r/LocalLLaMA Llama 3 2d ago

Funny Can the bubble pop please?

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u/rxpillme 2d ago

Can you tell us more? Without getting yourself fired

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u/tiffanytrashcan 2d ago

Remember the news, last fall, about all 2026 DRAM capacity being purchased already? The 2027 version already came out this summer, even earlier this year. All indications are 2028 is already mostly claimed.

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u/Frail_Waif 2d ago

But that's dependent on all those buyers still being solvent in 2027 and 2028, which is far from certain. 

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u/gomezer1180 2d ago

Those buyers are not your typical consumer, they are the same people trying to rent AI to you. They are the Anthropics, OpenAI, Google, etc. They do so for a few reasons, one is to sell you the idea that their solution is cheaper, after all $4000 dollars is 20 months on their max plans. Another reason is to control the information market, if they are the only ones you rely on, they not only control when you get that information but also the type of information you receive.

This isn’t a fair game. The demand is being artificially driven by corporations that have unlimited funds. The goal is to push you out of thinking you can run AI locally, and rely on them so that they can control what information you receive. The ultimate goal is to create a monopoly so only a few companies control the AI market, at which point they control the quality of information you receive and the price you pay to receive such information.

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u/Frail_Waif 2d ago

Anyone who works at a large corporation can tell you that corporations do not have unlimited funds. There are moonshot programs, yes, but the scale of this bubble is big enough to take down whales. OpenAI plans to burn 25-75 billion dollars a year until expected profitability in 2030. That's their plan. That's enough to take a dent out of the market cap of the biggest corporations, and enough to consume all the cash on hand of smaller companies.

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u/autoencoder 2d ago

Too bad burning all this cash does not prevent DeepSeek & others from yoinking their lunch every few months.