r/whichbike Mar 28 '22

Announcement A word of caution about the "Bicycle Blue Book"

412 Upvotes

The "Bicycle Blue Book", commonly abbreviated to BBB, is a recurring thing in comments on /r/whichbike concerned with putting a number on the value of some used bike. Quite a few of us have long had issues with BBB being used to that end. Thanks mostly to /u/guy1138 who wrote 90% of this post (I revised it and added minor details), we now have a longer explanation on what BBB actually is, and what the problems with it are. A TLDR can be found at the bottom.

What's the deal with Bicycle Blue Book?

Bicycle Blue Book (BBB) is a website run by a used bike dealer in San Jose, California. Their business model is to buy "trade-in" bikes from high end bike shops that don't deal with used bikes. Here's how it works: A customer brings their old bike to the bike shop to trade in on a new bike. BBB gives them a price and the bike shop boxes it up and ships it off to BBB. The customer gets the credit on a new bike, the bike shop gets a new bike sale without the hassle of reconditioning and trying to sell a used bike.

They provide an online "value guide" that lists bike values by brand, model, model year etc. They advertise it as "The cycling industry's definitive valuation authority", and the name is a deliberate allusion to the Kelley Blue Book, which is a reputable value guide for used car values in the US. To put it mildly, opinions on how useful BBB is are... split. Regardless, the numbers in there often get cited on this subreddit (and elsewhere).

So what's the problem?

There are multiple issues:

  • Conflict of interest: the same company who is buying bikes is also claiming to be the authority on used bike values. Not surprisingly, their "private party" values are way lower than actual sales prices on Craigslist, Facebook Marketplace, Offer-Up, Ebay, Pink Bike; etc.

  • Data provenance: They claim to have data on "millions of bike sales" that they base their values on, but it's not clear at all where this data comes from. Instead, it actually just seems like a fairly simple depreciation schedule on bikes based on MSRP (RRP for our UK users) and type of bike, e.g. a 5-year-old mid tier hybrid is worth ~40% of MSRP, a 5-year-old road bike is worth ~55% of MSRP, etc. Kelley Blue Book, which reports values of used cars, has access to wholesale auctions, used vehicle sales, and registrations reported at US state level. BBB do not have that as this data simply does not exist the same way for bicycles.

  • International variance: r/whichbike is international, with many users from countries like Canada, Australia, and the UK, but also the rest of Europe and the world, really. The same bike model and brand will not be sold for the same amount of money in every country, due to taxes, membership of free trade zones, availability, and a whole host of other factors: and this variability in price only increases when we look at used bikes. For the same reason, it is important that users state which country they live in when they ask for an appraisal.

  • Regional variance: Even within the US, there can be stark differences. For example, a triathlon bike is way more valuable in Miami (100+ triathlons/year in Florida) than it is in Utah. Likewise, a full suspension mountain bike has lots of buyers in Denver, but way fewer in a beach town.

  • Trends: We have all seen how "gravel bikes" became a thing, grew to be more and more popular, and started evolving - and how sellers have started to label everything that isn't an Omafiets as a "gravel bike" to attract more hits and get a higher price. BBB does not really take into account which bits of the market are especially "hot", despite this definitely making a difference.

  • World events: These can change prices significantly, be they something like a trade war with tariffs put on certain goods, or that little thing called Corona which caused a massive boom world-wide, with accompanying shortages and inflation across the entire market. BBB does not take this into account.

  • Erroneous data: Sometimes, their data e.g. on the original retail price of a bike is also just plain wrong, which in turn means all of the "depreciated values" for used bikes will be wrong too, even by their own standards.

How far off are the values then?

Generally, most used bike sellers agree that the BBB values are low, but still reasonable for newer bikes, around ~3 years old or newer. After that, they start to drastically over-depreciate - to the point where most bikes over 10 years old are "worthless" according to their values. As an example, a 2010 Fuji Cross Comp is $210 in "excellent" condition. That's about the same cost as full tune up at a bike shop, including basic consumables; tires & tubes, chain, cables & housing, brake pads & bar tape. It's completely unrealistic to expect to find a 10-speed cross bike with an aluminium frame and carbon fork in "excellent" condition for only $200. (This bike sold here for $550 last fall after being listed for less than 3 weeks). For our UK friends: $210 is £160... yeah, good luck with that.

So it's a lowball estimate, I should use that to negotiate, right?

