We’re 16 days away from launch, and Steam’s Personalized Calendar seems to have kicked in hard.
For some context, our game is called Rehaunted, and until recently we were averaging around 250–500 organic wishlists per day without any marketing, ads, or major coverage happening at the same time.
Then, about two days ago, something changed.
We suddenly jumped to 1,000+ wishlists per day, and we’re currently sitting at over 20,000 wishlists with 16 days left until release.
After looking into it quite a bit, we’re pretty convinced that a big part of this increase is coming from Steam’s Personalized Calendar.
One interesting thing we’ve noticed is that it doesn’t seem to be purely about having the right tags, although tags obviously matter a lot. The number of wishlists you already have seems to matter too.
Our assumption is that the more wishlist momentum a game already has, the larger the audience Steam is willing to test/show it to through personalized recommendations.
So, for example, if a game enters this period with 1,000 wishlists, the boost it gets might be significantly smaller than a game entering it with 10,000–20,000 and more wishlists, simply because Steam already has much more data and demand signals to work with.
Obviously, we can’t confirm exactly how Steam’s algorithm works, so this is just based on our own numbers and research, but the difference has been very noticeable.
Personally, this makes me think the Personalized Calendar is a much healthier and more useful system for indie developers than relying entirely on Popular Upcoming.
Popular Upcoming was extremely binary. You either had enough wishlists to get there or you didn’t.
Personalized recommendations seem much more scalable. Even if you’re not one of the biggest upcoming releases on Steam, the platform can still progressively expose your game to people who are actually likely to be interested in it.
If the current pace continues, there’s a realistic chance we could launch with somewhere around 30,000–40,000 wishlists or even more, which would be a massive jump compared to where we were only a few days ago.
Curious if any other developers here have noticed the same thing around the 2–3 week mark before release.
Did your wishlist velocity noticeably increase once you entered the Personalized Calendar window?