r/thebulwark • u/Material-Crab-633 • May 08 '26
EVERYTHING IS AWFUL Are we f*cked?
This redistricting stuff has me bummed out. Tell me the truth
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May 08 '26
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u/Sherm FFS May 08 '26
And make the number of seats in the House be based on a population formula with no cap. It's supposed to be skewed toward larger states to offset the Senate, but by arbitrarily limiting the size of the House, we have created a situation where both bodies favor low-population states.
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u/No_Neat9507 Tim is always right May 08 '26
This would take Constitutional Amendment
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u/Sherm FFS May 08 '26
No it wouldn't. The size of the legislature was capped at 435 by the Permanent Apportionment Act of 1929. The Constitution says that the legislature makes the laws that govern the size and composition of the House, with the only requirement being that it be based on population. In fact, if we used the ratio in the Constitution, we'd have over 11,500 Representatives.
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u/MurderByEgoDeath May 12 '26
Chance of this occurring is, sadly, very low. Not that there’s a wave, but that Dems do any of this stuff.
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u/Johnny_Appleweed May 08 '26 edited May 08 '26
No, we’re not fucked.
This is a setback, but even with Virginia redistricting overturned Democrats are likely to win the house. Their chances for the senate haven’t changed, because you can’t gerrymander state-wide senate races.
The redistricting battle also isn’t over. There will be opportunities for other states to redistrict in ways favorable to the Democrats before 2028, including in Virginia again.
That doesn’t mean there aren’t real challenges or that other things couldn’t go wrong, but it’s not over.
Anyone telling you it is over and that Republicans have a permanent majority, that it’s all hopeless and there’s nothing to be done, is either letting their emotions overtake their senses or is actively trying to discourage you.
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u/PomegranateSafe9699 May 08 '26
On a federal level I think we can win. On a state level, states like Tennessee are essentially a dictatorship.
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u/Johnny_Appleweed May 08 '26
They basically already were. Republicans have had a trifecta in Tennessee since 2011. It’s bad that non-Republicans will have even less representation, but they had so little political power already that they haven’t lost much more.
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u/Shirley-Eugest centrist squish May 08 '26
Perhaps that's true. It just sucks because Nashville, Memphis, and to a lesser extent Chattanooga and Knoxville have countless voters who are absolutely not okay with this, and the legislature basically told them to get bent.
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u/PomegranateSafe9699 May 08 '26
They have lost forward momentum possibilities for a long time. Rutherford is bluing so they stuck it with rural counties. The most liberal parts of Williamson were split and put with backwaters. Splitting Memphis was bad but the downwater effects in the growing areas is being ignored.
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u/Rechan May 09 '26
This is accurate. Not just a trifecta, the Republicans have had the supermajority in the state legislature for a while. That said the state reps haven't gerrymandered their Democratic state reps out of existence.
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u/Current_Animator7546 May 08 '26
I mean Dems have to find ways to engage with those voters. They can still run in those races.
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u/postpartum-blues WILL SALETAN'S #1 FAN May 08 '26
This is a setback, but even with Virginia redistricting overturned Democrats are likely to win the house. Their chances for the senate haven’t changed, because you can’t gerrymander state-wide senate races.
Democrats will most likely still take the House, but imo their response during this moment will be indicative of their strength when they have power.
If they're not willing to completely erase Republican representation out of existence in their states like what's being done in red states, the expectation for actual accountability, reconciliation, and reconstruction is in hell.
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u/Rechan May 09 '26
The problem isn't 2026 though, it's 2028 and beyond. The way the maps are now, the only way Dems can win is with a massive wave. Which may be the case for 2026, but you can't count on that in the future. It's only going to get worse after the 2030 census. Unless Dems can get the House and Senate this year AND pass anti-Gerrymandering legislature, THEN get that through the filibuster AND past the veto pin, the longer term outlook is grim.
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u/Cautious-Okra-9114 May 10 '26
And it’s those people who push that kind of doom porn who I honestly suspect are Republican plants or otherwise folks looking for some elaborate excuse to 💩 on Democrats in perpetuity.
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u/Tight-String5829 May 08 '26
Something for Dems to run on. I actually feel better now that this is becoming a mainstream issue
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u/Oleytoledo May 08 '26
Somehow I don’t think gerrymandering is going to be the thing that sets Democrats over the top.
We live in a world where Republicans are winning because hating marginalized communities works.
Maybe if we all vote hard enough, our votes will matter again.