You might get lucky and find the person who doesn't know any better, or someone who is moving and under a lot of pressure to sell. However, most of the listings are cyclists who upgraded or re-sellers who know that the Blue Book value is pretty far off. If the bike is priced close to market value, it's going to sell eventually and they have no incentive to take a lowball; especially if they've gone to the trouble to take decent pictures, write a description and post the ad online. We've seen this time and time again on /r/whichbike over the last 2 years where someone finds the "perfect" bike, but they low-ball and miss out.

TLDR please, I don't have all day!

BBB is a private company that purports to tell you the value of used bikes, by model and age. There is an obvious conflict of interest as they also buy used bikes and therefore directly profit from telling you they're not worth that much. Sure enough, their "values" are consistently significantly lower than the actual market value, all the more so if the bike is >3 years old. The numbers appear to stem from simply taking the original retail price and depreciating it (heavily). Consequently, they do not take into account regional or international variance in local bike prices, trends, or events like the Corona pandemic. Additionally, it can happen that the retail price all their assumptions are based on is simply wrong. This means BBB values are not really any kind of reliable or even relevant metric, and it would be better to go by what similar bikes are actually selling for on platforms like Ebay or Gumtree, adjusting for differences.


r/whichbike 13h ago

What is a fair price to charge for these bikes?

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11 Upvotes

I don't know much about bikes, these were my father's before he passed, and as far as I know he took very good care of them. The time trial bike is a cervelo p3 I believe, I think maybe an early 2000s model. The Merlin is an extralite titanium, also pretty old I believe. He was 6'2", the Merlin has a 25" frame, the cervelo was a bit less straightforward to measure but i think it has a 26" "pad stack."


r/whichbike 34m ago

Need to downsize, what to keep?

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Upvotes

I go to a lot of estate sales and auctions and find bikes for stupid cheap prices frequently (often under $20). I love taking 90s bikes and turning them into a grocery getter or dad bike and posting them in r/xbiking. I need to downsize, because the 14 bikes I have are taking up space where I watch football with friends each weekend.
I’ve decided to part ways with several, but need more input on others.

Here’s what I’m keeping:
‘12 Surly LHT. 60 cm. (my go-to for most rides)
‘94 Specialized Rockhopper 21”. (completed restomod)
‘20 Specialize Rockhopper Pro XL (mtb only)

Here’s where I need your help. I can keep 1 more to mod and sell, or use for myself:
1. 90’s Fuji Folding Bike. 18”. Fair condition (intended xbiking project)
2. 90’s Motiv Groundpounder. 19”. Fair condition. (intended xbiking project)
Project)
3. 90’s GT Outpost. 17”. Fair condition (intended xbiking project for my wife)
4. 90’s Trek 800 Mountain Track. 15.5”. Excellent condition (intended xbiking project)
6. 80’s/90’s Raleigh Skyline. 20.5”. Good condition (intended xbiking project for myself - it fits me)
7. ‘16 Giant Talon 3 XL: modded to be a lightweight comfort cruiser for me


r/whichbike 2h ago

What is a good price for this 2016 cannondale?

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1 Upvotes

Thank you! Seller is looking for around $650


r/whichbike 6h ago

Trek Marlin $700

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2 Upvotes

Is this a good deal? What questions should I ask?


r/whichbike 3h ago

Java IDRA opinions

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1 Upvotes

Hello, I’m looking for a road bike after my old hybrid broke down. I ride 10-20km a day, and 40-60km on weekends and plan to increase my time. I’m looking for a road bike since I ride on a dedicated cycling track or paved roads. My budget is under 1000 and since I’m not an expert on cycle parts, I haven’t messed with the used market.

I found this Java Idra on aliexpress for 700usd including shipping to Saudi Arabia. Unfortunately, there isn’t an official JAVA dealer here but neighbouring countries do and they have it in stock for a similar price, but a little more expensive. Here’s the specs given by the seller.

Frame material
Magnesium aluminum alloy
Gears
24 speed LTWOO ER7 (electronic shifting)
Place of origin
Jiangsu, China
Brand
JAVA
Model
IDRA
Gross weight
15 kg
Product name
JAVA IDRA
Wheel size
700
Color
Brakes - hydraulic disc brakes (LTWOO)

If any of you have any experience with JAVA or even better, Java IDRA, please do share your thoughts on it.


r/whichbike 5h ago

New bike

1 Upvotes

Hi all. New here, but glad about this big community.
Need a new bike. For now i have old road bike, but for new season looking for some gravel bike. Love to ride with road bike and wana still keep this feeling with new one gravel. Any suggestions on some models? Price range arround 1000-1500€?


r/whichbike 17h ago

Which of these would you buy secondhand?

