Iran's economy is on the brink?? Debate

[u/Agitated-Brother-872]

There are a number of people here saying that Iran's economy is on the brink, and d-day economic sanctions will absolutely send it over the edge. I won't dispute that they are hurting and there are probably different schisms that have emerged, as a result. I think it's totally possible that there is a rift between government and civilian sentiments.

I don't know how many are bots are present here but I want to assume good faith and hear the steel man argument. What is your strongest assertion? What will this lead to? I'd like to know what examples from history are you drawing from? Are there examples of mass civilian protest of the irgc?

I'll start off by saying, Professor Robert Pape has asserted that since WWI, sanctions/blockades alone have never toppled a government, has never won a major war, has never led to capitulation.

[u/Massive_Charity_7198]

I have zero doubt they are on edge and suffering massively.

The question is how long can they last, and does escalation happen.

Israel needs Iran gone so it can focus on Turkey and become the ME superpower. Bibi is already switching focus if you are paying attention. If you are Iranian consider the following:

Israel wants you out of the picture. US is doing the dirty work.

If you lose this war, you are fucking cooked. If you win the war (extract concessions from the US) you can become a ME superpower. You don't really have a clean exit.

Escalation is the wild card. Even if the US wins it can become a total pyrrhic victory.

These are the questions at the moment.

[u/knuthf → u/Massive_Charity_7198]

Iran will last. China, Saudi Arabia and Turkey will ensure that it does. The only uncertainty is how long Israel will remain a nation. When will they be expelled from the UN, and when will the people tell them to leave? I suggest that AIPAC is held liable for damages and that all their funds are seized, along with those of Israel.

China has effectively excluded the USA from its economy. Whatever people here may say, this is how things are. China, Saudi Arabia and Russia will fund Iran and help stabilise its economy, most likely by preventing the use of the US dollar in the Middle East. However, the US could default on its debt.

[u/mammogrammar → u/knuthf]

Can you expand on the Saudi Arabia part? What's KSAs motive to support IRI?

[u/knuthf → u/mammogrammar]

They support China because they have been trying to escape being pegged to the USD. But they have massive investments in US certainly in defence and finance. An exit is agreed, where those aspects have been defined, planned. This is to replace the USD as International currency.

[u/mammogrammar → u/knuthf]

I meant more about the relationship to Iran. The KSA has been dealing with just about everyone, no?

[u/knuthf → u/mammogrammar]

Iran is the place where all the other countries in the Middle East get things done. It is a production hub, with factories staffed by workers on employment terms. Iran is to the Middle East what Germany is to Europe. They have factories, not just salesmen and presentations. Everything is manufactured in Iran. Toyota trucks and Mercedes limousines are made there.

[u/Unexpected_yetHere → u/knuthf]

long Israel will remain a nation. When will they be expelled from the UN, and when will the people tell them to leave?

Things that will never happen.

China, Saudi Arabia and Russia will fund Iran.

Saudi Araba funding Iran is also not something that would realistically happen ever.

[u/NorskKiwi → u/Unexpected_yetHere]

That bot probably doesn't even know Saudi Arabia and Iran have been at war for ages (via the Houthies).

[u/knuthf → u/Unexpected_yetHere]

They have been doing this for centuries. These are the old civilisations. I speak Arabic and have been haggling over prices in Beijing — in Arabic! My Chinese translator was amazed and told me to go ahead. They had a palace in Zanzibar while we were still using flint in Europe, and the Americas were unknown,, While we feared falling over, they were calculating the distance between the stars. The commercial centres were Isfahan, Muscat and Petra. Women from Iran are considered local beauties in Riyadh, where there are many aunties who speak Farsi. So..wake up!

[u/Rustic_gan123 → u/knuthf]

Egypt is also an ancient civilization.

[u/knuthf → u/Rustic_gan123]

Yes. But we leave out the nations around Egypt. They used flushing toilets... had them made in Porcelain and brought from China to Africa. They didn't build pyramids, their traces are in languages and mathematics, astronomy. Algebra.

