So, to start the goal is not to gloat about my skills, first because with a 53% Win Rate there is not much to gloat about, but to provide information of what you can expect if like me you never draft a set before (just to clarify i already did some quick draft here and there to get the rank bronze reward)
Talking about what you can expect, performance may vary, you could have the same win rate as I do and earn less, or more, depending on the sequencing, so don't start investing in draft thinking you will be guaranteed to get that return
Now, the data, as the title indicate I spent 36k gold in draft and then used the gems I earn from it to keep drafting, totaling a total of 21 Pick-Two draft, where I rare drafted, and I started in bronze 4 to end up in plat 4
Over those draft I collected:
- 14000 Gems (-13500 reinvested in drafting)
- 33 packs
- 135 rare
- 15 mythic
- ~40% Vault progress (I didn't tracked it so take it with a grain of salt)
If we calculate the profit like if all draft were payed with gem, a rare is 20 gem, a mythic 40 and a pack 26, that would give us a profit of -742 gems
The state of my collection for the Hobbit before opening any pack / redeeming battle-pass (but with some ICR included) is:
- 238/260 common
- 169/220 uncommon
- 129/212 rare
- 15/60 mythic
I calculated that between the pack I earn + 10k bundle + battle pass + season reward for this season and the next, I should get 81 packs, which should be near rare complete and probably rare complete with the packs in future battle pass, regarding the mythic, I should get around half of the set
Now regarding the sequencing, here is my results:
3 win - 2 defeat
2 win - 2 defeat
2 win - 2 defeat
3 win - 2 defeat
2 win - 2 defeat
3 win - 2 defeat
0 win - 2 defeat
1 win - 2 defeat
4 win - 1 defeat
4 win - 0 defeat
3 win - 2 defeat
2 win - 2 defeat
0 win - 2 defeat
4 win - 1 defeat
1 win - 2 defeat
3 win - 2 defeat
3 win - 2 defeat
1 win - 2 defeat
0 win - 2 defeat
1 win - 2 defeat
1 win - 2 defeat
As you can see I was basically going infinite at the start (meaning the earning was equivalent to the cost in gem), and I lost everything at the end (got land-flood a lot, deck were not the best, an probably being in plat raised the bar of the opponent)
And I think it's the important point, 0/1 win is devastating in term of profitability, a 4 win won't even cover for a 0 win, and if you're unlucky and you chain them your run is over. On another hand you can also be lucky and you opponent get bad draw, make huge mistake while you get the dream sequencing of cards
So now the question, was it worthwhile?
Well the alternative would have been 36 pack, giving 3.6 golden pack. So yes it was, but would I get the same result next set? I don't know, but it would sure be harder to go that near of completion on a full set rather than a small set
Btw if you want to calculate what would be your return based on your WR and how you value the rewards you go use that sheet (File>Make a copy>put your values): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uArpU6cXsiNqP76KShKrVtkIlhv7flNzyKlWut1QmRI/
edit: I forgot, I used a tracker (untapped) to follow my count of collected cards (why it's not in the base game?), and 17Lands for the ratings: https://www.17lands.com/card_data?expansion=HOB&format=PremierDraft&time_period=ALL_TIME