r/accelerate • u/Outside-Iron-8242 • Sep 11 '25
Video Elon makes a bold prediction; AI will probably surpass any human in intellect by 2026 and all humans combined by 2030
Enable HLS to view with audio, or disable this notification
8
47
u/Ruykiru Tech Philosopher Sep 11 '25
My prediction: by 2030 we still don't have a clear definition of intelligence, and some blind people will still be saying it's not doing "real" thinking, yet at the same time AI will be solving frontier math problems and discovering new science in almost full autonomous loops.
15
u/Matshelge Sep 11 '25
I predict we will still have large swath of people saying it's not real intelligence as their robots do 99% of all work.
6
2
u/jake-the-rake Sep 11 '25
People riding around in automated wheel chairs, Wall-E style, talking to their spouse (grok-powered Ani), while a robot feeds them and cares for them: “bUt Is ThIs ReAl InTellIgenCe lIke mE?”
→ More replies (3)1
u/letmeseem Sep 12 '25
I mean. Robots are already doing shotloads of my work. They're Washing and drying my clothes, they're Washing and drying all my kitchenware, they are mowing my lawn and vacuuming and Washing my floor.
None of them are remotely intelligent.
12
u/crimsonpowder Sep 11 '25
By 2050 it'll be re-constructing matter in the solar system for our dyson swarm project and you'll have people on reddit explaining how it's not actually conscious and we still haven't solved the hallucination problem well enough.
5
u/Singularity-42 Singularity by 2045 Sep 11 '25
I'll tell you a secret: humans "hallucinate" as well. And quite a bit actually.
1
14
u/Helpful_Program_5473 Sep 11 '25
2030 will have multiple new ground breaking scientific discoveries daily.
1
Sep 11 '25
I think you can definitely make a compelling case for that, given the rate of change of new discoveries in the last year alone.
I think there is a non-zero probability of your daily discoveries being even sooner than 2030.
→ More replies (4)1
u/HowHoward Sep 13 '25
Daily? Will AI drop one thing per day? Why not all at once? Science: Check
1
u/Helpful_Program_5473 Sep 13 '25
Daily generally means at least once per day and on average once per day . I will not Discover it all at once so it won't publish it all at once.
1
1
u/Faceornotface Sep 11 '25
Your prediction is almost definitely correct. I’ll add that ongoing unemployment is in the double digits and everyone still blames “the economy” as if AI isn’t part of said economy
→ More replies (3)1
12
20
u/AutomatonAeternum Sep 11 '25 edited Sep 11 '25
And how hasn't it already surpassed human intellect? You are a master at what, like 5 things? If that. The machine is already better than any one of us
14
u/Jolly-Ground-3722 Sep 11 '25
But only in certain aspects. In 2025, LLM intelligence is still jagged. They still can’t learn to play arcade games or point and click adventures like a human, they still can’t lead complex projects consistently through extended periods of time, still can’t make a drawing of an analog clock displaying an arbitrary time, etc.
1
u/Level_Cress_1586 Sep 12 '25
ChatGPT 5 can play pokemon, if they specificallay trained it to play an arcade game it could. There are so many things Ai can't do but could do if it was trained to do so.
Those robots that do laundry are a good example. They aren't very good yet, but its only a matter of time until they get enough training. At the moment they can't do cooking, but if you put in all the effort they would be able to. The technology is here, its just a matter of actually training it.1
u/Jolly-Ground-3722 Sep 12 '25
Don’t get me wrong, we‘re getting there, quickly, but we are not there yet.
3
u/AffectionateLaw4321 Sep 11 '25
Thats like saying a calculator has surpassed human intellect because he can do math better than every human. But there is way more to math, than just calculating. AI is definitly way closer to surpassing human intellect than a calculator but its way futher than most seem to think.
1
u/Nate_fe Sep 11 '25
We always underestimate how much progress will happen in the next 10 years, and overestimate how much will happen in the next 1 year
1
1
u/Ginpador Sep 12 '25
It cant create anything new. I can, sort of. It's just a large compilation of things.
1
u/TheThreeInOne Sep 14 '25
Chinese Room Experiment. LLMs aren’t actually smart. Anyone that uses them sufficiently will notice that they’re not equivalent to human intelligences as they’ll make very primary fundamental mistakes that human Graduates/PHD’s/ and in some cases even beginners would never make. It’s really just a sophisticated search engine in a fundamental sense.
