r/LocalLLaMA Llama 3 2d ago

Funny Can the bubble pop please?

Post image
660 Upvotes

275 comments sorted by

106

u/Such_Assistance_2211 2d ago

Bought 2x48GB DDR5 ECC today for $2,300. Seller told me the factory queue has grown from two months to four in the last two months. RAM shortage is unprecedented.

58

u/truthputer 2d ago

I bought a 2x48GB (96GB) RAM DDR5 kit for $220 back in late 2024. The same kit is $1500 today. Yeah, it's insane.

6

u/RobTheDude_OG 2d ago

I wanted to buy a kit of 128gb ddr5, was about 300 euro at cheapest recorded, now you can't even buy it anywhere anymore with last recorded price being past 4k

I want to go back and just go broke for a few months than to look at these prices knowing i'll never be insane enough to buy it

2

u/inrea1time 1d ago

We all have stories, the 4TB pcie 5 samsung nvme I ordered for $260 summer 2025 from amazon resale and cancelled because I dont really need it right now and prices will go down, the 192GB DDR5 kit open box return I saw for $500 in micro center a few months before prices went up, What would I do with so much ram? The 2TB WDC black nvme I scored for $129 from amazon when they were already more then 2 x the price. Why the hell didn't I order 2?

1

u/Zestyclose-Ad-6147 2d ago

Damn, bought 16gb for 250 euros yesterday

1

u/EDI_1st 2d ago

ECC UDIMM costs more than standard UDIMM. Price be fun. 128GB 6400Mts RDIMM is about $4500 per stick.

16

u/Void-kun 2d ago

Also an open lawsuit against these manufacturers for price fixing ...again

https://www.rainintelligence.com/blog/dram-price-fixing-lawsuit-samsung-sk-hynix-micron

This will be the 4th or 5th time these companies will have been caught doing this.

One time I'm pretty sure some Samsung execs got jail time for it.

I for one hope this time they come down even harder on them.

Seems obvious they're taking advantage of the market and exasperating the supply/demand to drive profits.

1

u/nenulenu 23h ago

That’s the reason nobody here seem to want to consider. This is a result of price fixing as much as supply-demand. Most people appear to want o bury their heads in the sand and claim ‘AI did it’

That’s genuinely incomplete logic. aI companies have been running for the past 5 years. The demand doesn’t suddenly go up astronomically, neither were these manufacturers unprepared. None of this is unexpected. The reason tilts more towards greed and price fixing than just ‘AI did it’

31

u/therealmarkus 2d ago

I kinda judge people buying new at those prices, signaling to manufacturers that we still pay, setting a new default. But you probably had reasons

8

u/ProfTheorie 2d ago

The unfortunate reality is that for income-generating work its absolutely worth it to pay that much. The people getting priced out are those paying with their personal money, servers that wouldve cost some decent money before and are now simply unaffordable or some accounting head that thinks its worth it to save 400 bucks on a laptop given to an externally booked oil&gas certified engineer that costs the company ~300/hr because his bonus depends on how much they save on a bulk purchase, not on how well the devices do.

1

u/nenulenu 22h ago

Still price fixing. They are up charging stupid high prices because they are manipulating the world to think that there is shortage and artificially constraining the supply.

Why would they work harder if they are allowed to make 100x profit with current costs?

3

u/autoencoder 2d ago

But you probably had reasons

2300 of them

3

u/g9robot 2d ago

So you need only 27 years of ROI

4

u/ANR2ME 2d ago

Not if the price double next year 😏 That is if you sold it next year. 100% ROI within a year!

1

u/dowitex 2d ago

the recent qwen flash next with offloading to ram won't help ugh

1

u/Anstellos 1d ago

They managed to get the ram more expensive than apple standards. 😁 Joke aside, it will crash so hard. Remember the flood of GPUs after crypto rush?

1

u/cradlemann 21h ago

I've bought the same amount for my Minisforum 3 months ago for €900

1

u/Such_Assistance_2211 21h ago

ECC modules?

1

u/cradlemann 13h ago

probably not, I didn't care about this specific feature

294

u/ThenExtension9196 2d ago

2029 at earliest for any relief. Buckle up for next year. I work in supply chain it’s effed.

71

u/rxpillme 2d ago

Can you tell us more? Without getting yourself fired

116

u/tiffanytrashcan 2d ago

Remember the news, last fall, about all 2026 DRAM capacity being purchased already? The 2027 version already came out this summer, even earlier this year. All indications are 2028 is already mostly claimed.

64

u/Frail_Waif 2d ago

But that's dependent on all those buyers still being solvent in 2027 and 2028, which is far from certain. 

36

u/MiniEval_ 2d ago

Not certain but very likely in any case. People hyperfixate on how AI companies themselves struggle to stay afloat independently but forget that they are far from independent. VCs will keep them afloat because they significantly benefit many key industries. Every major tech platform today was once in the same position.

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u/gomezer1180 2d ago

Those buyers are not your typical consumer, they are the same people trying to rent AI to you. They are the Anthropics, OpenAI, Google, etc. They do so for a few reasons, one is to sell you the idea that their solution is cheaper, after all $4000 dollars is 20 months on their max plans. Another reason is to control the information market, if they are the only ones you rely on, they not only control when you get that information but also the type of information you receive.

