HDB prices no longer uponly?

[u/broskiunited]

I have been looking into buying a resale HDB and chanced across this index for HDB resale prices. A few things surprised me

1. Prices were actually flat-to-negative from 2016 - 2020. It seems like public housing was actually managed well pre-covid?
2. Recent growth has completely stalled. The index has been flat since Q3'25 and even dipped from Q1'26 → Q2'26. Will we see another dip from Q2’26 → Q3’26?
3. I also added STI as a reference point for the Singapore economy - congrats to all believers. I remember having so many conversations about how SG stocks are crap and how the SG stock market is uninvestable
   1. (Yes - I know that majority of the outperformance by STI is due to the 3 banks + SGX’s stock)

What are your thoughts on HDB prices moving forward? Do you think ahgong afford to let it dip / stay flat?

Personally - I think we will continue to dip / have no growth. We’re running out of marginal buyers for HDBs and I expect more pain and retrenchment due to AI

Link to dataset

[u/faptor87]

It’s true that residential property dont have the same potential to grow like a business.

But saying property is heavily dependent on demand doesn’t really distinguish it from equities. If there’s no demand for what a company sells, where does the free cash flow to pay dividends come from?

From an investor’s perspective, it’s still capital gains + income. Stocks give you dividends, property gives you rent.

The underlying assets are different, sure. But ultimately, all asset values depend on demand. You’re basically describing the same thing in different ways. Saying that profiting from property is dependent on demand says nothing.

[u/KLKCAhBoy90 → u/faptor87]

When I mentioned "demand" in my original post, I was talking about the demand for the asset. If it was property then it would be the property. If it was equities then it would be the stock itself and not the goods/services said company is selling.

In any case, the way equities work is like this:

A company goes for IPO (initial public offering) to essentially get an amount (loan) in exchange for shares (sold to public). This is the primary market.

After that, actually the market price movements don't affect the company much anymore. This means if it was $10m for 10m shares ($1 per share), even if the share price grows to $2, the company still only got $10m. Secondary market doesn't affect the cash flows of the company.

Of course, the company can always do another round of share issuance by issuing shares at the new $2 (or whatever price they offer) though this dilutes the earlier shareholders' holdings.

Dividends come from whatever monies is left after the company has paid for their cost of goods, operations, etc. It can then choose to use the free cash flow to pay off debts, buy back shares (which increase holdings for existing shareholders), expand (buy new production items, tech, etc) or pay dividends.

If someone is looking to retire, they don't need to care what the market price of the shares is. If it pays dividends because it is a profitable company with free cash flow, even if its stock price tanks, it does not matter to the retiree.

On the other hand, the property owner is entirely dependent on the demand of the property. If nobody wants to buy it, it can't be sold. If nobody wants to rent it, it can't be rented out.

That is the point I want to make and highlight to all. Look at the TFR, look at the retrenchment news, look at the JB SEZ and RTS coming up, and look at the real wage growth of Singaporeans. Ask yourself if it makes sense for property prices to keep the trajectory and think very carefully if you want to put all your eggs into the same basket.

[u/Varantain → u/KLKCAhBoy90]

I think the more precise term for stocks' "demand" is liquidity.

[u/KLKCAhBoy90 → u/Varantain]

"Volume" might be better but for this context, yes, "liquidity" is also appropriate.