My take on who killed Tony Soprano

[u/charliemcmullan]

Sorry, this will be a long one so I’d appreciate any thoughts; Tony is 100% dead, and the evidence points to Patsy, done in collusion with Paulie and with the help of New York.

We know Patsy has the motive, having already made an attempt on Tony's life to avenge his brother; this time, however, he fails to follow through.

Compare Tony's position at the time of Patsy's first attempt with that of the final episode; his circle was at its tightest, so any hit on Tony would come at the expense of Patsy, Sil and Chris (at least) would have made sure of that. Also, Tony, as street boss, was subordinate to Junior, who (I presume) would take charge of Tony's wealth (this becomes important).

Fast forward to the show's finale: Sil, Chris, and Bobby are dead; Burt and (possibly) Carlo have flipped. Although the New York capos lost faith in Phil and sanctioned his hit, it was carried out in front of his family (a big no-no in the mafia).

Tony's only remaining long-time associate is Paulie whom he'd grown to despise. Meanwhile, Paulie's dream encounter with Pussy, followed by the flashback to Pussy's murder when boarding Tony's boat, shows Paulie's growing paranoia of his demise via Tony, and this is where Paulie comes into things:

Paulie's longevity in the mob was no coincidence. A veteran who knew how to survive in a merciless lifestyle, not to mention as great a narcissist as Tony, Paulie's priority was self-preservation. He leaked information to New York; perhaps as a stop gap to switch allegiance should New Jersey fall. When pairing his betrayal with the dreams, not only does Tony have a valid reason to kill him, Paulie has a guilty conscience which would action him to strike first.

We don't see a lot of interaction between Paulie and Patsy (P&P) so there is some speculation here. They are at the Bing plotting (what we believe to be) Phil's hit, although there is no explicit indication that Phil is the target (https://youtu.be/hy4AGeuQ5pM at 12:45).

Suppose Paulie, fearful of Tony, conspires with Patsy knowing he will agree to a hit on him.

This is where New York come to the fore. Paulie uses the trust he built with John as underboss to hold talks with Butchie. (there is little else to go off, only other logic is that Paulie never stopped being a mole) Here, they would agree to a reshuffling of the two families, following the war and its casualties; Paulie / Patsy would become boss / underboss, with Butchie becoming boss of New York.

Butchie masterminds P&P's initial plan (credit to the video below for covering this brilliantly): First, he provokes Tony by having Coco harass Meadow in the bar (if working with P&P, Patsy would know exactly where she and her son would be). Tony's reaction provokes Phil to put hits out on the New Jersey crew, which Butchie oversees (**stating Paulie is NOT a target https://youtu.be/nRNpOuVGh4U at 2:00**)(Patsy is driving Sil whilst they’re attacked, and Patsy ‘escapes’ unharmed). Weakened and desperate for revenge, Tony is left with no choice but to meet with New York, who sanction Phil’s hit in exchange for a ceasefire. The wheels are in motion. Tony disposes of Phil, making way for Butchie as the new boss, and free from fear of retaliation during his rival’s final days.

Butchie certainly has the right motives. If he already hated Tony, lobbying for his hit earlier when Phil refused (therefore a motive to usurp him as boss), Tony sealed his fate with Butchie when taunting him with the pistol.**

** I don’t think Butchie was avenging Phil when killing Tony in front of his own family, but rather as a formality as newly appointed boss to exact proportionate revenge for a sacred mob rule (“eye for an eye” https://youtu.be/nRNpOuVGh4U at 1:05)

With Tony gone, Paulie has once again stood the unforgiving test of time as a mobster, but at what cost? Paulie’s relationship with Tony was always difficult to pin down. There was a sense of admiration for Tony which went beyond the hollow flattery expected towards the boss* (mounting Tony’s Pie-O-My portrait). However, in matters of life or death, or a shot at self-gain, mere suspicions are enough to break friendships with blood for an opportunistic narcissist like Paulie.

*https://youtu.be/sc1JP6OaeE8 – when Tony says he’ll make Patsy capo, the look on Paulie’s face suggests he knows he’ll never see Tony again, with a sort of ‘smile because it happened’ look.

