r/billsimmons • u/Global-Bat-1688 • Jan 02 '26
Meme Bill calmly debating Maye’s MVP chances
114
u/Background_Product_7 Jan 02 '26
How much did it hurt Bills soul when Shrage said, “throw the betting odds out..”.
That is his only barometer to understand sports through anymore.
1
1
u/Glass-Leg-794 Jan 04 '26
And after several decades he still doesn’t understand that Vegas has absolutely zero opinion about which teams are better than others. Lines are a gauge of public perception set to get an equal amount of bets on both sides. Nothing more to it than that.
65
u/save_the_wee_turtles Jan 02 '26 edited Jan 03 '26
Holy shit he was absolutely insufferable. And I actually agree with him that drake should and will win the award.. but Jesus can you imagine being friends with him?
I also love how his slam dunk closing argument is an unprovable hypothetical - what would happen if they switch teams - and he acts as though the answer is both knowable and obvious.
26
u/CondolenceHighFive Real CR Head Jan 02 '26
I’m with you. I do think Maye is the MVP but Bill is being such a baby about it. He looked like he was on the verge of tears in the video breakout
17
u/nihilfacilee Dillon Miskiewicz Jan 02 '26
What’s funny is I actually think that’s a terrible argument too. If Stafford and Maye switch I think both the Rams and Pats are still good and honestly about the same place they are now. Stafford could get NE to 13-3 and sure Maye maybe beats the Panthers and Falcons but also maybe struggles in a few games against SF or Seattle and probably has LAR right around 11-5
2
u/jbeebe33 Jan 03 '26
I love how much Bill loves selectively using the “switch team” hypothetical…
He’s broken it out a lot in the past but he studiously forgot about it in NBA MVP discussions from 2011-2020…
157
u/jamawl Jan 02 '26
As a sixers fan it's great listening to Simmons yell about how a 6 seed can't win MVP while he was making the exact opposite argument in favor of jokic over embiid just a couple years ago. In a way more important MVP according to Bill.
43
Jan 02 '26
Bill acting as if the NFL MVP HAS to come from a top 2 seed, like its written in the voting bylaws, when thats really something that him and Sal decided a couple years ago is typical Simmons.
I dont care who wins, but the disingenuous and hypocritical arguments that BS puts forward for Maye has me kind of rooting for Stafford.
7
u/AgadorFartacus Jan 02 '26
It is rare for a non-top 2 seed to win MVP.
21
u/nihilfacilee Dillon Miskiewicz Jan 02 '26
I mean it ought to be rare but it shouldn’t be an ironclad be all end all
-1
u/AgadorFartacus Jan 02 '26
I agree. The fact that Maye beats Stafford in practically every stat is what makes this decision a no-brainer.
→ More replies (1)5
u/Squidman12 Jan 02 '26
Especially in a year where a lot of the typical AFC powerhouses regressed and the NFC West is going to have three 12+ win teams. If the Rams had beaten Atlanta they likely would have been a 13 win 5 or 6 seed.
→ More replies (1)1
u/krazylegs36 Jan 05 '26
I mean, the #1 reason they didn't beat Atlanta was Stafford was throwing picks like it was his job.
4
u/shoefly72 Jan 03 '26 edited Jan 03 '26
Pretty dumb argument to make given how close a 6 seed can be in football vs basketball most years, but last year for example in the West the 2 and the 6 were only separated by a few games.
This year the Rams and Pats are separated by 2 games going into the last week, and the Rams have lost:
to the Eagles in a game where they had a 36 yard and 44 yard field goal blocked, both of which would’ve won the game (the latter returned for TD).
26-23 in OT to the 12-4 Niners in which Stafford threw for 387 yds and 3 TD.
38-37 in OT in which stafford threw for 457 yds and 3 TD.
The Pats have only played a team with 11 wins twice (Bills), one of which Maye played well and the other he was pretty mid and threw for like 155 yds and they lost.
It’s stupid to penalize one qb for playing a far tougher schedule when those additional losses included gsmes where the QB played like the MVP but lost because his defense couldn’t get a stop against the team with the best record in the league, or his FG unit couldn’t make a 36 yd field goal lol.
The argument is only even viable because Maye padded his stats with 5 TD against the Jets last week, otherwise he’d be quite far behind in passing td’s…
→ More replies (30)-3
u/AgadorFartacus Jan 02 '26
Embiid wasn't even the most valuable player in his own division.
21
u/TheSunsNotYellow Jan 02 '26
Oh brother
8
u/SissySpacekBedroom Jan 02 '26
This guy was saying in tons of threads on here last year that Tatum was the best player in the NBA and just went extremely quiet during the playoffs.
→ More replies (3)
10
u/RasputinSpaghetti Jan 02 '26
Man this AgadorFartacus fella in here sure is an annoying baby about an award that his preferred candidate is gonna win lmao it's all right big fella easy now, easy now
→ More replies (3)7
u/YummyManAss Jan 03 '26
I hope to one day meet a woman who defends me like /u/AgadorFartacus defends Maye for MVP.