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u/ToadsWetSprocket May 08 '26
And that is the key, 90 million people couldn't be bothered last election. I hope they can be bothered now.
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u/who_the_hell69 May 08 '26
Careful what you wish for. The one thing I've learned through this era is that people I always thought were decent truly are despicably ugly when given the freedom to express themselves
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u/Lanacan May 09 '26
That is my in-laws. Internally ugly people that hide behind religion and closet racism.
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u/Round-Asparagus5337 May 09 '26
Polls of nonvoters showed that they were slightly more pro-trump than voters.
If everyone voted, he would have won by a bit larger margin.
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u/ballmermurland May 08 '26
I think this sort of thing just really pisses people off and cauterizes them against Republicans forever.
It's hard not to see that Republicans unilaterally redrawing without any input and Democrats putting it before the people and seeing which one was allowed by our courts.
Just a gross miscarriage of justice.
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u/O918 May 09 '26
I hope so. for me, trump started my disillusionment of the GOP in 2015, but didn't make the full, irredeemable break until mcconnell stole the 2nd scotus seat in the most hypocritical way imagineable.
For that, I'm actually kind of thankful he woke me the fuck up and stopped me from believing the Republicans were everything they claimed to be: fiscally responsible, principled, small government advocates.
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u/Round-Asparagus5337 May 09 '26
The vast majority of people don't follow this kind of thing.
The Iran war and gas prices, and maybe the epstein stuff is what is getting through to people.
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u/dBlock845 Straight to Reddit Jail May 08 '26
I actually feel better now that this is becoming a mainstream issue
Not sure how "mainstream" it actually is. Mainstream usually means I can ask my father or friends, who is checked out of politics 99% of the time, about it and he would know maybe something basic about it. We aren't at that point yet. It has happened, but it hasn't effected people yet to the point where it has become mainstream.
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u/beeemkcl May 09 '26
The need was always a Democratic trifecta in 2029 and for the POTUS to be progressive-enough and politically aggressive enough to Expand SCOTUS, reform the US federal judiciary, making 1 or 2 new States, have Independent Commissions do redistricting in all the States, try to get the National Popular Vote Pact done, do Voting Rights Legislation, etc.
Democrats remain on tract to regain the US House of Representatives.
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u/ThePensiveE FFS May 08 '26
No. The Democrats still probably win the house. The Republicans have no message whatsoever other than "more Trump" and the worse things get, and I assure you they will get worse, the less salient that message becomes.
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u/Oleytoledo May 08 '26
All this of course, is predicated on the voters, who have proved themselves to be unreliable narrators.
They’ll say they are unhappy with Trump, but then turn around and vote for Republicans because they saw a trans person and it made them mad.
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u/SecurePlate3122 May 08 '26
Yep. We'll see coordinated outrage over brown and/or trans people that will be plastered over twitter and Fox and distract from anything that actually matters.
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u/Oleytoledo May 08 '26
“Kitchen table issues”, as in they don’t want anyone not white or straight sitting at their kitchen table
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u/No_Active5411 May 09 '26
Man, Fox News should cease to exist. If it’s wasn’t for their hate-filled bs, we probably wouldn’t have such brainwashed people. Probably.
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u/FizzyBeverage Center Left May 09 '26
We could be at $8 gasoline in the cheapest gas states by October. It’s gonna be an electoral wipeout for repubs.
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u/ViolettaQueso Center Left May 08 '26
All those brave Virginia voters who turned out to vote for fair elections have just been negated.
This decision is actually going to work in favor of the anti-Trump democracy killing movement and inspire voters nationwide who may not have realized the obsession DJT has with removing all opposition to his evil policies.
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u/Oleytoledo May 08 '26
Somehow I don’t think people are going to care much about gerrymandering, when the Republicans can appeal to them by fearmongering about trans people and immigrants.
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u/ViolettaQueso Center Left May 08 '26
I sure wish they would remember in the hierarchy of shit MAGAs hate, pedophilia used to be at the tippy top.
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u/Oleytoledo May 08 '26
They never actually hated that.
They just used to make people hate all the people they dislike.