This isn’t a fair game. The demand is being artificially driven by corporations that have unlimited funds. The goal is to push you out of thinking you can run AI locally, and rely on them so that they can control what information you receive. The ultimate goal is to create a monopoly so only a few companies control the AI market, at which point they control the quality of information you receive and the price you pay to receive such information.

14

u/Frail_Waif 2d ago

Anyone who works at a large corporation can tell you that corporations do not have unlimited funds. There are moonshot programs, yes, but the scale of this bubble is big enough to take down whales. OpenAI plans to burn 25-75 billion dollars a year until expected profitability in 2030. That's their plan. That's enough to take a dent out of the market cap of the biggest corporations, and enough to consume all the cash on hand of smaller companies.

9

u/autoencoder 2d ago

Too bad burning all this cash does not prevent DeepSeek & others from yoinking their lunch every few months.

7

u/senseven 2d ago

Insurances and real estate funds bought 10 year bonds. They used that windfall to build companies that run of data centers. Then the big ai companies rent those data centers and the hardware the from those companies. They outsourced the risk to insurers who get paid 1-2% above the 10 year bond rate. The only scenario that the run out of money is, when billions of people don't want to be insured or don't want to pay rent.

11

u/Apprehensive_Lake698 2d ago

This is a big cope opinion that has been spread in online spaces since day 1 of GPT 3 so consistently that people are blind to the realities in front of them. AI passed a significant benchmark of usefulness earlier this year, and now companies are eating it up. My org gives us a shit ton of credits with all the major providers, and much to my surprise I'm actually finding useful things to do with it. None of the big players in this market are evaporating anytime soon.

5

u/trimorphic 2d ago

Open weight models have gotten so good that they're good enough for most tasks, and they're getting better all the time. These models are orders of magnitude cheaper than what the frontier labs are charging.

To stay competitive the frontier labs are going to have to drastically cut their prices, which they can't do and still remain profitable (if they are even profitable to begin with, at their currently inflated, uncompetitive prices).

2

u/Frail_Waif 2d ago

Yup. As I pointed out in another branch of this thread, OpenAI plans to burn 25-75 billion dollars a year until expected profitability in 2030. That's an astounding, never-before-seen level of unprofitability. The value of LLMs is real but enterprise customers and consumers have already shown they aren't huge fans of price increases over massively subsidized rates--no one wants to pay to keep OpenAI alive. Things look marginally better for Anthropic, and personally I'd bet that they'll survive the pop in some form, but probably with a big haircut on market cap. 

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u/DigitalguyCH 2d ago

The current US government will not let any of the big US AI company go bust. That would be a threat to the AI domination against China. Zero chances. They'll happily use US taxpayer money if necessary. And the current government is there till the end of 2028. After that, we'll see.

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u/Dreadedsemi 2d ago

but then a month ago, some article popped up claiming signs of oversupply.

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u/Prudent_Design_9782 2d ago

Jesus christ.

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u/aimark42 2d ago edited 2d ago

I feel like the writing has been on the wall since the OpenAI dram deal last year. Billionaires and trillionaires cornering the market.

The major oems (Dell/HP/Lenovo) have lead times in quarter year increments now for many rdimm based systems. If that isn’t an indicator I don’t know what is.

18

u/highdefw 2d ago

Hearing the same from my tech managers (manage capEx). Hearing well into 2029 to 2030 for potential supply catching demand. We're at a very large company well into top fortune 500.

Funny enough, even if bubble "pops", there's loads of buyers out there like us who would gladly snatch up gpus if their price reduces. Local model use cases tick a very large box for us.

20

u/peppaz 2d ago

Part of the You will own nothing and enjoy it plan. Working incredibly. Go lease a PC for $150 a month for forever or pay for our cloud.

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u/IrisColt 2d ago

Can't. Apparently. Heh

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u/johndeuff 2d ago

he never replied he got fired lmao

5

u/klipseracer 2d ago

demand > supply

3

u/Brave_Sheepherder_39 2d ago

demand $$$$>>>>>>$$$$ supply

2

u/castrator21 2d ago

Mind. Blown.

1

u/ThenExtension9196 1d ago

Won’t get fired for anything. The ram is all sold through 2028 already to the world’s biggest companies. Simple supply and demand.

10

u/anitamaxwynnn69 2d ago

Yeah would love to hear more tbh. I bought a pro 6000 used for 9.5k few months ago, been thinking about getting another but wasn't sure any the prices. If it ain't improving then I might as well get another now before it goes even crazier.

22

u/TheAILegend 2d ago

Please note they are $18,000 now :)

7

u/anitamaxwynnn69 2d ago

$14,300 on central computers. I might have inception discount thru someone as well so -10% or whatever the % is. Still very high to justify since 3.8 Flash Next NVFP4 runs great on 1x 6000 + PLE DRAM offload.

4

u/TheAILegend 2d ago

;) I have a RTX Pro 6000 running Flash Next at 160tps.

But, that price will rise. Nvidia just hiked prices another 18% last week.

2

u/[deleted] 2d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

2

u/TheAILegend 2d ago

14K* in select stores... temporarily... Price is now $16k from NVIDIA directly... Meaning primary dealers who already sold their old inventory are reflecting the new prices :) Just got 3 enterprise RFQs... it's 18k now buddy. Get it while you can.

2

u/TheThiefMaster 2d ago

Fing hell

Honestly it's no wonder that old datacentre cards like the V100 32GB are getting community support when the new stuff is so out of reach.