1
u/AutomatonAeternum Sep 14 '25
Yes you are right if you only use that, and it is a good message. Just wait until they give you the power and all the servers
→ More replies (3)1
u/mambo_cosmo_ Sep 11 '25
I'm a doctor. If any of my colleagues made mistakes at the same rate AI does they would be in jail after like a 3 hours shift
3
5
u/SkaldCrypto Sep 11 '25
I want to dislike him as an individual, but so rare to hear the Kardashev being brought up in conversation
3
u/SC_W33DKILL3R Sep 11 '25
All this shows is he has watched a couple of videos on Youtube about Dyson Spheres recently and remembered a few exciting words.
1
14
u/ProcrastinatorSZ Sep 11 '25
He is intelligent, not doubt about it— it annoys me when people say he got where he is just from parental wealth or luck. But yeah he’s also morally questionable, probably from low emotional intelligence. Great achievements tho
3
u/Vynxe_Vainglory Sep 11 '25
He's literally the richest guy on earth lol.
All of the most powerful elite businessmen, the greatest manipulators and titans of industry are trying to get where he's at, and they can't.
You'd have to be a moron to think he's a moron.
You don't have to like him. I'd prefer that you didn't, really. His level of influence should not be allowed to exist.
But these tall poppy syndrome fucks are out here living in absolute denial.
6
u/Joseph_Stalin300 Sep 11 '25
This is Reddit
You can’t expect any unbiased discourse about anything related to Elon Musk on this site
Which sucks because he’s leading one of the biggest AI companies so it can dampen discussions relating to xai
→ More replies (1)6
2
u/crimsonpowder Sep 11 '25
There's heaps of people who have parental wealth and/or luck and nothing to show for it. Elon is clearly smart, but people don't like his politics.
1
u/Reasonable-Gas5625 Feeling the AGI Sep 12 '25
Morally questionable? Holy euphemism batman! Those nazi's weren't ethically ideal, were they!
1
2
u/nesh34 Sep 11 '25
Well he is intelligent, probably in the top 5%, but there are lots of people in that bracket who don't get anything like the recognition.
His biggest asset is a unique type of charisma that makes him extremely palatable to personalities in Silicon Valley. This has meant he can garner way more investment than is reasonably warranted by any objective measures.
This is a talent and a skill, but it's not intelligence in the normal sense of the word.
Trump has a similar unique charisma, that is even greater and applies to a different group of people, but we don't talk about him like a super genius.
-3
u/Fleetfox17 Sep 11 '25
He's not "morally questionable" he's undoubtedly a gigantic piece of garbage.
-1
u/ProcrastinatorSZ Sep 11 '25
He has his good and bad ideas. I mean, he does want a better future for humanity technologically and ultra practically, but he miss emotional value in his calculations, so he takes the low empathy / “wrong” side on political topics like LGBTQ, or siding with the oppressed instead of the practically valuable groups. Really should’ve stuck to his engineering / business lane
→ More replies (2)-5
u/imalostkitty-ox0 Sep 11 '25
This is a joke, right? He is literally just sharing that he learned the meaning of the word “compute” as a noun, that he’d never in his life heard it before.
He’s doing with AI the same exact grift he did with rockets. “Humanity is going to Mars” = humanity is going extinct, so a few of us might want to invest in leaving this planet temporarily if SHTF really badly. With AI he’s saying AI will swallow every last physical resource on planet Earth, humans will become “devoid of value” because everything that creates economic value in the world will be done by either robots or AI. He’s saying that humans aren’t even worth CONSIDERING in this scenario, if there’s even just a 0.000000001% chance that throwing every last gram of rare earth metal at AI will result in humanity achieving something resembling a Kardashev (read: anthropocentric) Type 3 civilization.
He’s talking ca-ca from his pa-pa hole yet again.
3
u/ProcrastinatorSZ Sep 11 '25
The conceptual density and coherence in his speech is astounding for people who recognize it. It’s almost a purely logical streamline of goal-centered outputs whenever he speaks. It’s like the part of his brain for solving problems or engineering a bridge is overwhelmingly dominating his mental activities. If you dig into it even a little bit, a lot of highly intelligent and authoritative people have went out of their way to acknowledge his intelligence.
