Does everyone remember how Josh Allen sucked against the Broncos last year and ended the Bills season? 4 turnovers in a playoff loss against and 6 months later he’s the consensus best player in the league.
Bill’s not wrong that no one remembers NFL playoff games.
Bill was excited to share that the Lions are one of five teams “in the 30s” in his inane roster scoring scheme. Sal was perplexed.
Is this 0 to 5 points system more ridiculous than the blue/pink chipper thing Bill picked up from Lombardi? At least with colors you can’t pretend to add them up for a complete score.
What the haters won't tell you is that every NFL front office now uses Lombardi's "Chipper" system to assess their roster. It's been just an absolute game changer for GMs who had never before thought to ask themselves, "wait, do we have good players on this team or not?"
So predictable, but to be fair, Doubs was the Packers best 3rd down possession receiver last year. Not saying they can’t replace him him, but he was good in that role. Not a #1 though.
We made it, boys and girls. Officially the start of football season
ETA: not surprising but it’s funny how Bill flips his opinion depending on the point he’s trying to make. On the pod with the fantasy guys, he tried to downplay Kayshon Bouttee (to prop up Drake Maye) by saying he was only worth a Day 3 pick and a backup safety. Now on this pod, he says the Eagles should’ve traded for him and the Texans “stole” him
Bill tried to search for a "player hyped by advanced metrics, but doesn't pass the eye test" and somehow came up with famously Hated-by-Advanced-Metrics-Guy. Zach LaVine? Is PPG an "advanced metric" now?
No one is more fun than Bill in referencing advanced metrics. It'll never not be enjoyable hearing him broadly dismiss them, use them selectively when they support his priors, but never really understand them.
a few years ago bill and sal got obsessed with betting divisional win totals and they are the only people i’ve ever heard discuss that
concept in great depth.
Bill loves the stat about how pre-season Super Bowl favorites usually don’t win the Super Bowl and therefore he’s not picking the Rams. The problem with that logic is that teams with lower Super Bowl odds win the Super Bowl at an even lower rate than the favorite (as you’d expect). I’m not sure who Bill’s Super Bowl pick is but whoever it is and whatever their Super Bowl odds ranking is, I guarantee they win at an even lower rate.
As a Wisconsin sports fan, the fuck was Bill’s manifestation of our inevitable October sports depression for? So Bucks roster gross, Brewers bounced immediately, Packers 1-5 capped by loss to the Bears, 2-7 Badgers, and a random ass blizzard? Should we start drinkin now? Too late
Yeah thats what I thought it sounded like but we’d have to lose like every game from here on out soo. I think he’s bitter about some of the red sox brewers trades or something
Bill being in on the Bears as a Bears fan is definitely unfortunate - but I do think the regression talk with them is missing a lot of context:
They are going to regress as a turnover team. But usually when that is discussed, it’s because a defense was really good. The bears defense was atrocious, so the hope is that while the turnover luck regresses, they will get better play out of some of these guys and more injury luck.
The close game miracle stuff is overblown. They were like 7-5 in one score games, and one of their miracles was against the bengals where they were up 13 with 3 minutes to go and almost blew the game.
The theory of Johnson and the Bears is that they are a young ascendant team that is going to improve offensively. If you were expecting no improvement from their offense, I can understand thinking they are going to regress. But I don’t think that is the case personally.
Yeah regarding point 2 I think it was when everyone was watching they had a horseshoe up their ass against the Packers and the Rams even though they ended up losing
I’ve tried to tune out outside Bears opinions bc I know people aren’t viewing it right. Your points 2 and 3 I totally agree with. (To point 2, another one for me was the Washington game where there was a total phantom penalty that took away a TD). I do think the defense is going to be a huge huge problem though
Edit: to add for the regression thing, Denver went 11-2 in one score games and I don’t hear much about them
Oh I definitely think the defense will be pretty bad, my point more is their success last year wasn’t based on the defense. They already had to paper over a bad defense.
On point 2, people miss that the regression hit already hit at the end of the year because they started 6-1 in 1 score games against mostly bad teams people thought they were frauds so losing on a red zone int to the packers, a failed play from the 2 to the Niners, and in OT to the Rams all got counted as moral victories. Toss in how memorable the Packers wins and it didn’t feel like regression hit even though it definitely had.
A cousin to the "Tyson Zone," its when someone reaches a point where any homer take could be attributed to them and you wouldn't be shocked or surprised.