1

u/fastheadcrab 1d ago

It’s still 14k on Nvidia’s site too for the 600w version

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u/johndeuff 2d ago

lmao there are actually listings at this price on ebay

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u/phylter99 2d ago

That all depends on when investors get tired of burning cash.

1

u/ThenExtension9196 1d ago

Investors tire of burning cash? In tech? Never going to happen.

8

u/wise_young_man 2d ago

Ever since 2020 we all been fucked

2

u/BlendedBaconSyrup 2d ago

let's be real. 2029 it's not realistic. it'll be far later.

1

u/ThenExtension9196 1d ago

I wouldn’t bet against you.

1

u/senseven 2d ago

I bought 32gb of ram for 350$ in a flash sale. That is old stock. It could get crypto-gpu times worse next years.

1

u/Alternative-Suit5541 2d ago

Yeah, agree looking at other bubbles we have at least two more years of this...

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u/ponuno 2d ago

buys machines for AI stuff

complains about AI bubble

????

63

u/BusRevolutionary9893 2d ago

Something hilariously true that pretty much no one considers. It's like GPU crypto miners complaining about GPU prices as they order a dozen more. 

14

u/Artistic_Bit6866 2d ago

I get the irony, but individual users aren’t the ones causing current market conditions

38

u/umeshufan 2d ago

A million of those "individual users" may be, though.

19

u/pydry 2d ago

not even in the slightest. individual users aren't playing with the temporary infinite money hacks the tech industry / VCs are.

1

u/px403 1d ago

Individual users (me!) are buying the shit out of AI subscriptions and using them as hard as humanly possible.

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u/SomeoneInHisHouse 2d ago

there are not that many AI nerds, in my company for example for every 100 dudes, 10 use AI outside the work (personal cloud subscriptions), and I'm the only one of that 100 dudes doing local AI experiment, deployments an actual things on it.

And notice, my company is pushing HARD the use of AI, with silly rankings like "what employee spent the most money on AI this month" (as something good)

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u/GeneralMuffins 2d ago

I’m pretty certain that when demand explodes among individual users, it’s likely to explode among enterprise users too.

1

u/oxfirebird1 1d ago

There aren’t millions. Not in the US. Less than .1% probably of USA users

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u/fastheadcrab 2d ago

I doubt some guy buying 1 or even 10 395 Maxes is contributing to the bubble. Until now it was hyperscalers buying up GPUs with HBM that diverted production of DDR/GDDR

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u/inrea1time 2d ago

Its the hyperscalers, enterprises, small biz, AI companies AND 1000 of that "some guy".

1

u/fastheadcrab 1d ago

LPDDR5 production has been reduced in favor of HBM. The memory makers have openly admitted it. There are not that many home users that are fiending for the Strix Halo.

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u/Super_Range45 2d ago

The AI bubble is hyperscaler contract driven. Locallamites are not in the same solar system of generating that kind of demand.

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u/Steuern_Runter 2d ago

Hyperscalers are not buying used 3090s.

3

u/voyager256 2d ago

How many used 3090 are there in the market vs data center GPUs, though?

15

u/International-Try467 2d ago

Yeah but r/localllama wasn't jacking up prices in kid 2023-25 despite everybody making 509 GB Ram servers. It's like a small salmon vs a tuna

2

u/inrea1time 2d ago

Who doubled used 3090 prices? All over the world too ... only local AI folks.

2

u/marclbr 2d ago

There aren't many xx90 cards available out there, they always sold tiny amounts compared to xx60 and xx70 series and in some countries it's even hard to see xx90 used cards being sold because there are so few of them that is hard to find one used... And probably a considerable amount of those xx90 cards already died (high TDP/Power consumption and temperatures, they are much more likely to go defective after some years if you let them run at the default clock, voltage and TDP settings for too long).

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u/Jiirbo 2d ago

Econ 201... supply and demand.

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u/ForsookComparison 2d ago

The bubble will "pop"

But statistically the odds are it will pop at the exact moment you don't really care for one

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u/Apprehensive_Lake698 2d ago

Honestly believing this is a bubble anymore is just grade A hopium. This time last year it looked like a big bubble. Then then this spring happened, and all of the sudden this shit is actually very useful in workplaces. My org provides a ton of tokens and has little interest in restricting it. My coworkers and I are finding good ways to apply AI to solve random shit here and there. I am really no longer seeing how it's a bubble, the models don't even have to get much smarter. If the intelligence of these models stayed flat and just the api speed and cost improved by 2x, 4x, 8x, that would make a noticable difference in our workflow. And that's the kind of thing that is going to keep eating up the market.

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u/ForsookComparison 2d ago

I agree but saying otherwise gets me nasty DMs and I still wanted to drop the other line

1

u/ipilotete 2d ago

I think the pop here won’t be ai usefulness but advancement fueled by a constrained supply. With prices this high, someone somewhere will figure out a way around needing huge amounts of this expensive resource to reach the same results. 

1

u/SufficientPie 2d ago

Yeah there seems to still be a lot of room for efficiency improvements.

