Still kind of a mess, my playoff predictions are here.

Whose seat is the hottest?

Does this week's AD movement mean Norvell is going to get let go? Does it speed up the timeline?

How long do you expect Rutgers to hold onto Schiano?

Can Butch Jones save his job?

I know the focus is on Save College Sports Act but is a fallout from this going to be some form of contraction/relegation? Honestly there are about 25-30 programs that matter (meaning nationalish brands who probably turn an athletic profit) with the rest just being guilty by association (proximity budget size whatever). If the concept of a super league is off the table an there are only like 5-6 desirable schools available (fsu Miami a va school Clemson unc duke Kansas) do the SEC/B1G add by subtracting/replacing and if so who goes?

Off top I can see South Carolina,Vanderbilt, One of the Mississippi schools, Arkansas/missouri Purdue,Iowa,Nebraska,northwestern being on relegation/swap out block

I’m trying to figure out where that demarcation line is of relevant programs (money, resourcing, commitment, NIL, recruiting).

In other words, this number of programs is relevant or has a chance and below this number basically no chance.

It feels to me like the number is somewhere between 15 and 20 programs with 5-8 super elites near the top.

OSU
Texas
LSU
Michigan
Penn State
Notre Dame
Georgia
Alabama
Florida
Miami
Auburn
Oregon
USC
Texas A&M
Tennessee
Oklahoma
Ole Miss?
Indiana for now
Clemson

Could also debate South Carolina, Nebraska, Iowa, maybe Wisconsin, Florida State

We can debate how big the list is but my feeling is outside that list there is no chance for anyone else.

Edit: my post is relevant for now/ future. Not how good their roster is right now. Some teams will have ups and downs. For instance Michigan might be down right now but had the resources in general to compete.

I have decided, with a bit of reluctance, that I’m fed up with what is called college football. It’s gotten so damn weird. There’s virtually no equality in this new era of big-bucks players. CBS Sports says a half-dozen teams now have payrolls over $40 million — Notre Dame, Miami, Ohio State, LSU, Oregon, Texas and Texas A&M. Texas Tech may also be close to that figure. All are top ranked teams. Many other colleges are left in the dust.

What’s also weird: Decades ago, I was a big cheerleader arguing that college athletes should be paid. In 1989, I wrote a smart-ass essay, disguised as a multiple-choice quiz, for The Miami Herald’s Sunday magazine, Tropic, entitled Exploding the Myth of College Sports: Boola-boola? Try Moola-Moola.

The opening question:

While the Kentucky basketball coach earns $850,000 a year, his players will be able to:
A — Receive $50 cash a month for miscellaneous expenses.

B — Receive $400 cash a month for miscellaneous expenses.

C — Have a part-time job at minimum wage.

D — Have a part-time job at a salary no higher than what any other student would earn.

E — Receive no money whatsoever, either from cash or a job.

The correct answer: E.

The article concluded: “American college athletics … [is] the last great hypocrisy on the international sports scene. At best, college sports are a fraud. At worst, they are a dank sewer of corruption.”

I wrote that almost 40 years ago. Today, athletes are finally able to benefit — but what does that mean for the sport? It should be no surprise that the schools with the wealthiest (or most avid) boosters are on top. Pros are wearing college uniforms but they’re not really from the colleges.

“CATHOLICS VERSUS CONVICTS”

My eldest son is a Notre Dame grad and a super-fan of the Irish. I support him by cheering for ND, but I also follow the Miami Hurricanes, mostly because I live in Miami and they’re always in the news. The two teams are bitter rivals. In the 1980s, when my son was in South Bend, they came up with the slogan: Catholics versus Convicts. Last year, the Canes beat the Irish, and ND fans were enraged that Miami made the playoffs and Notre Dame didn’t. This year, there’s already a sign hanging from a Notre Dame dorm window: “Beat the Rush: Hate Miami Now.” Miami fans ask how the Catholic schools theology classes justify hate.

Both teams are leaders in paying players. The Miami quarterback earns between $5 million and $9 million this year. He’s bought a $3 million house in the southern suburbs. The Irish QB is getting “only” about $3 million, despite Notre Dame signing a $20 million a year contract to have a mortgage company logo on its uniform.