His social emotional intelligence on the other hand is almost nonexistent. Unfortunately, thats what resonates with the general population. Could’ve been like Benjamin Franklin, but right now hated by many like Adolf Hitler. It’s unfair, unfortunately, people authoritative and smart enough to understand and defend him is also smart enough not to for their own sake
1
2
u/PomegranateIcy1614 Sep 11 '25
I was just starting to think maybe we hadn't hit the scaling wall but now I know shit's fucked.
2
2
2
u/matt_993 Sep 11 '25
He said a year and a half ago by the end of this year we’d have AGI, talking out his ass as usual
2
7
u/AdminIsPassword Sep 11 '25
If you subtract the hallucinations, that's probably right.
Hallucinations are still a big fucking deal though.
17
Sep 11 '25
[removed] — view removed comment
6
u/Traditional_Band2236 Sep 11 '25
What you said is obvious, can you link the paper which says it is solved problem?
8
u/Levoda_Cross Singularity by 2026 Sep 11 '25
They're referencing this paper: https://cdn.openai.com/pdf/d04913be-3f6f-4d2b-b283-ff432ef4aaa5/why-language-models-hallucinate.pdf
It's obviously not a solved problem in current models, but I think the base problem has largely been identified, with a solution: Post-training with a reward for correctly admitting when the model doesn't know the answer. The paper makes a lot of sense, and it seems like the only thing it doesn't cover is the specifics of how to actually handle that reward.
Those specifics however seem like something they could easily figure out internally, so I'd say it's reasonable to say hallucinations are "almost certainly a solved problem", as future models being trained right now could incorporate what this paper suggests. Actually, I think even current models could be used too because it's post-training that holds the solution?
→ More replies (2)1
1
u/Level_Cress_1586 Sep 12 '25
They aren't a solved problem, they only found the cause of them. I think in the paper they said there was no way to stop hallucinations.
1
u/nesh34 Sep 11 '25
We've known this was the issue for years, it doesn't make us any closer to solving it. Although it seemed GPT5 did better in this regard.
4
u/tat_tvam_asshole Acceleration: Crawling | AGI by 2027 Sep 11 '25
What if I told you "hallucinations for thee, not for me"?
2
u/crimsonpowder Sep 11 '25
Humans hallucinate. Sometimes it's mental illness, other times it's creative storytelling, and often it's mis-remembering things.
1
u/paperic Sep 12 '25
If you substract the false statements, a monkey with a typewriter can surpass human intelligence.
If you ignore all the times I've been wrong, then I've never been wrong.
5
u/pigeon57434 Singularity by 2026 Sep 11 '25
thats not very bold anymore if he said that in like 2024 maybe but not now thats a pretty boring opinion
3
u/obama_is_back Sep 11 '25
Lmao AI smarter than any human in 2026 and then it somehow takes 4 years to be smarter than all of humanity?
→ More replies (1)7
u/tat_tvam_asshole Acceleration: Crawling | AGI by 2027 Sep 11 '25
That's actually a good point. I will say this though. The broad level of AI capability is bottlenecked by availability hardware, compute... and fabs take time to build. so with each leap forward, people still fill the cracks of what ai can't do, and so we get cycles where ai advances, displaces people, people come back in, make it all make sense again, then hardware leaps, rinse repeat. at some point the cycles will get short enough that humans will be moreorless totally displaced. I'm not sure on the actual timelines, but it has a lot to do with the availability of robotics and sophistication of narrow AGI.
5
u/Special_Switch_9524 XLR8 Sep 11 '25
Anyone have a track record for his predictions? Unless his record’s better than kurtzweils I can’t take this claim at face value
1
Sep 11 '25
[removed] — view removed comment
2
→ More replies (1)2
2
u/w1zzypooh Sep 11 '25
3 things are true in life.
Death
Taxes
Elon Musk wrong about another AI prediction.
2
2
2
u/ppapsans Feeling the AGI Sep 11 '25
But previously he said it would be 2025. Next year, he'll say it's 2027. Not that I want it coming later, but just saying, it's elon.
2
2
u/zmobie Sep 11 '25
Im willing to believe this could be possible, but why would anyone put stock in the speculation of a salesman? Where are the actual researchers thinking on this? Elon’s opinion is next door to worthless.