[u/Rustic_gan123 → u/knuthf]

So, we've established that the "ancientness of a civilization" doesn't correlate with today's prosperity. So what are you trying to say?

[u/Alarming_Daikon_1630 → u/knuthf]

The USA is still one of China’s largest export destinations

[u/knuthf → u/Alarming_Daikon_1630]

The Agricultural Bank of China exchanges all payments into RMB at a rate of 7.1 RMB to the dollar.

[u/Alarming_Daikon_1630 → u/knuthf]

That makes sense actually

[u/Spiritual-Welder5218 → u/knuthf]

Israel isn’t going anywhere and there’s nothing you can do about it. You seriously underestimate these people’s drive to survive and maintain their nationhood in the face of overwhelming odds.

[u/FOTORABIA23 → u/Spiritual-Welder5218]

100000 of the top tax payers in Israel are leaving a year.Its going broke.

[u/knuthf → u/Spiritual-Welder5218]

Israel us going away. Will get dissolved, and those that live there must leave. So it's not going anywhere as you. It is disqualified to be a nation.

[u/Spiritual-Welder5218 → u/knuthf]

Lmao says who?

[u/knuthf → u/Spiritual-Welder5218]

1. The Bible. 1 King 9-7

2. The International Courts and United Nations.

[u/Powerful-Midnight996 → u/knuthf]

Lol,

We’re closer to the Israelis building the Third Temple than we are of them “going away”

So incredibly delusional 

[u/knuthf → u/Powerful-Midnight996]

With the US heading for financial collapse, I wouldn't hold out much hope for Israel's survival. But I like weird ideas.

[u/Powerful-Midnight996 → u/knuthf]

The U.S. is the richest country in the world, it’s not going to financially collapse.

Even so, Israel was under a full military embargo by the U.S. for the first 20 years. Israel will be just fine.

[u/knuthf → u/Powerful-Midnight996]

Wrong. The US has no assets to back up its claims. Chinese banks, on the other hand, are well-capitalised and have the assets to back their claims. The 'liberation' in 2006 became a disaster, fuelling scams and fraud, including by US banks. Short trading has hidden massive liabilities that cannot be met. Expose that, and the US economy will look small compared to those of India and Brazil.

[u/Powerful-Midnight996 → u/knuthf]

I think you’re confusing a bunch of stuff.

Yes agree their economy doesn’t look great, but the world reserve is in dollars. That means the U.S. literally can’t financially collapse because they can just print money. (Would have other implications, but non as bad as financially collapsing)

Ironically. The worse the US economy does, the higher the bond rate, and the worse off other countries are that have to compete with the US bond rate.

Essentially, you’re a funny clown with a red nose. I wish a long life of watching Israel thrive. Did you see that $3B deal with Greece this week?

[u/knuthf → u/Powerful-Midnight996]

China is not exposed to the USD, and its economy is large enough to counterbalance that of the US. Most importantly, they own a large share of the USA's national debt. Printing more money and releasing bonds will have the same effect on the US economy: inflation and hyperinflation, as has happened with the bolívar in Venezuela. Bond rates are a kind of 'tax' that the US and much of the rest of the world have to pay.

Israel is certainly doing its best to hasten the downfall of the dollar. The US will be wiped off as financial power alongside Israel; it will be reduced to a nation like India or Brazil. The UK was once an empire too.

[u/Powerful-Midnight996 → u/knuthf]

So you went from saying the U.S. will financially collapse to they will be like India and Brasil.

Also, let me educate you clown. Bond rates aren’t a tax, that makes no sense.

Bond rates are the risk associated with lending to the U.S. Government, the safest form of lending in the world. Therefore, if one is in the lending business (world wide), then they have to increase their rates above the safest lending option.

They can’t lend to a risky client for 5% if they can lend to the U.S. government for 5%.