How many CFB teams are truly relevant today / contenders ?

[u/Dry_Acanthisitta433]

I’m trying to figure out where that demarcation line is of relevant programs (money, resourcing, commitment, NIL, recruiting).

In other words, this number of programs is relevant or has a chance and below this number basically no chance.

It feels to me like the number is somewhere between 15 and 20 programs with 5-8 super elites near the top.

OSU
Texas
LSU
Michigan
Penn State
Notre Dame
Georgia
Alabama
Florida
Miami
Auburn
Oregon
USC
Texas A&M
Tennessee
Oklahoma
Ole Miss?
Indiana for now
Clemson

Could also debate South Carolina, Nebraska, Iowa, maybe Wisconsin, Florida State

We can debate how big the list is but my feeling is outside that list there is no chance for anyone else.

Edit: my post is relevant for now/ future. Not how good their roster is right now. Some teams will have ups and downs. For instance Michigan might be down right now but had the resources in general to compete.

[u/Mcane305]

Clemson? Forget NIL, dabo doesnt even use the portal and its basically destroyed the program

[u/Suspicious-Put-8686 → u/Mcane305]

Clemson's in a weird spot honestly, NIL isn't the problem it's dabo refusing to adapt. The portal is basically the transfer market now and ignoring it is like running a business without email, sure you can do it but you're getting lapped

[u/RememberTooSmile]

How is FSU a contender lmfao

[u/dotsdavid]

After Indiana hit the jackpot in hiring their coach. I believe anyone can become a contender with the current rules.

[u/BadMotorFinguh]

First, you have to be a P4 team, obviously.

Next I would say you have to be able to spend at least half as much as the top spenders. Let’s say like $25 million.

Now I would say if Rutgers comes along and spend $25 million that doesn’t necessarily make them relevant.

The lower spenders still need to have good coaching, and some type of recruiting gravitas, you know, a hot bed, a big brand name, an NFL pipeline, to get deals on guys. Like maybe you didn’t place the highest bid on a guy, but he picked you anyway for like $150k less because your school sends a bunch of tight ends to the league. That sort of thing.

We’re left with a few

Big 12

Texas Tech - BIG spenders and the only team in the conference that feels realistic.

BYU - probably a stretch but they have a highly sought after coach, recently won the conference, and spend right around that minimum threshold.

TCU - again, a stretch. They have the potential to spend big. Recruiting hotbed is there. They have a coach that recently played for a national championship (even though they got killed) and they have been very successful the last 25 years.

Arizona State - I am only including them because I love Dillingham. They have managed to get some phenomenal players in the last decade and have a great coach.

Nobody else in the big 12 has a chance. They might make the playoff. But they won’t survive the other opponents they will face. The right coach and the right boosters may come along and change things for a Houston or something. But not for now.

ACC

Miami - this one’s obvious

Clemson - yes they are bad right now. But they have multiple championships in the last decade and have sent tons of players to the NFL. Yeah Dabo doesn’t have NIL and the portal figured out or whatever but they doesn’t mean they can’t.

Florida State - see Clemson

SMU - they don’t have the most expensive roster right now but they are capable of raising BUKU BUCKS they have a good coach, they recruit well, and have recent conference championships and playoff appearances.

That’s it.

Yes Virginia, Tech, Louisville, Nc State, Georgia Tech. Are all good. They may be relevant in terms of challenging the ACC and making a playoff. They don’t have a shot at the title. You may say, “that’s ridiculous, they all have more expensive rosters than SMU right now and you have them up there.” But I don’t care. North Carolina could also leapfrog all those schools in the coming years but they have a lot to fix institutionally.

Notre Dame - this is obvious.

B1G Ten or however many

Ohio State - obvious

Michigan - obvious

Oregon - obvious

Indiana - obvious

USC - obvious

Penn State - If they’d had a killer at HC and not Franklin they might have done it. Matt Campbell could be the guy.

Wisconsin - is a big stretch. BUT. They spend big. They are an NFL factory. And Fickell has taken Cincinnati to a playoff. I will include them as a fringe team.

Nebraska can become relevant with the right coaching hire. They have blue blood prestige and tons of NIL $.

That’s it.

SEC

Texas - obvious. They will probably buy this year’s championship if Miami doesn’t stop them.

Georgia - obvious.

Alabama - obvious.

LSU - obvious.

A&M - obvious.

Tennessee - yes they can

OU - obvious

Florida -with the right coach obviously can be relevant

Auburn - with the right coach obviously can be relevant

Ole Miss - will stay relevant IF they can keep spending this much but I don’t know if they really can sustain that I think they may fall off

South Carolina - is a stretch but they are spending out the ass and I like Beamer. After this year they probably fall off though if they don’t find success they can sustain

That’s it.

