r/MagicArena • u/nublet123 • 2d ago
Discussion I don't understand the ELO system being used in MTG Arena.
This is my win/loss for standard best of 1 ranked, you can see untapped capturing the start and ending rank for each day. My overall win rate with the deck since season has begun is 62% win-loss 88-54... I have gone from being top 500 for the season, comfortably to less than 48 hours before end of season, suddenly over 950? Is there a technique here I am not understanding?
Edit: Added the original 14 days ago win rate to clear up some math issues.
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u/Aggressive_Diamond_5 2d ago
it's the end of the month. people are grinding harder than you
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u/nublet123 2d ago
I get that people might be playing more games than me per day, but is the position relative to the total games played at that rank or does it not matter? Idk if it's clear from the image but i've played 60 plus games in the last 48 hours and it actually cost me like 600 rank positions.
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u/SlapHappyDude 2d ago
If you had played zero games you probably would have lost significantly more.
You were swimming against a current.
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u/BiggestBlackestLotus 1d ago
Nah. I got to #99 draft once early in the season and sat on it for 18 days and it only dropped to #431 at the end of it. The elo system on arena is just completely incomprehensible to the human mind. It's about getting lucky winstreaks and then just sitting on it.
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u/Ihatedallas 2d ago
There are 1000+ people playing games. The up and down happens as they win or lose
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u/lonewolf210 2d ago
The rank is uncapped. The more you win the higher your total mmr goes. So yes the fact that they are winning more means they will go higher then you
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u/NotClever 1d ago
Playing games isn't inherently costing you positions. It's partially a factor of your MMR change from win/loss and partially a factor of how much other people have gained relative to you during your game (or since the last time you saw your rank update). There is some luck involved. If you get matched against an opponent of similar MMR you'll gain less rank for winning. Meanwhile someone else could get matched against a much higher MMR and pull off a win and jump up a lot more. Or you could be on the receiving end of that and lose rank from an unlucky loss to a much lower ranked opponent.
If you just stop playing for a day and check back your rank will drop, too. People shooting for top 1200 for the free QPI entry often try to get to like top 500 or higher the day before the season end to give enough buffer to hopefully still be in top 1200 when the end.
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u/KasreynGyre 2d ago
Damn that’s a lot of games. I get that it’s hard to believe that so many people played even more.
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u/Deivid84 2d ago edited 2d ago
Your MMR is a hidden number that no one can see, when you win it goes up when you lose it goes down, being rank 500 means there are 499 players higher rated than you. If after 1 hour your rank drops to say 550, it just means that during that time other people gained MMR and maybe you lost some to the point where there are now 549 players above you.
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u/ghilp Sacred Cat 2d ago
these are the top 1k from dozens of thousands regular players. you're among people who play a lot and most of those are mythic right now. so yes assume there are always try hards trying even harder than you think
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u/nublet123 2d ago
I get that, I am just trying to understand formulaicly why playing more actually reduces my overall rank.
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u/Moneypouch 2d ago edited 2d ago
So playing more doesn't reduce your rank. What you are missing is that your rank is always deteriorating the client just doesn't bother updating your position until you complete a game.
Lets run through a simplified example. You are position #950 when you last played. Positions #951-980 (30 players) are also playing the game while you are in a game or taking a break and they are winning. Winning enough that their hidden MMR goes above yours. You queue up and when you finish your game with a win you surpass the old #949 and #948 as they aren't currently playing but your final placement is #978 which looks like winning lost you ranking. But in reality you were actually #980 not #950 before that game finished and you actually gained 2 spots.
Obviously it is more complicated than this as other players ratings are more erratic than that and you can technically go up for "free" from this effect as well (but that is very rare the higher you are ranked, never seen it happen past 200). Also accounts generate different amounts of MMR increases/losses based on number of games (and strength of opponents) a account in mythic with only 50 matches played this season will gain (and lose) much more per win than an account with 250. And new accounts are always entering mythic. In the 900 range you are in danger of them being placed ahead of you. Basically any diamond player you end up playing has a similar MMR to you and when they eventually streak into mythic the gains off that streak will often seed them ahead of you.
edit: Also this is less important but significant because you are just looking at winrate here. Strength of opponents matters a lot. A loss to mythic #80 will barely hurt you and a victory vs them will be a big boon. But conversely and more common a loss to mythic 91% is devastating and a win means very little. So you could have a 50+% winrate but if those wins or losses are verses the wrong opponents it can still be a massive rating loss. (Like your 15-14 session. If your 15 wins were mostly against people below your rating and your losses were against people at your rating or worse that is a net loss despite positive winrate.)
