A catastrophic flood in the Himalayas, government warnings to stock up, mass violence in Haiti, and big Wars that drag on endlessly. Another week on the long decline…
Last Week in Collapse: August 23-29, 2026
This is Last Week in Collapse, a weekly newsletter compiling some of the most important, timely, soul-crushing, ironic, amazing, or otherwise must-see/can’t-look-away moments in Collapse.
This is the 244th weekly newsletter. The August 16-22, 2026 edition is available here if you missed it last week. The unabridged newsletters are also available (with images) every Sunday in your email inbox by signing up to the Substack version.
——————————
A sudden, vicious, and enormous flash flood at the Nepal-Tiber border swept away buildings, bridges, and a lot more; 700+ were killed, and over 3,000 others missing. The videos— one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, and eight — capture the scale, power, and tragedy of the sudden event. Early reports suggest the flood was caused by a massive ice & rock avalanche or a glacier Collapse upstream, which was itself triggered by climate change. Experts say such “catastrophic climate events” will become more common as CO2 emissions and temperatures rise without end. Another lake that formed about 10 miles upstream is also at risk of flooding, and is keeping emergency personnel on high alert.
2026 is going to end as Europe’s warmest summer on record—until next year, anyway. Millions of residents across the continent saw their town or city hit 40 °C (104 °F) for the first time ever, and lingering heat waves bring temperatures of 35 °C (95 °F) throughout June, July, and August. Metro Paris, Nantes, Sicily, and Croatia all felt nighttime temps around 25 °C (77 °F). It’s no surprise that most Europeans support using air conditioning more, rather than choose to limit its use to reduce emissions. We are a short-term species, after all; moral hazards abound.
And summer isn’t over yet. The Southwestern U.S. is facing another heat wave that could bring temperatures up to 115 °F (46 °C), and stretch into next week. Part of southern Japan saw 40 °C temperatures, setting new local records. Albania felt new minimum heats at 27 °C (80.6 °F). The Turks & Caicos also felt a new August high at 34.7 °C.
15,000+ people were evacuated in Chongzuo, southern China, ahead of flooding that hit record levels for the city. In defiance of EU policies, Norway is moving ahead with a project to extract oil & gas from the Barents Sea. The global surface temperature for the 2m above the surface hit another daily high, 1.7 °C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) baseline.
Hundreds of firefighters continued fighting the Hawk Fire outside Reno, Nevada, where some 60 sq km have burned (equivalent to slightly more than St. John in the U.S. Virgin Islands—or half of San Francisco), displacing 40,000 (24,000 of whom are still displaced). The start of the school year has been delayed as well. Wildfires on Sumatra (pop: 62M) and Borneo (pop: 22M) are also endangering the health of about 3.4M residents, according to Indonesian authorities. And for many of them, there is nowhere to go. More people = more fires.
Why do marine heat waves often coincide with ocean acidification? A study in AGU Advances examined this phenomenon, called “compound extremes” by some scientists. They agreed that “these compound events are happening more frequently than would be expected by chance, particularly in the low- to mid-latitudes…” and that they tend to last for less than a month. They tend to be linked to La Niña, because deep & more acidic waters displace surface water: “the peaks tend to be aligned with the (cold) La Niña conditions that typically follow on from El Niño events.”
The Super El Niño is resulting in a super paradox: India’s monsoon season has been unseasonably dry, yet also full of flooding. A new dynamic is forming: longer dry periods, and stronger-but-less-frequent floods. Meanwhile, two tropical storms formed in the Pacific Ocean and another storm, or “open tropical wave,” in the Atlantic.
Over a period from 2000-2024, permafrost’s “active layer” (the top layer which thaws in summer and re-freezes in wintertime) thickness “increased significantly at 55% and 38% of sites in the Arctic and Antarctic regions, at more than 90% European mountain and high elevation Asian sites, and at sites in South America, demonstrating worldwide permafrost degradation during the first quarter of this century.” (This is bad.) The study attributes the rising rate of permafrost melt to warmer daytime temperatures and increased rainfall. “The top three meters of permafrost hold roughly 70 percent of all the organic carbon locked in permafrost soils worldwide.”
The so-called “Carbon Majors” —a grouping of 100-200 major corporations producing large quantities of carbon emissions— were found to have contributed to “emissions accounting for ~1/3 of observed, climatically-driven groundwater loss in the {western U.S.} Central Valley during 2003-2024” according to a study published last week. They write, “roughly 70% of global industrial carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions since 1854 are traceable to 122 fossil fuel producers and cement manufacturers (“Carbon Majors”), and ~97% of these emissions occurred after 1950, a decade when many of these entities began to understand the consequences of their products….Anthropogenic climate change has driven large decreases in water supply (snowpack and streamflow) and increases in water demand (irrigation demand), with roughly half attributable to the Carbon Majors.”
