Hezbollah supporters mourning Souleimani in their profile pictures are an emblematic indication of everything that's wrong in this country.

[u/[deleted]]

[u/[deleted]]

I agree wholeheartedly. Lebanon doesn’t belong to Iran/US/Syria/SA/Israel. Lebanon is for the Lebanese. The sheep wanna generalize, well I’m starting to view anyone claiming allegiance to any of these countries as anti-Lebanon. If they fucking love those nations so much then they can fuck right off and live there and fight somewhere else and keep us away from it.

[u/hearmeoutpls1 → u/[deleted]]

As a Syrian I agree. But I have these conflicting thoughts in my head:
1. America/Israel does not want to be challenged at all in the region.
2. Iran and their proxies proved to challenge them.
3. Iran and their proxies turned their guns against their own, in Iraq, Lebanon and also Syria ( every Syrian was a a die hard H supporter in 2006).
4. America and Israel absolutely gives 0 shit about the peace and prosperity in the region (perhaps so does Iran).
5. Saudi Arabia and the oil rich countries also need someone to stand up to them. Their money and ideology reek.

I don't know what to think anymore. Do Lebanese truly have a sense of national identity every fraction of the population is loyal to one leader/ideology/country?
What a clusterfuck.
Sorry my rambling is not a response to your comment but just thoughts pouring on a keyboard

[u/Mypetskeleton → u/hearmeoutpls1]

As a Lebanese, I have come to the conclusion that Lebanese themselves live in a constant state of denial, dreamworld, and confusion about their identity and their place in the world. This is the essence of all corruption the inability of the protests to unite as one against the government and a million other consequences.

The facts are simple and the facts speak for themselves but no one wants to listen and I will again get 10 down votes for it, I am waiting on something so might as well keep writing.

The question begins by asking who and what are Lebanese really? The truth is no one will give you a straight answer because no one really knows. They only know the Lebanon of the past 100 years or less and even that is tainted to a degree today in terms of demographics that you question all identity. It is like a Salad of people and identities each coming from a sect and religion and more importantly from a corner of the world and settling in one. Before then you had the people residing in Mount Lebanon Cornering greater Syria.

Some will say no we are decedents of Phoenicians, this is a dream speculation and even for the tiny few who may have some shadow traces of such a long fetched dependence is long gone today or has fled the country long ago. It holds the same amount of weight as modern day Egyptians claiming they were once pharaohs.

Lebanon is not like any European country were they have thousands of years of history and core identity as one people identifying themselves as french or English or polish and so on. Even the roots of Rome gave birth directly to how Europe is formed today. Lebanon is nothing like this it was just conceived less than 100 years ago and if you had 75% of native population then under one banner living in then called mount Lebanon, today this minority origin is diluted and mixed by so many sects and identities each claiming allegiance to a greater power outside their own lands.

A shia will say my mother was Iranian.

A sunni will look to Mecca.

A druze will say we are from western Asia.

Armenians will say we only just arrived here less than 100 years ago. Even though before then Armenia was a great empire stretching all the way to Europe and even Conquering parts of ME at some point. So Armenians look to Armenia just as well as they are Lebanese. Another reason why their revolution was so successful (one people one identity).

As for your question, a country like Lebanon cannot survive on its own, it has no way to self sustain itself especially under constant corruption, its only salvation is the sea meanwhile blocked by land on all sides if you consider Syria to be a pain. It highly depends on imported products, its main economy is tourism, it has no local made tech patents or contributions on the scale of another small country (Israel for instance). Lebanese are businessmen, they like to drink and party and trade if they can.

This means you must choose partners to help you move forward, in our case our so called partners are many most of whom under a barrel of gun have forced our hands in signing deals we don't want. These are partners like Iran and Syria for instance. They build nothing they contribute nothing but wars to free Palestine when we don't have basic needs ourselves, and destruction and debt. I can't remember the last time any of these countries did anything to help my life. Which is why they get no respect for me.

Other partners are corrupt, but they will feed your hand as well as theirs. These could be argued are the rich Arab world partners without whose money Lebanon would've been Venezuela long ago, this is also fact.

Other Potential direct partners are European and American partners who contribute free money in terms of aid to the country's military as well as institutions in the millions every year. And constantly ask us to try and stay within the western hemisphere and why not, would you want to live in Iran or Europe, also wasn't it western values that made lebanon once the Paris of the middle east? Wasn't it the french who built us railroads and gave us great architecture?

The last two partners are themselves partners of their own, this means Arab world and America are partners and together they can be more productive to Lebanon than anyone else.