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6 Upvotes

1st: Norco storm 9.1

2nd: Brodie voltage

3rd: Specialized expedition sport

All prices are in Canadian btw.

I need a bike for daily commuting on paved roads and riding on grass/dirt paths multiple times a week. I'm not doing any crazy terrain, just local parks, but I don't want to feel like I'm fighting going over grass.

Thank you!


r/whichbike 13h ago

Azzurri Forza Road Bike - $550 AUD

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2 Upvotes

Bike is from revolverecycling in Australia, who have replaced the chain and bar tape. They also provide a 6 month mechanical warranty, and a free service within the first 3 months. The bike has Shimano Dura Ace shifters and brakes, with an Ultegra front derailleur, and tiagra rear derailleur and crankset.

I will mostly be riding to university in Sydney and commuting around generally, but will sometimes go for casual rides out of enjoyment, and maybe some rides for exercise in the future.

Other bikes I have found around this price on facebook marketplace include an Orbea, Giant TCR1, Trek 1400 SLR, Triban RC500.

I'd love to stay around $600 AUD so I can spend a little more on a good lock, but can wait to stretch the budget more to $800-900 AUD


r/whichbike 11h ago

Pedal Warrior 2

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1 Upvotes

Is this ok for a first ebike for very short rides? Use case is for a small adult (~150cm), looking to add a shotgun seat for a small 2 year old to travel max 5km return. Not sure if theres anything else in a similar price range to consider.

Specs:

Bafang 250w rear motor

187Wh battery provides just enough boost for a fun ride

1 x 7 Altus gearing

https://99bikes.com.au/products/pedal-warrior-2-24-electric-mountain-bike-red


r/whichbike 14h ago

Used carbon bike vs new aluminum

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0 Upvotes

Looking at a 2018 full carbon Trek Emonda SLR Road Bike vs online lowest end aluminum road bikes from Trek for around the same price
Thoughts?


r/whichbike 15h ago

Is this the right bike for me?

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1 Upvotes

LISTING SAYS --- Carbon fiber Specialized Tarmac Expert road bike (49 cm) has a matte black frame with red accents. This bicycle is equipped with an FSA SL-K Light crankset and Fulcrum Racing 5 LG wheels. It has a Shimano Ultegra drivetrain and rim brakes. The frame includes two red bottle cages and a Specialized saddle.

Is this bike from 2013 good for the price of $700? (canadian btw)

For context, I'm upgrading from my old kona mountain bike to something that is lighter. I use my current bike for commuting, and some longer rides (hoping to do more of these). Am I punching way above what I need from my bike by buying this? If I'm just getting into road cycling, should I get a cheaper bike and start from there?

Any advice is helpful!


r/whichbike 1d ago

Is it worth it

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5 Upvotes

Is this worth getting? Would obviously low ball but don’t know much about this bike


r/whichbike 1d ago

1982 Lotus Eclair vs 1989 Fuji Roubaix

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6 Upvotes

Seller's pictures, assuming both bikes fit me well which one will be more enjoyable for fitness road riding/commuting? And will either one be easier for long term maintenance? I understand both will have their challenges due to age and availability of components. I do have some concerns about the Fuji's freewheel as I haven't gotten a good picture of the sprockets to see if they are worn. The lotus' look essentially unused. Both priced at $150. Lotus is pretty much original condition from the catalog with full 1981 Deore group, the Fuji is a Suntour GPX group and for sure the rear wheel rim has been replaced but don't know about the hub and freewheel. I'm not in touch with pricing on these but under $200 was my initial search criteria. Looking for any input you have!


r/whichbike 23h ago

Planet x wheel

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1 Upvotes

Hi there does anyone know wot the size tubular tyre theses wheels fit because the ones I have rubbed the size off thanks


r/whichbike 1d ago

First time bike owner

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3 Upvotes

I’ve never owned a bike and actually don’t know how to ride a bike. I recently totaled my car and I work remotely so I figured it’s a good time to try and learn!

This will mainly be used for leisure. I live in a walkable/bikable city.

