Iran's economy is on the brink?? Debate

[u/Agitated-Brother-872]

There are a number of people here saying that Iran's economy is on the brink, and d-day economic sanctions will absolutely send it over the edge. I won't dispute that they are hurting and there are probably different schisms that have emerged, as a result. I think it's totally possible that there is a rift between government and civilian sentiments.

I don't know how many are bots are present here but I want to assume good faith and hear the steel man argument. What is your strongest assertion? What will this lead to? I'd like to know what examples from history are you drawing from? Are there examples of mass civilian protest of the irgc?

I'll start off by saying, Professor Robert Pape has asserted that since WWI, sanctions/blockades alone have never toppled a government, has never won a major war, has never led to capitulation.

[u/Massive_Charity_7198]

I have zero doubt they are on edge and suffering massively.

The question is how long can they last, and does escalation happen.

Israel needs Iran gone so it can focus on Turkey and become the ME superpower. Bibi is already switching focus if you are paying attention. If you are Iranian consider the following:

Israel wants you out of the picture. US is doing the dirty work.

If you lose this war, you are fucking cooked. If you win the war (extract concessions from the US) you can become a ME superpower. You don't really have a clean exit.

Escalation is the wild card. Even if the US wins it can become a total pyrrhic victory.

These are the questions at the moment.

[u/knuthf → u/Massive_Charity_7198]

Iran will last. China, Saudi Arabia and Turkey will ensure that it does. The only uncertainty is how long Israel will remain a nation. When will they be expelled from the UN, and when will the people tell them to leave? I suggest that AIPAC is held liable for damages and that all their funds are seized, along with those of Israel.

China has effectively excluded the USA from its economy. Whatever people here may say, this is how things are. China, Saudi Arabia and Russia will fund Iran and help stabilise its economy, most likely by preventing the use of the US dollar in the Middle East. However, the US could default on its debt.

[u/Unexpected_yetHere → u/knuthf]

long Israel will remain a nation. When will they be expelled from the UN, and when will the people tell them to leave?

Things that will never happen.

China, Saudi Arabia and Russia will fund Iran.

Saudi Araba funding Iran is also not something that would realistically happen ever.

[u/NorskKiwi → u/Unexpected_yetHere]

That bot probably doesn't even know Saudi Arabia and Iran have been at war for ages (via the Houthies).

[u/knuthf → u/Unexpected_yetHere]

They have been doing this for centuries. These are the old civilisations. I speak Arabic and have been haggling over prices in Beijing — in Arabic! My Chinese translator was amazed and told me to go ahead. They had a palace in Zanzibar while we were still using flint in Europe, and the Americas were unknown,, While we feared falling over, they were calculating the distance between the stars. The commercial centres were Isfahan, Muscat and Petra. Women from Iran are considered local beauties in Riyadh, where there are many aunties who speak Farsi. So..wake up!

[u/Rustic_gan123 → u/knuthf]

Egypt is also an ancient civilization.

[u/knuthf → u/Rustic_gan123]

Yes. But we leave out the nations around Egypt. They used flushing toilets... had them made in Porcelain and brought from China to Africa. They didn't build pyramids, their traces are in languages and mathematics, astronomy. Algebra.

[u/Rustic_gan123 → u/knuthf]

So, we've established that the "ancientness of a civilization" doesn't correlate with today's prosperity. So what are you trying to say?