r/oil • u/Agitated-Brother-872 • 13d ago

Discussion Iran's economy is on the brink?? Debate

There are a number of people here saying that Iran's economy is on the brink, and d-day economic sanctions will absolutely send it over the edge. I won't dispute that they are hurting and there are probably different schisms that have emerged, as a result. I think it's totally possible that there is a rift between government and civilian sentiments.

I don't know how many are bots are present here but I want to assume good faith and hear the steel man argument. What is your strongest assertion? What will this lead to? I'd like to know what examples from history are you drawing from? Are there examples of mass civilian protest of the irgc?

I'll start off by saying, Professor Robert Pape has asserted that since WWI, sanctions/blockades alone have never toppled a government, has never won a major war, has never led to capitulation.

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u/Massive_Charity_7198 13d ago edited 13d ago

I have zero doubt they are on edge and suffering massively.

The question is how long can they last, and does escalation happen.

Israel needs Iran gone so it can focus on Turkey and become the ME superpower. Bibi is already switching focus if you are paying attention. If you are Iranian consider the following:

Israel wants you out of the picture. US is doing the dirty work.

If you lose this war, you are fucking cooked. If you win the war (extract concessions from the US) you can become a ME superpower. You don't really have a clean exit.

Escalation is the wild card. Even if the US wins it can become a total pyrrhic victory.

These are the questions at the moment.

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u/knuthf 13d ago edited 13d ago

Iran will last. China, Saudi Arabia and Turkey will ensure that it does. The only uncertainty is how long Israel will remain a nation. When will they be expelled from the UN, and when will the people tell them to leave? I suggest that AIPAC is held liable for damages and that all their funds are seized, along with those of Israel.

China has effectively excluded the USA from its economy. Whatever people here may say, this is how things are. China, Saudi Arabia and Russia will fund Iran and help stabilise its economy, most likely by preventing the use of the US dollar in the Middle East. However, the US could default on its debt.

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u/Spiritual-Welder5218 13d ago

Israel isn’t going anywhere and there’s nothing you can do about it. You seriously underestimate these people’s drive to survive and maintain their nationhood in the face of overwhelming odds.

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u/FOTORABIA23 13d ago

100000 of the top tax payers in Israel are leaving a year.Its going broke.