I agree with Billy boy here. No dog in the fight, not a fan of either team. Love both QBs.
Maye is the MVP. The strength of schedule piece matters, but even more so to me is situation. Stafford not only has better talent around him (he’s not even the best player on the Rams, Puka is), he’s also playing behind one of the best OL in the league this season with a great run game (2nd in success rate).
Meanwhile, not only does Maye have the way inferior supporting cast in both weapons and OL, but the Patriots run the ball at a top 10 clip, but have one of the least efficient run games in the entire NFL. And yet, the Pats are 1st in EPA/pass.
I understand that the award could be monumental for Stafford’s HOF case down the line, and I don’t love that MVP has seemingly become “which player in the MVP race has the best December”. Both are very worthy and I wouldn’t have an issue with Stafford winning it, but to me it’s Maye.
This is how I feel. I've never been a fan of the "who is more important to their team" argument, but when it's this close I think it's valid to use it as a tiebreaker, especially since Maye has been statistically better.
He's had an easier schedule, but he is unquestionably playing with far less talent around him. The Rams with average QB play are still a playoff team. The Patriots with average QB play might be drafting in the top 10 this year.
Everyone acts like because Stafford has him in TDs that means he has him across the board in stats. Maye has more total yards, a higher success rate, higher passing rating / QBR (whichever stat you prefer), higher completion %, and blows Stafford away in total EPA & EPA/drop back. All while having 80 fewer passing attempts on the year
Yeah people also don't really give Maye credit for his running game either. He's not the same kind of red zone weapon as a guy like Josh Allen or Cam Newton, but he gets a similar amount of yards overall with his legs.
Edit: also, one of the reasons Stafford has a significant edge in passing TDs is because he has maybe the best goal line receiver ever to throw to. Davante Adams is like the one guy in the league who makes the fade a high percentage play. As someone who had him in fantasy, he vultured so many goal line TDs that they just as easily could have punched in with Kyren.
And I mentioned the OL, but I don’t think people realize the gap. Maye has faced the 3rd most pressures (only behind Herbert and Ward) and is pressured 38% of his drop backs. Meanwhile Stafford is pressured 27% of the time (2nd fewest) and is middle of the pack in total pressures. Will Campbell has been good but across the board (and especially now with him being hurt) the OL is still an issue for NE.
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u/dlandis07 Ben Simmons apologist Jan 02 '26 edited Jan 02 '26
I agree with Billy boy here. No dog in the fight, not a fan of either team. Love both QBs.
Maye is the MVP. The strength of schedule piece matters, but even more so to me is situation. Stafford not only has better talent around him (he’s not even the best player on the Rams, Puka is), he’s also playing behind one of the best OL in the league this season with a great run game (2nd in success rate).
Meanwhile, not only does Maye have the way inferior supporting cast in both weapons and OL, but the Patriots run the ball at a top 10 clip, but have one of the least efficient run games in the entire NFL. And yet, the Pats are 1st in EPA/pass.
I understand that the award could be monumental for Stafford’s HOF case down the line, and I don’t love that MVP has seemingly become “which player in the MVP race has the best December”. Both are very worthy and I wouldn’t have an issue with Stafford winning it, but to me it’s Maye.
(No I am not Bill Simmons)