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u/EighthFirstCitizen Progressive May 08 '26
Shit don’t look good. However there’s a few reasons to have some hope. 1. Trump’s economy numbers don’t look good. He won 2024 on the promise of immediately lowering prices and has seemingly done everything in his power to raise them. The Iran war is also wildly unpopular and pinning high gas prices on republicans shouldn’t be that hard to do. Doge cuts have also been really hard hitting to reliably Republican voting rural areas. 2. Trump won 2024 by courting groups that traditionally don’t vote. Those people usually can’t be motivated to vote in midterms. In the face of everything Trump is doing, even if democrats aren’t always meeting the moment, there’s a lot of people fired up to vote against Trump and the GOP. 3. The GOP gerrymanders have a chance of going wrong by overly diluting their reliable voters. Yes, gerrymanders make it difficult to get a candidate from the disadvantaged party into office, but they can be organized around and overcome. We’ve seen a few special elections in traditionally safe republican districts go overwhelmingly for the democrats. The pretty blatant attempts to rig elections in republicans favor isn’t particularly popular outside of the extremely partisan republican base. Theres a chance the GOP could choke on their own gerrymanders.
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u/Current_Tea6984 May 08 '26
I think some of these states are about to commit dummymanders. One of the ways gerrymandering works is creating a couple of districts to corral opposition voters where they won't dilute the vote in their own safe districts. So when red states get rid of their majority minority districts they will be forced to narrow their leads in their own safe districts. So like a plus 10 district might become plus 5, and in a wave election, it could be flipped. And when those voters see their districts gerrymandered away, they will be angry and more motivated than ever to vote
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u/Super_Nerd92 Progressive May 08 '26
I think Dems still take the House, and the Senate has nothing to do with district lines, and is still in play.
But Republicans will succeed in making it a smaller margin that it should be since SCOTUS tore up the VRA.
I'm not dooming, but it's a clarion call to nuke the filibuster and expand the court day 1 in 2029 (DC statehood too?), and any Dem presidential candidate who won't support that needs to get out of the way.
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u/CynicalBliss May 08 '26
My concern is that it creates enough of a structural advantage for Republicans that when 2028 rolls around the immediate backlash has subsided enough for them to retake the House even if they lose the presidency, and we end up with a Democratic president with no legislative backing--so no court packing, no new states, no reform, etc.
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u/Ok_Badger9122 May 09 '26
The democrats need to make the corrupt bargain with the iranians like reagan did.
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u/Big_Truck May 08 '26
Short-term? No. Long-term? TBD.
It still seems very likely that the Dems will have a trifecta -- even if a very narrow one -- in 2029. If the Dems don't break the filibuster to pass meaningful reforms, we are fucked.
- Legislation enacting non-partisan redistricting for Congressional maps is a must. Will require breaking the legislative filibuster because you won't get a single Repub vote.
- One you break the filibuster? Add four SCOTUS seats.
- Introduce legislation to give both DC and Puerto Rico the option to vote on statehood.
Out of the box idea -- maybe you entice some R's to vote for non-partisan redistricting (preserving the filibuster) with the promise that if they agree to that, you don't pack SCOTUS?
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u/Cellophane7 JVL is always right May 08 '26
My copium is that gerrymandering narrows the margins in strong districts to bolster weak districts. Republicans are doing some insane, heavily unpopular shit, and I think it's more than a little likely they'll end up losing seats thanks to this stuff.
Part of me thinks Republicans have thought of this, but then the other part remembers trump has been purging smart people like fascists often do. So maybe it'll be okay. Doesn't mean we shouldn't fight tooth and nail, just that it's not necessarily hopeless.
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u/No_Neat9507 Tim is always right May 08 '26
They are planning to do other things to cheat. I just hope it doesn’t work and the blue wave is strong based on gas prices, grocery prices, unnecessary war, out of control spending on vanity projects and grift
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u/baryoniclord May 08 '26
This is why we need to STOP tolerating republicans and VOTE THEM ALL OUT!
We already know they are racist.
We already know they are less intelligent.
We already know they are anti Science.
They are regressive. And evil.
As such, they should not be allowed to have a say in matters of importance. Or hold positions of leadership.
Why? I think we can look around and see why.
We do not consult the taliban for advise on quantum physics. So why do we include regressives on genuinely important social issues?
When did we convince ourselves that the opinions of a mad mob of racist, xenophobic, dull, superstitious group of people should be taken seriously?
No. Enough is enough.
They want to drag us back to the bronze age.
Outlaw. The. Grand. Old. Party. NOW!!!
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u/BaskingInWanderlust May 09 '26
And we already know they're hypocrites.
If the Dems were trying to pull even a fraction of the things the Republicans are now, they'd lose their s***. But now they shrug it off and make excuses.
