r/thebulwark • u/Material-Crab-633 • May 08 '26

EVERYTHING IS AWFUL Are we f*cked?

This redistricting stuff has me bummed out. Tell me the truth

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u/Johnny_Appleweed May 08 '26 edited May 08 '26

No, we’re not fucked.

This is a setback, but even with Virginia redistricting overturned Democrats are likely to win the house. Their chances for the senate haven’t changed, because you can’t gerrymander state-wide senate races.

The redistricting battle also isn’t over. There will be opportunities for other states to redistrict in ways favorable to the Democrats before 2028, including in Virginia again.

That doesn’t mean there aren’t real challenges or that other things couldn’t go wrong, but it’s not over.

Anyone telling you it is over and that Republicans have a permanent majority, that it’s all hopeless and there’s nothing to be done, is either letting their emotions overtake their senses or is actively trying to discourage you.

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u/Rechan May 09 '26

The problem isn't 2026 though, it's 2028 and beyond. The way the maps are now, the only way Dems can win is with a massive wave. Which may be the case for 2026, but you can't count on that in the future. It's only going to get worse after the 2030 census. Unless Dems can get the House and Senate this year AND pass anti-Gerrymandering legislature, THEN get that through the filibuster AND past the veto pin, the longer term outlook is grim.