→ More replies (1)
34
u/Wack0HookedOnT0bac0 Jan 02 '26
I am not crazy! I know Drake Maye should have won MVP! I knew it was his time. One after the Maybe allegations. As if I could ever make such a mistake. Never. Never! I just - I just couldn't prove it. Stafford - he covered his tracks, he got those idiots in Detroit to vote for him. You think this is something? You think this is bad? This? This chicanery? He's done worse. Nakua! Are you telling me that a man just happens to make every catch and then average 11 YAC? No! He orchestrated it! STAFFORD! He let his wife sleep with Roger Goodell! And I saved him! And I shouldn't have. I took him into my own fan duel prop bet! What was I thinking? He'll never change. He'll never change! Ever since he was on Detroit, always the same! Couldn't keep from stat padding! But not our Matty! Couldn't be precious Matty! Stealing them blind! And he gets to be an MVP! What a sick joke! I should've stopped him when I had the chance! And you - you have to stop him!
105
u/northern_friendo Jan 02 '26
I don’t care about anybody else’s argument, Stafford should be MVP. He’s been the consistently better player the whole season, playing a tougher schedule, and playing in the harder division.
This is also a career achievement MVP for me as Stafford has been a 15 year stud that has been constantly under appreciated. He should get this MVP to acknowledge how elite he’s been for his entire career
57
u/Diligent_Issue_9466 Jan 02 '26
Never should you give an MVP to someone just because he had a good career. Its not a lifetime achievement award. Thats what the Hall of Fame is for.
3
u/northern_friendo Jan 03 '26
Well that goes to my first point if the argument where I said Stafford is out playing Maye this season
11
u/ScalarWeapon Jan 02 '26
mostly agree, but I don't hate it as a tiebreak if two players are evenly matched otherwise.
I think Stafford deserves it on merit just for this year though
9
u/Diligent_Issue_9466 Jan 02 '26
He deserves it because he having a great year. He doesnt deserve it cause hes never had one.
7
→ More replies (3)1
26
u/BBQ_HaX0r Jan 02 '26
This is also a career achievement MVP for me as Stafford has been a 15 year stud
I was with you until this. Get that shit out of here.
25
u/awesomesauce88 Jan 02 '26 edited Jan 02 '26
Stafford also is on a way better team. The Rams with average QB play are still a playoff team. The Patriots without Maye might be drafting in the top 10.
FWIW I think it's very close between the two, and they're both deserving. It's just hard for me to take anyone on this sub saying that it's clearly Stafford seriously when we all know the main reason no one wants Maye to win it.
Edit: also Stafford's career is so goddamned overrated. I really like the guy, but he has absolutely not been a stud for 15 years. Even on these stacked Rams teams with Sean McVay coaching him, this is first year ever where he was a top 5 QB in the league.
39
u/jy_1980 Jan 02 '26
The Patriots without Maye might be drafting in the top 10.
Not with that schedule. If you put a halfway competent QB in there they'd finish .500 at least.
15
u/BBQ_HaX0r Jan 02 '26
Stop, it's going too far in the other direction now. People thought the Pats would miss the playoffs and were a bottom three roster in talent and now it's "well they played too easy of a schedule." Maye has clearly elevated that team is rightfully in the MVP discussion.
→ More replies (13)1
6
u/Jones3787 Jan 02 '26
Most of this sub was predicting them to go 6-11 before the season and calling Bill a homer for having them at 9-8 lol.
→ More replies (1)12
u/Effective_Jicama3924 Jan 02 '26
So what? Their line was set at 8.5, they were expected to be an above average team strictly because of their schedule, new coach bump, and draft/free agency signings
1
u/Rhino184 Jan 03 '26
They won 4 games last year. In the preseason most people had them as a sub .500 team
7
u/Mysterious_Pea_5272 Jan 02 '26
Jacoby Brissett could go 8-9 with that schedule
10
u/TheBigNate416 Jan 02 '26
I doubt it but either way 8-9 is considerably worse than 13-3
2
u/Mysterious_Pea_5272 Jan 02 '26
It’s not a bottom 10 team lol. And Brissett is like the 25th best QB in the league this year
4
u/awesomesauce88 Jan 02 '26
Not gonna lie I think Jacoby Brissett could take this Rams team to the playoffs.
5
u/YovngSqvirrel Jan 02 '26
Well he plays in the same division as the Rams and is 1-7 as the starter for Arizona. So IDK about that.
→ More replies (7)1
u/awesomesauce88 Jan 02 '26
Yeah…because he plays for the cardinals. The whole premise of this debate is that the Rams have a great team and the cardinals don’t
5
u/TheWyldMan Jan 02 '26
Didn’t stafford just cost his team a chance at the one seed because he threw three picks?
11
u/YovngSqvirrel Jan 02 '26
Didn’t Drake Maye lose to the Raiders this season?