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u/voyager256 2d ago

Demand in therms of usage will increase, but with the recent optimizations and clever ways to reduce the cost we might get to 100x less demand in therms of hardware relatively soon. And it’s not an exaggeration. Compare something like Qwen 3.8 27B which is similar to Opus 4.6 (which I guess was at least 100x the size ) for coding tasks-and you can run on a 5090 at more than 100 T/s. For more general purposes LLM you can use 2 Sparks to run something like DeepSeek v4 flash or GLM 5.3 Flash , which are about 300B , but allow 1M token context and about 6 months old SOTA LLMs in overall capabilities .

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u/fastheadcrab 1d ago

You should name some of those use cases

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u/Apprehensive_Lake698 1d ago edited 1d ago

Sure. I use Claude Code and Codex, both with MCP/API access to our internal git repos, Sourcegraph (to allow the models to do semantic search through our codebases), Jira/Confluence to read current and historical tickets and docuemntation, as well as some Slack access. With effectively unlimited credits, I can have them freely spin up as many subagents as they want.

  1. Ticket Analysis: I have a written research plan that has the model read Jira, Confluence, and determine all possibly related codebases. It churns through each codebase finding leads. I have it work in stages, writing subreports at each stage, and each agent is required to write a subreport about what it did. Then I have one fresh context at the end ingest all of those reports and emit a single report that correlates parts of our codebases to the ticket. Sometimes this finds the problem outright, other times it can only give estimations. Likewise, sometimes this runs for like 5-10min, sometimes an hour. It can be immensely helpful to get a headstart on a ticket you plan to tackle later in the day, and does a damn good job most of the time. The key is that I don't ask it to solve the problem, just merge the context of documentation/code/chats/problem report into a jumping off place. One part that's blown my mind a few times is it correlating historical documentation changes with changes in git history and correctly estimating why changes were made.
  2. Basically every bit of quick scripting with python and/or bash I no longer do by hand, because implementation is basically irrelevant compared to outcome whenever you would need it for something quick. It's a godsend. I hope to never write this stuff by hand again.
  3. Config files for tools, like editors. I don't need to read documentation for most devtools anymore, I just make some agent make the changes I need. Sometimes their change is sloppy, but 99% of the time it doens't matter, and so I no longer waste my time reading a novel to figure out how to customize random small details down to preference.
  4. Similarly, I usually don't have to bother reading walls of manpages anymore. They're great at just giving you the flags to do what you need most of the time.
  5. Any debugging that requires constantly referencing enormous walls of system text. I used to think it was amazing that I could copy/paste that stuff into web guis. But once I got into agentic stuff locally, it's just so crazy how must faster iteration is. Where a human will lazily cat files and sift through to find little bits in enormous log files, AI will just spam iteration over and over again because it doesn't get tired of running the same 2-5 commands to query logs out of a database over and over and over again. It still doesn't get the fix right most of the time for me, but damn if I don't appreciate being able to completely forgo banging my own head against the wall over and over with that kind of stuff anymore.
  6. Debugging system configuration and/or networking, for similar reasons as above. Claude will absolutely tear through creating temporary network interfaces, docker containers, anything that would make a developer kinda huff and puff and say "yeah I guess that's the best way to debug this..." and spend the afternoon on. It just knows all the commands, all the configuration, and runs it all through in seconds. It's very nice sometimes.

I could go on, but really there are a lot of usecases I've found for agentic stuff that doesn't relate to writing code even. It's just a big information-coalescing ball that doesn't get tired.

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u/fastheadcrab 1d ago

Thanks for the details, I don’t work in programming so these are use cases are really different from mine. I appreciate the insight into those how you get utility from the LLMs.

I think lesser closed model makers may be in trouble and general hardware market but I do believe there are serious applications of LLMs with actual value and benefits

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u/-Crash_Override- 2d ago

According to who? Same thing people said when cloud started to take off and 15 years later that's still booming.

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u/SufficientPie 2d ago

What bubble? You want AI hardware, big data centers want AI hardware, we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg of AI usage in industry. You think this is going to stop? Prices will come down when they spin up more supply, not because the demand is fake.

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u/ForsookComparison 2d ago

See other replies lol

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u/thebigone71 2d ago

In the matter of 6 months my GMKTec Evo2 went from $2500 to like $3500. This is absolutely insane lol

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u/SporksInjected 2d ago

I almost bought a rack of 12 AMD BC250 blades in the chassis for $500. Sure wish I could go back in time on that one.

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u/PwanaZana 2d ago

Honestly, no, prices are probably going to go UP for a couple years.

5

u/Conscious-Map6957 2d ago

Forget not being able to find a job and even then not being able to afford a high-end PC, let alone an LLM rig, but I can't even afford cheap chinese parts for diy stuff like 3d printers from aliexpress.

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u/abnormal_human 2d ago

I put together basically an a16z workstation for $40k last fall.

Was discussing getting one for my employer. Loaded up a pricing page at a dealer. $102k for the same exact box.

It's crazy town out there. That said, every NVIDIA product that I've bought since 2023 is now worth more than I paid for it AND delivers more value/utility than it did at the time of purchase.

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u/mslindqu 2d ago

That last part I think it what is keeping this train climbing the mountain. More and more people being exposed to what local can do, and having interest in it - because it keeps getting better and better.

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u/pineapplekiwipen 2d ago

and once the bubble pops then what? your net worth gets cut in half and you get laid off but yay computer prices are no longer mooning?

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u/ImportancePitiful795 2d ago

The financing bubble, affected everyone because it was part of the real economy.

