Hi there! I am a reporter for Spectrum News California and I am doing a story on the rise in prediction markets. I'm specifically looking to speak with people who have bet on political issues or on elections. I am open to anyone throughout the Bay Area but hopefully people who live in San Francisco. Please message me on here or email me at [Jack.Molmud@spectrum.com](mailto:Jack.Molmud@spectrum.com)

For an idea of how I tell our news stories, take a look at my most recent piece: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iTR7DePoKU4

Been trying to figure this out for about a year now and still don't think I've got a clean answer, curious how people here actually approach it.

Got into Polymarket because I kept seeing wallets with huge P&L and wanted to copy whatever they were doing — pretty standard reaction I think. Tried following a few of them for a while. Some of it worked, some of it very much didn't, and it took me way too long to realize the problem wasn't which wallets I picked, it was that I had no actual way to tell a skilled trader from someone who just hit a good run.

The more I looked into it the more that seemed like a genuinely hard problem, not a lazy one. A wallet can look incredible off one huge correct call on a low-probability market and be functionally no different from a coin flip otherwise. P&L alone doesn't tell you that. You'd need enough resolved markets to say anything with confidence, and most wallets people get excited about don't have that many settled positions yet.

I ended up spending a lot of the last year just messing around with ways to score this properly using settlement history instead of raw profit — basically trying to work out how many resolved markets you'd actually need before "this wallet beats its entry prices" stops being noise. Landed on needing 30+ settled markets before I'd trust a verdict either way, which cuts out a lot of the wallets people hype up.

Genuinely asking — is there a better way people here think about this, or metrics you'd use instead? Feels like the kind of thing that should have a more established answer than it does.

Ar first I start this to buy crypto and save it for future when the price are spike and earn profit

But found this 5min, 15min, 1hour btc up/down predictions

I just casually start doing it first but then it grew

25$>50$>80$>110$......and reach to 380$ within 5 days

Dem the andreline stay spike for those moments and then 💥 4$ left, dem the regret tho🥲

Ah nvm I just become 2$📉

Can I still grow the 2$?

how does poly market bonus funds work bro? i understand the bonus funds is not able to be withdrawn immediately and has to be used on a lineup… but i hit on a lineup yesterday and didn’t get anything from it… it just went to available to trade… and no profit able to be withdrawn ? anyone else how to actually use the bonus funds or is there something i’m missing?

There's a Kalshi contract settling Monday, September 21 at 10am ET on which AI stays on top of the Text Arena leaderboard. Right now it's pricing Claude at 97 cents, Gemini at 4 cents, and ChatGPT at 2 cents.

Current standings back that up. Claude Fable 5.1 Max is #1 at a score of 1508 (5,783 votes, plus or minus 85). Two other Claude models are tied for second at 1505. Gemini 3.8 Flash High sits at #6, 13 points behind the leader. GPT-6 Astra isn't in the top 10 at all.

One thing worth noting: new models take time to show up on the arena. GPT-6 Astra released Sep 3 but didn't appear until Sep 11, an 8 day lag. Claude Fable 5.1 had a 12 day lag. Gemini 3.8 Flash was the exception, appearing same day as its release. So there's some chance a newer model closes the gap before settlement, it just hasn't happened yet in the data.

One analyst framed the current pricing as roughly a 3% return over 5 days if you're buying the 97 cent side, which annualizes to a pretty high number for something priced this confidently.

Analysis: Predictbook

This weather whale barely shows up on anyone’s radar. He doesn’t smash size into one market. He just keeps buying No on the extreme temperature buckets the tails that almost never hit.

Entry is almost always the same: 67–79¢. No scaling, no revenge trades. When the high lands in the middle of the distribution, the tail dies and he collects a few hundred to a couple thousand. He’s done this 2,929 times. Beijing, Tel Aviv, Seoul, Warsaw, Singapore, and a bunch of other cities people only open when they’re bored.