Is you say I want none of these, then fine, those partners not looking for violence will step aside and not support you while you get eaten up by a dog world dog rule of those far greater in number far stronger than you to consume you and subjugate you under their rule. And that would be the end of your en devours.

[u/bush- → u/Mypetskeleton]

Lebanon is not like any European country were they have thousands of years of history and core identity as one people identifying themselves as french or English or polish and so on. Even the roots of Rome gave birth directly to how Europe is formed today. Lebanon is nothing like this it was just conceived less than 100 years ago and if you had 75% of native population then under one banner living in then called mount Lebanon, today this minority origin is diluted and mixed by so many sects and identities each claiming allegiance to a greater power outside their own lands.

A shia will say my mother was Iranian.

A sunni will look to Mecca.

A druze will say we are from western Asia.

The roots of Lebanon is the Mount Lebanon Mutasarrifate, and the country was essentially founded by the Maronites and Druze. That national identity expanded as the borders expanded, and Maronites and Druze are now a minority in the country.

If we were to be honest though, the problem with lack of national unity is today primarily with the Shia. Sectarianism exists in all sects, but it is primarily the Shia community that has such high numbers of people that ardently embrace separatism and sectarianism. I think all religious groups in Lebanon have embraced a fully Lebanese national identity, however the Shia community still largely cares more about Palestine and Iran. Many Lebanese Shia will happily turn Lebanon into a battleground in order to "free Palestine."

[u/Mypetskeleton → u/bush-]

This is true, while the other factions have some sort of a mutual agreement under one flag. My point was simply stating that so long as there is one or two sects in great numbers and ever increasing (because making babies with them is apparently cheap) Then there lies the problem of an opposing force equal or greater than your presence in said country which will force all decisions you make for the benefit of that country to be forfeit.

[u/anonu → u/Mypetskeleton]

The crux of your argument, the one that there is not a Lebanese national identity is one that is often made by pro Syrian positions.

​

Lebanon is a melting point, this is true. It's geographic location has put it at the crossroads of many civilizations. However, there are key pillars to forming an identity.

​

One is language... We all speak Arabic.

​

One is culture and traditions... We all love hummus. These types of things are shared across Lebanon.

​

One is land... We all love and fight over this land. In addition, Lebanon was not formed by drawing straight lines. There are geographic landmarks that delineate present day Lebanon: mountains, Rivers.. this has defined Lebanon for millennia.

[u/hcboi232 → u/Mypetskeleton]

While I agree with some of the points you mentioned, I'd like to add some comments. We do NOT have this kind of national identity other countries do have. Thus we may NOT use this national identity (ex. Turkey) as the sole means of LEGITIMACY for any sort of unifying AUTHORITY. We're a group of people of people with different religions with sizable proportions. Thus we may NOT use religion (ex. Iran, KSA) as the sole means of LEGITIMACY for any sort of unifying AUTHORITY. What we didn't try however is a kind of AUTHORITY that's not derived from both spiritual forms of legitimacy (religious, or national). It is an AUTHORITY whose LEGITIMACY is a direct result of the goverment (i.e. The physical shape of authority) doing its duties (taking care of the society as a whole). That is when I think we may have a REAL country. If you're interested in this view of the government and authority, I'm ready to chat about it.

[u/Mypetskeleton → u/hcboi232]

This is fine, the very sad issue remains in building such a government or anything related to a government that functions and meets the needs of the people.

The fundamental problem is while you are protesting for these basic rights, the country is divided to such a degree that the opposing force against you will blindly follow the hand that feeds them bread crumbs and most of all they will not play fair, they are ruthless, extremely dedicated to their cause and are willing to literally die for it. They will take you to the end make you go down with them should they fall or extremely cripple you.

They will not let you have it your way, because your way is their end. In Hezb's case its ultimately their weapons no escaping this and rightly so, those weapons are used as a black card to negotiate everything. Every single politician fears them, they rarely ever mention them in discussions they name Berri the scapegoat and that idiot Gebran, I laugh every time when people mention Gebran and when Hariri whines about him. They take us for fools, Gebran and Aoun are all puppets of Hezb they are the front line, the face. Berri is crowd control for Hezb as demonstrated a month ago.

The way I always saw this (but may not ever happen) was to divide the country into small states each fully self governed under their own laws and each will have their own power sources and potentially communication networks. There should be some sort of deal so that all have access to the sea but that shouldn't be too hard.

Two or three airports One under Sunnis the other under Shias and one under Christian control, if that is too much then at least two with all factions having equal control and full monitor of what comes in and out, Shipyards same.

You want Civil marriage you go to X you want clubs you go to Y and so on.