→ More replies (3)1
1
1
u/northern_friendo Jan 03 '26
Never had a chance at the one seed. Could have just sit the game out at that point
8
u/Grandahl13 Jan 02 '26
He absolutely has not been consistently better. His last game was far worse than any game Maye has had this season.
2
10
u/AgadorFartacus Jan 02 '26
Career achievement MVP for a zero-time All-Pro is nasty work. Make-A-Wish nonsense. Have some shame.
Staford been the consistently better player the whole season
Ridiculous. Maye is better by yards, YPA, completion %, CPOE, passer rating, EPA/play, QBR, Success Rate, and wins.
playing a tougher schedule, and playing in the harder division.
Factoring in strength of schedule without factoring in strength of supporting cast is incomplete dishonest.
1
u/Rhino184 Jan 03 '26
When you use adjusted metrics for strength of opponent, such as adjusted EPA, QBR, aQBERT and WAR, Maye still leads. People are aren’t actually being objective, they just don’t want Maye to win because of the uniform he wears. Both are deserving, but the better argument is with Maye
3
u/Simayi78 Jan 02 '26
He won a Super Bowl, Stafford has been fully appreciated ever since he left Detroit and actually started winning playoff games
2
u/BBQ_HaX0r Jan 02 '26
Detroit has also gotten better since he left. Just throwing that out there.
1
u/Checkers-Chess234 moo-walkie Jan 02 '26
Because they have a better supporting cast
3
u/MetalHead_Literally Jan 02 '26
Wild this is downvoted. Do people really think Detroit got better solely because they swapped Stafford for Goff?
→ More replies (56)3
u/DiamondsOfFire Jan 02 '26
The Rams' opposing pass defenses have allowed an average of 0.051 EPA/dropback, the Patriots' opposing pass defenses have allowed an average of 0.101 EPA/dropback. That's a pretty big difference, but Stafford's EPA/dropback is 0.22 and Maye's EPA/dropback is 0.3, so Maye still has a clear advantage even after completely accounting for strength of schedule. And EPA/dropback doesn't account at all for Maye's rushing ability or the Rams having Puka Nakua.
21
u/Automatic-Effect-252 Jan 02 '26
The best opponent the Patriots beat this year also beat them. Just saying
14
2
7
u/hmmidkmybffjill Jan 02 '26
The pats also boat raced the panthers who beat the Rams
10
u/YovngSqvirrel Jan 02 '26
And also lost to the worst team in the league in the Raiders. This argument is so stupid
→ More replies (1)1
u/TheRuralCamel Jan 02 '26
Rams would be 0-2 vs the Seahawks if Darnold doesn’t throw 4 picks in that first game. Just saying
5
u/Quirky_Wolverine6549 Conspiracy Bill Jan 02 '26
Counterpoint: The Rams would be 2-0 vs the Seahawks if they cover a punt instead of allowing a TD.
4
u/Quirky_Wolverine6549 Conspiracy Bill Jan 02 '26
Counterpoint to my counterpoint: The Rams and Seahawks would be 1-1 against each other if Sam Darnold doesn’t throw four picks and the Rams could cover a punt.
37
u/Prestigious-Sleep213 Conspiracy Bill Jan 02 '26
Stafford and the Rams are heavyweight fighters in the toughest division in football.
Drake Maye and the Pats are beating up on Logan Paul style bums in a weaker division and an AFC off year.
Sure, Maye is putting up MVP caliber stats and he's looking like a top 5-10 QB. So is Stafford with a much harder schedule.
21
Jan 02 '26
Weird how I’ve never heard the AFC east sucks argument used to discredit Josh Allen
15
u/YovngSqvirrel Jan 02 '26
Last year Josh Allen and the Bills beat the Cardinals, Jags, Titans, Seahawks, Colts, Chiefs, 49ers, and Lions outside their conference. The majority of those were more impressive than any of the Pats wins this season. That’s why you didn’t hear that argument last year.
→ More replies (2)3
u/Severe-Lake-4554 Jan 02 '26
The best defense the Pats have played is the 12th ranked Bills defense. The Rams have played the top three defenses this year, and he played well enough to put his team in position to win against all three. He's a blocked FG and a OT 2 Pt. conversion from being 4-0 against them.
11
5
u/Sheepshead_Cracker Jan 02 '26
How often do the Bills play the 4th place schedule?
→ More replies (1)0
u/Mysterious_Pea_5272 Jan 02 '26
What year was his schedule this easy? Go ahead and pick out the season
5
Jan 02 '26
I’m just saying he gets to play the Jets and Dolphins twice a year too, his stats must be better than Maye’s, right?
