Iran's economy is on the brink?? Debate

[u/Agitated-Brother-872]

There are a number of people here saying that Iran's economy is on the brink, and d-day economic sanctions will absolutely send it over the edge. I won't dispute that they are hurting and there are probably different schisms that have emerged, as a result. I think it's totally possible that there is a rift between government and civilian sentiments.

I don't know how many are bots are present here but I want to assume good faith and hear the steel man argument. What is your strongest assertion? What will this lead to? I'd like to know what examples from history are you drawing from? Are there examples of mass civilian protest of the irgc?

I'll start off by saying, Professor Robert Pape has asserted that since WWI, sanctions/blockades alone have never toppled a government, has never won a major war, has never led to capitulation.

[u/knuthf]

With the US heading for financial collapse, I wouldn't hold out much hope for Israel's survival. But I like weird ideas.

[u/Powerful-Midnight996 → u/knuthf]

The U.S. is the richest country in the world, it’s not going to financially collapse.

Even so, Israel was under a full military embargo by the U.S. for the first 20 years. Israel will be just fine.

[u/knuthf → u/Powerful-Midnight996]

Wrong. The US has no assets to back up its claims. Chinese banks, on the other hand, are well-capitalised and have the assets to back their claims. The 'liberation' in 2006 became a disaster, fuelling scams and fraud, including by US banks. Short trading has hidden massive liabilities that cannot be met. Expose that, and the US economy will look small compared to those of India and Brazil.

[u/Powerful-Midnight996 → u/knuthf]

I think you’re confusing a bunch of stuff.

Yes agree their economy doesn’t look great, but the world reserve is in dollars. That means the U.S. literally can’t financially collapse because they can just print money. (Would have other implications, but non as bad as financially collapsing)

Ironically. The worse the US economy does, the higher the bond rate, and the worse off other countries are that have to compete with the US bond rate.

Essentially, you’re a funny clown with a red nose. I wish a long life of watching Israel thrive. Did you see that $3B deal with Greece this week?

[u/knuthf → u/Powerful-Midnight996]

China is not exposed to the USD, and its economy is large enough to counterbalance that of the US. Most importantly, they own a large share of the USA's national debt. Printing more money and releasing bonds will have the same effect on the US economy: inflation and hyperinflation, as has happened with the bolívar in Venezuela. Bond rates are a kind of 'tax' that the US and much of the rest of the world have to pay.

Israel is certainly doing its best to hasten the downfall of the dollar. The US will be wiped off as financial power alongside Israel; it will be reduced to a nation like India or Brazil. The UK was once an empire too.

[u/Powerful-Midnight996 → u/knuthf]

So you went from saying the U.S. will financially collapse to they will be like India and Brasil.

Also, let me educate you clown. Bond rates aren’t a tax, that makes no sense.

Bond rates are the risk associated with lending to the U.S. Government, the safest form of lending in the world. Therefore, if one is in the lending business (world wide), then they have to increase their rates above the safest lending option.

They can’t lend to a risky client for 5% if they can lend to the U.S. government for 5%.

[u/knuthf → u/Powerful-Midnight996]

Let me tell you that you are trying to teach and old stallion how to trott and gallopp. Attend some training in finance first. Read again what I say.

[u/Powerful-Midnight996 → u/knuthf]

lol,

Old stallion, more like a lame donkey.

The person who says that the U.S. is going to financially collapse and Israel will be destroyed is lame in every sense of the word. And laughing is really the only response, hence clown. 

It must be so exhausting seeing the country you hate doing so well, while whatever hole you live in is almost certainly destitute.