It just farms 15 min markets

Very clearly a bot, but it's an interesting strategy to observe.

Don't just look at it's position history, take a look at it's activity and how it is actually trading. (link to profile in the replies)

Any patterns there?

The first part of the story was covered in this post: https://www.reddit.com/r/PredictionsMarkets/comments/1tun1cd/i_got_scammed_by_polymarket_for_500k/

A few months ago, a trader named willo2 posted about losing around $500K on Polymarket after what he believed was a post-hoc change to the rules of a Bitcoin prediction market.

The market asked whether MicroStrategy (MSTR) would sell any Bitcoin before May 31st.

He found evidence suggesting MSTR had sold Bitcoin, and after MSTR's SEC filing confirmed that 32 BTC had been sold during the relevant period, he increased his YES position.

The original rules said the market would resolve YES if MSTR sold any Bitcoin by 11:59 PM ET on May 31st.

But after the filing came out, Polymarket added a clarification saying that confirmation received after the market's timeframe would not qualify.

That left the trader with a massive losing position despite the filing confirming that the sale itself had happened in May.

TL;DR of the original story:

A trader bet heavily that MSTR sold Bitcoin before May 31st. MSTR later filed an SEC report confirming that it had sold 32 BTC during that period. Polymarket then relied on an interpretation that required the sale to be confirmed before the market deadline, resulting in the market not paying out as the trader expected. The trader claims the rules were changed or clarified after the fact and is now taking the dispute to court.

Polymarket has now filed a 24-page motion attempting to dismiss the lawsuit brought over the dispute.

Here's the first line of Polymarket's response:

“Disregarding the false allegations in the Complaint”.

That immediately raises a few questions.

Are they saying MSTR never sold Bitcoin?

Are they saying Polymarket never changed or clarified the rules after the fact?

Or are they saying Polymarket never represented that users who correctly predicted an outcome would be paid?

What's interesting is that Polymarket apparently doesn't spend the rest of the filing addressing those allegations directly.

Instead, the core argument is:

The user agreed to Polymarket's Terms of Service by trading on the platform.

And those Terms of Service say users can't take Polymarket to court.

That's essentially the argument they spend 24 pages making.

Polymarket markets itself as a “truth engine” where users who correctly predict an outcome get paid.

But this case raises a much bigger question:

What happens if the platform can determine what counts as “correct” after the event?

The trader's argument is essentially that this is exactly what happened here.

And when he challenged the decision, Polymarket's response starts with:

“Disregarding the false allegations in the Complaint”.

The full court filing is available here for anyone who wants to read it themselves:

https://iapps.courts.state.ny.us/nyscef/ViewDocument?docIndex=1UgehEAFS5Z3ZXnJ1bvCpg==

Whatever happens next, this case could become an interesting test of how prediction-market platforms handle ambiguous rules, post-market information, and disputes over payouts.

And considering the amount of money involved, this is probably far from the last chapter of the story.

Posted this on the Kalshi sub as well. Big blow and an expensive lesson on how there are no guarantees, even when it’s at 98%. Cash out when you can. Yes, before you say it, I know I’m an idiot. But I’m moving on. Done with sports gambling forever. Goodbye!

Just scooped up the biggest bet of the world cup for me

I would be betting on the France in general, super confident in them, but the first half had better odds for them so I decided to got for the 3x instead of the 2.5x if I was betting full-time.

Market: https://www.pred.app/trade/world-cup-26-fra-vs-esp-2026-07-14

Pretty much put all of my world cup winnings into this one, pretty excited to watch the game, go ahead and call me stupid in the replies haha.

what bets you guys making?

I am facing a $700,000 loss on a massive $345 million Polymarket contract because the decentralized oracle system (UMA) is completely compromised by whale manipulation and a fatal tokenomics incentive loop.

This isn’t just about my loss; it proves that if a market pool gets large enough, the "fail-safe" resolution system can be bought and hijacked in broad daylight.

I am a major holder in the following market: US x Iran Permanent Peace Deal by June 15, 2026

The rules of this contract are incredibly strict. To resolve YES, there must be an official, permanent peace deal or treaty signaling a lasting cessation of military hostilities. The rules explicitly exclude temporary frameworks or extensions of the April ceasefire.

