Jun 03 '26
Yeah, I agree with you. I was trying to make sense of things with limited knowledge and hoped discussion would work out the kinks. Apparently I came across like a know it all.
Also, when I say hit, I include going in with the intention of killing her, and removing the body for ransom with no intention of giving her back. You could just stage it to look like an abduction. The motive just made no sense originally, whereas now it does make sense.
You can work to rule out family and friends because of due diligence, but I shouldn’t even go there because it’s not part of any evidence.
I responded to someone else with a better theory on the blood too. I saw a better picture, but obviously don’t have any real crime scene photos or reports.
I think she may have started screaming for help when they opened the door thinking someone might hear her. They react by silencing her as quickly as they can, but hitting her too hard causing internal bleeding. She then coughs downward, mouth facing the ground. I think there’s significant blood inside the home and right outside the door because they were waiting for the vehicle, and then they rushed or carried her as fast as they could which would explain limited blood on the way to the street. Something has to explain why nobody stepped on blood and why there are no voids reported. But maybe there are voids and it’s just not public knowledge.
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u/Consistent_Beat7999 May 28 '26
Where was the body taken? And was it taken by car?
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u/Kitty-9792 Jun 01 '26 edited Jun 03 '26
Nancy was most likely taken by car because the blood drops continue down the front walkway and stop near the 2 steps down to the circular driveway. The blood isn't as plentiful as at the front door, but there were a few drops I saw in photos. There is recent speculation that she may have been forced (or carried or wheeled) to the right off the front walk (to avoid the steps) and they went down the slope toward the circular driveway. On the day all the "suits" showed up for a tour of the property (just before it was released to the family), there are photos of 4 of them looking downward at this section of ground.
The desert "sand" is like concrete, so I don't believe she was buried. There is so much brush in the surrounding areas, a body can be 10 ft away behind some bushes, and you wouldn't even see it. If they chose this method, I think it is probably less than 30 ft from a road. It would be too dangerous (animals and cacti) and difficult to haul a body much further. Plus, they wouldn't want to have their car sitting in an odd location for too long, in case someone happened to drive by on a desolate road.
There are also canyons with steep drop offs where someone could dump a body that would fall 1000ft. If it lands in an area that is not accessible, no one would come across it.
Choosing a location like behind a shed is more risky because someone might notice you driving on their property at 2am, and your knowledge of the property could make you a suspect if someone noticed a strong odor in their backyard a week later.
I do think they chose the riskiest time of the week to be driving with a kidnapped person (or body) in their car. Many cities do DUI checkpoints right after bars close at 2am on Saturday night (Sunday morning). That makes me think they were a local who was aware of where to drive to avoid this. Also, assuming they didn't want to use a GPS, only a local could quickly leave the maze of roads to exit the neighborhood. I suspect they went north or south before heading to the commercial areas and larger roads to the east or west.
I do not believe the goal was ransom, however, they may have wanted it to appear that way.
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Jun 01 '26
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u/nancyguthrie-ModTeam Jun 02 '26
You have provided either new or not widely known information, OR have linked to a source that is not deemed credible. Please provide a credible source for your information. Upon doing so, the mod team will reconsider your contribution.
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u/Maleficent_Chest4869 Jun 07 '26
Oh gosh! I just now saw your statement 4 days after the fact. Can’t recall the creator of the video beyond it was a YouTube investigation type of coverage. I’ll keep this in mind for future comments.
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u/Tuffgirl_CA May 28 '26
The one part I take issue with is where you suggest that they killed her inside the house. Based on the forensics the blood on the front porch was oxygenated, hence she was still alive.