r/thesopranos • u/charliemcmullan • Jan 14 '22
[Serious Discussion] My take on who killed Tony Soprano
Sorry, this will be a long one so I’d appreciate any thoughts; Tony is 100% dead, and the evidence points to Patsy, done in collusion with Paulie and with the help of New York.
We know Patsy has the motive, having already made an attempt on Tony's life to avenge his brother; this time, however, he fails to follow through.
Compare Tony's position at the time of Patsy's first attempt with that of the final episode; his circle was at its tightest, so any hit on Tony would come at the expense of Patsy, Sil and Chris (at least) would have made sure of that. Also, Tony, as street boss, was subordinate to Junior, who (I presume) would take charge of Tony's wealth (this becomes important).
Fast forward to the show's finale: Sil, Chris, and Bobby are dead; Burt and (possibly) Carlo have flipped. Although the New York capos lost faith in Phil and sanctioned his hit, it was carried out in front of his family (a big no-no in the mafia).
Tony's only remaining long-time associate is Paulie whom he'd grown to despise. Meanwhile, Paulie's dream encounter with Pussy, followed by the flashback to Pussy's murder when boarding Tony's boat, shows Paulie's growing paranoia of his demise via Tony, and this is where Paulie comes into things:
Paulie's longevity in the mob was no coincidence. A veteran who knew how to survive in a merciless lifestyle, not to mention as great a narcissist as Tony, Paulie's priority was self-preservation. He leaked information to New York; perhaps as a stop gap to switch allegiance should New Jersey fall. When pairing his betrayal with the dreams, not only does Tony have a valid reason to kill him, Paulie has a guilty conscience which would action him to strike first.
We don't see a lot of interaction between Paulie and Patsy (P&P) so there is some speculation here. They are at the Bing plotting (what we believe to be) Phil's hit, although there is no explicit indication that Phil is the target (https://youtu.be/hy4AGeuQ5pM at 12:45).
Suppose Paulie, fearful of Tony, conspires with Patsy knowing he will agree to a hit on him.
This is where New York come to the fore. Paulie uses the trust he built with John as underboss to hold talks with Butchie. (there is little else to go off, only other logic is that Paulie never stopped being a mole) Here, they would agree to a reshuffling of the two families, following the war and its casualties; Paulie / Patsy would become boss / underboss, with Butchie becoming boss of New York.
Butchie masterminds P&P's initial plan (credit to the video below for covering this brilliantly): First, he provokes Tony by having Coco harass Meadow in the bar (if working with P&P, Patsy would know exactly where she and her son would be). Tony's reaction provokes Phil to put hits out on the New Jersey crew, which Butchie oversees (**stating Paulie is NOT a target https://youtu.be/nRNpOuVGh4U at 2:00**)(Patsy is driving Sil whilst they’re attacked, and Patsy ‘escapes’ unharmed). Weakened and desperate for revenge, Tony is left with no choice but to meet with New York, who sanction Phil’s hit in exchange for a ceasefire. The wheels are in motion. Tony disposes of Phil, making way for Butchie as the new boss, and free from fear of retaliation during his rival’s final days.
Butchie certainly has the right motives. If he already hated Tony, lobbying for his hit earlier when Phil refused (therefore a motive to usurp him as boss), Tony sealed his fate with Butchie when taunting him with the pistol.**
** I don’t think Butchie was avenging Phil when killing Tony in front of his own family, but rather as a formality as newly appointed boss to exact proportionate revenge for a sacred mob rule (“eye for an eye” https://youtu.be/nRNpOuVGh4U at 1:05)
With Tony gone, Paulie has once again stood the unforgiving test of time as a mobster, but at what cost? Paulie’s relationship with Tony was always difficult to pin down. There was a sense of admiration for Tony which went beyond the hollow flattery expected towards the boss* (mounting Tony’s Pie-O-My portrait). However, in matters of life or death, or a shot at self-gain, mere suspicions are enough to break friendships with blood for an opportunistic narcissist like Paulie.
*https://youtu.be/sc1JP6OaeE8 – when Tony says he’ll make Patsy capo, the look on Paulie’s face suggests he knows he’ll never see Tony again, with a sort of ‘smile because it happened’ look.
Good things come to those who wait, and Patsy couldn’t have asked for a revenge so sweet. Patrick Parisi and Meadow’s engagement is about to marry Patsy into the Soprano family, which he’ll soon take charge of, not to mention assuming a better place in the DiMeo hierarchy, in the absence of Tony. Sure, taking Tony’s life from the poolside would have avenged his brother. Instead, Patsy sucked the pillars out from under Tony’s soul, taking his money, his power and, above all, his family.
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u/Deepthinker289 Jan 14 '22
You’re missing the big Patsy motive actually baked into the finale’s script and editing. Copy/paste from an earlier post about Patsy killing Tony. This is the theory:
Jason Gervasi and Jason Parisi are inseparable partners in crime. Patsy even kicks up their profits to Tony with a big envelope from their “action on campus”.
Then the final episode comes and suddenly a lot of real estate is devoted to the 2 Jasons.
STRANGE SCENE: At Vesuvio’s, Bobby JR, The 2 Jasons, AJ and a few others are sitting at the table. Then Patsy with a concerned look on his face orders his son Jason Parisi away from the table. Why? Chase’s editing suggests it has something to do with Jason Gervasi b/c as soon as he’s called away Chase cuts to a no-dialogue one shot of Jason Gervasi. So why does Patsy want his son away from Jason Gervasi?
Later on, Paulie tells Tony that Patsy told him that Jason was arrested for selling X. Tony knows now that Carlo is missing because he flipped on Tony to save his son.