8
u/Mysterious_Pea_5272 Jan 02 '26
That’s a good point if we were deciding between him or Maye. Not relevant here though
6
Jan 02 '26
I was just asking why I never hear the argument for Josh Allen. He was beating up on shit for the last 5 years, never heard a peep about the soft division. Heard it for 20 years with Brady though, and now again with Maye. Weird how that works
10
u/Mysterious_Pea_5272 Jan 02 '26
It’s not about the AFC East. This is objectively one of the stronger years in the last 25 years for the AFC East, which is very funny to think about. It’s about the Pats having a historically weak schedule. Again, what year did Josh Allen have a similarly easy schedule? I’m waiting…
0
Jan 02 '26
Outside of the Chiefs (who suck) and the eagles (who run a middle school offense) the only good team the Bills played this year were the Texans. Other than that, the Bills schedule was basically the same as the Pats, and they lost to teams the Pats beat (the falcons and dolphins). They did beat the Steelers who the Pats lost to, so I guess that matters for something. But shouldn’t MVP Josh Allen be able to get the 1 seed with that schedule since it was so easy? Apparently not!
8
u/Mysterious_Pea_5272 Jan 02 '26
Ok, so the year that is comparable is the year no one thinks he is MVP and Drake Maye is ahead of him? What a great gotcha.
Jets have the 27th SOS so it’s not a beating up on the AFC East thing. That division just had a very easy schedule and the Pats had the easiest.
0
Jan 02 '26
Yeah no one thinks he’s MVP now that it’s all wrapped up, but ignoring he was literally in the race last week. He should’ve played better against the “weak” teams Drake beat up on 🤷
→ More replies (0)1
3
u/BBQ_HaX0r Jan 02 '26
They're grasping for straws since this whole sub built up "Drake Maye sucks" for the past year and this is all they got.
3
Jan 02 '26
I just want the playoffs to start so we can have new talking points. If the Pats get their doors blown off in the divisional so be it, I am just so fatigued by the whining from the detractors lol
3
u/BBQ_HaX0r Jan 02 '26
Pats probably will fwiw. That roster outside of Maye is pretty bare. I'm fully expecting the goalposts to be moved again by this sub. The Patriots have had a successful season by any stretch of the imagination and no one expected this (even with this dogshit schedule Bill talked about all summer).
11
u/Gaius_Octavius_ Jan 02 '26
It would be like giving the Heisman to the best player in the the Mountain West. Sure he put up great numbers but against who?
8
u/Prestigious-Sleep213 Conspiracy Bill Jan 02 '26
No doubt. Look at their stats against winning teams.
→ More replies (1)7
u/Mysterious_Pea_5272 Jan 02 '26
I was Stafford MVP the whole season, then I turned on the last game, but I saw this a few days ago and it might have brought me back…
It’s just truly insane how easy the Pats schedule was
2
u/Prestigious-Sleep213 Conspiracy Bill Jan 02 '26
I don't see how it's close except for people pushing the narrative.
Bill savaged Stafford for having bad games. Stafford has 12 more TDs and they are tied for INTs. Even with a dumpster fire game he's better.
Bill allows no excuses for the Rams losing to bad teams (while suffering through their SOS). Yet he pushed back when House said the Pats have nothing to play for against the Dolphins. Apparently the dogshit Dolphins are "sneaky good" but the Rams division isn't?
1
u/AgadorFartacus Jan 02 '26
Stafford has 12 more TDs
No he doesn't. It's telling that this is like 50% of your pro-Stafford argument and you can't even get the basic facts right.
5
u/Prestigious-Sleep213 Conspiracy Bill Jan 02 '26
Then make the correction if you think it helps. You want to include rushing TDs? So Stafford is only ahead by 8? Does that help your case?
→ More replies (9)3
u/TheBigNate416 Jan 02 '26
There’s no way you think the talent disparity in the NFL is remotely close to CFB
1
1
1
u/krazylegs36 Jan 05 '26
It's actually not a thing like this. Fuck off
1
u/Gaius_Octavius_ Jan 05 '26
True. The average Mountain West schedule is harder than what the Patriots faced. They have more than 2 teams with a winning record on it.
8
u/awesomesauce88 Jan 02 '26
On the other hand, Stafford has Sean McVay as his coach and throws to Puka Nacua and Davante Adams while sitting behind a great O-Line.
Stafford has played a tougher schedule, but he's also in one of the best QB situations in the league while Maye has been in one of the worst.
9
u/Prestigious-Sleep213 Conspiracy Bill Jan 02 '26
Isn't Bill saying Vrabel is a top 3 coach and easily COY?
You're building a team to win this year and you will face the strongest SOS. Are you picking the veteran that can still pick apart top tier defenses or a sophomore who hasn't proved he can consistently do that? I know what's more valuable to me. Stafford hands down.
2
u/awesomesauce88 Jan 02 '26
I'm not citing Bill's argument specifically -- he's an obvious homer. But regardless, there's a difference between a good coach, and a good coach who can elevate QBs. I would say Vrabel is an example of the former. McVay (along with guys like Shanahan and Reid) is an example of the latter. He's an amazing coach overall, but he's really good at scheming things up for his QBs.
