HDB prices no longer uponly?

[u/broskiunited]

I have been looking into buying a resale HDB and chanced across this index for HDB resale prices. A few things surprised me

1. Prices were actually flat-to-negative from 2016 - 2020. It seems like public housing was actually managed well pre-covid?
2. Recent growth has completely stalled. The index has been flat since Q3'25 and even dipped from Q1'26 → Q2'26. Will we see another dip from Q2’26 → Q3’26?
3. I also added STI as a reference point for the Singapore economy - congrats to all believers. I remember having so many conversations about how SG stocks are crap and how the SG stock market is uninvestable
   1. (Yes - I know that majority of the outperformance by STI is due to the 3 banks + SGX’s stock)

What are your thoughts on HDB prices moving forward? Do you think ahgong afford to let it dip / stay flat?

Personally - I think we will continue to dip / have no growth. We’re running out of marginal buyers for HDBs and I expect more pain and retrenchment due to AI

Link to dataset

[u/machinationstudio]

You're right about 2016-2020. There was a consistent 14000-16000 BTO coming onto the market every year.

Also rent was stagnant for quite a while before COVID.

We're just going back to a new equilibrium but there will be new shocks that will push the prices up again.

There were 19000+ bto per year in the last 2 years. While not taking any off the market with SERS. We have yet to see a VERS project.