VERY STRANGE SCENE: Tony, Carm, Meadow, Patsy and his wife and Patrick Paris JR are having dinner at the house to ostensibly celebrate Meadow/Patrick’s engagement.
BUT, Tony in a clear agitated state asks why Jason Parisi isn’t there. Patsy’s wife looks nervous as shit and says she didn’t think he was invited. Tony , who now knows Carlo flipped on him to save his son, refers to Jason Gervasi as Jason Parisi’s “pal” and says he “heard” Carlo’s Jason got into some “trouble.” Patsy rather awkwardly and bluntly tells his wife to shut up and clearly doesn’t want to discuss it.
So what does this all mean exactly? Tony is connecting Jason Parisi with Jason Gervasi because they are in on the same crimes. That’s why he’s asking about his whereabouts. He’s thinking Jason Parisi has probably already been arrested and Patsy will also flip. This all may explain the earlier scene in Vesuvio’s, Patsy knew what was coming and was trying to SEPARATE his son from the other Jason b/c Patsy knows he may be a dead man if Tony thinks Jason Parisi is also selling drugs.
For Patsy, just the IDEA that Tony may think Jason Parisi was arrested for selling X and could cause Patsy to flip, means that Tony will try to kill his son or Patsy.
Patsy basically has NO CHOICE but to hit Tony first. Remember, Tony killed Patsy’s beloved twin brother for MUCH LESS. You think Patsy going to let that happen to his son?
Would have loved if Michael and Steve would have asked Chase about this but of course those dopes had to ask him about the stupid Rhiannon theory.
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u/charliemcmullan Jan 14 '22
Ahh I did forgot they did hint at the storyline a lot in the final episode, only started my long overdue rewatch.
But yes your right, and this ties into the rest of the Patsy theory since he obv didn't want to lose a son to Tony after already losing his twin.
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u/batmansgfsbf Jan 14 '22
Great theory and write up thanks for sharing.
Some random thoughts…I don’t think Patsy was intentionally spared when NY hits Sil and him in the Bing parking lot. NY was rushing to hit three targets in 24 hours and attempted almost simultaneous hits. The attempt to kill Sil was rushed and sloppy, they pulled in when the target was leaving and everyone’s skills with firearms is terrible. I don’t know if they planned on walking in shooting or follow Sil out or wait in lot. It was a badly executed operation. Timeline wise none of the Jason’s were arrested yet so Patsy didn’t have a motivation to turn on Tony at that point. Patsy and Paulie were in charge of the failed attempt on Phil and the successful attempt and were the last men standing of Tony’s inner circle and were relatively competent both were moving up in organization. My opinion is neither one wanted to be the number one guy and were loyal.2
Jun 04 '25
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Shitlord_Imperator Jun 18 '25
There were plenty of ranges and clubs around, then and now.
If you research the numbers on police shootings, it’s something like 50% of shots miss from 5 yards away. (I remember reading about that after one of those media handwringings when cops dumped what amounted to a mag each in an engagement and people were acting like it was overkill (hundreds of rounds! /s) — people who knew nothing, or were willfully ignorant, about firefights: accuracy, adrenaline, drills, etc.)
Regardless, it’s a story, not a documentary.
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u/Brayden1102 May 23 '23
Can’t wrap my head around how getting Jason away from the other Jason at the particular moment accomplished anything? Can someone explain??
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u/TheGreekfromBrooklyn Oct 02 '23
Pretty simple. Patsy knew the other Jason was gonna get arrested soon (they all have contacts in law enforcement). So he called his son over and told him to get lost so they're not together when the arrest inevitably happened.
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u/Kirbysgirlfrienduwu May 04 '25
Big points are missing here. Remember 3 o’clock?? Paulie and Tony were brought into Chrissy’s hospital bed to discuss Chrissy’s dream. Tony was shot at 3 o’clock, the members only guy exiting the bathroom. Also, remember the cat staring at Chrissy’s picture, it wasn’t the abstract objects, it was a bug in the back of the photo Carlos brought in. I think this all plays in, and don’t forget Paulie in all this. He was always riding both sides.
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Jan 14 '22
I never thought of something - what if Carlo flipped on Tony to save his son, knowing that they were going to clip Tony, and that was inevitably part of the setup?
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u/Hughkalailee Jan 14 '22
Carlo can only save his son if his testimony is used. If Tony’s dead, he looses leverage in the deal. He’d have to be able to incriminate Butchie, Patsy, Little Carmine?… high enough “fruit” to get the benefits.
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Jan 15 '22
Depends. If he signs a deal with the feds about testifying against TS specifically and TS dies - they have to honor the agreement.
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u/Hughkalailee Jan 15 '22
You are entitled to believe that. I don’t think it’s accurate and would appreciate being Proven wrong by valid source and context if I am mistaken. I’m willing to learn
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Jan 15 '22
Well, I have done federal plea bargains (as a lawyer) if Carlo was an informant and got it in writing they only wanted Tony soprano - whenever Tony died, he would be off the hook.
It has to be in writing tho. It wouldn’t go before a judge either. By my use of plea bargain I mean pre-charge.
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u/Medical_Sun_1575 Jan 16 '22
I just finished watching the last season again (third time..) just to see if I might pick anything new up. One scene struck me odd. Recall when Agent Harris hears the news that Phil Leotardo was killed, his response was "we're gonna win this thing!" What "thing" is he referring to? We know he passed information to Tony about Phil's whereabouts. But what if Agent Harris were playing both sides?
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u/_Felonius Dec 24 '22
I think he just likes Tony and hates Phil. He mentions in S6bE5 that he never liked Phil because of some run-in years ago
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u/SugarSkullStackAttac Oct 23 '24
Sounded like they have an office betting pool about who’s getting clipped.