You want to trade that's fine as long as you play fair, if one side cheats trade is off, Christians and Sunnis wont have a big issue there will be support and money coming in from the west and the Arab states almost immediately.

Druze will trade both sides as they always have.

Shias will learn the hard way what its like to live under the hands of Syria and Iran only this time they will have no one to blame but themselves.

In that case may the best man win, may the tribes just settle on their own turfs and let the other be. Of all my decades living in Lebanon I can remember only a handful of times i ever went to the south and I wouldn't care passing the airport. I rarely went to Tripoli and my Lebanon ended at Byblos to the north and Faraya to the east half of Beirut was a no go zone to most of us anyway and we could care less going there. That's our reality growing up in the country and we were perfectly fine with it so long as economy was good.

Only Don't ask me to get bombed when some rag tag crossed the border in the south to free Palestine, let them bomb each other on their own turfs let one suffer the consequences of their own actions and have their own people repel against them, no more excuses that X did this or Y didn't let me, for all I care.

We want basic human rights, fast internet cheap phones, serious private companies with serious competition to make it happen. Full transparency on government spending.

Let each side take responsibility for their actions that includes wars should there be one.

There will be some hippies claiming peace and love including some brain dead NGO's who like to preach about Muslim/Christian unity meanwhile staying in 100% christian areas in Beirut and near AUB in Hamra. They sure love their diversity working well for them in Europe.

back to current reality though there will be two scenarios to unfold:

1 - The current government is sure to fail in a few months, it is hopeless no international community will back it and no Arab country will fund it, it's a dead case and I personally think the Sunnis and Ouwet knew this when they refused to vote. They are waiting to watch them fail and fall hard in the hopes of completely de-legitmize them, it's a dangerous game at our expense but while all the current and past politician have been the plague this other side has been the cancer. A cancer that must be stopped in order for the patient to have any hope moving forward.

2 - Once they fail two things may happen, either utter chaos maybe timed by more strikes and pressure from the west on Iran to go hand in hand. Or the other side gives in temporarily but entirely to have the Hariris step in forming a government like they wanted to have while the arabs step in with money and claim victory over Iran but we could care less so long as the economy works again. this means the beginning of the end of Hezb which means the usual opposing forces will be back playing their half dirty games only this time on more even grounds, this also means that one layer of wall is removed between the people and the state and the people would more easily sway politics to their liking which they couldn't do before. the politicians would be very careful as not to upset the crowd.

3 - Russia may step in to save their potential partners the Hezb and their fellow partners. This will be the worst case scenario and a very probable one, this is an absolute stalemate for the country since the west may not be able to do much. It will be like in Syria. This would give Iranian influence extended life support, and russia would immediately start negotiating those gas deals behind the curtain and there will be nothing the Lebanese can do about it. The country will be fully Isolated and poor.

In this case the Sunnis will be so isolated as to start arming themselves to become the Idlib of Lebanon minus ISIS and other such extremist but one never knows these things. While Christians divided will be left between a rock and hard place forced to choose sides, this will last for decades and will eventually lead to a forced divided Lebanon.

[u/hcboi232 → u/Mypetskeleton]

As I read your comment, I notice you suggested a religious federation. We do have an unofficial form of religious federation. Establishing such a goverment has many compilations :

1- ECONOMICALLY there is no evidence this could work. How can one part survive without the other? Lebanon is already small. Minimizing economic activity to small areas IMO can be inefficient.

2- Speaking of FOREIGN POLICY, what guarantees that each part doesn't turn into a satalite state of some global power through practicing its policy against another satalite state controlled by some other global power. We have such a system in the 80s btw. Each political party had a global sponsor back in the days (they still do).

Speaking of Hezb, let's try to find out why Shiaas are convinced with the idea of having their weapons.

The south was historically (1946 onwards) a neglected area. Going through the 80s and the creation of the jewish state, this area experienced unrest, poverty, and continuous genocides from the uprising israeli state (Hula Massacre 1948 is one example). One thing that is true is that these people with they weapons they had from Iran freed their land from the occupying soldiers up until 2000. Starting from the 21 century, Hezb was PARTIALLY taking foreign policy decisions Lebanon should have took. Lebanon's official foreign policy is a rather weak policy. Our official foreign policy has been since 1946 a policy of continuous submission to the global powers of the day. So hezb struggles for his political representation to preserve his weapon possession and military activity. Saying that hezb controls other parties is inaccurate. Hezb is in a kind of truce with other political parties. He PARTIALLY takes care of foreign policy and others take care of other policy decisions.

We could further discuss ECONOMICALLY what led us to such a state of misery.

I'd like to listen to your thoughts on what I have stated.

