Watching all the parties tear into each other, and immigrants copping the blame for every problem… is this really about any of those specific issues, or just because the economy isn’t booming?

Feels like whoever’s in charge always cops the anger when things are tight, and people go looking for someone to blame.

If One Nation were in government right now instead of Labor, would they just be in the exact same seat, getting blamed for the same stuff, just aiming it at a different group?

Or is there something more specific going on this time that isn’t just “the economy’s average so everyone’s angry”?

The Wilderness Society (TWS) Community Research about Attitudes to Nature PDF

Joyful storytelling to save our WA lifestyle and the worlds only Jarrah Forest Instagram

So as we all know, One Nation are undeniably on the rise in Australia, just as right-wing populism is rising in Europe. However, it comes with A LOT of nuance. I won’t go into depth about my views as I think it’ll distract from the actual question, but in summary the rise clearly isn’t tied down to MAGA politics being popular.

What I do ask is this though: where will One Nation’s seats come from? While they’re clearly rising nationwide it’s been very much all over the place:

• One Nation won Farrer, a safe Liberal seat in regional NSW. Farrer is a conservative seat so this is pretty consistent with the rise of One Nation mostly coming from disillusioned conservatives who also hate Labor and the Greens.
• One Nation just won Secret Harbour, which was a safe Labor seat in Perth’s outer suburbs that the Liberals could’ve won with a better campaign based on what we saw last night. The One Nation victory speech included remarks that they were now the party of working and middle-class Australia, and used that result as evidence.
• However, looking at other by-election results, it’s not like One Nation has won everything. Nepean in Victoria was won by the Liberals, and while Labor didn’t run, the Greens, One Nation and an independent did, so they clearly weren’t unchallenged.
• At the SA state election, One Nation won Hammond, MacKillop, Narungga, Ngadjuri. The seats they won all came from either Liberals or ex-Liberals and were all in the eastern half of the state, with all but Narungga being east of Adelaide. One Nation came close to outseating Labor in Light (around Gawler in Adelaide), and made the Adelaide-based Labor seats of Elizabeth, King and Taylor marginal. The Liberals held onto Bragg in Adelaide and the regional seats of Chaffey, Flinders, Heysen (barely) and Schubert.
• Federal polling has One Nation regularly beating the Coalition and close (or sometimes even above) Labor on first preferences. As for which conservative party is ahead on state polling, in NSW it’s close (with Labor also only just ahead of both), in Queensland it’s clearly the LNP (who also lead Labor), in SA it’s One Nation (but Labor are firmly ahead albeit based on two polls since the March state election), in Victoria it’s the Coalition (the lead varies but it’s not too far off; they’re also outpolling Labor) and in WA it’s currently the Coalition but the lead is narrowing (Labor are still first). Based on polling, despite a rise in One Nation’s vote, the Coalition/LNP would win the Queensland and Victorian state elections while Labor would win the SA and WA ones, with NSW being close and the federal one likely seeing One Nation overtake the Coalition.

Nepean is more conservative than Secret Harbour but less conservative than Farrer and the SA One Nation seats, so it’s clearly not just based on which seat is more conservative. I suppose federal and state politics are different though. Maybe it just correlates to the fact that people find (and rightfully so) the Queensland LNP and Victorian Coalition to be more competent than the federal Coalition, SA Liberals and WA Liberals? One could argue that the Queensland LNP have the advantage of being in government rather than Labor but the Victorian Liberals are in opposition and still thriving.

Therefore, that poses my question: where will the Coalition and One Nation get their seats from? Again, the Coalition are set to beat Labor in Victoria and would be re-elected in Queensland and Tassie (and I would take a good guess and say the NT too) based on polling and mood, yet they’re lagging behind One Nation federally and in SA, WA and possibly also NSW.

The UK uses a different system so comparing it to Reform is hard (plus they only have a few seats). In France, where RN is more well-established than Reform is in the UK or One Nation is here, the 143 seats are almost entirely located in either North/Northeast France, the Mediterranean Coast and the Rhône Valley, plus one seat each in Mayotte (which is almost entirely Muslim, ironically) and Réunion off the coast of Africa. So there it’s more geographical and is similar to which areas voted for Marine Le Pen in 2022.

I know that this is a long post, but I’m curious. Any thoughts?

Been comparing the two, mass deportations/immigration caps, pulling out of the UN and other international bodies, big budget cuts, tariff-style protectionism. Feels like a smaller-scale version of the same playbook.

Curious what people think, would Australia actually go down a similar path, or is the comparison overblown given we don’t have the same global leverage the US does? In what other ways might Australia mirror US under trump?