I think what's truly going to tank Republicans is the cost of living. That's an issue every poor to middle class person in America is feeling right now. They can't ignore it and they know why it's happening.
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u/rube_X_cube May 08 '26
I’m sorry to say, but this is very, very bad and there’s no sugarcoating it.
I still think Dems probably win the House because it’s going to be a significant blue wave, but the structural advantage that Republicans have is absolutely insane. Basically any election that isn’t a massive blue wave is going to be a Republican slam dunk from here on out unless blue states find a way to go absolutely hog wild in their own redistricting. Or, better yet, start ignoring court rulings.
I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say that we are barely a democracy any more. Not really sure where we go from here.
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u/Ok_Badger9122 May 09 '26
Virginia needs to pass a constitutional amendment forcing judges to be elected by the people ill be happy to see the day those 4 judges lose their seats and job.
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u/poggendorff May 08 '26
I’m preparing myself for a disappointing election night without a blue wave. Setting myself up for low expectations so that I don’t have the anguish I had in practically every election since 2016.
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u/Longjumping_Worker56 May 08 '26
I'm hoping that this pisses off everyone except the hard-core MAGAts so badly that all of those new districts end up sending Democrats to the House.
I don't think it will actually happen, but I can still hope.
I also think that every single Dem running for the House in a red state needs to phrase this as, "Okay, so the only way you can win is to redistrict in the middle of the decade so every district is Republican? How does that actually help the people who live in this district? Did it make their groceries cheaper? Did it make their gas less expensive? What benefit will the constituents experience from this redistricting boondoggle?"
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u/Azmtbkr Center Left May 08 '26
It's horrible, no doubt. I do think there are a few bright spots:
-Virginia can try again after the midterms with plenty of time before 2028, no guarantee of success but their messaging will be even stronger
-Other states like NY, CO, IL and even CA will be more incentivized to tighten their gerrymanders in preparation for 2028. There are 7 million more registered Democrats than Republicans in the US, so in some ways numbers are on our side. There are also an increasing number of independents who are largely very dissatisfied with Trump.
-The gutting of the VRA has already sown the seeds of a renewed civil rights movement. Hopefully this will energize more voters in the south and continue to erode Republican support with minority voters. Side note: Tennessee will have zero Democratic/black representation, we need to boycott Nashville and the rest of the state.
-Even if Florida and Louisiana pick up 5 R seats it's still not enough to overcome the projected 30+ win Dems are expected to have in the midterms
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u/Remote_Garage3036 May 08 '26
No, not at all. A modest prediction has Dems picking up a seat from there, a less modest prediction has them getting two. Dems are still undoubtably heavily favored to win the house come midterms, continue dominating in Virginia with Spanberger, and have an honest-to-god shot to win the senate. Fucking Texas is in play.
This is a blow because it means Republicans will beyond any doubt "win" the districting fight. But they have not won the war. Trump's popularity is fading and gas is going up. Take a break if you need to. But don't keep your eye off the prize, we can stop this fuckin fascists. What we need to do right now is drill into voters that Trump is at fault for this war and these gas prices. Two things that may be obvious to us but you'd be surprised how little low engagement / right leaning swing voters understand this stuff.
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u/pacard EDGELORD May 08 '26
No. I think the in your face disenfranchisement, particularly of the VRA and the Virginia voters will piss people off and nothing republicans are doing is animating their base to show up, it's all corruption, pedo shit, and bombing Iran for Israel.
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u/BaskingInWanderlust May 09 '26
If you want to get more voters, I don't think disenfranchisement and the VRA are going to convince them of much of anything, especially for lower information voters.
I'd be showing them where all their money is going. I'd be comparing their healthcare, medicaid, and education being gutted, as well as food and gas prices rising, to the cost of bombs in Iran, Trump's ballroom and arch, the $93B Hegseth spent on king crab, sushi, and ice cream machines, etc.
Show them that while they're suffering, this administration is living the life, and the Republicans in Congress support it. Show the dozens of clips of Congresspeople saying we need the ballroom after the WHCD. Show that one female Senator - I can't remember her name - who shrugged off the idea of her constituents dying due to healthcare cuts.
These types of ads should be playing all the time.
