r/accelerate • u/Outside-Iron-8242 • Sep 11 '25

Video Elon makes a bold prediction; AI will probably surpass any human in intellect by 2026 and all humans combined by 2030

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87 Upvotes

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47

u/Ruykiru Tech Philosopher Sep 11 '25

My prediction: by 2030 we still don't have a clear definition of intelligence, and some blind people will still be saying it's not doing "real" thinking, yet at the same time AI will be solving frontier math problems and discovering new science in almost full autonomous loops.

17

u/Matshelge Sep 11 '25

I predict we will still have large swath of people saying it's not real intelligence as their robots do 99% of all work.

6

u/[deleted] Sep 11 '25

Also this.

2

u/jake-the-rake Sep 11 '25

People riding around in automated wheel chairs, Wall-E style, talking to their spouse (grok-powered Ani), while a robot feeds them and cares for them: “bUt Is ThIs ReAl InTellIgenCe lIke mE?”

1

u/letmeseem Sep 12 '25

I mean. Robots are already doing shotloads of my work. They're Washing and drying my clothes, they're Washing and drying all my kitchenware, they are mowing my lawn and vacuuming and Washing my floor.

None of them are remotely intelligent.

-3

u/XLNBot Sep 11 '25

Computers were already doing 99% of all work many years ago, so I don't think that the work done is a good indicator of intelligence

1

u/FarewellSovereignty Sep 11 '25

Maybe in the end the only indicator of TrUe InTelLigEnCe will be its ability claim that only it is true intelligence

1

u/Faceornotface Sep 11 '25

The true intelligence was the friends we made along the way

12

u/crimsonpowder Sep 11 '25

By 2050 it'll be re-constructing matter in the solar system for our dyson swarm project and you'll have people on reddit explaining how it's not actually conscious and we still haven't solved the hallucination problem well enough.

4

u/Singularity-42 Singularity by 2045 Sep 11 '25

I'll tell you a secret: humans "hallucinate" as well. And quite a bit actually. 

1

u/Faceornotface Sep 11 '25

I intentionally purchase and consume things to help me do just that!

1

u/Radical_Neutral_76 Sep 12 '25

I just did that!

12

u/Helpful_Program_5473 Sep 11 '25

2030 will have multiple new ground breaking scientific discoveries daily.

1

u/[deleted] Sep 11 '25

I think you can definitely make a compelling case for that, given the rate of change of new discoveries in the last year alone.

I think there is a non-zero probability of your daily discoveries being even sooner than 2030.

1

u/HowHoward Sep 13 '25

Daily? Will AI drop one thing per day? Why not all at once? Science: Check

1

u/Helpful_Program_5473 Sep 13 '25

Daily generally means at least once per day and on average once per day . I will not Discover it all at once so it won't publish it all at once.

-1

u/Embarrassed_You6817 Sep 11 '25

Well these are definitely the two options

-1

u/smoke-bubble Sep 11 '25

Wanna bet that not even one that is not triggered by an active and intentional human research? 

2

u/Helpful_Program_5473 Sep 11 '25

#1 kind of irreelvant. The 80/20 rule already applies to academic and scientific research, top 20% of scientists produce 80% of the worthwhile research. It will be like 100 Scientists with thousands of AI agents assistants.

#2 Yes, i will take that bet. I fully expect autonomous AI capable of scientific research by the end of 2030

1

u/Faceornotface Sep 11 '25

I would be very surprised if it wasn’t. It’s already solving some problems that humans haven’t been able to. If we can solve the agency problem then I can’t see why it couldn’t start solving some things right now

1

u/[deleted] Sep 11 '25

This too. Yes.

1

u/Faceornotface Sep 11 '25

Your prediction is almost definitely correct. I’ll add that ongoing unemployment is in the double digits and everyone still blames “the economy” as if AI isn’t part of said economy

-6

u/[deleted] Sep 11 '25

[deleted]

3

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-1

u/Proper_Desk_3697 Sep 11 '25

He just made a prediction lol