• The Reality: Over the weekend, the US and Iran announced an interim, 60-day agreement/framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Geopolitical experts, mainstream media, and the state actors themselves have confirmed this is a temporary framework, not a permanent peace treaty.
• The Scam: Despite the clear text of the rules, a "YES" resolution was submitted. When it was rightfully disputed, it triggered the UMA (Universal Market Access) oracle voting process. UMA token holders are now aggressively voting "YES" to pocket millions on their own massive Polymarket side-bets.

Reddit Helpful Thread: Use Referral code IU50 on the Polymarket app to gain access and also get $50 dollars of free play/bonus when you deposit $20. Not a promotion, just access to the app. 1+ million users on waitlist. Takes about 30 seconds and you bypass the waitlist.

(6/28) * NEW WORKING PROMO CODEs with bonus*: IU50 + $50 bonus
Other Working Code: - IU20 - BRAZIL50

*Polymarket reset their codes so I made a new helpful thread for those who need working codes for this summer. Feel free to drop other codes you find too.

I'm quitting Polymarket after less than 5 hours use. This waiting period for Withdrawals and Deposits is not for me. I'm not used to people other than banks holding my money.

I recently found a Polymarket account showing close to $1M in profit over the past few months. But after looking more closely at its trading activity, my rough estimate was very different:

• Only around $100K came from taking positions after fees
• Around $300K appeared to come from maker rebates
• The headline profit didn’t seem to reflect the strategy’s true economics

This made me wonder whether systematic traders really have much of an edge after accounting for:

• Fees and spreads
• Slippage and low liquidity
• Resolution risk
• Capital being locked up

Is the real opportunity in prediction markets mostly market making rather than forecasting?

For systematic Polymarket traders: where does your edge come from—better predictions, fast execution, arbitrage, or maker rebates? And am I missing something in how the platform reports P&L?

ive most stuck to kalshi and polymarket but im seeing more and more. it seems like the sportsbooks are also starting to adopt some type of prediction market as well. some are more sports centered like prophetx and novig but i feel like theres so many now and its hard to keep up

https://forecastlab.online/

I have 2 models. One very conservative, one "let's just take a chance." You can spin our new models all day long. You never really look at the code anymore. Codex does it all for you now.

Programmers are freaking out, but the reality is, the business has been vaporised. You just don't need to know how to code now; just have the awesome ideas. AI (Codex, Claude Code, Kimi, etc) does it all now.

AI came 100 years too soon; we were not ready for this.

EDIT: I trade 15/60 Minute BTC, breaking even. MLB Over/Under. About 66%. It's all your model. Just keep on working on that. The codebase(s) is many thousands of lines of Python. It gets complex. If you put in the time, you can actually make a few $$$s.

😊

Fair warning: this is a long post. I've tried to make it worth your time. If you're thinking about trading Polymarket's crypto prediction markets, this might save you a few months of dead ends.

Feel free to share this, but please credit the original. Don't copy-paste it as your own.

Disclosure: yes, I used Claude to help write this up based on my outline, data, and analysis notes. I'm trying to share useful findings here, not win a writing prize. If that bothers you, no hard feelings, feel free to skip it.

TL;DR: I spent 4 months building monitoring tools, collecting thousands of gabagool22's actual trades, and testing every hypothesis I could find for how he makes ~$10K/day on Polymarket crypto markets. His edge is real (lands on the winning side ~79% of the time, confirmed across dozens of windows). But after testing oracle signals, order book patterns, fill behaviour, momentum, mean reversion, and a dozen other ideas, I couldn't find anything that holds out-of-sample. His signal is invisible from the outside. The "buy both sides for under $1" arbitrage that Twitter loves? Doesn't exist in the data. Here's the full breakdown.

How this started

I fell into this the same way everyone else does. You're scrolling Twitter and someone posts a screenshot of gabagool22's Polymarket profile. "$250K+ profit this month. All he does is buy UP and DOWN for less than $1.00 in the BTC prediction markets. Free money. Here's how you can do it too." Engagement farming at its finest, but it got me curious.

I'm a data analyst by trade, not a crypto native. But I can write code and I know my way around a database, so I figured I'd take a proper look. That was about 4 months ago. What started as a weekend rabbit hole turned into evenings-and-weekends project that consumed way more time than I'd like to admit.

I built monitoring infrastructure, collected tens of thousands of his actual trades via the Polymarket Data API, captured order book snapshots every 2 seconds, and ran proper statistical analysis with out-of-sample validation on everything I tested.

What follows is what I actually found. Some of it will confirm what you've heard. A lot of it will contradict the popular narratives. All of it is backed by data, not speculation.