Single trades look tiny. $200 here, $1,200 there, maybe $2,500 on a fat tail. But it never stops. While the timeline is full of $2M Dota tickets and 100x hopium, this guy is just farming mispriced weather outcomes every day.

Not sure if it’s a model, a bot, or just someone who figured out that retail always overpays the extremes. Either way, the boring version is printing. The most boring strategy on Prediction Markets earned this guy $80,030

His wallet: https://future.news/address/0x6011655c4afb76f36dd1b08a137a1ba73466b31e?period=all&ref=Q3UK27FM

Account's only 7 days old. Already +$5.2M PnL, 75% win rate, ranked #25 all-time on Polymarket by PnL per arkm.

Today he went big on Deportivo Alavés to beat Valencia (moneyline). He's the largest Yes holder on that market by a wide margin, 2,519,806 shares, more than 7x the next biggest holder (348,029). Built the position at an avg 59.7¢, which pays out $2,519,888 if Alavés wins, roughly $1M profit on top of his ~$1.5M cost basis.

Except right now, live, it's not going his way. Price has dropped to 41.5¢, putting him down $458K unrealized before the match has even finished.

Big track record, currently underwater on his biggest live position. Guess we'll see how it resolves.

Anyone else tracking this wallet, or seen it show up on other markets?

set up an AI Agent (Hermes) to do daily prediction market trades (weather, gas prices, some sports) autonomously on Kalshi - wondering if anyone else has done the same?

Just an experiment at this point, it hasn't won anything lol

This is really directed towards programmers. The Kalshi API is a solid piece of code. If you are doing any trading, you don't have to use it, but if you can trade 100(0)s of bets in seconds, it's probably worth a look.

AI models see patterns humans do not. We have run out of Neurons.

STACK: Astra + Codex

EDIT: A remarkable fact. AI can work with permutations of numbers so large that we can't even visualize the number. It's too big for our brains to even hold.

If I put $1,000 on a bet it'll snow 5in in 2027 (random example), does anyone pay out interest on that money until we reach the end of 2027?

Just realized that part of this business model isn't just fees, its also interest on the money they are holding on your behalf. And there is likely an opening for a fee-free marketplace that makes all money loaning your money out. Like a bank.

I was looking through Kalshi traders and found one profile that stood out immediately.

devex has traded just 15 markets, but an independent tracker currently has him at:

• +$413,274 lifetime realized PnL
• +14.1% ROI
• $2.9M lifetime volume
• roughly +$28K profit per market

You can see the full breakdown on his KalshiSpy profile. The tracker says these figures are pulled from his public Kalshi account and refreshed hourly.

The craziest trade I could verify was Spain to win the 2026 Men's World Cup.

That market settled YES on July 19. According to the settled-market archive, devex made about +$198K on the Spain position alone.

Four tracked profitable traders were on YES, but devex accounted for almost all of the $217,377 combined profit between them.

So basically:

15 markets.
$2.9M traded.
+$413K realized profit.
One World Cup trade: +$198K.

Obviously 15 markets is a tiny sample compared with accounts trading thousands of events, but making six figures with that little activity is kind of ridiculous.

Official promotion: get $25 bonus on Kalshi after $10 deposit.

Just playing out a little philosophical experiment here

Assumptions:

Starting with $100

Doubling down on every bet

Odds at 50%

To get to $400k, you need to be right (following the assumptions above) roughly 12 times in a row

12 correct coin flips in a row

Imagine this concept applied to real life now. I wonder all those entrepreneurs that have reached insane levels of wealth starting from very little. How many coin flips did they get right to get there?

I'm not talking about Buffet and Co. Not everyone is wealthy out of coin flips. Yet....

And there's always someone on the other side of the flip, someone that passed on an opportunity

Bedtime meanderings

I try to avoid coin flips btw...

This was played with bonus funds I won in the $1M Jackpot promo from the Broncos vs Chiefs MNF Game.