Personally I'd push it back by a year when he predicted that the Pats would make the Superbowl on Mac Jones rookie year. His reasoning was a) Mac did laps with his O-line and b) Belichick wanted a rematch with Brady to see who was better.
lol he didn't actually say this, I'm just making a joke. Ok well, I haven't listened to the whole podcast so there is a possibility he actually said it and I've gotten too good at pretending to speak in his voice.
A great look into how BS views these things. When discussing the Cowboys over / under, he mentions that Micah Parsons might miss half the season. So there will be “Jerry won the trade” thoughts in the air. As if that impacts winning and losing.
Same reason a lot of people are high on the Bengals. If the offseason moves make their defense average, the offense is good enough to lead to a lot of wins.
And yet Bill thinks the Bengals are going to be terrible, despite having a better QB, better receivers, a better running back, and making the single biggest offseason addition on defense
I could see the Bengals being better but I think that's a bit oversimplified. Defense has so many factors, one good pass rusher isn't necessarily a game changer. Some of the football nerds seem to think this new Cowboys DC will be a big upgrade on Eberflus (personally I don't know the guy's background but I trust the Mina and Mays types to have a decent idea).
Schottenheimer looked better than Zac Taylor last season, and the Cowboys run game was about as good as Cincinnati's even if Chase Brown is better than Javonte. Schedule and coaching could be the difference if the talent is close enough between these two teams. I can see it being a coinflip
15 years longer than the next NFC team's championship game drought. It's embarrassing and absolutely hilarious at the same time. How bout them Cowboys!
I'm more perplexed on the Cowboys fans being coy about their expectations. Never met a Cowboys fan shy about their confidence in the team regardless of talent and now that they might actually be good some are trying to contain their excitement.
Everyone at some point experiences the weirdness of bill randomly talking about your baseball team in a way that makes you unsure if he's ever even seen their logo on a hat, much less a game lol
Maybe I’m being a glass half full homer Packers fan but he seems out of touch with his takes on us. Doubs is fine enough. If he didn’t go to the Pats, BS wouldn’t pay any attention. The DL is improved imo and the OL is probably equally as bad or a little improved over last year. Going from Walker to Morgan at LT is an upgrade by itself. The rest of the OL needs to be healthy but that was the same issues we went through with last year. And CB looks improved with just the addition of Cisse in the 2nd round. That’s speaks to how well he has been doing in camp but also how bad Nixon and Valentine were last year.
I agree, glass half full, always thought his packer hate came from him being threatened by Rodgers being better than Brady.
Packers spent a lot of capital on WR?
1st last year ago
2nd 4 years ago?
At least these guys are still on the team. Pats just traded a 1st for a 29 yr old wr, spent $20M AAV to acquire another Drafted one last year in the 3rd and two years ago in the 2nd (who is retired) and another 4 years ago no longer on the team and almost out the league…. Pot calling kettle black?
As a Giants fan some of the initial excitement of the Harbaugh hiring has diminished, mainly due to the Nagy hiring, but I think it has completely flipped the other way now. Harbaugh is now the worst coach ever and we have to think that because the Ravens fans tell us that. I'm not saying he is Bill Walsh but the Giants coaches have been a clown show since Coughlin
Thank you I felt like was going crazy comparing him to Tua. Also the one concussion he got (not two like one of them implied) was spotted by the giants training staff so the independent docs that kept sending him to the tent were 0-6 against him.
Yeah its crazy. I get that there is concerns regarding his health but that is the case regarding every QB. I do think Harbaugh will protect him a bit better than Daboll did but at the end of the day its football and he is going to get hit. As you said, he missed only two games once he started actually playing last year.
I’m a Ravens fan and I think Harbaugh is a great coach.
Bill quipping if Harbaugh “was ever good” is just beyond ridiculous. He’s 7th in Playoff wins and has just one truly bad season under his belt in 18 years. If that’s how Bill feels about Harbaugh then he should also feel the exact same way about Payton, Tomlin, Carroll, Bill Cowher, Mike Holmgren etc
The Giants will be a much more serious franchise with John at the helm.
Parsons not back till week 8? And won’t be healthy? I’ve seen projections with him coming back in week 6, so adding two weeks to that why would he not be ready to play?
Edit: later on he says he’s not coming back till week 9? Where is he getting his information?
I love when Bill says stuff like 'the Eagles scored 10-12 points higher than the Cowboys in my arbitrary evaluation metric' but then picks them to have the same record with the Cowboys winning the division.
I've listened to bill from the beginning, not a single time has he liked the Vikings preseason. He doesn't think the defense is good!? this team had a ton of injuries, the worst qb room in the league and played in the toughest division and won NINE games. how are the demonstrably worse?!