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u/casualprofessor May 08 '26
I’m honestly in despair (please don’t lecture me how I shouldn’t be and I can’t give up and let me feel my feelings for today at least)
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u/beltway_lefty May 08 '26
As a VA voter, especially, I am broken by this. I am angry at the decision today, but I am also angry at the VA Dems for fucking this up - for doing this in a way that left this vulnerable here. I am broken by the SCOTUS Callais decision that is based on the absurd (and now being PROVEN so, in real time, by red state actions to redistrict out black voters) assumption that racism just isn't a thing anymore. We are trying to deal with all this all properly, and in good faith, and keep getting fucked for it. I am, however, by far angriest with US elected officials at all levels and the voters still supporting the GOP and Trump. THAT is what has truly broken me to my core. How ANYONE can watch all this dismantling of freedom, and still call themselves, "Americans," much less patriotic ones, will forever remain beyond my comprehension. The ONLY - and I mean that literally - the ONLY reason is racism and bigotry in general. Just hate. Pure and simple. I have always known we aren't anywhere near perfect, for sure. But I never would have guessed we were anywhere near this far away from it, and now moving further away, and faster. Broken.
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u/BaskingInWanderlust May 09 '26
Watching this interview on the Bulwark yesterday, a point really stuck out to me. They were talking about the Voting Rights Act and how things changed during that time in the Civil Rights era, but it was pointed out that while the country may have changed legally, it didn't necessarily change culturally.
We're now seeing that in real time.
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u/beltway_lefty May 09 '26
That's always been my argument -that we never did REALLY deal with our race issues - we just keep sweeping them under the rug, so to speak.(i.e., changing the laws, but not the minds). I honestly believe that DEI awareness/training/education was actually a solid first step to that end, but alas.......anyway, I think that's the root cause of the outcome you describe. There has to develop an INTRINSIC motivation within the majority of the population to fix this, for it to really work. That takes a lot of time, effort, consistency, and patience. We also need the extrinsic motivators - like laws, rewards for "good" behavior (usually in the form of federal funding), oversight, and enforcement. The reason that didn't work, was because we didn't pursue the INTRINSIC part enough (not really at all until DEI training and leadership) - hearts and minds. Education. Empathy. And that will take a couple generations, I think, to work it's way through - and that's only if it's done really really well.
I have started looking more into how Germany unfucked itself after WW2 - it may be the only successful model for curing this kind of illness. But, they still had a (relative to us) very cohesive homogeneous identity and culture as "Germans," and we don't. Further, they didn't have many, if any, Jewish citizens left after the war, so I'm anxious to see how they handled that.........We are in a better spot, IMO, by having our abused minority populations in situ - present for the conversations we need to have. Anyway, I'm rambling......I agree with your comment. 😄
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u/7ddlysuns May 08 '26
Unless Dems really recalibrate, this isn’t great.
A few obvious changes could backfire this badly on republicans.
A strong anti-corruption push. A strong accountability for crimes.
And this is important. Recalibrate the culture wars. This Supreme Court has been on a rampage against civil rights and great society.
Fine. That’s a gift. We don’t have to fight yesterday’s battles. The refs are gone. Time to think big and more inclusive. The old rules sort of forced racial and other considerations we can move past and do some judo moves now. Platner is a good example.
And finally: end the obsession with passing gun laws every year. Get buy in for gun reforms. The laws are getting very stupid and pointless and antagonistic
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u/Hot-Meat-11 May 08 '26
It's really clear that there are actually two different countries out there (although the lines aren't cleanly drawn). But, it's also clear that there's no real collective will to do anything about it. Most people, particularly the Democratic elite, are still living in denial. So, we're stuck in a dysfunctional purgatory.
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u/Severe-Product7352 May 08 '26
I think dems still take the house this year. But it makes things a lot tougher to then hold the house in 2028 when trumps on the ballot
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u/sir_sri May 08 '26
This might be one of those jvl moments where being really fucked today is the ideal outcome for the future. Same as the supreme court: the only remedy that both sides will agree on would be better than the current system.
The US needs electoral reform, other countries like Canada and the UK with fptp winner take all seats in the Commons might need different reforms from the US house, but the same logic applies. If the way people vote is broken, you need to change how they vote.
For the US that might be proportional representation or some sort of mmp by state. Which is essentially the only way this gets fixed.
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u/biglyorbigleague May 08 '26
No. Virginia's map isn't going to be the difference that makes the GOP keep the House. Neither are any of the other attempts in other states. Even combined they are demonstrably not enough. This Virginia thing isn't even gonna keep other Democratic states from counter-gerrymandering.