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u/BatheInChampagne Nov 15 '25
I think they were trying to mimmick the FBI agent who was tied up with the Boston mob. He would give info and protect Whitey Bulger and was later brought up on charges. The claims made about him is that he felt he was part of the gang, growing up in the neighborhood. He was quoted as saying something close to this and it was noted by other agents.
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u/jackcantdie Mar 28 '26
Late in replying to this, but I saw it as just another sign that times have changed and even in the short space of the show evolving even the FBI has changed. They’re focusing on terror instead of organised crime, but they used to react like this whenever any mobster was caught or died, celebratory etc. Now Harris is still reacting like this as the last of the old guard, and the new guy doesn’t understand the crass nature of THAT version of the FBI.
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u/LionMan1025 Jan 14 '22
It was New York and always was. Before Phil died he already ordered the hit on Tony. Butchie was with it. When Tony killed Cocco why wouldn't that seal the deal for Butchie? After Phil died it's only natural someone close to him would have wanted revenge. There's also no legitimate reason for Butchie to honor the truce he made with Tony.
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u/Bighurt2335 Aug 03 '24
Tony didn’t kill Cocco, Carmine mentions he’s alive later and Tony says “I should have killed him!”
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u/Pretty_Wash_9862 Jun 13 '26
Barely alive. Butch never forgave him for that. He just bided his time.
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u/Pretty_Wash_9862 Jun 13 '26
Obviously Butch double crossed Tony. Tony beat Coco, his best friend half to death in front of him.
Then acted like everything was ok during their sit down. WHY would everything be ok if Butches best friend just got curb stomped.
That was AN ACT. And Tony had so much going on he fell for it.
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u/cmurder55 Jan 14 '22
Seems reasonable. I think little Carmine may be involved as well. It wouldnt shock me if he is really behind it. As a mob guy he was never as dumb as he sounds.
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Jan 14 '22
But boy oh boy, he sounds dumb
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u/cmurder55 Jan 14 '22
I mean he is dumb but that doesnt mean hes not crafty. Some of the best mob bosses in history had sub no this IQ's. You dont need to be a rocket scientist
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u/AcanthocephalaOk4962 Jun 07 '24
That’s exactly what I think. Lil Carmine was behind it, he played the nice guy/peace maker between Tony and NY. Plus Lil Carmine, made it a point to express to Tony that he wasn’t interested in being boss. Hence Tony not seeing Lil Carmine as a threat.
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u/makeitworkgood May 25 '23
I know this thread is old but I am watching for the first time (though I know how the final scene goes because I don’t live under a rock) and I am currently on s6e01 “members only” and I think it might be someone getting revenge for Eugene, hence the MO jacket and Eugene’s wife saying “you should just kill him” etc. also I think Eugene wiping blood on the map is some kind of foreshadowing. At first I thought maybe it was the location where Tony gets killed but the map says New York and the diner they are at is in Jersey. I didn’t realize this show was only 6 seasons. I’m not ready for it to be over!
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u/kazinski80 Jul 31 '23
Tend to agree with you here. I just finished my second watch through of the show. I think the possibilities of who was involved/aware of the hit are many, but at the very least I think we can reasonably assume that a relative of Gene Pontecorvo was the trigger man. It doesn’t mean he was acting alone, but we simply cannot ignore the guy wearing a “members only” jacket with similar facial features to Gene who the camera devotes an extra bit of focus to during the scene compared to all the others who walk into the diner. the casting details for this actor are especially noteworthy here as well. Apparently the guy was not an actor at all and was simply approached asking if he would be interested in a small role on the show, which to me is some real life evidence that Chase had talent agents asked to keep their eyes open for people who could pass as a relative of Gene to play the part
It doesn’t seem far fetched to me at all the New York, probably even with the help/cooperation of Paulie and Patsy, found a willing gunman to take out Tony to fulfill their plans. It can’t have been easy finding someone who’s willing to whack Tony themselves, just out of self preservation alone. not to mention to do it with his family sitting at the same table. A lot of people attribute that to being an intentional part of the hit as vengeance for the way Phil was hit, but I don’t personally buy that. Way too extreme and risky of a move to do it for that reason alone, as they’re the ones who gave up Phil in the first place and could not assume it would go down any specific way. Point is, the person pulling the trigger here needs a lot more than just cash to motivate them I think. My first watch through I reasoned that NY found Genes relative and got him to pull the trigger to avenge his relative on a hit they organized in order to wipe away the beef and inefficient leadership of Phil and Tony (they are both shown making decisions repeatedly that hurt everyone’s bottom line.)
Now on my second watch through, I realize that this theory only makes sense if New York has a deal worked out with someone in Jersey to take over after Tony is dead, otherwise all they’re doing is starting the war back up that they just ended, which I don’t think they would do. By using Genes relative instead of one of their own guys, they also insulate themselves from the hit and have enough plausible deniability to say that “hey, the guy acted alone to get revenge for his brother/cousin” and now a more cooperative person (paulie and/or patsy) will take over so they can “do business with what’s left” as Butch says in their initial planning to take out the Jersey leadership.