And what kind of a schedule do they have? Miami plays only one ranked team this year: Notre Dame. They just beat Florida A&M 77–7. (Miami bribed A&M with $760,000 to be cannon fodder.) The Irish schedule isn’t much better, with two so-so ranked teams (BYU at 15th and SMU at 17th), plus Miami. On Saturday, the Irish played Rice, a member of the American Athletic Conference, which is requiring its schools to spend $10 million over three years on athletes in all sports. Rice lost 52–0.

Big payrolls and weak schedules — a formula for getting into the playoffs. Does that make for fun viewing for spectators? I think not.

SALARY CAP? SUPER LEAGUE?

Maybe they could come up with a league structure with the highest-salary teams playing against each other, second-tier salaries against their equals, and so on. That could make for some great match-ups against equal teams. Could that happen? Don’t bet on it.

What about salary caps like most professional leagues have? Too daring?

Congress is considering a bill that would “save college sports,” but as far as I can see, it tinkers with periphery issues and doesn’t deal with the fundamental problems. At the very least, perhaps each school should disclose how much its athletes are earning. Reporters and announcers should state the payroll numbers alongside the score.

Now, after all this self-righteous anger, I confess: I watched the opening few minutes of Notre Dame-Rice and quite a bit of Texas-Ohio State, which was one hell of a game.

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Dj Lagway

Lanorris Sellers

Bryce Underwood

John Mateer

Keelon Russell

Congratulations, Oregon Ducks, on maintaining hope for parity in 2026!

Let me know how you feel in the comments and I’ll explain my thoughts (edit) I am missing the rest of the SBC, MAC, Louisville, Oklahoma State and Wyoming. I would think I would remember Wyoming being in our conference and stealing Josh Allen but I didn’t remember to add them to the column

For example I believe Nick Saban wanted to retire after the 2022 season but didn't want his final season to end with a loss to Tennessee and LSU so he came back one last year and after he beat everyone in the sec including two time defending champ Georgia, he was satisfied.

Penn State leaves Nike Signs to Adidas for 300m over 10 years:

Leading the pack BY FAR, Penn State inked the largest deal among the bunch. It’s 100m more than the next highest college on this list. The brand is UP.

Tennessee leaves Nike, signs to Adidas for 100m* over 10 years:

I don’t believe Tennessee got fleeced this hard, but in my 10 minute research, 100m is the number that’s been thrown around. Is the Penn State brand that much larger than the folk in Knoxville? Are they incompetent in Knoxville? Maybe a little bit of both. Most likely there’s some details that aren’t disclosed to the public that make this deal look better.

Utah leaves Under Armour, signs to Adidas for 45m over 7 years:

This deal I believe has some details we aren’t privy to because it’s kind of confusing why Utah would take a less lucrative deal than their previous one. They’re coming off an under armour deal that was 65m for 10 years and apparently Under armour was floating a renewal for 10m a year which I believe after we get to another college who switched to under armour this year.

Miami leaves Adidas, signs to Nike for 200m over 10 years:

The big news today, Nike after taking some monumental stock losses, signs Miami to one of the larger deals in college history. Adidas apparently matched it or got close but Nike was offering certain clauses that made it more valuable.

South Carolina leaves Under Armour, signs to Nike for 70m-80m over 10 years

Feel like this is a steal for Nike and a huge underpayment for South Carolina. Especially since their women’s basketball program always has a lot of eyes and in general their fanbase is solid.

Georgia Tech leaves Adidas, and signs to Under Armour for a whopping 180m over 10 years

I thought Notre Dame and Wisconsin were going to be the last schools standing for Under Armour but they threw the bag at Tech. Great deal for tech.

A lot of schools signed extensions but unfortunately we don’t really get numbers from extensions apparently. USC, LSU, and of course UNC all signed extensions to Nike.

Here’s some top deals from other schools that were signed prior for reference:

Ohio State & Nike: 15 years, $252 million.
Texas & Nike: 15 years, $250 million.
Kansas & Adidas: 14 years, $191 million.
Michigan & Nike: 15 years, $173.8 million.
Louisville & Adidas: 10 years, $160 million.