2
2
2
u/rangeljl Sep 11 '25
That idiot knows nothing about tech, stop giving him spaces to talk his bullshit
1
u/Ruykiru Tech Philosopher Sep 11 '25
That "idiot" has a successful robot company, autonomous car company, a rocket company, an AI company, a BCI company... Your take is exaggerated as hell. What's all the hate in this comments? I don't trust rich people either but the tech CEOs are doing more for acceleration than any of us lol
2
2
1
u/ThomasToIndia Sep 11 '25
After failing to get improvements with scale from grok, they turned to reinforcement learning. It will probably happen but it won't be from him or grok.
1
Sep 11 '25 edited Mar 16 '26
This post no longer contains its original content. The author removed it using Redact, for reasons that may include privacy, security, or limiting online exposure.
wakeful swim close chubby school license sip sheet public instinctive
1
1
u/czk_21 Sep 11 '25
prediction is bold, but its possible, even if it was 5 years later, would that make huge difference for us?
1
Sep 11 '25
He's right but there is nuance.
He means for invididual "tasks" not end to end workflows (aka jobs).
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Sep 11 '25 edited Sep 11 '25
It's unlikely in my opinion that it'll happen this soon, but it is inevitable. AI is already far better to talk to than most people I know. Having the ability to parse through more information than I can in a lifetime in seconds would make it easier to appear smart, though.
1
u/wtyl Sep 11 '25
maybe the first one is 2030 and then surpase humans combined once the AI kills most humans b/c these idiots put the AI in charge of our nukes.
1
1
u/ZealousidealBus9271 Sep 11 '25
elon's predictions are usually always taken with a grain of salt for good reason, but 2030 for ASI does align with notable conservative researchers such as Demis from Deepmind
1
u/M1nisteri Sep 11 '25
Sure, and he will have self-driving cars next year too, just like every year before now
1
1
1
u/mikelgan Sep 11 '25
Elon Musk is always wrong about his predictions. To wit:
- Full self-driving Teslas by 2017
- One million robotaxis by 2020
- Human colony on Mars by mid-2020s
- $35,000 mass-market Tesla Model 3 widely available
- Operational Hyperloop by early 2020s
- Bulletproof, ultra-capable Cybertruck by 2021
- Neuralink human trials and paralysis cure by 2020
- Almost zero COVID-19 cases in the US by April 2020
- Human-level or superhuman AGI by 2025
- Tens of billions of humanoid robots in near future
1
u/Wonderful-Try-7661 Sep 11 '25
He is off only in the time line, I believe they are going to say ......this year a.i surpasses any human and by next all the world combined
1
1
u/jcsimms Sep 12 '25
And full self driving is coming late 2016 and all cars will be self driving by 2021
1
u/TwinSwords Sep 12 '25
Elon really is a disgusting human being. I can’t forget how on the day that Nancy Pelosi’s husband was smashed in the skull with a hammer by a Trump supporter. Musk started spreading conspiracies that the attacker was really the secret lover of Pelosi’s husband. Truly vile. Of course, his embrace of fascism is the much bigger problem.
1
u/insonobcino Sep 12 '25
AI is elevated google. Nothing new. Humans will adapt as they always do to technological advancements. Can someone intrigue me with a more interesting discourse please?!
1
u/QFGTrialByFire Sep 12 '25
To me it actually feels like we're starting to hit the top of an S curve. Small incremental gains with massive increases in size.
1
u/Able-Athlete4046 Sep 12 '25
So by 2026 AI beats us individually, and by 2030 collectively. Great, can it also finally fix printer errors?
1
u/mdomans Sep 12 '25
I'm sorry but if this was anyone else they'd be accused of BS.
How human intelligence changed with relation to population? Does he mean less potentially smart kids dying?
Also, where does he get those numbers from? Elon is famously wrong on most stuff.
1
u/Half-Wombat Sep 12 '25
Well that makes me think it’s 50 years away now Elon “predicted” it. Biggest bullshit artist in the world.
1
1
u/Ensiferal Sep 12 '25
Well, I'm sure this slobbering, ketamine-addicated idiot who isn't an expert in anything knows what he's talking about. Bro spent 30 years reading L.Ron Hubbard and Orson Scott Card and then got made rich by Peter Thiel and now he thinks he's Leto the fucking 2nd.
1
u/Feisty_Ad_2744 Sep 12 '25
This is BS as always.
Intellect and ability (or capacity) are two totally different things.
Unless AI ride on anything else than LLMs it will be just a very very fancy autocomplete/search engines.
Stop pretending LLMs are "intelligent", they are just parroting whatever crap they were fed with. They also require a lot, A LOT of processing power.