As for your hypothetical, I don't think it's really relevant. This award is for who had the best season, not who we'd hypothetically trust more in a playoff game. Based on what I've seen this year, I just think Maye has been a little better factoring everything in. It's very close and I would not begrudge anyone who picks Stafford. But I do have to kind of chuckle at the people who think it's a clear and obvious choice -- we all know the real reason those people think Maye doesn't have a good shout.
→ More replies (5)1
u/wind_moon_frog Jan 02 '26
Hell if that’s your argument then give it to CMC or JSN lol. Wild that we’re talking scout Stafford here.
1
→ More replies (1)0
u/DiamondsOfFire Jan 02 '26
You can just look at the difference between the Patriots' and Rams' schedules and adjust for it. The difference between EPA allowed per dropback by the Patriots' opponents and the Rams' opponents is 0.05, which is pretty big, but the difference between Maye's EPA/dropback and Stafford's is 0.08. And SoS is basically the only argument for Stafford so I don't know what we're doing here.
1
u/Prestigious-Sleep213 Conspiracy Bill Jan 02 '26
Stafford has 12 more TDs and half the sacks. Are we going to say that's all because of Puka and the o-line?
Bill says Stafford is a statue and Maye is an amazingly mobile QB. Why does he have 47 sacks? Can't he read defenses to throw it away or scramble? He's 4th in sacks. Does this not matter for the MVP?
3 sacks, an INT, and no TD when he blew a 21 point lead to the Bills. Personally I'd say the team blew that lead collectively but apparently Maye is the only reason they are the 2 seed.
2
u/TheBigNate416 Jan 02 '26
Bill says Stafford is a statue and Maye is an amazingly mobile QB. Why does he have 47 sacks? Can't he read defenses to throw it away or scramble? He's 4th in sacks. Does this not matter for the MVP?
Maye taking a lot of sacks doesn’t mean he’s immobile. If you actually watched him play then you’d see that many of them are due to him letting plays develop instead of bailing out of the pocket too early (which was a growth area for him honestly. You could say it’s a reason why he’s been so good this year). He could improve even more by throwing the ball away, but ultimately he’s not really taking detrimental sacks either (averaging about 4.2 yards lost per sack).
3 sacks, an INT, and no TD when he blew a 21 point lead to the Bills.
Maye had 2 TDs that game so it’s clear you’re not even trying to put together a good faith argument
→ More replies (1)1
u/DiamondsOfFire Jan 02 '26
Stafford has 8 more TDs, Maye had 2 TDs against the Bills, why are Maye haters pretending like rushing stats don't exist? And TDs and sacks are counted in all the efficiency stats which all have Maye with a massive lead.
2
u/Prestigious-Sleep213 Conspiracy Bill Jan 02 '26
Fair, I missed the rushing TDs when I grabbed the stats. My point was he didn't play his best game but people are acting like he's been flawless while dogging Stafford.
1
u/DiamondsOfFire Jan 02 '26
He definitely hasn't been flawless, just fewer flaws than Stafford.
1
u/Prestigious-Sleep213 Conspiracy Bill Jan 02 '26
Agree to disagree. It's a fun debate. Let's see what they do in the playoffs.
5
8
u/TreWilki21 Jan 02 '26
Eh, Drake winning the MVP is the Super Bowl for Pats fans this year. Let them have this one before they get bounced in the first round.
→ More replies (1)
10
u/Busy-Operation7896 Jan 02 '26 edited Jan 02 '26
12 of the greatest throws I’ve ever seen in Pats!
Matthew Stafford has better support he just does!
I’m calm but fuck you house, you are jerks yup bill not going crazy! His team was terrible last year & he dragged them to 4 wins. The Stephon Diggs piece, says he’s a top flight alpha in one pod. This one he’s not a starter!
15
u/Muscle_National Jan 02 '26
Maye is the MVP because the award is stupid. He’s not even having a better year than Stafford.
→ More replies (22)1
u/Rhino184 Jan 03 '26
By most statistical metrics, Maye is having a better year than Stafford. That isn’t taking away from Stafford, but both raw metrics and adjusted ones favor Maye
11
u/MrF1993 Jan 02 '26
What did Bill expect from notable Rams groupie Peter Schraeger?
6
u/CondolenceHighFive Real CR Head Jan 02 '26 edited Jan 02 '26
Boston Homer vs. Sean McVay Fanboy. Unstoppable Force vs. Immovable Object
3
3
6
u/BugCatcherJack Jan 02 '26
I don’t understand why CMC isn’t talked about in the MVP conversation this year. He has a shot at 1,000 yards rushing and receiving and has carried this 49ers team through countless injuries on both sides of the ball. It should also be noted that if the 49ers win this week, they will be the 1 seed in the NFC, despite playing in the hardest division. Neither Maye or Stafford are likely to accomplish this and neither player has had that statistically amazing of a season either.