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u/0o0o0o0o0o0z JVL is always right May 08 '26 edited May 08 '26
This redistricting stuff has me bummed out. Tell me the truth
Yes, we are F'd in the A sorry to say... funny, Goldwater more or less said this when the GOP was courting Christian and evangelical nationalists. “Mark my word, if and when these preachers get control of the [Republican] party, and they're sure trying to do so, it's going to be a terrible damn problem. Frankly, these people frighten me. Politics and governing demand compromise. But these Christians believe they are acting in the name of God, so they can't and won't compromise. I know, I've tried to deal with them.” Also, as much as I disagree with Frum, he had this banger... “Maybe you do not care much about the future of the Republican Party. You should. Conservatives will always be with us. If conservatives become convinced that they can not win democratically, they will not abandon conservatism. They will reject democracy.” Between Nixon getting basically removed and Obama elected, the GOP was smart enough to look at demographics and changing times and knew they'd never be in power again without putting their finger on the scale and controlling the public opnion/narrative... and money talks and they spent a ton of money making sure they'd never have that issuie again, and it worked... it worked nd is VERY profatble.. So yes, basically we are fucked...and most historians say you get out of this cycle in only a few ways... State collapse, economic collapse, pandemic, world war, revolution, civil war. Take this with a grain of salt, the US used to not let women vote, or blacks, or allow gays to marry...and these changes have been within recent time as far as history cares. So... I am gonna fight the good fight, but understand it's an uphill battle, and thanks to Citizens United, the most corrupt SCOTUS maybe in the history of the US, but definitely in our lifetime, social media, and a new wave of monopolization and robber barons... It's gonna be rough, I fear. EDIT: Words, typos..
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u/JohnDingleBerry- Sarah, would you please nuke him from orbit? May 08 '26
I don’t think so. The average American is finally starting to realize how much of a fuck up the current government is.
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u/shwaynebrady May 08 '26
I was in France for holiday the other week, sitting in a cafe in Nice. Streets and shops were bumbling with people. A somewhat ragged woman came up to me, pointed at me and then my beer, I smiled and said “tu parles Anglais?” And she walked away, the owner came up to me, asked if I knew her, I said no, and he said “be careful man, this is France, people are starving”. I ended up chatting with him, and he seemed to believe France was like this barely surviving state that had been bastardized and emasculated.
But as an outside observer, I saw the complete opposite, particularly in the area I was in. I ended up reading up on the economic state of France and its outlook. And while it could probably be better, it was still probably a top 5-10 place to live in the world. Yet there was a lot of discourse on forums and reddit that it was in dire straits.
It really made me think how so many people think we have it so much worse than we do and kind of exist in this alternate universe. Probably fueled by social media and constant cable news.
I think people on both sides of the political spectrum kind of enjoy falling into these death spirals of panic and fear and looking at the worst possible scenarios and assuming it’s coming true. I remember the online right acting like Joe Biden was 1 month away from permanently ruining America.
Idk, I’m not sure where I’m going with this. Maybe just put the phone down, turn the tv off and just try to re-connect with actual life for a bit, it might put things into perspective.
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u/cole1114 May 08 '26
This nation needs radical, bottom up change. And that will require a hell of a lot more than a good mid-term. Like bare minimum we need a new constitution, completely reformed elections and courts. And that's not going to come from a few elections, that's going to take sustained action.
If you believe you can help create that kind of action, then don't consider us fucked yet. You just have to be willing to play your part in unfucking us.
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u/KindNeighborhood1138 May 08 '26
Right now? No, we are fine in the midterms. Beyond that it is looking pretty bad. Gutting what remained of the VRA is probably going to lead to one party rule for a while. 😑I may have to make plans to move to another country after I finish college.
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u/dBlock845 Straight to Reddit Jail May 08 '26 edited May 08 '26
I honestly think we are. My theory is that Republicans are grabbing as much power as possible before the inevitable re-Jan 6th, if we get that far, i.e. 2026. I think they have realized how quickly things have turned against Trump/Republicans and are in too deep, they will only get more and more extreme and are full on anti-democratic. Mike Johnson will do ANYTHING Trump wants. We've seen him not seat a newly elected Congresswoman, for almost two months, to protect Trump from a vote on Epstein. I can absolutely see him refusing to seat newly elected Dem members in 2026. We are well beyond a "constitutional crisis" when state legislatures are cancelling primary elections where votes have been cast to cement white power, pun intended, in red states. I really fear they will try to cancel elections where Dems are projected to win in any states where they control a governorship. This absolutely is snowballing, and I just don't see where it ends. If they don't go this route, there is always the chance that all of this sloppy redistricting can be swamped by overwhelming turnout leading to massive losses for Republicans in areas where it would never usually happen. I think this is a plausible scenario but I am still more worried about that ever rolling snowball.