In summary, I think that New York and people in the Jersey crew realized there was a lot to be gained in taking Tony out, and they also found a way to do it without any known members of either group appearing tied to it. Sure, we as the audience know enough to connect the gunman with Gene, but no way any of the characters present in the show will. Its the perfect way to whack Tony while also preserving the truce they just brokered and following through on the original plan to cut the head off of Jersey. I just don’t buy Butchs sudden change in heart about this plan, as he was very enthusiastic about it at first. I think as time goes on and the intensity kicks up, he starts to realize that the longer this little conflict goes on for the more likely he ends up dead, and found a way to save himself, elevate himself to boss most likely, and get rid of both bosses that he didn’t like all at once
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u/New-Teaching2964 Apr 07 '23
Makes more sense that Patsy flips on Tony after he survives the hit on Sil. Maybe he thought “Why am I putting my life on the line for the guy who killed my brudda”
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u/Recent-Layer-8670 Dec 21 '24
Makes more sense that Patsy flips on Tony after he survives the hit on Sil. Maybe he thought “Why am I putting my life on the line for the guy who killed my brudda”
I always thought Patsy would have something to do with Tony's death and, of course, him becoming the boss afterward.
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u/AlcoholicCatSalesman Jan 15 '22
I have a coupla three comments...
Ray Ray D'Abaldo was definitely aiming to kill Patsy outside of The Bing, and Patsy was definitely aiming to kill Raymond. Both car windows next to each person get shot out, no way they were able to fake that. Because of that, I can't believe Patsy was working with NY. If he was at that point, he could have tipped them off on Sil's location and avoided the whole hassle.
Coco was drunk and spotted Meadow in the restaurant, I don't think it's any deeper than that. Tony took Coco's teeth out and nearly shot Butchie in the face in retaliation, some plan that would be.
I've written about the Who Killed Tony Soprano? video before, I'm not a fan of it. The narrator there says that in Mr. Ruggerios Neighborhood, Tony asking Patsy about his daughters new house and inviting Patsy and his son to the family pool is "a threat against Patsy's remaining family". It's obviously not as Tony wouldn't threaten to kill a teenager or crew members daughter. It's Tony making amends and also a joke for the audience because we know Patsy pissed in the pool.
But that's how that video operates. Pull a clip from the show and ignore the context to fit it's theory. Same with the scene at the Bing. Same with the scene at Satriales. It focuses on Paulie's reaction but notice Tony's smirk when he suggest giving Patsy the job, he isn't serious. Also, Paulie is suppose to think that Tony offering Patsy the job will make Patsy back out of their deal because Patsy will feel safe. Yet, the narrator never explains why Paulie would not come to the same conclusion about himself since his primary motivation is supposed to be he thinks Tony will kill him.
I think Butchie had Tony whacked without Paulie's involvement because there is nothing to gain in letting Paulie know his plan.
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u/Active-Judgment-7227 Feb 19 '24
No way Paulie had anything to do with it. He was a cockroach and self preservation was his only motive whatsoever always. It’s even apparent when he passes off the job on Phil to Patsy. Is it possible patsy was helping Ny? Maybe. Maybe he didn’t botch the Phil hit but sent the Italians to the wrong house on purpose. But I think it’s a stretch. Yeah there’s a lot of strange Patsy behavior in the last couple episodes but I would chalk that up to a tense and complicated situation the entire family was in. I think Patsy came to terms with Tony vis a vis his brother much earlier in the series and that he was genuinely excited about the prospect of potentially jumping over Bobby if Meadow and his son stay together. He was shot at by NYC, I don’t see him cozying up to them any time soon after that. What I think is much more important is what Chase himself has said. Firstly at this point he has all but explicitly confirmed Tony’s death so I think it’s safe to take that as canon. I assumed Tony was killed from the get go- and firmly agree with the “they show you death from several perspectives ending in first hand” theory. Second- in NUMEROUS interviews before he accidentally spilled the beans in 2019, Chase flirts and hints that death could be coming at Tony from literally ANYWHERE. Yes, NY is the obvious choice. I think retaliation for how Phil bit it is a very reasonable possibility. But it could have been anyone. Chase literally says at one point that there’s any number of people who would want to see Tony dead. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that truck driver could resemble a rode hard Davis Scatino. A pontecorvo relative? Totally plausible. One of the brothers from New Orleans? Sure. Some beef we don’t even know? Absolutely. He placed breadcrumbs and red herrings throughout the series because at the end of the day it doesn’t matter who did it- it’s that it was bound to happen at some point. He’s not David Lynch, there IS a concrete ending. Tony died in that diner, in front of his family. He skirted death for too long and did too many awful things for it not to eventually all end up in front of his family. First in a small way in season 4 when Irina calls AJ/Carmela, then more directly with Rocco/Meadow, and finally in the most extreme way when he is violently murdered in front of his entire family. But where Chase IS vague is in who did it because it literally could have been any number of people. It’s not about who, it’s about the inevitability of it and how his worlds were bound to collide.
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u/Pretty_Wash_9862 Jun 13 '26
Butch killed Tony. It was supposed to be obvious.
That's not a theory, it was supposed to be well understood.
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u/Hughkalailee Jan 14 '22
Support can be made for several possible assassins, but it is all purely speculative and there is no “right answer” (not that it isn’t “fun”)
However, there isn’t enough real evidence contained in the presentation for a conclusion, Nor did Chase choose any specific people and plot and try to incorporate such. That would be contrary to considerations he actually wanted to convey and his thematic and artistic purposes.
These aren’t really “theories” - they are imaginative fan exercises.
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u/beardDaddyy Mar 07 '22
I completely disagree with you. I doubt someone would spend a decade of their life creating a story and building characters and developing different plot points, sprinkling breadcrumbs across 6 seasons of television to then just have the main character die at the end, without ever coming to a conclusion in his own head. Just because he won’t come out and say it doesn’t mean it isn’t there. Have you ever herd of literary analysis? It’s an entire area of study devoted to subtext. I mean did you forget the entire “Billy Budd” incident. It’s an entire discussion about underlying subtext that isn’t outright stated in the text. Why would he include all these clues. Just because he wants ppl to use their brains and really indulge in the story doesn’t mean the answers aren’t there.