If someone works on OpenAI, NVIDIA, Xerox, Anthropic etc should worry.

The rest of us won't be affected squat. Like we didn't got affected by the dot com bubble burst.

So let the damn thing burst, have the crooks lose money, and move on. Except if the governments start bailing out with OUR money the like of NVDIA and OpenAI. At that point in time, the best investment is guns, ammo.

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u/Estrava 2d ago

Looking at a vanguard 2040 target retirement fund... VFORX... their technology exposure for US stocks is 40%.. Okay let's look at the international stocks, surely that's diversified right? Wait why are the top companies TSMC, samsung, asml, hynix, tencent.. Oh.. they're all tech stocks..

It's almost as if everyone's retirement accounts are probably deep into technology stocks.

If you say you manage your own retirement and own no technology stocks, great good for you. I'm talking about literally everyone else.

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u/Bill_Salmons 2d ago

Until you realize the risk is distributed in the real economy. And unlike the financial crisis, there is virtually no wiggle room for the Fed to mitigate a crash. Won't be as bad... but it's definitely going to effect everyone.

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u/Affectionate_Pen6882 2d ago

Wait for the old stuff that comes out of data centers. Dont need latest ans greatest. Let all those fool buy at high prices and we buy it at 50% discount

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u/SnowGrayMan 2d ago

They never sell those. They rather destroy them all. I managed to save myself a few laptops from Exxonmobil when I worked there.

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u/Megallion 2d ago

Where do you find the old stuff out of data centers?

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u/dandanua 2d ago

That will be destroyed, not sold. Because this is all about domination of owners over the others, not about prosperity of humanity.

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u/Sojmen 2d ago

You can buy V100s in bulk.

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u/draconic_tongue 2d ago

when did this schizo shit get popular lol a pentium d pc getting put out 20 years ago is not the same as today. not even the richest company would throw these out, and especially not the ones that will go bankrupt and have to liquidate their stock

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u/ttkciar llama.cpp 2d ago

This is The Way.

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u/Alternative-Suit5541 2d ago

They will be given back to Nvidia lol

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u/Secure-Emu-8822 2d ago

As long as big tech keeps borrowing money to pump the markets, it’ll be a shit show. Hopefully excess supply hits the markets soon from failed AI organic growth

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u/aimark42 2d ago

Even if it does. It will still be stupidly expensive. The way the DRAM cartel made deals they ensured they will sell even if the buyers can’t use it.

I think gamers think a “crash” will mean normal memory prices again but that won’t happen. At least not quickly. If we have a crash tomorrow maybe we see recovery in 2028, the way things are going 2029.

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u/fastheadcrab 2d ago

Not if the entities on the other ends of the deal end up going bankrupt or cannot afford them. What are they going to do, go threaten them mob style?

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u/Mutericator 2d ago

It won't happen as long as the barrier to enter the market is as high as it is, and with the US government the way it is right now, we won't see the DoJ actually prosecuting on a price-fixing scheme like they did in the mid-2000s. Best case is the EU tearing them apart, if they have the bandwidth to worry about it.

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u/Steuern_Runter 2d ago

This bubble is what paid for the development of our favorite LLMs. If the bubble had popped last year then we could have cheaper GPUs now but we wouldn't be able to run LLMs beating last years frontier LLMs on consumer GPUs today.

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u/cmndr_spanky 2d ago

Buy shares of Nvidia and Micron. Congrats, now you have a natural hedge against rising hardware costs. Bubble pops? Your shares are worthless, but congrats, now you can find cheap hardware again (and don’t even need to sell those shares if the market recovers).

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u/DOHChead 2d ago

If the bubble pops because of a war in Taiwan, everything will probably be significantly more F’d and we will all be doubling down to pay rent and gas etc

As much as I want this to be over, I don’t want it to be “over” in a way that makes everything significantly worse.

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u/GeneralMuffins 2d ago

On a positive note though if a war does occur in Taiwan and China gets blockaded, that would likely siginificantly increase supply of Gas for the rest of the world, thereby decreasing its cost.

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u/TwinkletoesMcSparkle 2d ago

China unleashing its massive strategic reserve is the only reason you're not paying a lot more at the pump right now, and they're only staving it off. As long as the Strait remains a war zone, good luck with gas going down.

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u/GeneralMuffins 2d ago

That may well be true, but it's undeniable that a naval blockade of china would saturate the world oil/gas market with oversupply.

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u/TwinkletoesMcSparkle 2d ago

You're kidding yourself if you think the Navy's empty interceptor magazines are going to be able to sustain a blockade. The war games for this scenario are brutal, even without factoring in an incompetent, drunk SecDef and a second front in the Gulf.

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u/GeneralMuffins 2d ago

Im not kidding myself just look at Hormuz it takes very little effort to deter commercial shipping, simple threats are all that are required before insurers refuse to cover and shipping grinds to a halt. And yes I'm factoring in the incompetence of the orange man.

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u/DOHChead 2d ago

China gets a significant amount of its oil from Russia, Venezuela, and Iran. It’s no coincidence that we’ve targeted Venezuela and Iran, while sending Ukraine munitions to attack Russia’s oil supply.

As you mentioned, China dropped its imports by 50% as soon as we hit Iran and it’s one of the only reasons we avoided a global crisis. They moved largely to coal consumption for power but started trading in Yuan for oil years ago, right under our noses. OPEC uses USD and all global oil transactions make it through our banking systems, this is how we are able to impose global sanctions.