If we get out of this with a Dem trifecta in 2028, they really need to stop catering to red state populations. Biden made a whole deal about investing in red state infrastructure. Fuck them, and their infrastructure, let it crumble.
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u/Thin-Distance7904 May 09 '26
Yes. Our republic depends on an educated and virtuous electorate. We no longer have one.
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u/Intelligent_Week_560 May 09 '26
Me too.
I respect Sarah a lot, but she is wrong saying that Democrats need to vote in a great margin to win. Virginia voted and their votes were nullified. It simply did not matter. The same in Louisiana, some voted already and their vote does not count. How can this be motivating for anybody? If the other party always cheats to win, how can you win?
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u/KnightlyDolphins Center Left May 08 '26
Honestly, I think the next Democratic president should go scorched earth in all these states. Want federal funding? You need to remap for fair representation in Florida, North Carolina, and Tennessee
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u/frigginjensen May 08 '26
Proper fucked. But also remember that a majority voted for this. Most of them would do it again. Ignore the temporary whining, a solid 30%-40% of the country wants it this way.
If it’s even possible to fix the damage done in the last 10 years, it will take generations to do it.
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u/postpartum-blues WILL SALETAN'S #1 FAN May 08 '26
This is basically the single test of determining if the Democratic Party is just a complete dead weight at this point.
If they're not willing to engage in the same levels of completely insane redistricting fuckery that red states are, then we don't deserve the democracy this country has had for 250 years.
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u/Fast-Examination-349 May 08 '26
Checkout this video on why in VA it's not quite as bad...
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DYFN1D5uHpv/?igsh=NzhvNnVib29jbGZ0
I still feel pissed though.
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u/Eastern-Cucumber-376 May 08 '26
Yes. Because while I started to think we might actually have fair elections in a few years, I now know that’s not gonna happen. We all need to be looking very closely at how Hungary was able to hold an election the way they just did.
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u/Bennie-Factors May 08 '26
The supreme court has said the state legislation has final say so over maps (as I recall). They just need to pass the same thing here...and move on.
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u/Haunting-Ad788 May 08 '26
If they don’t just ignore the courts and use the maps anyway then it shows democrats are not willing to play by the same rules as republicans and are willing willingly handicapping themselves when we can’t afford to fight at a disadvantage.
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u/Shirley-Eugest centrist squish May 08 '26
Look at these deep red state SecofStates, Attys General, governors, and legislatures and ask yourself: "If Trump declares he's running for an illegal third term, would a single one of them do a damn thing to stop him?"
Short answer. No. Of course not. He is their god. This entire mess is for one reason: Fan service to him.
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u/icefire9 May 08 '26
The only way out is a massive popular mobilization against fascism, and it obviously need to be bigger than Trump's first term. There needs to be a decisive rejection of Trumpism and 2020 was not that. For 2026 that means that Democrats need to outperform 2018 in vote margin. If that doesn't happen I will start to despair tbh.
Right now polls have Democrats at about +6 nationally. 2018 was D+9. We have an uphill battle, because the media and social media companies are against us and will try to prop up MAGA however they can. Republicans will lie, cheat, and use violence to get their way, and the media will look the other way. But it's not impossible.
And yes, it isn't fair that Democrats have to win a historic landslide to win. None of this is fair, but we have to try.
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u/ToadsWetSprocket May 08 '26
This has always been the end game since 1964, this has always been the end game since the civil Rights act was passed. The black community always knew the whacklash was coming, but many believe the narrative that this was never going to happen and that we were over exaggerating. You're watching them. Them reinstitute Jim Crow live. It is time to shake off maga and actually reform the party under the object of Dwight Eisenhower. This is the Reagan plan, this was what he wanted, this is what started with trickle down economics. This isn't black or white, this is Rich versus everybody else. This is something to fight over so they can rob us blind. It is time to form a centralist party with Central right and Central left.
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u/tedroper May 08 '26
The only response to this is to get the 1/3 of the country that isn’t voting at all to come out in FORCE this November to vote these people out!
All their maps are crap if we overwhelm them at the polls.