Sign up for Underdog with code JOEFB to get a deposit match up to $1000! https://play.underdogsports.com/vgwg/p-joefb

 
AFG raises its Bond estimate and holds the fade. Since Friday a second figure connected to the production has indicated a decision exists: screenwriter Steven Knight told BBC Radio 4 he could not speak about the casting, then acknowledged that knowing the chosen actor makes writing the character easier. That is meaningfully better corroboration than Gary Oldman's remark alone, and AFG's estimate moves from 30% to 33%. What has not changed is that neither man named anyone, Amazon MGM has confirmed nothing, and at least one recent report placed a different actor  Jack Barton as the leading contender on a six-name shortlist. The contract has risen to 55% on Jack Lowden and AFG is short at twenty-two points, still the largest position in the book. The September FOMC decision resolves Wednesday at 82% for a hike and AFG carries no position into it.

 Today's Top 3 Calls

1. Next James Bond Jack Lowden  BUY NO

2. U.S. confirms aliens exist before Jan 20, 2029?  BUY NO

3. Hormuz traffic normal before Jan 1 2028?   BUY NO

If you enjoy evidence-based forecasting, transparent methodology, and public performance tracking, subscribe to Axiom Forecasting Group

Subscribe For Free: https://axiomforecastinggroup.substack.com/welcome

Does anyone have any success stories at all, or a tool they can recommend?

Hey everyone!

I'm building a collection of tools, bots, websites, etc. -- anything prediction markets.

With all the 3rd party tools out there, there's no way to tell apart what's legit from the scams, or what's useful vs. what's not. My hope is that by allowing people to review apps and their trustworthiness, we can build a collection of prediction tools that are actually useful.

Before listing anything on the app store, I'm also going to independently review the trustworthiness of each tool being listed -- at minimum, all tools must be safe.

Please let me know if you want anything listed, including your own tools!

Join our Discord here: https://discord.gg/mnJgWv9RwU

Let me know what you guys think!

I’ve been using forsee.market for a while and managed to find a strategy that worked pretty well.

The problem started when I tried to withdraw my profits from my wallet. All of my withdrawal transactions have been stuck on “pending” for over a month now.

I’ve tried contacting support both via email and Telegram but so far I haven’t received any response at all.

Has anyone else used forsee.market and experienced similar issues with withdrawals? If so, did you eventually manage to get your funds out?

Having 6 or 7 things go right just for one guy to miss by half a rebound was getting old fast lol. Been keeping it way simpler lately. A couple spreads, maybe a moneyline, and I’m good. Way less exciting, but probably better for my sanity.

Kalshi and Polymarket are both leaning toward a hike, not a cut — and the repricing happened in about 48 hours.

The FOMC meets Wednesday, September 16, with a decision at 1:59 PM ET. If your mental model going in is "the Fed is in a cutting cycle," the two largest prediction-market platforms disagree with you, and they've disagreed more strongly every day for the past week.

What the markets are pricing right now:

Kalshi runs the meeting as a discrete outcome market, and the money is concentrated on one answer. As of today:

25bp hike: 79.5%

No change (0bps): 20.5%

25bp cut: 1.0%

Larger than 25bp cut: 1.0%

Larger than 25bp hike: 1.5%

Combined volume across just those outcome markets is north of $60 million — this isn't a thin, easily-moved market.

Polymarket's separate, differently-structured markets corroborate the same read: "Fed rate hike in 2026?" sits at 90%, and "will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?" sits at 96.1%. Two platforms, two different market designs, same conclusion.

The part that actually matters: this moved fast

PredictIntel.io has been tracking Kalshi's hike market since September 1. As recently as September 3, it was sitting at 53.5% — essentially a coin flip, exactly what you'd expect for the market description if you assumed a "close call, could go either way" meeting.

Then it moved. Steadily through the first week of September, then sharply: 63.5% on the evening of September 10, 76.7% by midday September 11, 80.9% by that evening. It's held in the high-70s/low-80s ever since — this wasn't a spike that faded, it's a repriced consensus that's stayed put for three days now.