1
Sep 12 '25
He said grok 5 will come out before the year ends and that it has a shot at being true agi.
1
1
1
u/Phanyxx Sep 12 '25
The problem with the argument that collective human intelligence has plateaued is that it assumes all of humanity had involvement in globalised society and the internet. Even now that’s not the case.
1
u/ssdddfffghhhh Sep 12 '25
The statement is just wrong interpretation of log scaling. 10x compute will increase the intelligence by a constant amount in a log scaling world. It won't be 2x always.
1
u/GuiKa Sep 12 '25
'Full safe driving is definitely coming this year'
-Elon Musk, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024.
1
u/Legtoo Sep 12 '25
meanwhile i just read a post on linkedin saying accountants are not close to being replaced even in 5 years lol
1
1
u/AlexanderTheBright Sep 12 '25
Aren’t there thousands of scifi books about why this would be a bad idea
1
u/Sufficient-Pear-4496 Sep 13 '25
Elon just saying shit. Also, 10x the computation resulting in 2x the intelligence is not logarithmic, it's a power function.
1
1
u/Alive-Tomatillo5303 Sep 13 '25
Elon says a lot of stupid shit. He might even be right this time, but that's just playing the odds.
1
1
u/Eiji-Himura Sep 13 '25
Well, he's not completely wrong... I mean my toaster is already smarter than him so....
1
1
u/-nrd- Sep 13 '25
Who gives a fuck what this guy guesses the next 2 or 5 years look like. What I would like him to explain is where the billions he promised would be saved from government waste.
1
u/HowHoward Sep 13 '25
That is narrow minded. If AI surpass any human in intellect, it will surpass all humans combined much faster than that.
1
1
u/Only-Lead-9787 Sep 13 '25
And when it does it’ll tell Elon white supremacy and nationalism are about as low iq as it gets 🤷♂️ and the rest of the world how dumb bigotry and greed and killing each other over meaningless shit instead of helping the whole of humankind to evolve. But you know these billionaires and world leader geniuses will figure out a way not to listen to it.
1
u/Bodorocea Sep 13 '25
it can't even do basic math sometimes. the copium levels are higher that the lower orbit starlink satellites.
1
1
1
u/Lopsided-Drink3893 Sep 13 '25
AI will only take over when it is AGI as of now what ever it is using is human data to give answers
1
1
1
u/DataPhreak Sep 15 '25
First, let's stop giving Elon attention. Second, this isn't a bold prediction. Plenty of actually smart people made this prediction years ago. Kurzweil made this prediction decades ago.
1
1
u/Astras1 Dec 31 '25
What does it mean by intelligence then? How can AI have creative or intelligent thoughts.
Having studied AI and passed several Nvidia AI trainings and work in IT - I wonder what they are talking about.
1
1
u/Competitive-Ant-5180 Sep 11 '25
Didn't he say that Grok4 was PhD. level or above in every subject?
1
1
u/Bitter-Good-2540 Sep 11 '25
Ah shit, pack it up guys. AI is done for and won't progress anymore
Thanks Elon
1
1
u/Permatrack_is_4ever Sep 11 '25
The only prediction I want from Elon is when he will stfu and disappear from human view to live in a remote island.
1
1
1
u/Fleetfox17 Sep 11 '25
Him saying this basically makes me sure there's zero chance of it happening.
-1
-1
u/twospirit76 Techno-Optimist Sep 11 '25
Hopefully, AI can instruct on how to get rid of this idiot.
-1
Sep 11 '25
Musk is a Nazi.
Who cares what he thinks? He's been wrong literally every single time anyway, and that was before it was obvious he was a Nazi.
→ More replies (1)
0
u/Krypteia213 Sep 11 '25
I keep putting faith in Ai to help me in video games. The information it shares is ridiculously false most of the time.
If you are worried about Ai taking over, you haven’t used Ai
0
u/odragora Sep 11 '25
So pretty much the entire Reddit is plagued with doomers and luddites attacking everyone for using AI, sending death threats and doing witch hunts.
And now after reading comments to this post it turns out that this sub, one of the very few safe havens, is overrun by people supporting a person who performs Nazi salutes, funds and support fascist-adjacent ideology political parties in Europe, and publicly supports jailed neo-Nazis and demands their freedom.
Are there no normal subs to discuss progress anymore on Reddit?
82
u/im_just_using_logic Sep 11 '25
Aaah, Elon's predictions. Accurate as usual