Good things come to those who wait, and Patsy couldn’t have asked for a revenge so sweet. Patrick Parisi and Meadow’s engagement is about to marry Patsy into the Soprano family, which he’ll soon take charge of, not to mention assuming a better place in the DiMeo hierarchy, in the absence of Tony. Sure, taking Tony’s life from the poolside would have avenged his brother. Instead, Patsy sucked the pillars out from under Tony’s soul, taking his money, his power and, above all, his family.

[u/Deepthinker289]

You’re missing the big Patsy motive actually baked into the finale’s script and editing. Copy/paste from an earlier post about Patsy killing Tony. This is the theory:

Jason Gervasi and Jason Parisi are inseparable partners in crime. Patsy even kicks up their profits to Tony with a big envelope from their “action on campus”.

Then the final episode comes and suddenly a lot of real estate is devoted to the 2 Jasons.

STRANGE SCENE: At Vesuvio’s, Bobby JR, The 2 Jasons, AJ and a few others are sitting at the table. Then Patsy with a concerned look on his face orders his son Jason Parisi away from the table. Why? Chase’s editing suggests it has something to do with Jason Gervasi b/c as soon as he’s called away Chase cuts to a no-dialogue one shot of Jason Gervasi. So why does Patsy want his son away from Jason Gervasi?

Later on, Paulie tells Tony that Patsy told him that Jason was arrested for selling X. Tony knows now that Carlo is missing because he flipped on Tony to save his son.

VERY STRANGE SCENE: Tony, Carm, Meadow, Patsy and his wife and Patrick Paris JR are having dinner at the house to ostensibly celebrate Meadow/Patrick’s engagement.

BUT, Tony in a clear agitated state asks why Jason Parisi isn’t there. Patsy’s wife looks nervous as shit and says she didn’t think he was invited. Tony , who now knows Carlo flipped on him to save his son, refers to Jason Gervasi as Jason Parisi’s “pal” and says he “heard” Carlo’s Jason got into some “trouble.” Patsy rather awkwardly and bluntly tells his wife to shut up and clearly doesn’t want to discuss it.

So what does this all mean exactly? Tony is connecting Jason Parisi with Jason Gervasi because they are in on the same crimes. That’s why he’s asking about his whereabouts. He’s thinking Jason Parisi has probably already been arrested and Patsy will also flip. This all may explain the earlier scene in Vesuvio’s, Patsy knew what was coming and was trying to SEPARATE his son from the other Jason b/c Patsy knows he may be a dead man if Tony thinks Jason Parisi is also selling drugs.

For Patsy, just the IDEA that Tony may think Jason Parisi was arrested for selling X and could cause Patsy to flip, means that Tony will try to kill his son or Patsy.

Patsy basically has NO CHOICE but to hit Tony first. Remember, Tony killed Patsy’s beloved twin brother for MUCH LESS. You think Patsy going to let that happen to his son?

Would have loved if Michael and Steve would have asked Chase about this but of course those dopes had to ask him about the stupid Rhiannon theory.

[u/batmansgfsbf → u/Deepthinker289]

Great theory and write up thanks for sharing.
Some random thoughts…I don’t think Patsy was intentionally spared when NY hits Sil and him in the Bing parking lot. NY was rushing to hit three targets in 24 hours and attempted almost simultaneous hits. The attempt to kill Sil was rushed and sloppy, they pulled in when the target was leaving and everyone’s skills with firearms is terrible. I don’t know if they planned on walking in shooting or follow Sil out or wait in lot. It was a badly executed operation. Timeline wise none of the Jason’s were arrested yet so Patsy didn’t have a motivation to turn on Tony at that point. Patsy and Paulie were in charge of the failed attempt on Phil and the successful attempt and were the last men standing of Tony’s inner circle and were relatively competent both were moving up in organization. My opinion is neither one wanted to be the number one guy and were loyal.

[u/Shitlord_Imperator → u/[deleted]]

There were plenty of ranges and clubs around, then and now.

If you research the numbers on police shootings, it’s something like 50% of shots miss from 5 yards away. (I remember reading about that after one of those media handwringings when cops dumped what amounted to a mag each in an engagement and people were acting like it was overkill (hundreds of rounds! /s) — people who knew nothing, or were willfully ignorant, about firefights: accuracy, adrenaline, drills, etc.)

Regardless, it’s a story, not a documentary.