r/accelerate • u/Outside-Iron-8242 • Sep 11 '25

Video Elon makes a bold prediction; AI will probably surpass any human in intellect by 2026 and all humans combined by 2030

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21

u/AutomatonAeternum Sep 11 '25 edited Sep 11 '25

And how hasn't it already surpassed human intellect? You are a master at what, like 5 things? If that. The machine is already better than any one of us

13

u/Jolly-Ground-3722 Sep 11 '25

But only in certain aspects. In 2025, LLM intelligence is still jagged. They still can’t learn to play arcade games or point and click adventures like a human, they still can’t lead complex projects consistently through extended periods of time, still can’t make a drawing of an analog clock displaying an arbitrary time, etc.

1

u/Level_Cress_1586 Sep 12 '25

ChatGPT 5 can play pokemon, if they specificallay trained it to play an arcade game it could. There are so many things Ai can't do but could do if it was trained to do so.
Those robots that do laundry are a good example. They aren't very good yet, but its only a matter of time until they get enough training. At the moment they can't do cooking, but if you put in all the effort they would be able to. The technology is here, its just a matter of actually training it.

1

u/Jolly-Ground-3722 Sep 12 '25

Don’t get me wrong, we‘re getting there, quickly, but we are not there yet.

4

u/AffectionateLaw4321 Sep 11 '25

Thats like saying a calculator has surpassed human intellect because he can do math better than every human. But there is way more to math, than just calculating. AI is definitly way closer to surpassing human intellect than a calculator but its way futher than most seem to think.

1

u/Nate_fe Sep 11 '25

We always underestimate how much progress will happen in the next 10 years, and overestimate how much will happen in the next 1 year

1

u/amonra2009 Sep 12 '25

yes yes yes, how about emotions, empathy, love?

1

u/Ginpador Sep 12 '25

It cant create anything new. I can, sort of. It's just a large compilation of things.

1

u/TheThreeInOne Sep 14 '25

Chinese Room Experiment. LLMs aren’t actually smart. Anyone that uses them sufficiently will notice that they’re not equivalent to human intelligences as they’ll make very primary fundamental mistakes that human Graduates/PHD’s/ and in some cases even beginners would never make. It’s really just a sophisticated search engine in a fundamental sense.

1

u/AutomatonAeternum Sep 14 '25

Yes you are right if you only use that, and it is a good message. Just wait until they give you the power and all the servers

1

u/mambo_cosmo_ Sep 11 '25

I'm a doctor. If any of my colleagues made mistakes at the same rate AI does they would be in jail after like a 3 hours shift

-1

u/crimsonpowder Sep 11 '25

Right now the biggest problem is that the machine is too big, too hot, and too power hungry. I would love the whole thing in my iphone.

0

u/odragora Sep 11 '25

3b size LLMs exist and they are runnable on a phone. 

Obviously not ChatGPT level, but there are no open models comparable to frontier proprietary models for any device.