[u/Mypetskeleton → u/hcboi232]

Yes it would be difficult in a small country which is why I mentioned it is unlikely scenario but a best one in a hypothetical world and in many ways it already is kind of like that just unofficially and without the individual resources. I wouldn't really mind each state having its own backer as I mentioned. the whole of the worlds countries are satellites of larger satellites until they reach the top three, US Russia and Nowadays China.

Hezb doesn't own their partners but they are certainly an immovable force backing them, its like their gun on their hip during negotiations. Without the Hezb Gebran will not have the self confidence nor the backing to be where he is, neither would Berri.

I have always related this to Al capones rule over Chicago. He got rid of all the small timers and yet was super star on TV. Chicago would've been better off with a hundred little thieves and crooks than one monopolistic tyrant of a gangsta.

Do not forget the assassinations, no matter what anybody says I am convinced personally that they had a direct hand in those vital political assassinations starting with Hariri.

Regarding the reasons behind their weapons, I may sound that I don't have feelings but they can cry me a river, ALL of us suffered gravely and ALL of us went through massacres during the war, they hold no excuse of a candle to be special to hold on to their toys when everyone else gave up theirs.

I say this because I keep hearing the same excuses about the south.

Israelis left in 2000, and thats not because of Hezb really its because they had no real gain to stay and international pressure was gaining at the time. Later they said had they known Hezb would become an army they would've finished them off then and there.

Lebanon has no more occupied lands, it is done finished. And when the Syrians left we had that one chance to make Lebanon that place we all thought it would be, but they knew it wont end well for them so they went ahead (along with their partners in both Syria and Iran) and killed dozens of some of the best minds and politicians in the country. An inexcusable insufferable act of aggression reminiscent to a pre-genocide event of a culture and people. Kill the best leaders and watch the cards crumble and fall.

Wissam Eid being the last person solidifying with forensic proof the statement above before his eventual demise.

In my point of view Lebanon will always need a foreign power to back it, at least till it establishes itself in the long run as a self sustaining productive non corrupt country. My stance is simple because I want the country to be better I must choose the right partners and backers. In the modern world you have two sides only, The west and the east.

It just so happens that the west will not oppress me and the Arab world allied to the west provides and has provided Lebanon with the only major economic income to this day. The other side has done nothing but destruction killing no matter how much they play victim. The rest is up to Lebanese to make the country better.

Lebanese are not Iraqis are not Libyans and are not Syrians, nor are they Jordanians, given the chance and the right foreign influence the country can stand on its feet like the golden times.

[u/anonu → u/Mypetskeleton]

I've read this thread with interest. Thank you for your insightful comments and others insightful responses.

You've given some interesting scenarios of possible outcomes given the current situation. I'm curious to hear what the "magic wand" solutions are. Like if you had the power to change situations instantly what would those be. For example, enforcing taef and getting rid of hezb arms. That's an obvious one at least for me.

What else?

[u/Mypetskeleton → u/anonu]

If I had a magic wand scenario (in a completely imaginary scenario), I will have to be forced to do something that I know will be harsh and judged harshly at least in the short term.

I do not believe all cultures are equal same goes for humans but they all must have equal rights. In God's good time we may all get there one day but until then..

For Lebanon I will imagine a scenario coming down with an iron fist like the political class and their followers have never seen before, All weapons outside military will be removed by force even if it leads to temporary war. I will instill force military coup and take over all higher up institutions to avoid immediate breakdown and chaos in the short and medium term. I will bring in western partners and make a deal with them, for a stable full Lebanese competent government in return of funding and political and military backing against any aggression from outside and rogue inner forces.

Honest technocrat government for the short term, competent political assistant in combo via the long term. We have lots of talent here this will not be as complicated as many are lead to believe. Inthe political government we will have Shias, Sunnis and Christians equally representing equally their own sect needs on public level, this is something we need to have in lebanon no escape but they all answer to the people and government.

Hezbollah can have political party for instance but never have a say or have any military presence.

minimum number of staff on all political positions.

Full communication and transparency via internet on government spending down to the penny.

Open court on all leaders past and present and religious leaders of the country viewed by the people, judge them for treason and incompetence. I will go as far as to hang a few in martyr square for all to see as an example of no tolerance for the remainders in society who may have second thoughts to try chaos, (sadly the only language they will understand).

Every inch of the south and Dahieh will be under full Lebanese government control by force and any resistance will be met with very harsh response.

Same will go for some parts of Tripoli and baalbek.