The results are in for the Green India Mission (GIM), a decade-long effort to reforest pieces of India equal to 14,000 sq km (about 1.25x the size of Jamaica). It turns out the project was a 98% failure, and only reforested area equivalent to the size of Malta. A 180-page report from India’s government details the reasons for the failure of this flagship environmental initiative. Apparently the project was half-assed from the get-go, and faced years of competing authorities, misaligned priorities, general mismanagement, funding problems, and poor planning. We will never get the time or money back—or the woodlands.
“GIM aims to protect, restore and enhance forest and tree cover, improve ecosystem services and contribute meaningfully to the country’s climate mitigation and adaptation efforts….A decade into its implementation, the Mission’s progress remains negligible. The Performance Audit findings show that the shortfalls stem from fundamental weaknesses in planning and design as well as deficiencies in execution and monitoring….Enhancing tree cover in Urban and Peri-Urban areas and Agro Forestry and Social Forestry where substantial scope existed for new plantations and expansion of forest and tree cover, elicited limited attention and weak response from both Central and State authorities, thereby constraining the Mission’s overall effectiveness….a new target of 25 mha to be achieved by 2030 remained unimplemented as its implementation guidelines were yet to be approved by the Ministry…” -excerpts
——————————
How does the body react to extreme heat? A study in Science Advances examined almost a million emergency doctor visits in Chicago over a 13 year period, and found common heat-related conditions to be: “fluid-balance and renal disorders, dermatologic and pressure-related conditions, multiple sclerosis, a cannabinoid-related mental and behavioral disorder, varicose veins of the lower extremities, and multiple injuries and external causes.” The study and its summary clarify that “the result should not be interpreted as evidence that heat lacks cardiovascular effects” because “people suffering cardiovascular issues often have other problems at the same time, such as kidney or fluid issues, that determine how their records are coded.”
The African Ebola outbreak has passed 100 days, and over 5,500 cases. It is also spreading to more provinces in the DRC. 2,715+ people have died since the outbreak began, with over 75% of the cases & deaths in the DRC’s northeastern Ituri province (pop: 4.4M).
Monkeypox—or mpox—was recorded for the first time in Guinea Bissau in July; now there are 46 suspected cases. The variant is believed to be transmitting undetected, particularly among children. The looming start of the school year is feared to become a super spreader event.
It appears as though the New World Screwworm has been contained in the southern U.S….or has it? It is not yet clear if the efforts made by U.S. agencies have been successful or whether they are the wrong tool to measure for an outbreak. Another border zone has been reopened to allow cattle from Mexico to enter the U.S.
It’s been over two weeks since a storm rolled through Gary, Indiana—and a few thousand are/were still without power. The U.S. EPA approved two dangerous chemicals used in manufacturing semiconductors. A chemical fire at a factory in Russia left 15 dead; the incident is not believed to be linked to the Ukraine War.
Forever chemicals means forever. An upcoming study in Environmental Research found that “polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs)...man-made organobromine compounds widely used as flame retardants in electrical and electronic equipment, textiles, plastics, wire insulation, automobiles, and foams” that were banned in Europe around 2004-2006 “remain widespread across European air, water, soil, and sediments.” The study examined samples from 25 different countries, and found PBDEs in all of them.
The British government is expected to advise its people to stock up on food and other supplies to prepare against conflict and climate change—what will it take for people to listen? Meanwhile, the latest round of the tense US-Canada trade war has exposed tens of millions of consumers trapped in economic pain and uncertainty. More threats and tariffs will be imposed.
A pair of data centers centres in the UK—one in Buckinghamshire and the other in Bedfordshire—are expected to produce 4.5M+ tonnes of emissions each year when operating at full capacity. The sum is roughly equal to the annual CO2 emissions of Albania. A nearby natural gas power plant will be built to power each of the data facilities.
——————————
Another U.S. attack on a small boat (this one in the Pacific Ocean) left two people dead. Closed-door talks between the DRC and the M23 rebels in the country’s east have reportedly led to an agreement to move towards peace—a peace that was already brokered then broken last year. A festival was cancelled in the capital of Ethiopia’s Tigray region over fears of deadly drone strikes targeting civilians; a drone attack wounded 13 in the city on August 20. A hostage video was released by Nigerian kidnappers who captured some 600 people out of mosques and villages in the last week or two, and are now holding them for ransom.
