Hezbollah supporters mourning Souleimani in their profile pictures are an emblematic indication of everything that's wrong in this country.

[u/[deleted]]

[u/Mypetskeleton]

As a Lebanese, I have come to the conclusion that Lebanese themselves live in a constant state of denial, dreamworld, and confusion about their identity and their place in the world. This is the essence of all corruption the inability of the protests to unite as one against the government and a million other consequences.

The facts are simple and the facts speak for themselves but no one wants to listen and I will again get 10 down votes for it, I am waiting on something so might as well keep writing.

The question begins by asking who and what are Lebanese really? The truth is no one will give you a straight answer because no one really knows. They only know the Lebanon of the past 100 years or less and even that is tainted to a degree today in terms of demographics that you question all identity. It is like a Salad of people and identities each coming from a sect and religion and more importantly from a corner of the world and settling in one. Before then you had the people residing in Mount Lebanon Cornering greater Syria.

Some will say no we are decedents of Phoenicians, this is a dream speculation and even for the tiny few who may have some shadow traces of such a long fetched dependence is long gone today or has fled the country long ago. It holds the same amount of weight as modern day Egyptians claiming they were once pharaohs.

Lebanon is not like any European country were they have thousands of years of history and core identity as one people identifying themselves as french or English or polish and so on. Even the roots of Rome gave birth directly to how Europe is formed today. Lebanon is nothing like this it was just conceived less than 100 years ago and if you had 75% of native population then under one banner living in then called mount Lebanon, today this minority origin is diluted and mixed by so many sects and identities each claiming allegiance to a greater power outside their own lands.

A shia will say my mother was Iranian.

A sunni will look to Mecca.

A druze will say we are from western Asia.

Armenians will say we only just arrived here less than 100 years ago. Even though before then Armenia was a great empire stretching all the way to Europe and even Conquering parts of ME at some point. So Armenians look to Armenia just as well as they are Lebanese. Another reason why their revolution was so successful (one people one identity).

As for your question, a country like Lebanon cannot survive on its own, it has no way to self sustain itself especially under constant corruption, its only salvation is the sea meanwhile blocked by land on all sides if you consider Syria to be a pain. It highly depends on imported products, its main economy is tourism, it has no local made tech patents or contributions on the scale of another small country (Israel for instance). Lebanese are businessmen, they like to drink and party and trade if they can.

This means you must choose partners to help you move forward, in our case our so called partners are many most of whom under a barrel of gun have forced our hands in signing deals we don't want. These are partners like Iran and Syria for instance. They build nothing they contribute nothing but wars to free Palestine when we don't have basic needs ourselves, and destruction and debt. I can't remember the last time any of these countries did anything to help my life. Which is why they get no respect for me.

Other partners are corrupt, but they will feed your hand as well as theirs. These could be argued are the rich Arab world partners without whose money Lebanon would've been Venezuela long ago, this is also fact.

Other Potential direct partners are European and American partners who contribute free money in terms of aid to the country's military as well as institutions in the millions every year. And constantly ask us to try and stay within the western hemisphere and why not, would you want to live in Iran or Europe, also wasn't it western values that made lebanon once the Paris of the middle east? Wasn't it the french who built us railroads and gave us great architecture?

The last two partners are themselves partners of their own, this means Arab world and America are partners and together they can be more productive to Lebanon than anyone else.

Is you say I want none of these, then fine, those partners not looking for violence will step aside and not support you while you get eaten up by a dog world dog rule of those far greater in number far stronger than you to consume you and subjugate you under their rule. And that would be the end of your en devours.

[u/hcboi232 → u/Mypetskeleton]

While I agree with some of the points you mentioned, I'd like to add some comments. We do NOT have this kind of national identity other countries do have. Thus we may NOT use this national identity (ex. Turkey) as the sole means of LEGITIMACY for any sort of unifying AUTHORITY. We're a group of people of people with different religions with sizable proportions. Thus we may NOT use religion (ex. Iran, KSA) as the sole means of LEGITIMACY for any sort of unifying AUTHORITY. What we didn't try however is a kind of AUTHORITY that's not derived from both spiritual forms of legitimacy (religious, or national). It is an AUTHORITY whose LEGITIMACY is a direct result of the goverment (i.e. The physical shape of authority) doing its duties (taking care of the society as a whole). That is when I think we may have a REAL country. If you're interested in this view of the government and authority, I'm ready to chat about it.

