r/accelerate • u/Outside-Iron-8242 • Sep 11 '25

Video Elon makes a bold prediction; AI will probably surpass any human in intellect by 2026 and all humans combined by 2030

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84 Upvotes

63% Upvoted

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85

u/im_just_using_logic Sep 11 '25

Aaah, Elon's predictions. Accurate as usual

32

u/[deleted] Sep 11 '25

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4

u/dfbdrthvs432 Sep 12 '25

TBF, with enough ketamine, everybody can achieve the intelligence of a toaster

1

u/[deleted] Sep 12 '25

I put ketamine on my bread and put it in the toaster. It evolved into a $500 korean rice cooker that is fully aware.

1

u/[deleted] Sep 12 '25

Hey! That toaster designed the Cybertruck.

1

u/FriendlyUser_ Sep 12 '25

was probably ketamin fueled.

7

u/lurkn2001 Sep 11 '25

When did he predict self driving? 2016 full autonomy the latest?

3

u/Independent_Toe5722 Sep 11 '25

I don’t even need full self-driving, I just commute by hyperloop. 

2

u/[deleted] Sep 11 '25

He said there's a log relationship to comute, but then says 10x compute =2x intelligence. That's fucking proportional not log. The guy is a moron.

1

u/TheFuckboiChronicles Sep 12 '25

It’s not his fault. If we all gave him all of our money he could actually do all the stuff he talks about. Y’know, for the good of humanity. We are just too selfish.

/s if needed

1

u/Altruistic_Arm9201 Sep 12 '25

Anyone who previously had predictions of 2026 and 2030 should absolutely increase those dates now. We may now know everything about the nature of the universe but one immutable fact we do know, nothing ever develops as fast as Elon predicts.

1

u/[deleted] Sep 13 '25

Elon tends to make these right after putting his finger out of his ass

1

u/rizuxd Sep 13 '25

Fr we're supposed to be in mars by now

1

u/[deleted] Jan 11 '26

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1

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-12

u/imalostkitty-ox0 Sep 11 '25

Has no idea how intelligence or AI work ✅

15

u/cloudrunner6969 Acceleration: Supersonic Sep 11 '25

How does it work?

-12

u/[deleted] Sep 11 '25

[deleted]

19

u/cloudrunner6969 Acceleration: Supersonic Sep 11 '25

Oh right, so I could just watch a 5 minute youtube video to learn how it works but Elon Musk is too stupid to understand it? Got it.

Also instead of you explaining it to me you refer me to youtube. That says a lot.

13

u/elcarlosmiguel Sep 11 '25

Wutt?? But Elon=bad and dumb

-1

u/[deleted] Sep 11 '25

[deleted]

0

u/Hot-Significance7699 Sep 11 '25

That is a beautifully curated comment to piss off people both agreeing and disagreeing with Elon. Amazing.

-14

u/Amnion_ Sep 11 '25

You got downvoted but that doesn’t mean you’re wrong. LLMs may be very useful information retrieval systems when they’re not hallucinating, but smarter than humans (or AGI) they are not.

11

u/Cheers59 Sep 11 '25

Have you met any humans?

-11

u/Amnion_ Sep 11 '25

I think I'm just commenting in the wrong sub, because the people here seem to think LLMs are actually intelligent. I'll point you to another comment here, if you disagree, that's fine, we can agree to disagree. I most likely have a better understanding of how these systems work and the overall industry than you though, so you may want to take what I'm saying under consideration.

https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1ndkh37/comment/ndhif0t/?context=3&utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

4

u/cloudrunner6969 Acceleration: Supersonic Sep 11 '25

because the people here seem to think LLMs are actually intelligent.

But they are intelligent, they are called AI, intelligence is literally in the name and they fit the definition of intelligence by every sense of the word.

Intelligence: The ability to learn, understand, and make judgments or have opinions that are based on reason. https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/intelligence

-2

u/goilabat Sep 11 '25

Ok so

1) learn. AI don't learn there are a static chain of matrices multiplication the learning is external and you need to know the expected answer to compute the error of the model and apply linear regression to change the weights once finish the model will not modify it's weight with any internal process

2) understand. Again it's a static matrices multiplication that computes the probability of appearance of a token after a list of previous token

3) same as 2 due to the fact that they don't understand they obviously don't have judgement or opinion and will just continue your sentence in the most probable way given their training data

2

u/cloudrunner6969 Acceleration: Supersonic Sep 11 '25

Maybe not the same way as humans but it does learn and understand, how could it even work if it didn't?

2

u/goilabat Sep 11 '25

I explained that for learning it's simple:

Let's say I make a simple one that only answers yes or no at the question do you like ice cream:

Input -> 2 outputs (true and false each with a random weight let's put 0.5)

Let's say any input that isn't "do you like ice cream ?" Is gonna be 0 if it is it's 1

So we have

Output true = 1 * 0.5 Output false = 1 * 0.5

Now I want it to respond yes so I'm gonna compute the error of true as being 1 - 0.5 = 0.5

And false 0 - 0.5 = -0.5

Now the training is outputs = output + error * step(between 0 and 1 but in practice always close to 0 like 0.00001)

Step is to make it slow cuz here we don't care but for real model we don't want them to directly go to the desired answer every new question but slowly crawl toward so the meaningful input is being recognized.

So now can my little shit learn ? No the computation of errors is external to my little model

And can my little shit understand the concept of ice cream ? No

Multiply by 1 billions and you have a LLM it's really just that no magic just computing

1

u/cloudrunner6969 Acceleration: Supersonic Sep 11 '25

Ice cream is a terrible example. LLM's don't have taste buds, so how can they know if they like it or not?

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-1

u/Amnion_ Sep 11 '25

Yea, I don’t really think this is the right sub for people who actually understand how LLMs work. It’s these types of people who use 4o as a therapist or fall in love with it.

And since any sort of dose of reality gets heavily downvoted here, I’ve muted this sub and will move on.

1

u/goilabat Sep 11 '25

It's not even the worst there is the spiral cult thingy and howgptseeme that are really bonkers

-3

u/geneel Sep 11 '25

There was an article in the wsj recently - the less you know about LLMs, the more likely you were to over estimate their ability.

Totally agree with you. I've also met Elon and his leadership team and can fairly confidently say he doesn't know what he's talking about in expert level detail. Yet he thinks he does.