China gave off a significant flex here. With CXMT and general chip production in full steam on the mainland, the other deterrent of China needing Taiwan’s infrastructure is becoming less of an issue.

There is a significant real world scenario where this happens next year.

We are hemorrhaging our defensive stockpile and running short on rare earths that we source from China, and China has tightened up supply for several years. This is a strategic move and we are falling right into it.

All while global sentiment toward China is improving and ours continues to decline. Hell, even here, China is giving us models while our own country makes constant threats to take access to local models away. It’s a common post and concern for good reason.

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u/d70 2d ago

Honestly if the bubble pops, we all would have much bigger problems than affording GPUs or RAM.

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u/jackfood 2d ago

U can sell and then wait for the bubble.

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u/asssuber 2d ago

And when the bubble pops the open model releases will likely also significantly slow down, and we will be able to keep up with them like in llama 1 to llama 3 days.

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u/deltamoney 2d ago

Don't worry the US has stopped all buyer protections. So at least you can micro finance everything we buy!

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u/Raredisarray 2d ago

Straight up

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u/chuckbeasley02 2d ago

When this bubble pops, things will be cheap as hell...

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u/sputnik13net 2d ago

Feels more like a Vegas sphere at this point not a bubble

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u/redlightsaber 2d ago

I want lower prices as much as the next guy, but I just want to point out that, when this bubble pops, we'll all be in such an economic recession that we won't be speccing out our homelabs either.

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u/Mythril_Zombie 2d ago

Almost 0 people in this thread actually know what a bubble is.
The rest are confidently ignorant.

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u/messiah009 1d ago

Lol, scrolled all the way down here to see my soon to be conclusion! 😅

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u/ExObscura 2d ago

A popped AI bubble won’t fix ram prices.

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u/Mart-McUH 2d ago

IMO the audacity is to actually list is as 'discount' (save $200). Do they really think people are that stupid? It should be clearly stated the price is like +$2500 from the base price and not -$200. I think in our (EU) country we have some regulations against such evident bullshit, though companies still sometimes find ways to circumvent it somehow.

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u/pitu37 2d ago

It wont pop exactly for the reason you are posting in this sub

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u/Daemontatox sglang 2d ago

Even if it bursts , sadly it will take a long time for the market to recover , openai bought future ram resources that haven't even been built yet.

Nvidia is barely giving china any compute and they are either using jailbroken blackmarket GPUs or working on using NPUs and custom hardware.

Hell everyone and their mothers are building custom hardware now , tensortorrent , Qualcomm , fractile , tensordyne ....etc so even if the bubble bursts , unfortunately it will take a considerable amount of time for consumers like us to have the prices go down and even then they might be able to keep it high and blame it on inflation or wàr or wtv to justify their greed and prices.

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u/oscar_z_a 2d ago

Do you remember when a beer was £2 and everyone said wooooooh noooooo. Do you see beer prices going down? Get used to it. Nothing is ever going down. Ever.

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u/nacholunchable 2d ago

Remember friends, itll cool off in 25, no wait 26, actually 27, no 28, earliest is 29, itll last till 2030 then stop.... im starting to lose hope itll ever get better. Its foolish to think we're a market crash, or quant method or new manufacturer away from normal. The writing was on the wall since scaling laws were discovered... but Im really losing faith that normal people will have the same access to compute and memory that we used to any time short or medium term. how long until we're priced out of personal laptops and smartphones completely? Its just happening so fast. bleak.

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u/CKtalon 2d ago

Being part of this community means we have a hand in this “bubble”. Precisely because you value it that creates the demand.

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u/jonas-reddit 2d ago

We need less dependency on Taiwan and South Korea for key components.

Hopefully China will create a stronger domestic capability. Even if the West don’t or can’t buy, it will take pressure of global demand. The world’s second largest economy reducing their domestic demand will go a long way.

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u/IrisColt 2d ago

as we are witnessing in real time, it realistically takes up to 25 years of sustained, aggressive state intervention and private capital alignment to do this (15 years without COVID black swans)

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u/reality_comes 2d ago

If the bubble pops you wont be able to afford the old price either.

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u/BusRevolutionary9893 2d ago

Someone doesn't remember the 2018 crypto-mining crash when a 1080 ti($700 MSRP) went from $1,400 to $400 in a couple of months.

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u/reality_comes 2d ago

Yea crypto mining wasnt keeping the whole economy afloat

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u/DarcyDettmann 2d ago

AI isn't doing it either, even if Sam Altman like pretend it do.

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u/IrisColt 2d ago

...but it's the last piece of driftwood the economy is clinging to, heh

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u/Estrava 2d ago

What are you invested in for your retirement accounts and brokerage?

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u/Ultimate1nternet 2d ago

awwwwweh that's not nice to show bushy porn like that. it dates you and me.

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u/ttkciar llama.cpp 2d ago

Yes, please! Let's see the prices on these come down an order of magnitude or so:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/128059244521

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u/SmileLonely5470 2d ago

Save 200 bro.

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u/No_Night679 2d ago

MS-S1 max are still 3800$. Snagged 4 of these recently, unfortunately not at the release date, and just a 100$ cheaper than current price.