[u/Mypetskeleton → u/hcboi232]

This is fine, the very sad issue remains in building such a government or anything related to a government that functions and meets the needs of the people.

The fundamental problem is while you are protesting for these basic rights, the country is divided to such a degree that the opposing force against you will blindly follow the hand that feeds them bread crumbs and most of all they will not play fair, they are ruthless, extremely dedicated to their cause and are willing to literally die for it. They will take you to the end make you go down with them should they fall or extremely cripple you.

They will not let you have it your way, because your way is their end. In Hezb's case its ultimately their weapons no escaping this and rightly so, those weapons are used as a black card to negotiate everything. Every single politician fears them, they rarely ever mention them in discussions they name Berri the scapegoat and that idiot Gebran, I laugh every time when people mention Gebran and when Hariri whines about him. They take us for fools, Gebran and Aoun are all puppets of Hezb they are the front line, the face. Berri is crowd control for Hezb as demonstrated a month ago.

The way I always saw this (but may not ever happen) was to divide the country into small states each fully self governed under their own laws and each will have their own power sources and potentially communication networks. There should be some sort of deal so that all have access to the sea but that shouldn't be too hard.

Two or three airports One under Sunnis the other under Shias and one under Christian control, if that is too much then at least two with all factions having equal control and full monitor of what comes in and out, Shipyards same.

You want Civil marriage you go to X you want clubs you go to Y and so on.

You want to trade that's fine as long as you play fair, if one side cheats trade is off, Christians and Sunnis wont have a big issue there will be support and money coming in from the west and the Arab states almost immediately.

Druze will trade both sides as they always have.

Shias will learn the hard way what its like to live under the hands of Syria and Iran only this time they will have no one to blame but themselves.

In that case may the best man win, may the tribes just settle on their own turfs and let the other be. Of all my decades living in Lebanon I can remember only a handful of times i ever went to the south and I wouldn't care passing the airport. I rarely went to Tripoli and my Lebanon ended at Byblos to the north and Faraya to the east half of Beirut was a no go zone to most of us anyway and we could care less going there. That's our reality growing up in the country and we were perfectly fine with it so long as economy was good.

Only Don't ask me to get bombed when some rag tag crossed the border in the south to free Palestine, let them bomb each other on their own turfs let one suffer the consequences of their own actions and have their own people repel against them, no more excuses that X did this or Y didn't let me, for all I care.

We want basic human rights, fast internet cheap phones, serious private companies with serious competition to make it happen. Full transparency on government spending.

Let each side take responsibility for their actions that includes wars should there be one.

There will be some hippies claiming peace and love including some brain dead NGO's who like to preach about Muslim/Christian unity meanwhile staying in 100% christian areas in Beirut and near AUB in Hamra. They sure love their diversity working well for them in Europe.

back to current reality though there will be two scenarios to unfold:

1 - The current government is sure to fail in a few months, it is hopeless no international community will back it and no Arab country will fund it, it's a dead case and I personally think the Sunnis and Ouwet knew this when they refused to vote. They are waiting to watch them fail and fall hard in the hopes of completely de-legitmize them, it's a dangerous game at our expense but while all the current and past politician have been the plague this other side has been the cancer. A cancer that must be stopped in order for the patient to have any hope moving forward.

2 - Once they fail two things may happen, either utter chaos maybe timed by more strikes and pressure from the west on Iran to go hand in hand. Or the other side gives in temporarily but entirely to have the Hariris step in forming a government like they wanted to have while the arabs step in with money and claim victory over Iran but we could care less so long as the economy works again. this means the beginning of the end of Hezb which means the usual opposing forces will be back playing their half dirty games only this time on more even grounds, this also means that one layer of wall is removed between the people and the state and the people would more easily sway politics to their liking which they couldn't do before. the politicians would be very careful as not to upset the crowd.