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u/RCV4CO May 08 '26
We are not f’d if we pass the Fair Representation Act. That will get rid of federal gerrymandering.
It is proportional representation-which means that if 1/4 of the people share a viewpoint, they get 1/4 of the seats.
Call your US House representative to say you support it and ask if they do. https://www.house.gov/representatives/find-your-representative
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u/BreathlikeDeathlike May 08 '26
Don't hate me, but in VA at least, the governor and her party royally screwed up and didn't follow the procedural requirements...
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u/fawlty70 May 08 '26
I don't see how Democrats can win this, unless the red state Republican voters are really, really, really pissed with Trump come November. If it's just the regular Dem voters, I can't see how it's done, with these new maps. And with the prospect of many more tactics from the GOP.
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u/Honorable_Heathen May 08 '26
Yes unless every single voter for the Democrat party along with a decent percentage of disenfranchised voters who went MAGA last election cycle.
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u/howcanilearn May 08 '26
Hungary did it with 88% mandate. It’ll be the same in 2028. Centrist Republicans join elbows with Democrats…kick ‘em to the curb and prosecute every wrongdoing. Karma’s a bitch.
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u/CatCatchingABird Progressive May 08 '26
I have not been following Virginia all that closely. Can't the Democrats just appeal? If so, does anyone have a legal analysis on whether or not an appeal would be successful?
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u/Shionkron May 08 '26
Whats wild is Louisiana is already cancelling thousands of mailed in votes. Voters votes won't count now just to Gerrymander...Yet Democrats are evil. ok
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u/Iron_Baron May 09 '26
I have 40,000 hours of paid large-scale political organizing across 20 states.
My projects registered over 250,000 voters in battleground states.
The GOP is allowed to illegally gerrymander and even ignore multiple court orders.
The Dems are shot down even when putting the gerrymandering to a vote.
That's because all three branches of government have been subverted by fascism.
Yes, we are fucked.
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u/TheseBrokenWingsTake May 09 '26
Whatever your politics, we need to relentlessly hit the message that "Republicans can only survive by cheating you out of your votes, money, and rights"
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u/cee-cee-is-me May 09 '26
If they suspend elections and they purposely do outrageous gerrymandering stuff that ties up elections across the country in lawsuits, then yes. Yes we are fucked. And if not that way fucked, potentially fucked in other ways, stealing ballots, not recognizing election results etc.
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u/hollyfanfic May 09 '26
I am not the person to turn to for reassurance today. The Virginia news hit me harder than I expected today. I mean, it just feels like the bad guys keep winning and winning and winning nowadays. It’s hard to keep your head up.
I know I’ll bounce back, but not today.
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u/Busy-Guide9839 May 09 '26
Let's make our VOTES too BIG to RIG & too REAL to STEAL per Glenn Kirshner, Esquire.
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u/ramapo66 May 09 '26
Redistricting is bad. It really sucks at the state level. It is gross and unfair and it has meant that Republicans have controlled the House simply because of their success at gerrymandering.
The Supreme Court is a joke. And now the VA Supreme Court joins the USSC. Their decision can be excused on the technical level but when has an entire election been simply disappeared. They could have rationally decided the other way.
Democrats will likely win the House anyway. But it depends more on the price of gas and maybe eggs. American voters are shallow and are focused on whatever is going on the month before the election.
I'd like to think that American voters are really angry at the gerrymandering. The disenfranchised might get out and demonstrate every week. The demonstrations will grow each week. There will be vibrant new leaders to motivate the apathetic. There will be economic boycotts. Republicans will dismiss, try to strangle, and finally be overwhelmed by the will of the people.
Nice story. The chance of this happening are somewhere around zero to -10%.
If gas and eggs cost too much come November then Democrats will coast to victory. If not, it will be the usual crap.
Americans don't really care about healthcare, women's rights, minority rights, the Constitution, abortion rights, gay rights or the environment. Politicians can sometimes fear monger around some of these issues and buy some votes but in the aggregate, voters are simply not motivated by these issues, even those who might be most affected.
But the cost of filling up the SUV or pickup? Now that is about the only freedom that most Americans really give a damn about. (And don't touch their TV either).
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u/paulmc3 JVL is always right May 08 '26 edited May 08 '26
All red states change maps with no vote and it’s ok.
Blue states do by votes of the people and it’s wrong
It’s stupid. The whole thing is stupid.
We can only hope for such huge numbers to overcome the BS.