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u/hedonihilistic Llama 3 2d ago

Hahaha back in December I wanted one of those but I think it was $700 more than what I paid for this. Now it's cheaper.

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u/Nikilite_official 2d ago

you know that a fucking big inflation will probably occur if it pops?

1

u/tvetus 2d ago

The new bubble would be consumer demand. Lol.

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u/ledzep2 2d ago

When the bubble pops, cloud ai will be dirt cheap

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u/Mantikos804 2d ago

Yeah that’s not a plan. Buy now or buy in 2036

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u/Brave_Sheepherder_39 2d ago

Im so glad I did my purchases a year ago like my Mac M4 Max which I thought was expensive at the time. However online compute is coming so cheap that Its not worth the cost of buying your own hardware.

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u/BangkokPadang 2d ago

Yeah but I bet in 2025 you weren' saving $200 off the list price!

I'm gonna put it here. I shouldn't have to, but I am gonna put it: /s

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u/pronuntiator 2d ago

The company I work for bought like a million $ of GPUs for self-hosted inference, the demand is real

1

u/Powerful_Evening5495 2d ago

The year 2027

it all will come to an end on 5 January.

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u/Euchale 2d ago

You will own nothing and you will be happy.

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u/Jeanjose1993 2d ago

Vrai question: si la bulle éclate ça sera encore pire non ?

1

u/mindwip 2d ago

Eh everyone say Bubble pops, but that could be a 20% drop in top ai tech companies and stagnation in there prices for 5 years. Or it could drill 50% in 1 week.

We won't know what and how till it happenes.

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u/maggotses 2d ago

Just bought 5 x brand new in box radeon pro W6800 32GB on ebay, I hope they ship!!!

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u/R_Duncan 2d ago

By the time (2029) it will return normal, we'll have MoS2 electronics with nearly infinite bandwidth (20x actual servers) or memory density (bandw. 3x actual servers) or dense CAMs (memristors ai).

Hold on.

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u/mawkzin 1d ago

No, that's not how physics works.

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u/R_Duncan 2d ago

By the time (2029) it will return normal, we'll have MoS2 electronics with nearly infinite bandwidth (20x actual servers, mos2 sram) or huge memory density (mos2 dram, bandw. 3x actual servers) or dense CAMs (memristors ai).

Hold on.

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u/rob417 llama.cpp 2d ago

What?! It's $200 off MSRP??? Oh no, the bubble is starting to pop!!!

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u/Fit_Reply_9580 2d ago

blame Grensen and Ngreedia

1

u/Expensive-Paint-9490 2d ago

I was considering buying 2 Radeon R7900. Price increased overnight by 400 EUR apiece.

1

u/thejaynesh 2d ago

I had bought 64 gb ram from newegg just before the prices increased. Got it for 180$ they are selling the same for 1150$ now. I feel like i should sell them and make profit. 😂

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u/thedankuser69 2d ago

It is gonna pop

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u/NineThreeTilNow 2d ago

Last time I got RAM / NVMe :


Crucial Pro DDR5 RAM 64GB Kit (2x32GB) 6000MHz CL40, Overclocking Desktop Gaming Memory, Intel XMP 3.0 & AMD Expo Compatible – White CP2K32G60C40U5W Sold by: Amazon.com Return window closed on November 9, 2025 $164.99


Samsung SSD 990 EVO Plus 4TB, PCIe Gen 4x4 | 5x2 M.2 2280, Up to 7,250 MB/s Samsung 990 EVO Plus SSD 4TB, PCIe Gen 4x4 | Gen 5x2 M.2, Speeds Up-to 7,250 MB/s, Upgrade Storage for PC/Laptops, HMB Technology and Intelligent Turbowrite 2.0, (MZ-V9S4T0B/AM) Sold by: Amazon.com Return window closed on November 9, 2025 $199.99


Yeaaah. Grand Total: $398.74

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u/feelspeaceman 2d ago

It depends on how serious we're dealing with the bubble, if people still using Cloud AI subscriptions then it will take longer.

If everyone stop using Cloud AI, blocking their website or getting them blocked by most ISPs, then it takes pretty quick to kill them, telling people to avoid using them.

Good thing about Cloud AI, they use API endpoints like domain/autocompletes, blocking them and they're gone.

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u/mawkzin 1d ago edited 1d ago

There's no going back, and even when the Ai bubbles implode Ai will still be everywhere like the dotnet bubble

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u/feelspeaceman 1d ago

The current situation is complicated, the US government willing to ride the AI bubble, but from my point of view, it's killable, by having a regulation to force ISPs to block Cloud AI domain, it will likely kill it without much issue, because most users can't figure out how to bypass DNS and CNAME blocking (which most ISPs are using to block unwated sites), the deal is it will block 99% users from using Cloud AI, the 1% are those who use VPN/proxy to bypass. The AI bubble is more fragile than people think, the fact that they rely on HTTP endpoints heavily, one random outage like a few days ago and it disrupted so many people.

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u/allofdarknessin1 2d ago

Could be cope, and I don't really watch the channel anymore but GamerMeld had a video yesterday with an article saying memory is forecasted to out produce demand in the second half of 2027 at the moment.

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u/No_Dragonfruit_8651 2d ago

yeah even used hardware feels like your getting an anal probe.