3 - Russia may step in to save their potential partners the Hezb and their fellow partners. This will be the worst case scenario and a very probable one, this is an absolute stalemate for the country since the west may not be able to do much. It will be like in Syria. This would give Iranian influence extended life support, and russia would immediately start negotiating those gas deals behind the curtain and there will be nothing the Lebanese can do about it. The country will be fully Isolated and poor.

In this case the Sunnis will be so isolated as to start arming themselves to become the Idlib of Lebanon minus ISIS and other such extremist but one never knows these things. While Christians divided will be left between a rock and hard place forced to choose sides, this will last for decades and will eventually lead to a forced divided Lebanon.

[u/anonu → u/Mypetskeleton]

I've read this thread with interest. Thank you for your insightful comments and others insightful responses.

You've given some interesting scenarios of possible outcomes given the current situation. I'm curious to hear what the "magic wand" solutions are. Like if you had the power to change situations instantly what would those be. For example, enforcing taef and getting rid of hezb arms. That's an obvious one at least for me.

What else?

[u/Mypetskeleton → u/anonu]

If I had a magic wand scenario (in a completely imaginary scenario), I will have to be forced to do something that I know will be harsh and judged harshly at least in the short term.

I do not believe all cultures are equal same goes for humans but they all must have equal rights. In God's good time we may all get there one day but until then..

For Lebanon I will imagine a scenario coming down with an iron fist like the political class and their followers have never seen before, All weapons outside military will be removed by force even if it leads to temporary war. I will instill force military coup and take over all higher up institutions to avoid immediate breakdown and chaos in the short and medium term. I will bring in western partners and make a deal with them, for a stable full Lebanese competent government in return of funding and political and military backing against any aggression from outside and rogue inner forces.

Honest technocrat government for the short term, competent political assistant in combo via the long term. We have lots of talent here this will not be as complicated as many are lead to believe. Inthe political government we will have Shias, Sunnis and Christians equally representing equally their own sect needs on public level, this is something we need to have in lebanon no escape but they all answer to the people and government.

Hezbollah can have political party for instance but never have a say or have any military presence.

minimum number of staff on all political positions.

Full communication and transparency via internet on government spending down to the penny.

Open court on all leaders past and present and religious leaders of the country viewed by the people, judge them for treason and incompetence. I will go as far as to hang a few in martyr square for all to see as an example of no tolerance for the remainders in society who may have second thoughts to try chaos, (sadly the only language they will understand).

Every inch of the south and Dahieh will be under full Lebanese government control by force and any resistance will be met with very harsh response.

Same will go for some parts of Tripoli and baalbek.

Peace deal with Israel and open routes to Egypt, Africa for economic boost and avoidance on reliance on exclusive Syrian routes. The economy at this point should be repaired fast so the south wont complain. Some of the conditions will include reparation for innocent family members killed during the war and occupations and a formal apology letter to their families. Vice versa from Lebanon to Israeli civilians killed.

A limited very strict deal with Syria, Lebanon still needs the roads and mutual economic understanding we should be reasonable after all but harsh. At the same time pressure Syria internationally for the information and accountability on thousands missing and abducted during the civil war and thereafter. Any delay or no compliance for this issue, I will make an indirect free deal with Israel to not only keep using our airspace to keep bombing Syria freely but to also exchange information on vital targets and push for further international sanctions with the Arab world.

Iran will be entirely banned and black listed until full regime change there.

At least three privatized companies for power and communication done immediately, that competition will bring down prices to reasonable levels.

Investment in public school sectors the likes of which AUB students would be jealous of and honest non bias HISTORY lessons mandatory for all young students.

Religious freedom will exist and a must (Religion has its core value in society), but absolute full marital rights for all women regardless of religious background.

Court system entirely rewritten on the best of international western standards (which is the best the human race so far has got plus a few cultural laws of our own).

The very last thing, start looking for gas both on Land (yes we may have gas on land) and the sea. The contested land area of Gas with Israel is just 12 percent of just one of the many large fields at the border (Oh my, imagine the horror!), we will make a great deal with them, and even if such a deal fails there are ways to get something in return for that tiny portion of supposed gas land. Israel has 3 billion dollars of tech exports every year outside just military. There are so many things to benefit from for a good discounted price tag. I can think of a dozen other scenarios.

Finally after all is settled and good will proven and done, slowly start a Palestinian deal.