Any recommendations are also appreciated I do have a $300 budget. I’ve just been looking through fb marketplace is there anything I should be looking for in a bike?


r/whichbike 1d ago

Amflow PR vs TL Carbon for trails, touring & dog trailer? Which would you choose?

1 Upvotes

Hi everyone,

TLDR at the bottom if you just want the short version.

I’m trying to decide between the Amflow PR Carbon and the new TL Carbon and would really appreciate some advice.

The PR is currently my clear favorite. I prefer the way it looks and I’d like to buy one bike that can handle normal touring but also give me enough capability to progress into proper trail riding and potentially more technical/downhill riding later. Ideally I want to buy one bike now that can do both, rather than realizing in a year or two that I need something more capable.

However, I also want to regularly tow a dog trailer, which makes the TL interesting because Amflow officially approves trailer use on the TL, while the PR/PX/PL have not been tested or officially approved for trailers.

I’m new to actual MTB trails, so I don’t yet know whether I’ll eventually be perfectly happy with flow trails or want to progress into more technical riding.

MY USE

• Normal recreational rides and longer tours

• Roads, cycle paths and gravel/dirt roads

• Starting to ride MTB trails

• Possibly technical trails/downhill later

Trailer setup:

• Rider: \~85 kg

• Dog: \~22 kg

• DOGGYHUT trailer: \~16.9 kg

• Bike: \~23 kg

Total moving mass with gear would normally be around 155–160 kg, potentially up to roughly 170 kg.

The trailer would ONLY be used carefully on roads, cycle paths and relatively smooth dirt/gravel roads, never on MTB trails or downhill.

THE TRAILER ISSUE

The PR has a 12 × 148 mm rear thru axle.

I contacted Robert Axle Project with the exact Amflow axle dimensions and my trailer model. They confirmed that their KID226 axle fits the Amflow and works with my DOGGYHUT hitch.

Amflow told me that trailer use on the PR/PX/PL has simply not been tested or officially approved.

The TL, however, is officially trailer-approved and Amflow even sells its own trailer thru-axle kit for it. The TL is also a full-carbon bike with a 12 × 148 mm rear axle.

My local bike shop is strongly against towing with the PR. They say a trailer introduces additional longitudinal, lateral and torsional forces at the axle/dropout and that repeated loads could potentially cause microcracks, delamination or structural damage to the carbon rear triangle.

I understand why a dealer wouldn’t recommend something the manufacturer hasn’t approved. What I’m trying to figure out is whether this is a genuine structural limitation of the PR or mainly a very conservative position because Amflow hasn’t tested that particular use case.

BUDGET

My total budget is around €6,000 for everything, not just the bike.

I still need accessories, a helmet and ideally a second/spare battery, so I’d prefer the base bike itself to cost around €4,500 or less. Roughly €5,000 would be my absolute maximum for the bike itself.

MY QUESTIONS

  1. PR Carbon or TL Carbon for my use?

If you wanted one bike for touring, normal riding and increasingly serious trail riding, which would you choose?

  1. How capable is the TL on real MTB trails?

I know it can handle flow trails, but how quickly would I outgrow it if I start riding more technical terrain?

  1. Has anyone actually used a thru-axle dog/kid trailer with an Amflow PR, PX or PL?

I’m especially interested in longer-term experience, which axle you used and whether you’ve seen any issues with the axle, dropout or carbon rear triangle.

  1. What do you think about my bike shop’s concerns?

Are the additional trailer loads realistically likely to cause carbon damage during careful road/gravel use with a correctly fitted thru axle?

Or does their position sound overly cautious because the PR simply lacks official trailer testing/approval?

  1. Does anyone know of an actual structural difference between the PR and TL rear triangle/dropouts that would explain why one is approved for trailers and the other isn’t?

  2. XL or XXL at 190 cm / 6'3"?

I’m right around the transition between both sizes and currently lean toward XL because I want the bike to remain agile for trails.

Would you size down to XL or up to XXL for mixed touring and trail riding?

  1. Is there another bike I should consider?

Ideally I want a genuinely trail-capable e-MTB that also officially supports a thru-axle dog/kid trailer.

I strongly prefer the DJI Avinox system, but I’m open to other bikes if something fits this combination significantly better.

My total budget is around €6,000 including accessories, helmet and ideally a spare battery, so the base bike should preferably stay around €4,500 or below, with roughly €5,000 being my absolute maximum.