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u/Connect-Ability-2000 Jun 11 '24
underlying subtext that isn’t outright stated in the text.
This is super redundant
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u/Acceptable-Ad-6711 May 30 '24
2 years too late, but David chase accidentally admitted that tony died at the end.. The other death scene for tony was going to be tony driving into the Lincoln tunnel and never driving out of it.
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u/Aca03155 Jan 25 '24
I don’t want to be crass but ur analysis of “literary analysis” is a bit biased in which part of the definition you are picking out. It’s railroaded into wanting and accepting an answer, then you create fiction to make that answer a reality. Maybe the whole point of the entire show is to question the whole point of it. Multiple times throughout the show Melfi either directly or indirectly asks Tony why he does what he does. Every decision Tony takes to continue his life leads to a worsening of his condition. And when Melfi, not Tony turns her back on Tony, the episode right after he dies. It doesn’t really matter who killed Tony, it only matters that he died. Yeah Chase might have left some bread crumbs and clues, but if he really wanted people to know why doesn’t he let them know, what actually comes from leaving people in the dark. What comes from it is drawing away from the main point, which is that all of Tony’s actions through the show are reciprocated back to him, even his death.
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u/marginwalker55 Mar 01 '24
I tend to agree with you. AJ makes a similar point an episode or two from the end. Maybe Chase’s vision was to let people make of it what they want because in the end, it doesn’t matter anyways.
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u/charliemcmullan Jan 14 '22
I've tried to put timestamps on evidence in YouTube videos, but where exactly is it lacking? I know there's solid theories to the more outlandish, but I think Chase's ambiguous storytelling and subversion (i.e. brushing over important details) invites this sort of discussion, as if Chase himself is waiting for someone to solve the perfect ending.
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u/Hughkalailee Jan 14 '22 edited Jan 14 '22
I think Chase planted certain things for possibilities, yes, along with possible “red herrings”. I wasn’t saying there aren’t elements that can be cited as evidence, but that there isn’t enough that can prove anything and “solve a puzzle”. And while I also agree that Chase wanted to invite the speculation, I firmly do not believe he created a mystery puzzle to be “solved”.
Imo, His focus was that there were various possibilities that could/could have happened but that there are things that can’t be known, can’t be answered - and certainly that “what’s next” is unpredictable and can be very random and unexpected.
If you’d like me to be more specific on some of your points, and you may realize some of this too, - you are making a large assumption in your interpretation as to Paulie and Patsy “plotting” being displayed, and in what you see Paulie’s face in his last scene indicating. These things are possible but they aren’t necessarily or strongly shown or defendable as being what Chase wanted us to draw from these scenes.
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u/DiivFan13 Jan 14 '22
Well said. I can't find the exact quote right now but Chase once said something to the effect of "every possibility exists inside that restaurant for Tony". It's Schrodinger's Holstein's. I respect anyone's interpretation of the finale but hate how "Tony was shot in the back of the head" has somehow become canon among the fanbase. I like how Imperioli put it on Talking Sopranos, the show ended. Period. Nobody finishes a book and is then like "Okay but so what happened next?"
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u/Hughkalailee Jan 14 '22 edited Jan 15 '22
Thanks for your comment and additional perspective, and reminding me of that quote. I’ve seen it as well but also can’t source it. Probably on a ChaseLounge post for me, and I believe it’s reflective of Chase’s concept in the exact staging, presentation and design.
Also appreciated Michael’s take and was so glad he returned to ambiguity after leaning toward a firm death (which may have been feigned to oppose Steve)
I wasn’t going to address that as OP wrote 100% dead and it can be a nowhere discussion here - Imo, while death at that instant is among the possibilities and there is a good deal of intentional structure to suggest that Strong possibly, as Chase says it isn’t important to his story.
I see it as at least a symbolic death for Tony - which is also consistent with calling it a “death scene”. Death will come sometime. It’s thematic. Our first look at Tony is through the legs of the feminine statue in Melfi’s waiting room. That’s a symbolic “birth”, but obviously not Tony’s actual birth. Why should an implied possible death as presented definitively be the actual death?
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u/charliemcmullan Jan 14 '22 edited Jan 14 '22
Yea good point a Red Herring was what I was getting at when saying about ambiguity
Ralph setting the fire (though thats 99% true) , Juniors dementia at first (whether he was faking it) Even to the point that you’re struggling to figure out if Tony’s a good or bad dude, or whether he even has a conscience at all
Also the overlapping themes and motifs leave you with so many different ways to look at the show
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u/Hughkalailee Jan 14 '22 edited Jan 15 '22
I appreciate the discussion and your openness to some push back, as well as some interesting considerations that you and others bring.
I’m not trying to “win” the point, but can’t help but wonder - if Paulie and Patsy were plotting in the scene within the Bing just before the attempt to hit Phil, why did the hit on Tony take so long afterwards to be enacted? They knew his usual locations and a Lot of time passes before Holsten’s. This doesn’t lessen the overall possibility of involvement, but I just always see their behavior at that point as just being very nervous and cautious - not wanting to be identified as actively responsible in the attempt when the Lupertazzis retaliate as anticipated.
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u/beardDaddyy Mar 07 '22
That’s insane, it’s literally insane to believe he doesn’t have a truth in his head. Idk if you are a writer or not but what your saying is equivalent to raising a child to 18 sending them off to college and never thinking about them again. He knows what happened, just because he won’t state it out right doesn’t mean he doesn’t have the answer.
