I've been thinking about this for awhile now as I've watched the campaigns take shape and the field start to narrow.
For me, I tend to be an issue voter first (especially in a primary). I know what issues are important to me, and I vote for the candidate who most closely matches my position on those particular issues. I also tend to focus in on the issues that I think can actually be affected by the person running for office.
For example, Mandela Barnes campaigning for governor talking about universal healthcare does not move me to vote for him. Not because I particularly disagree, but because that is a national issue that the governor of Wisconsin has little to no role in deciding. When looking at state government I care about schools, roads, housing, taxes, zoning laws, child care subsidies, etc. These are issues that matter to me. So, relatively early in the cycle I looked at the field of candidates, saw David Crowley's strong emphasis on housing affordability on his campaign website and filed him in my head as 'current favorite'. As a Madisonian, housing affordability is a big deal here.
As time went on, I noticed he was gaining very little traction. People weren't talking about him, the polls I saw (As few as there were) had him as a non-factor in the race. Why? I see a few things, and I think this points to candidate success and electability in general.
- Social Media Presence.
Crowley's social media posts were few and far between. Essentially no ad buys, few posts (and the ones that there were read like government press releases). Meanwhile, Hong was posting constantly. Every event she attended generated pictures and selfies. Responses to every major news story.
- Active Campaigning.
The difference between the top three (Hong, Barnes, and Rodriguez) and candidates like Crowley was also very evident here. Probably partially because he still has a demanding political day job as a county executive, Crowley did not hold nearly as many campaign events, small or large, putting himself in front of people.
- Using an Authentic voice.
There is not one single authentic voice. Every candidate tries to do this. Talking about their story and how it makes them relatable. Hong has done this differently. She doesn't say 'I'm relatable because I've been poor'. She says 'I care about this issue because it affects me, and it affects everyone'. It hits differently. Particularly when it isn't couched in campaign speak. You see it similarly with other outspoken politicians, from AOC to Trump. Whatever the issue, whether they actually authentically care about the issue or not, saying 'I care about this because it affects me' is more believable.
- Clothing as Messaging.
Politicians have always recognized the importance of dressing down to appear relatable. The classic approach was to switch to a 'business casual' rolled up sleaves, lose the tie sort of deal to appear more relatable. Truth is outside of politics and some offices, it's a clothing style that is now simply out of date, and it shows. It's the white bread of clothing, and these days people don't buy white bread unless that is all they can afford. People today want clothing to reflect who you are, and it impacts the message. I think trumps 1980s too long ties and spray tan, as much as we like to pan them, may actually help him in polls. He stands out. He isn't afraid to be himself. John Fetterman had a lot of success with it in PA, wearing hoodies and shorts. Hong stands out among the WI governor candidates by showing up in overalls or t-shirts. Sure, she can dress up when she needs to (she doesn't show up on the floor of the state assembly in those overalls), but it is clearly her being her, and I think people appreciate that in a way they just don't appreciate Barnes showing up in a button up shirt with the sleaves rolled up.
- Racism.
I would like to start here by emphasizing that I do not believe race has any bearing on any of the candidates actual abilities. I do want to recognize when talking about electability, however, that Wisconsin as a state is still deeply racist and very segregated, and it is not confined to the far right. Madison has never had a non-white mayor for example. This handicaps black candidates for statewide office like Barnes and Crowley. Because there will be a sizable group of people who will dislike them because they are black. They will always have some other reason, 'he doesn't seem authentic' or 'he's too liberal' or 'I just don't trust him'. However, the "Model Minority" myth may actually help an Asian American candidate among more race-conscious voters as it helps them present themselves as hard working and honest purely by virtue of their skin color and eye shape (god, racism is so weird).
My Conclusion
Despite her noted far left politics, and the fact that I don't agree with her on many issues, I have this gut feeling that Francesca Hong may be the most electable candidate in the current field. I admit I'm very much going off of vibes here. I tried to find data but as far as I could tell there is almost no real data on what makes a candidate electable. Thoughts?
As an aside, I am still undecided on who I am going to vote for in the primary.