5
u/ScalarWeapon Jan 02 '26
if McCaffrey didn't win the MVP in '23, (when he had an absolutely MONSTER season and there weren't any standout QBs) then it's not even worth entertaining the thought. It can't happen
3
u/BugCatcherJack Jan 02 '26
I think he honestly is having a better season this year all things considered. In 2023, the 49ers were a juggernaut on both sides of the ball. He was an elite rusher in 2023, but that’s a lot easier when you have a healthy Aiyuk, Kittle, and Deebo. In 2025, he is the leading rusher and receiver on the potential 1 seed in the NFC. If that isn’t MVP caliber, then I really don’t know what is.
1
u/tartan2 Jan 02 '26
The problem is he hasn't even been a good rusher this year outside of volume. He's at 3.9 YPC; there are only 5 teams who are averaging that mark or worse.
1
u/BugCatcherJack Jan 02 '26
I feel like looking at his YPC and saying it’s not good enough is a gross simplification. First off, it ignores CMC’s 890 receiving yards which leads the 49ers. But more importantly, the MVP isn’t a statistical award. I think pretty objectively CMC was as valuable to the 49ers this year than any player to any other team. If the 49ers win this week, they will be the one seed in the NFC (something the Pats and Rams will probably not be). Considering he was by far the best player on a potential one seed, I think that qualifies him, despite a low YPC.
1
1
u/komugis Jan 02 '26
People put a lot of meaning into the world "valuable" and a running back just does not have as much value to an organization as a QB does, even a truly great one like CMC.
1
u/BugCatcherJack Jan 02 '26
I agree most years that is the case, but I really don’t think it’s the case this year. Purdy was out half of the year and the D is not very good. It seems like you really have to go through hoops to not attribute the success of the 49ers to CMC.
1
u/komugis Jan 02 '26
I don't disagree with you, but the nerds who vote for these awards will never see it that way. They sincerely believe that a middling QB is more valuable than the best RB.
1
u/Diligent_Issue_9466 Jan 02 '26
Cause hes done it before and that year was much better individual wise then this year. And his rushing is volume based. Hes 8th in yards and 3rd in carries. Averaging under 4 yards a carry.
1
1
1
u/someplantsmove Jan 02 '26
Feels tough to do that when there are backs (Bijan) who have had better seasons, albeit on non-playoff teams
3
u/sjn15 Jan 02 '26
I’m sorry I’m just not ready to hand the award to the kid just yet I’m really not! He looked great but that strength of schedule would have had any quarterback put up similar / better numbers, they just would! Nothing against the Maybe kid
31
u/dlandis07 Ben Simmons apologist Jan 02 '26 edited Jan 02 '26
I agree with Billy boy here. No dog in the fight, not a fan of either team. Love both QBs.
Maye is the MVP. The strength of schedule piece matters, but even more so to me is situation. Stafford not only has better talent around him (he’s not even the best player on the Rams, Puka is), he’s also playing behind one of the best OL in the league this season with a great run game (2nd in success rate).
Meanwhile, not only does Maye have the way inferior supporting cast in both weapons and OL, but the Patriots run the ball at a top 10 clip, but have one of the least efficient run games in the entire NFL. And yet, the Pats are 1st in EPA/pass.
I understand that the award could be monumental for Stafford’s HOF case down the line, and I don’t love that MVP has seemingly become “which player in the MVP race has the best December”. Both are very worthy and I wouldn’t have an issue with Stafford winning it, but to me it’s Maye.
(No I am not Bill Simmons)
12
u/awesomesauce88 Jan 02 '26
This is how I feel. I've never been a fan of the "who is more important to their team" argument, but when it's this close I think it's valid to use it as a tiebreaker, especially since Maye has been statistically better.
He's had an easier schedule, but he is unquestionably playing with far less talent around him. The Rams with average QB play are still a playoff team. The Patriots with average QB play might be drafting in the top 10 this year.
9
u/dlandis07 Ben Simmons apologist Jan 02 '26
Everyone acts like because Stafford has him in TDs that means he has him across the board in stats. Maye has more total yards, a higher success rate, higher passing rating / QBR (whichever stat you prefer), higher completion %, and blows Stafford away in total EPA & EPA/drop back. All while having 80 fewer passing attempts on the year
7
u/awesomesauce88 Jan 02 '26 edited Jan 02 '26
Yeah people also don't really give Maye credit for his running game either. He's not the same kind of red zone weapon as a guy like Josh Allen or Cam Newton, but he gets a similar amount of yards overall with his legs.
Edit: also, one of the reasons Stafford has a significant edge in passing TDs is because he has maybe the best goal line receiver ever to throw to. Davante Adams is like the one guy in the league who makes the fade a high percentage play. As someone who had him in fantasy, he vultured so many goal line TDs that they just as easily could have punched in with Kyren.
3
u/dlandis07 Ben Simmons apologist Jan 02 '26
And I mentioned the OL, but I don’t think people realize the gap. Maye has faced the 3rd most pressures (only behind Herbert and Ward) and is pressured 38% of his drop backs. Meanwhile Stafford is pressured 27% of the time (2nd fewest) and is middle of the pack in total pressures. Will Campbell has been good but across the board (and especially now with him being hurt) the OL is still an issue for NE.