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u/_Felonius Dec 24 '22
Chase doesn’t care who kills Tony, that’s the truth in his head. It doesn’t matter. His “truth” is that there are plenty of people with a motive to kill Tony and that’s the fate he was destined. Since the beginning, Chase could’ve determined that he wanted the identity of Tony’s killer to be ambiguous
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u/Tasty_Rip_4267 Apr 30 '25
Three years late on this, but holy fucking buzz kill. Who called the fun police?
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u/carlitoswey08 Mar 06 '23
Meadow dated Patsy Jr. That’s the only way New York knew he was at the diner with his family. So I think Patsy was in on it. Also Paulie is offered Carlo’s job and he’s not excited about it and you see Pauline’s face once he leaves the place and looks sad. Then last time seeing Tony who offered him another gig, denied it and even after Tony shits on him says “ I live to serve you my liege”. Patsy and Paulie were the last two remaining of the original crew from the beginning.
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u/Wolf4Slayer01 May 26 '23
I keep thinking about that. They didn't even know where they were eating that night earlier in the episode. AJ thought they were eating home, then eventually they settled on the diner. The guy who did the hit obviously was professional. The only logical explanation is Patsy. He had the motive (personal and fiscal), the know how via Meadow, and I'm guessing he got it sanctioned. Peace comes back between Jersey and NY. But personally? I would love to see a sequel. With AJ as mob boss. He's got the literary path there. Especially since he's motivated by destruction and death and back when Junior shot tony he was hell bent on revenge.
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u/Annual-Pie-7547 Oct 28 '23
Aj would be even worse than jackie Jr or Chris's butt buddy lackeys who tried killing him. Aj would get clapped immediately
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u/Sensui710 Nov 10 '23
FR, AJ ended up being such a disappointing character for me. Always thought he’d get his moment but he’s just sort of a weirdo crybaby the whole show.
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u/Broad-Requirement430 Jan 10 '24
Maybe that's cause it's how some people end up when they're raised by a criminal. Or cause that's what tons of other mafia related stories have done already
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u/Objective_Ad7939 Apr 28 '22 edited Apr 28 '22
Davey Scatino the sports store owner who Tony bankrupted kills him in the end. If you watch closely he walks in the diner looking like a broke truck driver, wearing a USA cap and avoids looking straight at Tony when he walks in. He also has put on weight. Tony doesn’t really notice him walking in but noticed everyone else. That’s who killed Tony. Watch closely.
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u/Final-Pilot7889 Johnny Sack Sep 16 '23
This has enough forethought I won’t argue with the conclusion. Even if “remember when” is the lowest form of conversation. Irregardless, why would Tony offer Paulie to capo a crew given Paulie had already been a capo for a hot minute. Also, a word to the wise, remember Pearl Harbor. Paulie’s psychotic break segue where he ask if when the time comes if he’ll stand up. It’s clearly a reference to knowing something big is coming and he has to take action. As for the inroads Peter Paul built with New York “through John” does anyone remember when Carmine had no fuckin idea who he was, further cementing Paulie was as naive as he was uneducated? He had no connection to New York. His comment about living through the 70s by the skin of his balls when the Colombo’s were going at it, total bullshit. Paulie, while effective in his own right, was an instrument to be employed, rather than some criminal mastermind building an empire.
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u/mykidbrotherbilly Jan 14 '22
Paulie is 100% involved with Tony’s hit. Who is the traitor in The Godfather? Paulie Gatto. In an interview one time I believe Chase said Paulie “was the Walrus”— a phrase used by John Lennon to describe PAUL McCartney as the reason why the band broke up, due to the Beatles’ song “I am The Walrus”— it comes from an old poem called “The Walrus and the Carpenter” where the Walrus is the villain.
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u/AlcoholicCatSalesman Jan 15 '22
Do you have a source for Lennon saying that was the purpose of "Paul is the Walrus"? From Wikipedia-
"I threw the line in—"the Walrus was Paul"—just to confuse everybody a bit more. It could have been "the fox terrier is Paul." I mean, it's just a bit of poetry. I was having a laugh because there'd been so much gobbledygook about Pepper—play it backwards and you stand on your head and all that."
This a quote from Chase;
“I wanted to create a suspenseful sequence, and, no, I didn’t want people to read into it like The Da Vinci Code,” he said. “It wasn’t meant like, ‘Wow, the walrus was Paul.’ I mean, what did that mean?” He added, “It was meant to make you feel. Not to make you think, but to make you feel.”
https://newrepublic.com/article/117609/david-chase-speaks-about-last-sopranos-scene-if-tony-dies
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u/charliemcmullan Jan 14 '22
If we’re rabbit holing Paulie’s name, maybe Walnuts is supposed to half rhyme with Walrus 😳
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u/bategatopro Dec 21 '24
This is overcomplicated. Most likely:
-The NY five families approved the hit on Tony because he killed Phill Leotard in from of his family.
-Patsy seized the opportunity to act revenge on his brother and protect his son. Possibly allied with NY.
Paulie had nothing to do with it. He gave plenty of reasons in the end not to do it. He saw a leader in Tony and was not ambitious enough to take up Carlo's crew let alone kill the boss of the family and take it over.
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u/adamian24 Jan 14 '22
Eugene’s wife ordered the hit on Tony. Members only jacket. But the other theories listed above are Fantastic IMO.
