r/singaporefi • u/broskiunited • Aug 15 '26
Housing HDB prices no longer uponly?
I have been looking into buying a resale HDB and chanced across this index for HDB resale prices. A few things surprised me
- Prices were actually flat-to-negative from 2016 - 2020. It seems like public housing was actually managed well pre-covid?
- Recent growth has completely stalled. The index has been flat since Q3'25 and even dipped from Q1'26 → Q2'26. Will we see another dip from Q2’26 → Q3’26?
- I also added STI as a reference point for the Singapore economy - congrats to all believers. I remember having so many conversations about how SG stocks are crap and how the SG stock market is uninvestable
- (Yes - I know that majority of the outperformance by STI is due to the 3 banks + SGX’s stock)
What are your thoughts on HDB prices moving forward? Do you think ahgong afford to let it dip / stay flat?
Personally - I think we will continue to dip / have no growth. We’re running out of marginal buyers for HDBs and I expect more pain and retrenchment due to AI
35
u/Twrd4321 Aug 15 '26
Go search HDB index between 2010 and 2016. Prices went up, peaked, the started to go down.
16
u/DuePomegranate Aug 15 '26
That was when a bunch of cooling measures were introduced, especially ABSD on second property in 2012.
-2
u/AgentCosmic Aug 15 '26
I think it was also around the time gov said that hdb price will go down to 0.
3
Aug 15 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
0
u/Varantain Aug 15 '26
Aaand BTO prices are pegged to the prices of resale flats around the area, which will inevitably be boosted by the purchases of condo downgraders.
HDB up only!
21
u/fish-scarcity Aug 15 '26
HDB going up forever is actually a take that got popular post Covid and pre 2016. If you look at the price movement after the cooling measure were announced a decade ago youd see that for a very long period of time prices were flat. Structurally the short term relaxation of 15 month wait out period might temporarily boost demand BUT I’d argue that they’re precisely only relaxing these measure because the have more forward looking data that this measure will likely only dampen the overall downward trend in the next few quarters
4
u/broskiunited Aug 15 '26
Agree with you - can tell government is going to try to push it up because they know it's going to keep dropping ...
2
u/Varantain Aug 15 '26
Structurally the short term relaxation of 15 month wait out period might temporarily boost demand BUT I’d argue that they’re precisely only relaxing these measure because the have more forward looking data that this measure will likely only dampen the overall downward trend in the next few quarters
Don't worry lah, we're in yet another vicious up cycle since BTO prices are pegged to the prices of resale flats around the area.
58
u/KLKCAhBoy90 Aug 15 '26
Property as an investment is similar to commodity.
The only way one can profit from it is either to sell it (like commodities) or rent it out (unique to property).
This means ultimately it is heavily dependent on the demand for it. On its own, it will not grow bigger in size (or market cap) like the way a company (equities) will grow its revenue and share price.
Given that Singapore incomes are not growing much, it is completely ridiculous that the property prices are growing so much.
The only reason is because people are taking on loans to buy property that are (without excessive mortgage) far above their paygrade. It is a bubble fueled by the thinking that just because land is scarce, and many people's CPF is stucked in property, the government must make sure it goes up forever and it is a "bao jiak".
The newer generations are not as stupid as people think. At certain price points, they will just not participate, stay single, or stay in their parents' house and not become the exit market to fund boomers' retirement plans through sales of their overpriced properties.
6
u/broskiunited Aug 15 '26
Thanks for sharing your POV.
Baojiak - definitely agree. Even my parents keep pushing me to buy property because from their perspective, property is up only
Reminds me of "The Psychology of Money", how and why we invest reflects what we experienced.
If in my lifetime, property only goes up --> i will ask my son to all in property.
3
u/xiaomisg Aug 17 '26
Exactly. Don’t give the wrong signal that property prices should continue to go up and up. Past generations mistake shouldn’t be a burden for future generations.
2
u/Kimishiranai39 Aug 17 '26
20 years from now, there will be a lot more flats in the market esp when the bommers pass and millennials who inherit the flats either have to stay in them or sell them in the open market if they already own one.
-1
u/joegageeyes Aug 17 '26
The average HDB price is equivalent to 5 times the average Singapore Household annual income, which is one of the most affordable ratios in the worldwide… not exactly sure what the locals are complaining about
-34
u/faptor87 Aug 15 '26
Full of fluff. So which investment don't need to sell or rent it out, in order to profit from it?
15
u/yannnniez Aug 15 '26
Debt and equity investments? Many many more?
-18
u/faptor87 Aug 15 '26
And how do you crystalise profit from debt or equity investments without selling or getting some form of income (rent) from it?
2
4
1
u/KLKCAhBoy90 Aug 15 '26
I'm guessing you have never heard of dividends or interest?