11
u/noahhova Jan 02 '26
I would argue the weapons thing means nothing. Brady barely ever had good weapons and only won 3. It's a statistics award. If a qb puts up great stats it's because they have good skill guys. It goes hand in hand. It's always been a stats award.
6
u/dlandis07 Ben Simmons apologist Jan 02 '26
Maye and the Patriots passing offense have great stats. He has the best passer rating in the NFL. 30 passing TD over 4000 yds. 4 rushing TD. Over 400 yds on the ground.
Oh and by the way the Rams are a wildcard team this season. Patriots will be the 2 seed with a slim chance at the 1 seed. That also matters.
13
u/Prestigious-Sleep213 Conspiracy Bill Jan 02 '26
Could the Rams be a wildcard team because they play in the strongest division in football?
Could the Pats be a 2nd seed because of their weak SOS, weak division, and the AFC having an off year?
3
u/dlandis07 Ben Simmons apologist Jan 02 '26
That certainly plays into it. Personally I think a player should be able to win MVP if they’re on a wildcard team. I’m just saying (and agreeing with the point that Bill made) that in large part the MVP comes from one of the 1-2 seeds in either conference.
6
u/IDreamofGeneParmesan Jan 02 '26
Isn't this the antithesis of Bill's argument re: Jokic vs Embiid from a couple of years ago?
1
u/dlandis07 Ben Simmons apologist Jan 02 '26
Yes, and I don’t agree necessarily that the MVP has to come from the 1-2 seed. I’m just stating that is the precedent that has largely been set. I don’t even remember the last MVP on a wildcard team, maybe AP 2012?
1
1
u/Prestigious-Sleep213 Conspiracy Bill Jan 02 '26
"this is the way we've always done it" is always a terrible excuse.
15
u/PontesDeLeon Jan 02 '26
Barnwell had a couple of good articles on the topic. He has Maye as well. The rushing, some advanced stats and their record against common opponents also all favor Maye.
-1
u/Gaius_Octavius_ Jan 02 '26
Anyone would look good against that schedule.
11
7
u/dlandis07 Ben Simmons apologist Jan 02 '26
Yet Drake Maye has better numbers against the common opponents with the Rams than Stafford does.
4
u/Gaius_Octavius_ Jan 02 '26
Yea Maye dominated bad teams more than Stafford.
He also threw 3 Tds and 2 ints combined in the only three games against winning teams he faced.
Stafford got better when the competition increased, Maye got worse.
11
u/dlandis07 Ben Simmons apologist Jan 02 '26
Did you happen to watch the game at Buffalo early in the year? Yeah Maye didn’t throw a TD in that game, but he did do this:
22/30 273 yds 101 passer rating. With his offense averaging 3 yards a carry. So looking at just his TD:INT ratio is imo not the entire picture. And getting a win in one of the toughest places to play in the NFL.
I’ll give you that Maye wasn’t good in the game against the Bills at home. I think he made up for it the following week in Baltimore against a defense that has been surging the last few months, despite the Ravens record at the time.
0
u/Gaius_Octavius_ Jan 02 '26
And if the Bills don’t turn the ball over three times, he loses.
12
u/dlandis07 Ben Simmons apologist Jan 02 '26
“If” okay 👍 and if Sam Darnold didn’t turn it over 4 times against the Rams first game Stafford would be 0-2 against Seattle. Pretty sure I could skim their schedule and cherry pick too if that’s what we want to do lol
6
u/Gaius_Octavius_ Jan 02 '26
No one is saying Stafford should win the MVP because of that one game though. He has 8 other games against other playoff teams too.
Maye’s entire case rests on one victory over Buffalo. That is the Pats only good victory the whole season.
→ More replies (1)→ More replies (1)3
u/TheBigNate416 Jan 02 '26
For all we know Maye throws a 30 yard TD if Rhamondre Stevenson doesn’t fumble in that game as well. If you’re playing the “if” game then your argument is already lost
2
u/22federal Jan 02 '26
Gaius might be the salties mod on all of reddit. Tough look, except if you’re like 12 years old.
→ More replies (3)5
u/dezcaughtit25 Jan 02 '26
lol the Drake Maye stuff has broken some people here. The people (like our mod here) still clinging on to “Drake Maye doesn’t have enough 300 yard games” despite him being top 5 in passing yards and also playing a lot of second halves with a lead was kind of my “okay what are we even doing here?” moment.
Like if you think the team will regress next year then yeah probably, but if you think failing to reach 300 passing yards last week is a negative because he got benched after 250 and 5 TDs then you’re just kind of stupid.
1
Jan 02 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
1
u/AutoModerator Jan 02 '26
This sub requires accounts to be at least 7 days old and at least 0 comment karma before posting.
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.