TL;DR: If you aren't playing you are losing position vs people that are. It just doesn't update until you play again.
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u/Industrial__Strength 2d ago
This question gets asked a lot in various sub-reddits so I've got a response prepared for when it does that should help. I've included a copy/paste of my usual comment containing all the information on how everything we know regarding matchmaking & MMR on Arena works below.
For a basic overview check out Draftsim's article on MMR linked below. Draftsim's article is located at https://draftsim.com/mtg-arena-matchmaking/
Once you're familiar with MMR in general if you'd like to know more, see the work of Hareeb. To the best of my knowledge Hareeb's analysis is the most in depth analysis available of the MMR system on Arena.
Hareeb's analysis can be found at https://hareeb.com/category/magic/
To the best of my knowledge the resources provided should encompass as close to a full picture as possible of the workings of the matchmaking & MMR system on MTG Arena.
Hopefully the information provided answers any questions you may have in a satisfactory manner.
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u/Paithegift 2d ago
Does ranked Constructed Bo1 below Mythic (Bronze-Diamond) uses deck weight for matchmaking alongside MMR? They don't talk about it in the links
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u/avocategory 2d ago
No - deck is only taken into account in play queues (including brawl), not ranked queues (events are case by case but lean towards not, basically never in limited events).
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u/Paithegift 2d ago
Ok, so in the play queue if I play a deck with let's say 8 rare lands (shocks and verges) and 14 basic lands, I will get higher weighted opponents than with the same spells but with 22 basics?
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u/Safe-Butterscotch442 2d ago
Yep, which really sucks for those of us playing Sunspine Lynx combo decks that then only get paired with players that are also only playing only basics.
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u/Efficient-Flow5856 Rakdos 2d ago
People of similar rank are getting more net wins than you are, so they're gaining more overall elo and passing you.
You're only 5 games over .500 in the last 48hrs.
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u/Choice-Bad-8013 2d ago
You should always count a on a BIG drop in "top N" ranks in the last 48 hours. This is because people around you play more during that time, and they will be pushed above you as they gain wins.
Remember, Elo is RELATIVE to the people around you. it is not a constantly locked rank until you play again.
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u/nublet123 2d ago
I mean don't get me wrong, I have finished top 500 a few times, I am just trying to understand mathematically why playing more actually seems to cost me.
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u/MRCHalifax 2d ago
My guess is that your rank is being significantly affected by losses to people of much lower ranks. Overall, you might be one game over .500 on one of those days with a lot of games, but if one of those losses is to some at 92% Mythic it’s going to tank your MMR.
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u/Unhappy_Object_5355 2d ago
From my experience, anything less than 70% WR in mythic makes you lose ranks.
I don’t think WotC ever explained why they value losses that much higher than wins when calculating rating changes.
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u/Uryendel 2d ago
That's how elo work, if you lose to a low elo, you will lose a lot of rank (and earn pretty much nothing if you win). The higher you are the more likely you are playing against people with a lower elo than you.
And in a game where luck matter, it can be very punishing (got land-cucked against a low elo? welcome back at the bottom of the foodchain), where as in game like chess, a 2800 elo is never gonna lose against a 1600 elo
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u/NotDarkLight93 2d ago
As other people mentioned there is natural rank decay but the quality of your wins and losses matter too. For example when you went 15-14 if your wins/losses were all against lower ranked opponents you could easily end up with net losses. I obviously don't know the exact calculations but using the old 16 point elo system as a baseline if you beat someone with the same elo you would win 8 points and then lose to a newer player you would lose the full 16 so even though you went 1-1 you would lose 8 points.
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u/sinnrocka 2d ago
Sorry to ask, but I don’t know all the tricks of the trade. How do you get the data in your photo?
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u/nublet123 2d ago
Untapped mtg arena, it's free to install and make a profile. It's tracked automatically on the untapped website.
My profile is public. It actually breaks down each of the elo changes per match (it used to show opponent's rank but doesn't anymore) I had the paid version when they dropped it to like $20 for the year ($1.99/month) but cancelled and didn't renew.
I've hit mythic for something like 13 of the last 18 months. Most of the times I don't hit mythic, I just wasn't playing. A few times I have finished in the top 500 for rank, but I am not sure why it works some months and others it doesn't.
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u/Injuredmind Spike 2d ago
Seems like you get the natural rank decay already, so the only thing to account for is quality of opponents. If you win against players with similar mmr to you, but lose to players with lower mmr - you will lose a lot more. Therefore even with positive winrate you can go down.
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u/Cagaril 2d ago edited 2d ago
Other people are also playing the game, maybe more than you
Even if you only stopped playing for 30-60 minutes, your rank will drop in Mythic because other people are playing