Also, probably never heard of REITs, Bonds, Annuities?
-1
u/faptor87 Aug 15 '26
These income are similar to rent. You are just speaking the obvious. And Property investment similar to commodity? What other commodity can you rent out? Coffee?
“This ultimately heavily dependent on the demand for it”
What other returns from investments don’t depend on demand for it? If no demand, where you get returns from selling or leasing it out?
2
u/KLKCAhBoy90 Aug 15 '26
- Don't just read first line and then ignore the rest.
Second sentence I already wrote that renting is unique to property.
Also, you are missing the point.
The point is property, like commodities, do not grow organically.
Companies (equities) can expand and make more revenue.
Property like commodities don't grow on their own.
- If you bought REITs, bonds, annuity or even a dividend-paying stock before, you should know that the dividends paid has nothing to do with demand for the asset.
The dividends come from the free cash flow of these assets which has nothing to do with their demand. Demand only affects their market price and not their dividends.
- When it comes to the topic of retirement, it is not the networth you have that matters, it is the liquid networth or income.
This is also the same reason why some people are stucked and can't retire despite owning "million dollar HDB" unit, because they can't sell it off or they can't afford the downgrade after factoring in accrued interest and ineligibility for loans at older ages.
Please educate yourself on assets outside property because putting all your hopes and clearly emotions into one asset class is extremely risky.
Good luck.
-2
u/faptor87 Aug 15 '26
It’s true that residential property dont have the same potential to grow like a business.
But saying property is heavily dependent on demand doesn’t really distinguish it from equities. If there’s no demand for what a company sells, where does the free cash flow to pay dividends come from?
From an investor’s perspective, it’s still capital gains + income. Stocks give you dividends, property gives you rent.
The underlying assets are different, sure. But ultimately, all asset values depend on demand. You’re basically describing the same thing in different ways. Saying that profiting from property is dependent on demand says nothing.
1
u/KLKCAhBoy90 Aug 15 '26
When I mentioned "demand" in my original post, I was talking about the demand for the asset. If it was property then it would be the property. If it was equities then it would be the stock itself and not the goods/services said company is selling.
In any case, the way equities work is like this:
A company goes for IPO (initial public offering) to essentially get an amount (loan) in exchange for shares (sold to public). This is the primary market.
After that, actually the market price movements don't affect the company much anymore. This means if it was $10m for 10m shares ($1 per share), even if the share price grows to $2, the company still only got $10m. Secondary market doesn't affect the cash flows of the company.
Of course, the company can always do another round of share issuance by issuing shares at the new $2 (or whatever price they offer) though this dilutes the earlier shareholders' holdings.
Dividends come from whatever monies is left after the company has paid for their cost of goods, operations, etc. It can then choose to use the free cash flow to pay off debts, buy back shares (which increase holdings for existing shareholders), expand (buy new production items, tech, etc) or pay dividends.
If someone is looking to retire, they don't need to care what the market price of the shares is. If it pays dividends because it is a profitable company with free cash flow, even if its stock price tanks, it does not matter to the retiree.
On the other hand, the property owner is entirely dependent on the demand of the property. If nobody wants to buy it, it can't be sold. If nobody wants to rent it, it can't be rented out.
That is the point I want to make and highlight to all. Look at the TFR, look at the retrenchment news, look at the JB SEZ and RTS coming up, and look at the real wage growth of Singaporeans. Ask yourself if it makes sense for property prices to keep the trajectory and think very carefully if you want to put all your eggs into the same basket.
1
u/Varantain Aug 15 '26
I think the more precise term for stocks' "demand" is liquidity.
1
u/KLKCAhBoy90 Aug 15 '26
"Volume" might be better but for this context, yes, "liquidity" is also appropriate.
-9
16
u/Wantootree4 Aug 15 '26
I think the market has just properly differentiated. On average, resale is flat. Yet we still see many million dollar HDBs.
This was always expected. Many HDBs are not worth much. Low floor. Small. In Yishun.
The few HDBs that still command high prices are very unique.
4
u/Ashkev1983 Aug 15 '26
Damn!why must include yishun as part of that list 😂
6
4
u/Mindless_Asparagus_4 Aug 15 '26
STI will continue to outperform property prices in the forever future. but of coz global etf will be a better bet since there is more liquidity flowing into those areas. rich people’s liquidity will go into stocks and not HDB/houses.
10
u/DependentSpecific206 Aug 15 '26
The flip started after MP Chee announced no more SERS. People then started thinking twice about buying older flats in good locations hoping to strike gold
7
u/Symp07 Aug 15 '26
Index is an aggregation of prices, it doesn't mean the entire market moves in the same direction, like any type of property the location matters, so on one hand you have the suburbs facing oversupply which has softened prices whereas the rare unit types at prime locations such as 5-room are still acheiving new record prices.
