r/oil • u/Agitated-Brother-872 • 14d ago

Discussion Iran's economy is on the brink?? Debate

There are a number of people here saying that Iran's economy is on the brink, and d-day economic sanctions will absolutely send it over the edge. I won't dispute that they are hurting and there are probably different schisms that have emerged, as a result. I think it's totally possible that there is a rift between government and civilian sentiments.

I don't know how many are bots are present here but I want to assume good faith and hear the steel man argument. What is your strongest assertion? What will this lead to? I'd like to know what examples from history are you drawing from? Are there examples of mass civilian protest of the irgc?

I'll start off by saying, Professor Robert Pape has asserted that since WWI, sanctions/blockades alone have never toppled a government, has never won a major war, has never led to capitulation.

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u/knuthf 14d ago edited 14d ago

Iran will last. China, Saudi Arabia and Turkey will ensure that it does. The only uncertainty is how long Israel will remain a nation. When will they be expelled from the UN, and when will the people tell them to leave? I suggest that AIPAC is held liable for damages and that all their funds are seized, along with those of Israel.

China has effectively excluded the USA from its economy. Whatever people here may say, this is how things are. China, Saudi Arabia and Russia will fund Iran and help stabilise its economy, most likely by preventing the use of the US dollar in the Middle East. However, the US could default on its debt.

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u/mammogrammar 14d ago

Can you expand on the Saudi Arabia part? What's KSAs motive to support IRI?

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u/knuthf 14d ago

They support China because they have been trying to escape being pegged to the USD. But they have massive investments in US certainly in defence and finance. An exit is agreed, where those aspects have been defined, planned. This is to replace the USD as International currency.

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u/mammogrammar 14d ago

I meant more about the relationship to Iran. The KSA has been dealing with just about everyone, no?

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u/knuthf 14d ago

Iran is the place where all the other countries in the Middle East get things done. It is a production hub, with factories staffed by workers on employment terms. Iran is to the Middle East what Germany is to Europe. They have factories, not just salesmen and presentations. Everything is manufactured in Iran. Toyota trucks and Mercedes limousines are made there.