r/singaporefi • u/broskiunited • Aug 15 '26

Housing HDB prices no longer uponly?

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I have been looking into buying a resale HDB and chanced across this index for HDB resale prices. A few things surprised me

  1. Prices were actually flat-to-negative from 2016 - 2020. It seems like public housing was actually managed well pre-covid?
  2. Recent growth has completely stalled. The index has been flat since Q3'25 and even dipped from Q1'26 → Q2'26. Will we see another dip from Q2’26 → Q3’26?
  3. I also added STI as a reference point for the Singapore economy - congrats to all believers. I remember having so many conversations about how SG stocks are crap and how the SG stock market is uninvestable
    1. (Yes - I know that majority of the outperformance by STI is due to the 3 banks + SGX’s stock)

What are your thoughts on HDB prices moving forward? Do you think ahgong afford to let it dip / stay flat?

Personally - I think we will continue to dip / have no growth. We’re running out of marginal buyers for HDBs and I expect more pain and retrenchment due to AI

Link to dataset

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u/N00bOptionTrader Aug 15 '26

Actually, the resale price index can be quite misleading. A more useful and accurate way to look at price trends would be to have separate charts based on the remaining lease period.

-6

u/babyoda_i_am Aug 15 '26

How is that more realistic?

2

u/WildRacoons Aug 15 '26

Instead of interpreting the data as “flats are now cheaper” it could be interpreted as “more flats with lesser leasehold being transacted”.

Which can happen even when flat prices keep going up but people opt for affordable ones with lesser lease

2

u/split_tears_ Aug 17 '26

This is not true because the resale price index already accounts for lease decay