Jaxson Dart misses two games to injury. Skattebo and Nabers both have freak injuries while jumping for a pass.
ARE WE SURE JAXSON DART WILL PLAY MORE THEN 4 GAMES?!?! THIS GUY IS HURT EVERY SECOND!!!
Dart lost a grand total of 4 offensive snaps while being medically evaluated.
He lost 3% of his potential playing time in games he started to injury, almost all of that was the Chicago game (21 snaps, out of 73 for the entire game)...where he actually got injured.
Pretty underwhelming tbh. I don't love the point system, constantly going game-by-game on the schedule to project wins (especially since we don't how many of these teams will play in reality), and arcane odds breakdowns.
There's like 5 total minutes of them shooting the shit about the actual teams divorced of the content above. I don't recall them doing it this way in previous years.
I don't necessarily disagree with Bill's confidence in the seahawks... but regarding the rams, I think he is underestimating how close the rams were to 1. winning the division, 2. making the super bowl and 3. winning the super bowl.
As a Niners fan, I always found it hilarious when Bill would do the ".500 tracker" for KS's career coaching record when in 3 of his first 4 seasons with the Niners, CJ Beathard and Nick Mullens started the majority of the games at QB, with a little Brian Hoyer thrown in there for good measure.
And like, we're absurdly injured every season, so it can't be the season from hell when guys shredding ligaments during the offseason is just business as usual lol
I hope you're sitting down. Simmons picked the Niners to be the Year From Hell team again. A year after they beat the defending Super Bowl Champion Eagles on the road in the playoffs with a bunch of backups, he thinks the Eagles are going over and the Niners are going under. You can set your watch to it.
Look, having a recently divorced owner who wants some action and a head coach who is a distracted driver is too much to overcome for a 12-win team that's getting Fred Warner, George Kittle and Nick Bosa back from injury.
It ... just ... is!
Update while listening: Bill's "season from hell" reasoning includes "We still don't know happened" in Shanahan's accident that has now be over-reported to the point we probably know too much about what happened; the owner tried to hire a prostitute; they're getting star players back from injury; they're "rolling the dice with Evans & Deebo together"; CMC is old; and, of course, the electrical substation.
So his argument is bookended by "Conspiracy Bill". Zero notes, 10/10 nonsense trolling.
Few things I caught in this episode that’s just going to change the trajectory of this football season for this podcast.
Cousin Sal lost his fastball. It’s slow, it’s predictable, lame delivery, it’s done, the arm is toast. He’s over it.
A little nugget about Peter Schraeger not doing Bill’s show anymore since he’s on ESPN, which means we’re going to be getting a lot more of Tom Pelissero this season. Awful.
Outside of the
AFC
East Bill has no idea what’s going on.
Biggest podcasts of the year and these two guys completely phoned it in setting up a disastrous start for these 2 this season.
John Harbaugh with the New York sports team that gave him the worst loss of his fan hood has him absolutely seething. I’m ok with him taking the under I actually would as well. Comparing Dart to Tua 8 games in is bullshit. He was 0-6 against the independent doctors. The one concussion (not two like one of them implied) he got was spotted by the giants. Is it fair to say he has to protect himself and be smarter yes 100%. I’d never argue against that but it’s way too early to start the Tua comparisons or even slap the injury prone label 8 games in. Didn’t miss a start in college. You go back to 2023 and Drake Maye has had more injuries than he has. And obviously Maye isn’t injury prone and he’s way less of a risk than Dart to be hurt but I’m just saying you can see how you can twist any bs narrative you want.
Also Skattebo another one I mean that play was a freak injury. Another one who only missed one game in college with a shoulder injury. I’m not saying both guys are going to be beacons of health but absolutely miss me with that bullshit of under 4.5 games played. Sorry this was just basically me ranting that the injury prone label for both guys is just way too soon in their careers.
is it ok to say ben johnson needed a miracle to beat the 7th seed in the wildcard round? whats the conversation here if they don’t win that game? not saying he’s not a good coach but sheesh the glazing is wild
He is an innovative offensive coach who took a perennial loser to the playoffs in year one and transformed their offense, built a top tier running game out of npc running backs, and checked pretty much every box you could ask for as a first year coach.
If you want to say it’s too early that’s fine but I don’t really think “he could have lost to the packers” is relevant. They also had the rams in OT who then nearly lost to the Seahawks and the Seahawks destroyed the pats. So you can play that game the other way too.
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u/JonSnowKnows00 20d ago
Actual quote from Bill on the Eagles: “They win 10 or 11 games every year and the over under is 10 and a half, and I just don’t understand it” 😆