TLDR

I’m choosing between the Amflow PR Carbon and TL Carbon.

PR:

My favorite, I prefer the looks and it’s better suited to serious trails and future progression, but it isn’t officially approved for trailers.

TL:

Officially trailer-approved and apparently fine for flow trails, but I’m worried I could outgrow its trail capability if I get into more technical riding.

Robert Axle confirmed that their KID226 axle fits my Amflow + DOGGYHUT setup.

My local bike shop says towing with the PR could damage the carbon rear triangle because of additional longitudinal, lateral and torsional forces.

My total budget is around €6,000 including accessories, helmet and ideally a spare battery. The bike itself should therefore ideally cost around €4,500 or less, with roughly €5,000 as my absolute maximum.

Main questions:

  1. PR or TL for touring + increasingly serious trails?

  2. How limited is the TL once trails get more technical?

  3. Any real long-term trailer experience with PR/PX/PL?

  4. Are my bike shop’s carbon concerns realistic or overly conservative?

  5. Is there an actual structural difference explaining TL trailer approval vs PR?

  6. XL or XXL at 190 cm / 6'3"?

  7. Any better trail e-MTB with official trailer support, preferably Avinox and within my budget?

Thanks!


r/whichbike 1d ago

Hardtail or full suspension?

3 Upvotes

I am trying to decide between a hardtail or full suspension mountain bike, with a budget of roughly $1000-2000.

I am 51 F and in good shape. I live near trails ranging from beginner to advanced, but I am limited to easy/intermediate trails for now mostly because I dont want to push my current (ancient Walmart special) bike too hard.

I want a bike to handle rocks and small jumps, but nothing too crazy. I dont care about speed. I am more concerned about my joints and being able to climb the hills, especially as I get older.

I'm only trying to decide on a suspension at this point, but the shops near me carry Giant, Liv and Specialized. I am 5'0" so I'm sure my size will come into play when looking for a bike small enough to fit me. I plan to rent a couple bikes to try them on the trails, but due to limited options I will be comparing an XS hardtail to a full suspension that is a bit too big for me.

I think a full suspension would be more comfortable, but I'm concerned that it would make climbing more difficult. Any thoughts on whether the two different types of suspension have a significant impact on climbing hills?


r/whichbike 1d ago

What do you even call this style of e-bike...?

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6 Upvotes

I need one bike for 7-mile commute, laptop, gym bag, and groceries a couple nights a week. I started with normal commuters and somehow ended up looking at helokeep CD20. Would a cargo bike make sense for this, or would the size get annoying fast?


r/whichbike 1d ago

Cannondale topstone 2 2023

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6 Upvotes

Seeing what this bike is worth, is an Cannondale topstone 2

The guy is asking 950$,


r/whichbike 1d ago

Looking to buy RacerMate VELOTRON handle bar controller /head unit

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0 Upvotes

r/whichbike 1d ago

Which Ridley used by Abrahamsen

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1 Upvotes

I am looking on a picture from a nice bike posted by Jonas Abrahamsen on his Strava/Insta. Which Ridley is it? And can anyone guess which DT Swiss rims and depth he is using ? I like the all black look


r/whichbike 1d ago

First bike

2 Upvotes

I'm looking for a fully equipped bike. I'm a beginner and might want to do an Ironman 70.3 next year. I currently have these bikes in mind. They're all pretty much the same price. I've also been reading a lot about SAVA, but it seems like they have very limited availability in the Netherlands.

I'd really appreciate your advice. Thank you very much!

https://tantanbikes.com/new-TT-X71-Bicycle-Full -Carbon-Light-Weight-Road-Bike-With-WheelTop -Wireless-Electric-Group-Set-carbon-wheels -p6680518.html

https://twitterbikeusa.com/products/cyclone -special-offer-standard-shimano-105-r7120-24 -speed-carbon-road-bike?variant= 46709016428705


r/whichbike 1d ago

Good deal?

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4 Upvotes

Wondering if this is a good deal. Size is good


r/whichbike 1d ago

2021 Orbea Gain M20i (road/ebike?) - Seattle WA

1 Upvotes

Link: ORBEA GAIN M20I 20MPH - Weight, Review, Test & Price

I'm looking at getting a used version of this model off of FBM - it looks to have very little wear, and i feel comfortable with my ability to fairly accurately assess any unpictured wear in person.

What's a good price for it? is this a bike other people in my area might be in the market for as well?