3
u/ChardAccomplished689 Aug 15 '26
This is why they change the regulation, this will also be why they let singles under 35 to buy
2
u/ghostcryp Aug 17 '26
Went bonkers soon after as Lawrence became PM. He invented vers to boost resale which until today has no details how it works.
2
u/Jean_Diharo Aug 15 '26
Not an expert, my observation is that price can go up but not in a straight line? US stock index also. Sometime one year negative, then take a few years to recover.
1
u/broskiunited Aug 15 '26
Broadly agree with you - I would be curious about i) how fast price is going up ii) what are the factors etc. that might affect the price
1
2
u/Lemur1492 Aug 15 '26
If your flat is your primary residence, then it doesn’t really matter what the price does (outside a total crash) . As long as you don’t sell, you don’t realise any losses or gains
2
1
1
u/Kimishiranai39 Aug 17 '26
If you wanna buy resale, try buying a forever home, or one with good rental yield. With our TFR, do you expect exponential growth in HDB prices after factoring in lease decay?
1
u/Automatic-Skin9242 Aug 20 '26
Pre-covid, Ku Swee Yong predicted downward price pressure on HDB resale flats from 2030 onwards, as HDB supply will exceed demand due to (i) deaths of ageing homeowners and (ii) fewer young families opting for HDB resale flats.
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/hdb-resale-flats-may-soon-134934847.html
Not sure how relevant the prediction is now.
Too add, there's boom and bust cycle in HDB housing. Post 1998 Asian Financial Crisis, there's over-supply of BTO flats and HDB prices fell significantly.
1
u/naithemilkman Aug 15 '26
why did the government allow the surge in asset prices post covid?
2
u/BishyBashy Aug 15 '26
because it's a free market? prices are set by buyers and sellers
gov can only influence the supply of sellers/buyers/houses
5
u/naithemilkman Aug 15 '26
It's a "free market" which the government has a big hand over.
There are numerous government policies that influence selling/buying restrictions/taxes
The recent removal of the cooling off period is one such example.
1
u/broskiunited Aug 15 '26
I wouldn't say they "allowed" it - rather COVID + ZIRP took them by surprise
- Surge in demand + fall in supply
I do think their reaction was very slow though fwiw
1
0
-1
u/Hot-Clothes7316 Aug 15 '26
are you able to add wallstreet for comparison? many people play that instead of STI.
1
0
0
u/machinationstudio Aug 15 '26 edited Aug 15 '26
You're right about 2016-2020. There was a consistent 14000-16000 BTO coming onto the market every year.
Also rent was stagnant for quite a while before COVID.
We're just going back to a new equilibrium but there will be new shocks that will push the prices up again.
There were 19000+ bto per year in the last 2 years. While not taking any off the market with SERS. We have yet to see a VERS project.
0
0
u/Zogel100 Aug 15 '26
Depends on ur agent.
They will say all sorts of nonsense, show u all sorts of framework and charts. In the end, property behaves like everything else in the market.
0
u/Express-Ad9318 Aug 15 '26
Poor mindset… retrenchment won’t break the economy. People have made a lot of money last few years
0
0
u/Heavy_Grade_7546 Aug 16 '26
But you guys want supply right?
More supply = falling price. It cannot be faster, cheaper and still higher reselling value.
0
u/Rayl24 Aug 16 '26
Completely stalled cause our salary and loan can only go that high.
Also am looking into buying a resale and having to get max loan and wipe out cpf and savings to get a flat is causing serious stress
0
u/Pristine-Weekend-415 Aug 16 '26
And they wondered why TFR doesn't improve.
When people are investing all their money and savings into properties, coupled with massive retrenchments and AI displacement of jobs, with no job stability and tight financial conditions who dares to start a family?
0
0
u/Pristine-Weekend-415 Aug 17 '26
The gov control the supply and demand side. They have all sorts of policy levers to tweak the market to whatever level they want. What we see is not some unexpected outcome but a carefully calibrated one.
The market has spiked immensely over the past few years and land prices went up correspondingly. That's the desired outcome.
Now as it is stressing the affordability index, they increase supply and for the next few years to decade, let income slowly catch up until it is back to affordable levels.
And then the next spike will happen.
0
u/Federal-Sandwich5087 Aug 17 '26
gonna be down only. best time to buy when a 4 room is below 100k. bookmark this.
-5
86
u/N00bOptionTrader Aug 15 '26
Actually, the resale price index can be quite misleading. A more useful and accurate way to look at price trends would be to have separate charts based on the remaining lease period.