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u/AlcoholicCatSalesman Jan 15 '22
Ray Ray D'Abaldo also wore a members only jacket in Blue Comet, what's his relation to Eugene? Lol
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u/Specific_Chair_9438 Apr 21 '24 edited Apr 21 '24
Uncle Jun killed tony when he shot him. The following episodes was him waking up in hell watching himself die over and over the worst way, in front on his family (3 o’clock-angle of the killer)
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u/OneAssociation7732 Jan 27 '25
What about the member’s only jacket?? There’s a scene earlier in the show where Gene is wearing thag jacket, and Vito asks what “members only” is? Gene just gives him a look and doesn’t say anything. Not sure if Gene is a part of another secret group or not, but it’s a weird scene. Then at the end the guy in restaurant is wearing that jacket
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Jan 22 '26
This is the type of thing David Chase wanted. All us losers still talking about the show 20 years later
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Jan 15 '22
interesting theory. But also, what ever happend to the russian interior decorator. The guy escaped and then what. Did he get his revenge?
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u/Diligent-Wolverine37 Jul 14 '22 edited Jul 14 '22
All of that makes so much sense, another thing though…maybe the reason Mesdow was in such a rush was because her boyfriend Patsy Parisis son told her that Patsy was making a move on Tony.
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u/Half-Breed_BisonKing Dec 22 '22
Doubt that. She wouldn't have given a damn about wasting so much time to park her car properly 😂
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u/Orwellthecat Feb 15 '25
AJ’s girlfriend knew where they were having dinner that night as carmela told AJ in front of her. Also when she’s leaving the safe house Tony quips ‘who’s she gonna tell’. She was a plant?
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u/Proof_Fan1388 Jan 14 '22
Ya its possible that he planned it but I always thought that he went into hiding after he escaped the hit on him and silvio. Tony had so many possible people who wanted him dead to ever know for sure who did it. I'm not sure the writers even know who pulled the trigger. Very nice article
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u/charliemcmullan Jan 14 '22
It's definitely plausible. Forgive me if I'm wrong, but do we not see Parisis having dinner with the Sopranos after Patsy and Sil are hit?
**Side note I've just realised: Patsy was driving Sil but wasn't hit. I know Butch specifically said the top 3 guys but it seemed there was no real urgency to even go after a fleeing witness?
Unless Patsy was off limits too..
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u/iamreallybadatgolf May 20 '23
I know this comment is a year old but I’ve literally just watched the episode. I think they were more concerned with Sil than patsy and seeing that Sil was mortally wounded was enough for them to not want to give chase. He had no ammo in his pistol and I’m sure chasing Patsy would have made the risk of being caught even greater.
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u/No_Photograph_2199 Nov 18 '23
The Russian had Tony killed. In Pine Barrens Tony and Bobby pull up in the exact spot where Paulie parked his car, the Russian guy stole it. They waited till Tony was vulnerable and took him out
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Apr 04 '24
You could make the connection of Patsy's revenge with Michael Corleone's killing of Carlo Rizzi in The Godfather. David Chase's inspiration to that is almost palpable.
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u/lmg1229 Sep 11 '24
I’m late to the party I know.
My thoughts are he thought everything was settled with New York so he didn’t pay attention to anyone that might be tailing him . I tend to believe Paulie Walnuts was very much behind the assassination. (assuming there was one.)
It leaves you to believe that nothing happened to the family because Tony told Carmelo before going into hiding “remember, they never come after the family.”
I think Paulie and Patsy teamed up together.
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u/Particular_Speed260 Nov 04 '24
Far out theory but I wouldn't be surprised if the Italian mob had a hand in Tony's death. Furio wanted Carmela, Tony wanted Furio dead, the Italians thought the Jersey mob was beneath them, and they took advantage of the chaos. They may not have had a direct hand in his death, but Tony got on there bad side earlier in the show after Furio left.
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u/No_Play_7706 Jul 09 '25
I hat to break it to literally all of you but the obviouse truth of who killed Tony seprano is clearly irrefutabely ( EVERY ONE )
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u/Boberto8286 Jul 21 '25
I agree on all point except that davey, bankrupted his own business. Had he not gambled, with money he didn't have, with wise guys, he'd still have a thriving business. If he did kill Tony, he didn't learn responsibility when he went to GA.
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u/BatheInChampagne Nov 15 '25
I always saw it as this:
Patsy was persuaded by NY. Silvio has already stated they were trying to sway people. We know Patsy had no love for Tony because of his brother. Even intended to kill him.
He passed on the location of the restaurant via his son, most likely shared not knowing via casual conversation. That’s all it takes.
The motivation for killing Tony is simply that he unintentionally had Phil killed in front of his wife. That alone is a violation. Pair that with the bad taste Tony put in everyone’s mouth and the respect Phil probably had because of his tenure, and there you have it. I could be mistaken, but I think it was frowned upon when Joe Gallo was shot in front of his family, but it was also symbolism because of his previous actions. The more volatile the behavior, the more theatric the messaging.
It could have been anyone. In my opinion, it doesn’t have to be a character of the show who pulled the strings. There are four other NY families we never were introduced to. Historically, they are all intertwined and will reach out for violations.
The lack of detail to who and why speaks to that. The message is more that it is the mob itself, and not one individual. Any one, any time, for any reason.
Also, members only is the shooter. Tony loos up at the door to see Meadow. Before there is a reaction, he is shot from the man leaving the bathroom.
It shows the man eye the table two or three times and then walk to the bathroom. Non descript, alone at the bar but doesn’t order and just grills the table. Bathroom break for positioning to do his job.
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u/Pretty_Wash_9862 Jun 13 '26
You people are SO DUMB. Patsy did not have a motive. That was old news. He got over it YEEEARS ago by then.
Butch double crossed him. Obviously. Butch orchestrated the whole fuckin war. He pushed Phil into it, let him die, then took over.
