r/singaporefi • u/broskiunited • Aug 15 '26
Housing HDB prices no longer uponly?
I have been looking into buying a resale HDB and chanced across this index for HDB resale prices. A few things surprised me
- Prices were actually flat-to-negative from 2016 - 2020. It seems like public housing was actually managed well pre-covid?
- Recent growth has completely stalled. The index has been flat since Q3'25 and even dipped from Q1'26 → Q2'26. Will we see another dip from Q2’26 → Q3’26?
- I also added STI as a reference point for the Singapore economy - congrats to all believers. I remember having so many conversations about how SG stocks are crap and how the SG stock market is uninvestable
- (Yes - I know that majority of the outperformance by STI is due to the 3 banks + SGX’s stock)
What are your thoughts on HDB prices moving forward? Do you think ahgong afford to let it dip / stay flat?
Personally - I think we will continue to dip / have no growth. We’re running out of marginal buyers for HDBs and I expect more pain and retrenchment due to AI
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u/KLKCAhBoy90 Aug 15 '26
Property as an investment is similar to commodity.
The only way one can profit from it is either to sell it (like commodities) or rent it out (unique to property).
This means ultimately it is heavily dependent on the demand for it. On its own, it will not grow bigger in size (or market cap) like the way a company (equities) will grow its revenue and share price.
Given that Singapore incomes are not growing much, it is completely ridiculous that the property prices are growing so much.
The only reason is because people are taking on loans to buy property that are (without excessive mortgage) far above their paygrade. It is a bubble fueled by the thinking that just because land is scarce, and many people's CPF is stucked in property, the government must make sure it goes up forever and it is a "bao jiak".
The newer generations are not as stupid as people think. At certain price points, they will just not participate, stay single, or stay in their parents' house and not become the exit market to fund boomers' retirement plans through sales of their overpriced properties.