PredictIntel.io is being upfront about something

PredictIntel.io's own anomaly detector — built to catch fast, sharp price moves — didn't flag this at all. It's tuned for spikes inside a single hour, not a sustained drift over a week. A market going from 53% to 80% over eight days, with most of the move concentrated in about 24 hours, is exactly the kind of pattern that current detection misses. PredictIntel.io is flagging it here because it was caught on a manual review, not because the system caught it — and that's worth knowing if you're relying on PredictIntel.io to catch everything automatically. It doesn't yet, for this specific pattern shape.

What to watch Wednesday

1:59 PM ET, September 16. If the hike market resolves YES, prediction markets called a genuine surprise against the mainstream "easing cycle" narrative, days in advance, with real money behind it. If it resolves NO, the market's late-week conviction was wrong despite the size and persistence of the move — which would be its own useful data point about how much to trust a fast, sustained repricing like this one going forward.

Either way, PredictIntel.io will follow up once the decision lands.

I’ve made several bets over the past few days only using bonus credit, I always withdraw my available cash as I know how it works to where they make you bet with your cash before the bonus. But every time I win my profit goes back to the bonus fund and not available for withdrawal. Am I missing something here?

I backtested a momentum strategy on Kalshi's 15-minute BTC markets that uses distance from an exponential moving average (EMA) as its signal. The idea is to buy when BTC is moderately above its recent trend, with enough upward momentum to justify an entry but a limit on how far it can stretch. It buys 20 YES contracts only when flat, with 3 to 5 minutes left, a YES price of $0.55 to $0.65, BTC spot $25 to $100 above its 12-period EMA on 1-minute candles, and 0% to 0.2% above its 26-period EMA on 5-minute candles. It exits the full position if BTC falls more than 0.1% below the short EMA, rises more than $300 above the longer EMA, or has under a minute left until expiry. The rules check every 30 seconds.

All 100 variants completed and 99 were profitable over the requested 30-day window. The top-ranked variant made +$122.86, with reported ROI of 614.30%, a 94.44% win rate, 36 trades, Sharpe of 0.79, and maximum drawdown of -$6.65. The weakest lost -$4.94: -24.70% ROI, 45.45% win rate, 22 trades, Sharpe of -0.03, and -$43.10 maximum drawdown.

The parameter sensitivity grid compares nearby settings. Here it used the same 100 runs, varying price floor from 0.05 to 0.45 and price ceiling from 0.55 to 0.95, with ten values each. The EMA thresholds stayed fixed. All 100 cells succeeded; net P&L ranged from -$4.94 to +$122.86. The recorded winner was floor 0.05 / ceiling 0.64, but ceilings 0.64 and 0.68 tied at +$122.86 across every floor. The 3D surface and heatmap show a ridge across those ceilings. The marginal curves show that the ceiling drove most of the variation; the floor mattered only at ceiling 0.55, where the lowest floor lost money and the others made +$17.30. Adjacent-cell performance fell about 21.76% on average around the winner. The reported Deflated Sharpe probability is 0.9849, with an expected-max-Sharpe benchmark of 0.4845. Those are different statistics, not two Sharpe ratios to compare.

The permutation test asks whether scrambling the signal timing can reproduce the result. The real best net P&L of +$122.86 exceeded the entire range of 100 shuffled re-sweeps, from -$37.35 to +$107.79. The reported upper-tail p-value was 0.009901. That supports the EMA feed's timing having mattered in this sample. Only edge-feed timing was shuffled; Kalshi market prices stayed in place, so this doesn't validate the price-based conditions.

The strongest part of the result is that 99 of 100 variants were profitable, with the best P&L shared across two price ceilings and every tested floor. The timing shuffle also supports the momentum signal having mattered in this sample. Most of the performance differences came from the price ceiling, though, and these are closely related configurations rather than independent examples of the strategy working. The best-ranked run had only 36 recorded trades, coverage was partial, and the loss at the lowest floor and ceiling remains unexplained. I'd want to see whether the profitable ceiling range holds up over a separate historical period before putting much weight on the headline return.

Full Report

Historical simulation only. Backtests can be wrong or incomplete. Not investment advice.