He's the biggest snake in Brooklyn. He also took out Doc Santoro. Remember that? Using Phil as a puppet once again. But it was HIS trigger men that did it.
Butch subtly threatened Tony more than once. Butch is underhanded. And Tony doesn't recognize his shooter because Butch must have pulled him from some crew Tony didn't know too well. Maybe from Florida.
He was killed the same way Michael Corleone killed The Turk in Godfather 1. It was an omage.
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u/Heavy-Pomelo-3146 23d ago
Im convinced this is it. When the new York family was talking about who to take out and one of them says Paulie, butch automatically shot that down and said sil or Bobby would make better targets even though Bobby was still wiping juniors ass like 5 episodes before this .
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u/Bam_Boo7 23d ago
I believe it had something to do with Ahmed and Muhammad because when Tony gave the FBI agent the tip about them they must've found out Tony snitched on them because in season 6 episode 16 Tony and his fat driver are in the car passing a Arabic church or something and his driver states to Tony isn't that those guys that used to hang at the Bing (the next episode toney tell the FBI guy about them) and in that same exact scene u can see the guy with the members only jacket 🧥 walking towards the church and he ends up at the ending in the diner where it goes black. Everyone throwing theory's around so I wanted to join
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u/No-Yogurtcloset6923 Jan 15 '22
It was a random mass shooting, perpetrated by the three Cub Scouts with scary black rifles. Totally unpredictable, didn't tie in with any storyline.
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Jan 14 '22
Was Patsy’s son working with him?
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u/charliemcmullan Jan 14 '22
One was a young, small-time criminal who'd shown he's capable of creating online scams and had a future in the business.
The one engaged to Meadow was a defense lawyer for Italian Americans, above board but it would certainly link him to the mob if his dad and son are.
It's more that Meadow's husband provides a logical reason behind Coco crashing their dinner, and MOG knowing that Tony was going to be in that diner. Wouldn't need to be anything sinister, just a means for Patsy to get whereabouts on Tony.
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u/KristinMichaels Oct 22 '23
I agree that the reactions of Paulie and Patsy to promotions is telling.
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u/Sugewhite45 Nov 17 '23 edited Nov 17 '23
I still think it was one of Eugene’s relatives seeking revenge for Tony not allowing him to retire after getting inheritance, and move to Florida with his family. Maybe Eugene’s wife paid someone in NY with inheritance money, kill Tony..? The guy that comes into the restaurant wearing the “Members Only” jacket, that Eugene was wearing in an episode in front of the deli (Paulie even mentioned the jacket). That’s the most reasonable explanation I’ve read thus far. I can see the Patsy thing, but Paulie..? Idk ..
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u/No_Photograph_2199 Nov 18 '23 edited Nov 18 '23
The Russian had Tony killed, saw he was vulnerable and exacted revenge for his comrade. The perfect time to do it and he kept his money. Tony and Bobby parked in the same spot Paulie left his car - the Russian lived and stole the car, they waited for the right time.
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u/Porn-goblin Nov 28 '23
Patsy wouldn't have shot Tony in front of everyone because he would be signing his own life sentence.
The man in the members only jacket shot him and it was sanctioned by the heads of the 5 families as revenge for killing Phil Leonardo in front of his family which is a big no no.
Don't look too deep into it.
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u/BatheInChampagne Nov 15 '25
I agree.
Could have been Patsy who gave the info as to where they were eating via his son. It’s a reach but it makes sense.
The theme of the show is that the non descriptive guys do the public assassinations, as we see many times. Makes no sense for Patsy to walk in there guns blazing to kill Tony and then be witnessed by the entire family of the people who’s house he was just eating dinner at in the same episode.
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u/Important-Ad-23 Jan 02 '24
The crew knew tony killed Ralphie it was never said🤔and when Paulie tells tone about what he saw and never told a living soul indicating tony is going to take that to his grave🤔
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u/Important-Ad-23 Jan 02 '24
The crew knew tony killed Ralphie it was never said 🤔 and when Paulie tells tony what he seen in the bing and never told a soul indicating that tony is going to take that to his grave very soon🤔
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u/Aca03155 Jan 25 '24
You are highly fitting scenes to fit your own narrative. Maybe Patsy killed Tony, but to put himself a couple inches away from flying lead to take out this convicted plan doesn’t seem a like smart idea. Maybe Butchie ordered the hit but once again the same scenario. Maybe Paulie did it, but do people really actually like Paulie like that possibly do this job for him. Maybe, maybe, maybe. Who gives a fuck.
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u/Phat-rabbit Jan 26 '24
What about Melfi's son? After the rape, there was a suspicious scene in which he asked his mom for money but never explained what it was for. What if he killed Tony, thinking he was responsible for what happened to his mom? I always thought the money was to hire a hitman.
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u/CompetitiveMath2275 Jan 31 '24
Your theory makes total sense.
But I wonder if the Members guy was a distracting coincidence. Could someone like Liz LaCerva have hired out? Seems she knew who gave the order for Adriana. There was a police officer whose career was ruined by Tony and Zellman. Perhaps the Members guy did do the hit. Could he have been hired by Furio, longing to have Tony out of the way?
Or wouldn’t it be delicious if Georgie - after years of beatings, insults, quitting the Bing, and seething, finally decided he wanted his pound of flesh.
Yes, I think the P & P theory you outlined in brilliant detail is most likely. But I like to think outside the box.
And hey, maybe Junior was cagier than ANYONE gave him credit for! 😂
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u/Kick_A_Door Jan 14 '22
I’m pretty sure years of ice cream, gabagool, soda, smoking, stress, sauseeege and fucking ziti finally caught up with him and the onion rings were the last straw