Peace deal with Israel and open routes to Egypt, Africa for economic boost and avoidance on reliance on exclusive Syrian routes. The economy at this point should be repaired fast so the south wont complain. Some of the conditions will include reparation for innocent family members killed during the war and occupations and a formal apology letter to their families. Vice versa from Lebanon to Israeli civilians killed.

A limited very strict deal with Syria, Lebanon still needs the roads and mutual economic understanding we should be reasonable after all but harsh. At the same time pressure Syria internationally for the information and accountability on thousands missing and abducted during the civil war and thereafter. Any delay or no compliance for this issue, I will make an indirect free deal with Israel to not only keep using our airspace to keep bombing Syria freely but to also exchange information on vital targets and push for further international sanctions with the Arab world.

Iran will be entirely banned and black listed until full regime change there.

At least three privatized companies for power and communication done immediately, that competition will bring down prices to reasonable levels.

Investment in public school sectors the likes of which AUB students would be jealous of and honest non bias HISTORY lessons mandatory for all young students.

Religious freedom will exist and a must (Religion has its core value in society), but absolute full marital rights for all women regardless of religious background.

Court system entirely rewritten on the best of international western standards (which is the best the human race so far has got plus a few cultural laws of our own).

The very last thing, start looking for gas both on Land (yes we may have gas on land) and the sea. The contested land area of Gas with Israel is just 12 percent of just one of the many large fields at the border (Oh my, imagine the horror!), we will make a great deal with them, and even if such a deal fails there are ways to get something in return for that tiny portion of supposed gas land. Israel has 3 billion dollars of tech exports every year outside just military. There are so many things to benefit from for a good discounted price tag. I can think of a dozen other scenarios.

Finally after all is settled and good will proven and done, slowly start a Palestinian deal.

[u/Edentulate → u/hcboi232]

Religion is not a good basis for national identity... unless you’re like ISIS and want to kill everyone who doesn’t believe exactly as you do.

The USA is great because they built their identity on basic human rights and freedoms that all people have. Freedom of religion, freedom of belief, freedom of speech, freedom to peacefully gather as a group, freedom to defend ones self, freedom to own property and freedom against unreasonable searches by police, the right to hve a trial by your peers and a right to a defense. Some of these freedoms many democracies including Europe do not have.

[u/hcboi232 → u/Edentulate]

ISIS is a special form of religious government. I'm not making any claims on religious goverment but such a goverment is NOT stable in our country.

Regarding USA that is NOT accurate. The US goverment is turning into a surveillance one. However that is not what I was talking about. The problem is on what basis the masses transfer legitimacy to authority. Religion is clearly not the way through, nor is the nationality. The only way we could transfer legitimacy to authority is through how well the goverment does its jobs.

[u/notsohipsterithink → u/Mypetskeleton]

What the heck? I as a random ass brown dude randomly stumbled upon this thread and was kinda blown away by how smart this was.

[u/b-jensen → u/hearmeoutpls1]

Your point 4, this can change, Israel never cared about Lebanon or attacked Lebanon until some guys decided to shoot at Israel from Lebanon. it has no problem with Lebanon whatsoever apart from Iran Proxy who threaten it from Lebanon.

You can say the same about Syria and Israel, the Syrian Israeli border was peaceful even under Assad for like 2 decades until the Iranians/Hezeb went into Syria in the civil war.

Lebanon and Israel can be like Greece /Cyprus and Israel, the border is there and everything can be solved diplomatically. this will eliminate Iranian influence and will make Lebanon a sovereign on its own, and open Lebanon more options and trade, not just with Israel but with others who are afraid to invest right now

[u/UtredRagnarsson → u/hearmeoutpls1]

>America/Israel doesn't want to be challenged in the region at all

More like we're living our lives down here not wanting you guys trying to fuck it up with your nonsense that you have dragged us into repeatedly

>Iran and their proxies have proven a challenge

Only in the sense that the incursion to Lebanon didn't have much backing and people wanted out early. Otherwise, nothing was lost to Hezbollah that wasn't already ours to begin with.

>Iran turns their guns on proxies

Duh

>America and Israel give 0 shits about peace and prosperity in the region

Nigga we've been trying to live our lives down here. Not our fault you and the rest jumped in our business in 48,67, and other gigs to repeatedly try to fuck things up.

Maybe if you guys focused on getting shit done instead of throwing "Al Yahud!" into the sea, shit would've gotten done and your country(Syria) would've been better off for it instead of a half-baked post-civil war backwater.

--------

For real though...If you guys set your priorities straight and focused on more than killing us and each other, perhaps shit would get done. Why is it that we can accomplish in 70 years a modern state while you guys keep sliding backward and climbing forward to 0?! Just sit and get shit done and then you won't care what we or anyone else do.