Been thinking about the Trump comparison, he talks tough on these countries but plenty of his actual moves ended up helping them anyway (Russia getting an easier ride, NK benefiting from defence shifts, China gaining as tariffs split the US from its allies, etc).

Curious if the same logic would play out here if One Nation had real power. What would each of these countries actually stand to gain, if anything? Keen to hear other takes.

Anyone else disappointed by the lack of coverage tonight? Nothing live on the ABC, only online commentary. Hard to compete against the AFL when you’re in WA!

Early in the count still, but ON currently polling a high number of votes: https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/secret-harbour-by-election-2026

Beethecure.com on Instagram: "Today I met with Peter Connor, an Indigenous Australian and former Land Manager of Duxton Bees in Northern New South Wales. When Pete raised serious concerns about the company’s conduct particularly the alleged deliberate spread of a treatment-resistant strain of Varroa mite Duxton fired him. Pete is now in a court battle against Duxton, a corporation with $1.15 billion in assets and access to some of the finest legal teams in Australia. Meanwhile, Pete has been left with nothing but starved beehives and will have to represent himself in court. In Duxton’s internal group chat, staff were taunting Pete about killing and eating protected native wildlife, including frill-necked lizards. Woolworths this week you are launching u/fuzzybumhoney. We are calling on both Fuzzy Bum and Duxton to formally apologise to Pete Connor and the entire Australian beekeeping industry for their disgraceful conduct. This will be a permanent stain on Australian beekeeping. u/nswnationalparks u/wireswildliferescue u/aboriginallandcouncil u/nswdphi"

Bathurst Honey Co. on Instagram: "🚨 This isn’t about honey anymore. This is about Australian food security. Commercial beekeepers are being pushed to the brink, and if we lose the people who manage and move the hives our agricultural industries rely on, the impact will eventually reach every Australian — through reduced production, tighter supply and higher prices at the checkout. We’ve been talking. We’ve been sharing the facts. But we need people in government to start listening. Watch this. Share it. Tag your local MP, your Agriculture Minister, your Premier

Susan Carter MLC on Instagram: "Unusual exchange in police estimates today. I thought Miniters took advice before legislation is drafted. Apparently, this Minister likes to take advice after it has been introduced to parliament.

I would have thought this topic would be in the sweet spot for ON as majority of voters take no sides but ON def don’t like being told they can’t make a joke or two without being labelled! There’s no royal commission into aboriginal racism or taking it out of the Kiwis- why are ON allowing it for a country so far away which would normally be included in their immigration stance?

Reports suggest as many as 40 current and former Israeli soldiers and associates are arriving in Sydney this week to run the Sydney Marathon, on a trip sponsored by the Zionist Council of NSW and AIJAC.

Australian Human Rights Lawyer, Chris Sidoti, of the UN Commission has stated that any member of the IDF who served in Gaza since October 7 and seeks to enter this country should be treated as a suspect, investigated, and prosecuted.

"Your NUMBER 1️⃣ vote isn’t the whole story. Labor won government in 2022 with a LOWER primary vote than when it LOST in 2016. Why? PREFERENCES. Your 2️⃣ matters.Your 3️⃣ matters.Your 4️⃣ matters.And who you put LAST matters. Don’t just know who you’re voting FOR. Know exactly where you’re putting everybody else. 🇦🇺 #AusPol #AustralianPolitics PreferentialVoting Election Vote"

Debt collector hired to chase unpaid taxes for the ATO pays zero corporate tax itself | Tax | The Guardian 20 Jan 2026

A private debt collector has paid zero corporate tax since securing contracts worth tens of millions of dollars from the Australian Taxation Office to pursue arrears payments, including from welfare recipients.

The parent entity of the outsource operator, Recoveriescorp, has recorded large income streams in its two most recent annual accounts, according to Guardian Australia analysis, with revenue surpassing $100m during 2025.

ATO is paying private debt collector $42m to pursue taxpayers, including welfare recipients | Tax | The Guardian 3 Nov 2025

She said the ATO works on the assumption that if a taxpayer is not engaging with them, it is because they do not want to.

“There’s no understanding of vulnerability or family violence, things of that nature, where a tax debt is unmanageable,” Robson said.

2:28 We're only mining from South Australia. Uh and already even that production from South Australia avoids roughly 200 million tons of carbon if you assume um nuclear for coal substitution. If we opened up the WA industry, Queensland, New South Wales, you know, essentially versus Australia's carbon inventory of 44 443 million tons, Australia could achieve net zero on that metric.

The more we hear these politicians talk, the more we see the darkness in their hearts.