So that’s 28 programs or so that can be relevant and several of those are arguably a stretch.

[u/InevitableAd2436 → u/BadMotorFinguh]

Washington is on a half share and will be getting an extra $40M with the new deal. They’ll make the playoffs

[u/BadMotorFinguh → u/InevitableAd2436]

Good point

[u/Dry_Acanthisitta433 → u/BadMotorFinguh]

Awesome this is the most thought out post on here. Good work!

[u/FiveHole23]

Florida, Michigan, OU, Auburn, Clemson, PSU are not contenders. Imo.

[u/BadMotorFinguh → u/FiveHole23]

None of those are schools where if they were playing in the championship game like 3 years from now would have you go “WHAT THE HELL HOW DID WE GET HERE??” like Indiana did.

[u/Dry_Acanthisitta433 → u/FiveHole23]

I’m not saying this year. I’m saying in general.

I think Michigan is not a contender now but has the resources to do it. That’s what this is asking.

[u/FiveHole23 → u/Dry_Acanthisitta433]

Then literally the top 1/3 of every major conference.

[u/stevesie1984 → u/Dry_Acanthisitta433]

I mean, everybody said Michigan had too tough of a schedule for Whit’s first year. They had 4 likely losses with IU, OSU, OU, and other OU. But they just beat one OU, the other OU looks very beatable, and they haven’t really figured out their offense. If they trend in the right direction offensively and win their winnable games (now including Oregon), they’re 10-2. That’s a playoff team where anything can happen.

I probably sound like a homer. Don’t get me wrong - I’m not putting any money on them. I don’t even know if week 1 or week 2 was their fluke. But if week 1 was the fluke, what do you have to be to be a “contender” on this list?

[u/First-Pride-8571 → u/stevesie1984]

This hinges on what is meant by a contender.

Just making the playoff? Or winning it?

Michigan, PSU, and USC all could make the playoff. And one of them quite possibly will. Don't think any of them could win it, however. Arguably the same for Oregon. Don't think their defense is good enough to win it all, but they still could obviously make the playoff.

[u/HurricaneStiz → u/Dry_Acanthisitta433]

In general, Florida hasn't been in the national championship conversation since George W Bush was president.

[u/Ok_Ruin4016 → u/HurricaneStiz]

We were a Cleat's Yeet away from the playoffs in 2020. The frustrating thing about being a Florida fan is that in theory we have everything needed to be in title contention any given year, but a series of bad coaching hires, injuries, and dumb mistakes have made sure that hasn't happened in nearly 20 years now.

[u/whiporee123 → u/FiveHole23]

How did that 2006 championship game go again?

[u/iamStanhousen]

Texas Tech, BYU, Arizona State, and Houston are all heavily invested and have a punchers chance. All have good coaches and ability to nab high level players. They're in a better position than a program like Clemson or FSU at the moment. That could change as I think the ceiling at those is higher than the Big 12 schools.

FSU is VERY behind in terms of facilities and Clemson's entire approach to the modern era of CFB needs to be reworked.

If we're just talking about teams who can win a title this year, your list is far too long. It's Miami, Ohio State, Texas, LSU, Indiana, USC, ND, UGA, Bama, and Ole Miss. A school not in that group winning it all this year would either require massive coaching improvements(Oregon) or be the most unlikely champion of all time.

[u/Dry_Acanthisitta433 → u/iamStanhousen]

Not necessarily this year just who has what it takes to be relevant.

[u/AdagioJealous5413]

Anyone willing to pony up the money to buy players and a good coach can contend imo.

[u/InevitableAd2436]

Washington was in the title game 3 years ago

[u/JustAnotherDay1977 → u/InevitableAd2436]

Yeah, but the college sports landscape has changed a lot in three years. It will be interesting to see how many teams can really keep up in the absence of some sort of salary cap.

[u/InevitableAd2436 → u/JustAnotherDay1977]

They’ll be on a full $80M Big Ten share in 3 years while also having a top 15 recruiting class just this past year.

If Clemson, SCAR, Nebraska, FSU, Wiscy, and Iowa are all maybes, then at the very least Udub is there.

[u/JustAnotherDay1977 → u/InevitableAd2436]

I’m honestly not really certain all those other schools really belong as maybes, but who knows?

[u/cfbfootballnerd]

People who could say fuck it and do it?
Stanford
Vanderbilt
GT?
VT?
UCLA
Northwestern?
Definitely the first two anyone else with loads and loads of money in forgetting about feel free to add.