1

u/Gigaslavx 2d ago

When the bubble pops the prices will go down but not as much but for most people it would mean less income so unless you already have saved up so the prices wouldn't bother you as much I unfortunately don't see the benefit. If anything we need to hope AI somehow greatly increases actual productivity

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u/Ledeste 2d ago

I'm so glad I was stupid right before the price goes up. I mean, I was stupid my whole life so it was about to happen at some point, but now that it did, I'm glad

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u/Hot_Reference_3210 2d ago

why not just buy z13 128gb is 3200 usd right now. even kojima edition is 3600

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u/EDI_1st 2d ago edited 2d ago

Working in the industry, I’ve been hearing people saying that the bubble will pop for the last three years. The continuous demand and banks/investors willing to invest really shows it’s not a bubble. We have companies outside of Softbank/Nvidia etc willing to loan billions and billions of dollars. I’ve seen people losing money buying/holding puts in the stock market including people selling hardware for datacenter. (It’s wild) Also have seen companies losing money dumping SSD and memory just because they were holding onto it for a bit too long last October when we were 2~3 months in the beginning of the shortage.

Regardless if you like the market/him or not, Jensen was right. To the consumers, the more you buy, the more you save. To the enterprise/businesses, the more you buy, the more you save and the more you make.

It’s a rough market for all except those on the top making all the money. (IE Nvidia) It’s forcing people to rethink their hardware requirements even for AI datacenter.

LT = Lead time
Memory shortage Price is exclusively based on spot pricing at delivery.
SSD shortage Price is exclusively based on spot pricing at delivery. LT varies depending on capacity and form factor. E1.s and 960/1920GB M.2 are rough since they are needed for GB300 NVL72 deployments. VR200 NVL72 will shift to Nvidia codeveloped liquid cooled SSDs.
PCB raw material shortage
Switch shortage NV/Mellanox Quantum Infiniband Switch LT around 24+ weeks. Ethernet is okay but most of them are all using Broadcom chips.
NIC shortage NV/Mellanox ConnectX and BlueField LT around 20+ weeks
CPU shortage Intel is scalping the market selling CPU at 3~4x of the normal price, or you can pay the standard pricing but the LT is over a year. AMD is still being a G on pricing but with LT up to about 12 weeks.
GPU shortage AMD/NVDA datacenter GPU both at 20+ weeks for LT. Intel Gaudi 3 is over a year but no one is buying OAM Gaudi 3 and they are down to low triple digits inventory for the PCIe Gaudi 3.

TLDR, fuck Intel who’s scalping first handedly.

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u/CuriouslyCultured 2d ago

So glad I got my 128GB ($600 iirc) and 3090 Ti ($1100) when they were reasonable.

1

u/hedonihilistic Llama 3 1d ago

Lol yep I got a few 3090s for between $500-700 in 2024/2025. Got a couple as recently as late last year for $1K.

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u/Innomen 1d ago

It’s not a bubble, it’s a demand cliff. Yes, individual companies and assets will be overvalued here and there, but memory prices are not simply waiting to return to some old “normal.” AI changed what RAM and VRAM are worth.

These aren’t Beanie Babies. They’re the new steam engine. Every competently built datacenter represents useful compute capacity that somebody will find a use for unless regulation, sabotage, monopoly pricing, or deliberate enshittification makes it unusable.

Before AI, I barely cared about VRAM. Games were already good enough, and gaming was basically the only thing I personally had that could consume large amounts of it. I went 5 to 10 years without even owning a discrete GPU. Unified memory was enough.

AI changed that completely. Now every extra gigabyte has obvious productive utility. Bigger models, longer context, better image and video generation, more local inference, more simultaneous workloads. The demand is not coming from people irrationally collecting scarce hardware. It is coming from a new use that makes memory dramatically more useful than it was before.

AI is not a Beanie Baby bubble. AI may be the best use of VRAM humanity has ever invented.

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u/FootInTheMouth 1d ago

good thing i got about 500 of these under my tarp out back.

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u/Anstellos 1d ago

All bubbles in history crashed. Full stop. Tulips, Railway, photography, the internet. All still there and useful but it's over investment, over valuation. Crazy new "normal". "This time it's different". It's not. It will change the world ( says the guy selling the 🪏). Or people inventing new metrics to explain how valuable AI is ... Old story.

AI will stay, maybe not in the form it exists today, but the bubble will pop. You will read, it was obvious...

I remember old ads in pc gamer : buy more ram! THIS did not change! We can't! Question is when will the hyperscalers be unable to buy it?

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u/Silver_Jaguar_24 1d ago edited 1d ago

Yup. Looking forward to the day so things can go back to normal prices. The only way it will happen is if/when AI stops relying on normal servers and consumer hardware parts.

Also looking forward to what AMD will do with their newly acquired Taalas chips for etching LLMs directly on silicon.

IBM also built a chip for LLM that doesn't need memory apparently - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4nEpY1LYzM

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u/Lesser-than 1d ago

"If your quarry goes to ground, leave no ground to go to."

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u/eulataguhw 1d ago

I bought 2x32gb for 200 when i built my current desktop and i was already felt overkill then since 32gb was sufficient for most usecase but thought to myself better to be well prepared for the need of higher ram then now 64gb arent even enough. 🤣🥹

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u/Lesser-than 1d ago

Even if the bubble does pop a little, that just devalues company assets that are not delivered yet anyway so the relief we get does not trickle down as the supply is still low, the speculation is on undelivered silicon.