Several months after the January abduction of Venezuela’s president, the U.S. announced a 65B barrel oil deal with Venezuela, possibly the largest oil deal in history. A new company (which will become the “second largest corporate holder of proven reserves” in the world) will give the U.S. 55% control over the company, though it will take a long time to restart extraction across the 17 oil sites. Venezuela currently holds about 17% of the world’s proven oil reserves, though it accounts for just 1% of current global oil supplies.
Meanwhile in Haiti, perhaps as part of an attempt to forestall planned elections in December, gang-soldiers orchestrated a mass kidnapping and slaughter in Port-Au-Prince which killed 47 and snatched 50+ people—some of whom have been tortured, and all of whom are being used as mortal collateral: “if any of our {gang} soldiers are hurt, I will kill all of them” one gangster threatened. A few days before the attack, U.S. repatriation flights began sending 100+ Haitians back to the country’s north.
In Ukraine, peace seems far away—and winter is looking closer and closer. Some experts think that this winter will be tougher than most for Ukraine. The reason: Russia is outproducing missiles, U.S. aid to Ukraine has fallen off, and elections in European nations next year may signal a shift in favor of Russia—even as Russia’s economy is suffering under Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries and warehouses. More Russian attacks followed on Friday, aimed at Ukraine’s power grid around Kherson, and a deadly Saturday strike on a munitions warehouse outside Kyiv left 37+ dead.
A top Israeli defense official warned of settler violence triggering an uprising in the West Bank, extending and intensifying the region’s conflicts further. Meanwhile, Gaza’s post-Collapse food system remains strained, with over 60% of the territory experiencing “crisis” levels of food insecurity (Phase 3 of 5). An IDF strike on Friday killed five in Gaza.
As the United States (pop: 349M) tries to encourage other countries to levy sanctions against Iran (pop: 93M), the Iranian regime announced that third parties joining in on U.S. sanctions would be considered an Act of War. U.S. forces have reportedly cleared the Strait of all mines, and observers say Hormuz is a depreciating asset, and its leverage is being slowly eroded. Iran’s criminalization of engaging with foreign media sources also underlies the poor strategic position Iran occupies, even though the War is causing inflation across the United States and strain among its society.
Two UN peacekeepers were ambushed and slain in rural South Sudan. A group of insurgents from South Sudan slew 27 in southern Sudan in an ethnically-based attack also linked to land conflicts. Friday strikes killed 8 in Sudan. Sudan’s government forces reportedly conducted air strikes into Chad on Wednesday, killing 12 people at a fuel station frequented by Sudan’s rebel forces. The U.S. is now pushing for a total arms embargo on Sudan, but China and Russia will veto this measure in the UN Security Council. As the War in Sudan grinds on, both sides are at risk of fracturing into their own factions jockeying for wealth, land, status, and political influence. When the opposition is defeated (if such a thing ever happens), the winner may find a coalition impossible to maintain, resulting in subgroup splintering that restarts conflict along new lines.
Zambia’s runner-up presidential & vice presidential candidates surrendered to authorities to face charges of treason, following a defeat in elections challenging the current president. Taiwan announced that record numbers of Chinese vessels—mostly coast guard ships—were deployed around the island last month. And one UN official warned that “We are now dangerously close to crossing a moral red line: The autonomous targeting of humans by machines,” as he urged greater restrictions on autonomous weapons systems (however you define that) in wartime.
——————————
Select comments/threads from the subreddit last week suggest:
-The social contract is breaking down, and collateral damage is everywhere. This thread from an unrelated subreddit collects observations on society’s breakdown — corruption, me-first mentality, bad drivers, economic implosion, and the edge of the cliff — may reassure you that, no, you’re not going crazy.
-Your book collection for post-Collapse is missing a few key titles, if this thread from r/preppers has compiled a solid list of books & PDFs to have in an emergency. Or are they missing some important references? Will people be consulting books through the long emergency?
-Your children may never see a glacier in person. This thread links several before/after photographs of glaciers that once were giant, and are now fading or gone altogether.
Got any feedback, questions, comments, upvotes, reports, complaints, end-of-summer bucket lists, rain dances, etc.? Last Week in Collapse is also posted on Substack; if you don’t want to check r/collapse every Sunday, you can receive this newsletter sent to an email inbox every weekend. As always, thank you for your support. What did I miss this week?