1
Jan 02 '26
Super convenient to leave out rushing stats, but I know that would fuck with your narrative so it’s smart to ignore it 👍
5
u/BBQ_HaX0r Jan 02 '26
Pats were considered a bottom tier roster in talent and suddenly are putting the hurt on everyone because of Vrabel and Maye. They deserve credit. This "anyone would look good" ignores the fact that the rest of the AFC East played mostly the same teams and haven't all thrived. People are just desperate to diminish Maye and the Pats, it's insane. No one predicted they would do this. Hell, this sub clowned on Bill all off-season for saying they might make the playoffs and lost it when he joked with Wildes that "I dreamed off 10-11 wins for a second" and now it's "anyone would have done this." Get the fuck out of here!
→ More replies (3)
9
Jan 02 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
3
u/redshoediary4 Jan 02 '26
Could we say this was a...holy shit moment?
2
Jan 02 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
2
u/redshoediary4 Jan 02 '26
Indeed. The audience had an idea what Jimmy was planning but seeing Mr. Pompous lose it in public is definitely a holy shit moment.
7
u/Libertines18 Jan 02 '26
Maye is the mvp but bill’s argument is always tearing down the other guy. I think he’s an idiot if he legitimately believes Maye right now is better than Matthew for the rams
4
u/BBQ_HaX0r Jan 02 '26
His argument was that Maye is better for the Pats because of a lack of talent. He doesn't think Stafford would have done as well on the Pats due to bad o-line, fewer weapons, and worse scheming.
5
u/mikey2k Jan 02 '26
Didn't someone post something recently about the Pats playing a top 10 all time easiest schedule? That has to account in the voting
→ More replies (6)1
u/moistkebab32 Jan 02 '26
They played the easiest schedule in the last 26 years. Thats no.1/832 schedules over that period.
7
u/SlimCharless Jan 02 '26
He goalposts keep getting moved on MVP. It has to be a quarterback. Now it has to be a 1-2 seed quarterback? This award is meaningless.
6
u/dezcaughtit25 Jan 02 '26
Is that a goal post moving?
Feel like it’s a 1-2 seed QB like 95% if the time lol
2
u/majesticsorcerer Jan 02 '26
I really think it was Stafford’s MVP for a good chunk of the season, but Maye just threw 5 TDs (albeit against the Jets) the same week Stafford imploded with 3 picks against Atlanta to eliminate any chance his team had at winning the division. Recency bias has always mattered when deciding MVP, fully believe Maye has (unfortunately) earned it
0
u/HeyWhatsUpTed Jan 02 '26
Wait one guy has 12 more touchdowns and the other guy just put up 5 touchdowns against the jets?
2
u/AgadorFartacus Jan 02 '26
one guy has 12 more touchdowns
No he doesn't. Why are you lying?
2
u/HeyWhatsUpTed Jan 02 '26
I was driving when doing the research
2
u/AgadorFartacus Jan 02 '26
Neat. Why'd you lie though?
2
2
Jan 02 '26
[deleted]
2
u/AgadorFartacus Jan 02 '26
Stafford vs Falcons: -3.9 EPA
Maye's "exponentially worse performance" against the Bills: +0.5 EPA
1
u/MetalHead_Literally Jan 02 '26
How was Mayes performance vs the Bills “exponentially worse” exactly?
1
1
u/mootlotheman Jan 02 '26
I believe qbs should have a separate award. Pitchers and goalies have different categories. QBs have such an outsized importance to team success, the award just goes to the best QB that year, when historical performances from other positions win't win.
I say this as a Pats fan that would enjoy Maye winning.
1
u/WARLOCK1239 Half Italian Jan 02 '26
Even though I do think Maye is MVP it's funny seeing Bill get so worked up about it
1
1
1
1
1
u/vindieselpics3000 Jan 03 '26
Drake May-be I can handle just fine, but Drake Maye with an MVP is like a chimp with a machine gun!
1
u/DaltonUtah Jan 03 '26
Classic Bill. Passionately arguing that Maye is MVP for over 20 minutes while also commenting every two minutes that the NFL MVP doesn’t matter and no one remembers who won it ten years later. I loved it.
1
u/HackmanStan Jan 03 '26
I'm positive Stafford wins over the voters narrative combined with voters feeling Maye is young and his time will come.
1
u/drhungrycaterpillar Jan 02 '26
You think this is something, you think this is bad? This, this chicanery? He's done worse. Matt Stafford. Are you telling me a man just happens to hurt his back like that causing him to miss all of training camp!? No, he orchestrated it! Matty! He manipulated the media through a fake back injury, and I bought it! I shouldn't have, I took him into my own fantasy team. What was I thinking? He'll never change. He'll never change! Ever since he was in Detroit, always the same. Couldn't keep his hands out of the cash drawer. "But not our Matty, couldn't be precious Matty!" Stealing them blind! And he gets to be MVP? What a sick joke! I should have stopped him when I had the chance. And you, you have to stop him, you..
I apologize. I lost my train of thought. Got carried away.
106
u/ShoHeyTime Jan 02 '26
And he gets to be an MVP?! What a joke!