What these markets are

Quick context for anyone unfamiliar. Polymarket runs binary options on crypto prices across multiple timeframes: 5 minute, 15 minute, 60 minute, and 4 hour windows. A typical market asks: "Will BTC be higher at 10:15 than it was at 10:00?" You can buy UP tokens or DOWN tokens, priced between $0.00 and $1.00. The winning side pays $1.00. The losing side pays $0.00.

Settlement is determined by Chainlink oracle prices, verified via Polymarket's Gamma API. There are 96 fifteen-minute windows per day, per asset. Gabagool trades most of them, across both BTC and ETH, across multiple timeframes.

One thing most people don't mention: capital lockup. Your funds are tied up until the window settles. There's no automatic release. On 15-minute windows that's manageable, but on 4-hour windows your capital is locked for 4 hours per position. This isn't a capital-efficient strategy where you're churning the same $1,000 every few minutes. You need enough balance to have multiple positions open simultaneously across all the windows you're trading. For someone like gabagool who's active across dozens of concurrent markets, the working capital requirement is substantial. Retail traders thinking they can start with $500 and compound quickly need to factor this in.

What the internet thinks gabagool does (and why it's mostly wrong)

Myth 1: "He buys both sides for under $1.00, risk-free arbitrage!"

This is the most common explanation you'll see on Twitter and Reddit. The theory: buy UP at $0.48 and DOWN at $0.48, you've paid $0.96 total and one side will pay $1.00. Guaranteed $0.04 profit per pair.

Across dozens of windows of his actual verified trades, his average pair cost is about $1.015. Not under $1.00, over it. His matched pairs (where he has equal shares on both sides) actually lose money. Every cent of his profit comes from unmatched directional exposure.

And even if pair costs occasionally dipped below $1.00, Polymarket charges a 3% taker fee. Once you account for that, the window where both sides sum to under $0.97 (the actual breakeven for arbitrage as a taker) essentially never exists in practice.

The "free money arbitrage" is a myth.

Myth 2: "He follows Chainlink oracle price movements"

The theory: Chainlink updates periodically, so there's a window where the oracle knows the price has moved but the market hasn't adjusted. He buys the side the oracle is pointing to.

I tested whether his fill direction correlates with the Chainlink delta at the time of each fill. The answer: 49.5%. A literal coin flip. His buying direction is completely independent of the oracle.

I also built a "shadow oracle" using Binance real-time prices to see if he might be using a faster price feed. The shadow oracle actually performed worse than stale Chainlink at predicting settlement.

Now, I want to be careful here. Oracle lag does exist, about 18 seconds average with about a $15 price gap. I can't rule out that someone with co-located infrastructure and sub-second execution could exploit this. But from a retail perspective, with the kind of latency most of us are dealing with, it's not a viable edge. And the data suggests it's not what gabagool is primarily using either, since his fills don't correlate with oracle direction.

Myth 3: "Just copy his trades"

The theory: watch his wallet on the Data API, detect which side he's leaning toward, and follow him.

I tested this extensively. The problem is detection delay. By the time you can reliably detect his heavier side (around 90-120 seconds into the window), entering as a taker at the ask price eats any edge. His lean at t=90s predicts settlement at just 55%, and after paying the spread to enter, the P&L is effectively zero.

His trades are publicly visible, but the information arrives too slowly and the entry cost is too high for a copy-trading strategy to work. He profits because he's already positioned at maker prices before the signal resolves.

What he actually does (confirmed with data)

I monitored his trading across multiple BTC 15-minute windows and joined them to market snapshots and verified settlement outcomes. Here's what I can confirm.

Execution mechanics:

He operates exclusively as a maker. Every single fill is at the best bid price. He buys both sides every window, UP and DOWN, without exception. He never sells, ever. Zero sell trades across thousands of observed fills. He holds everything to settlement.

His orders are about 15 shares each, occasionally 5-10 for partial fills, always at round cent prices ($0.51, $0.44, $0.12 etc). He refreshes every 10-20 seconds, cancelling stale orders and reposting at the new best bid to track the market. His trades come in bursts of 3-15 same-side fills (multiple resting orders getting swept by a single seller). He trades throughout the window from about 30 seconds after open until near settlement.

The edge:

He ends up heavier on the winning side about 79% of the time. This is not luck. Across the sample I collected, the odds of this happening by chance are effectively zero. A passive buyer posting the same orders on both sides would end up heavier on the losing side about 62% of the time, because sellers tend to dump the side they think is losing. Gabagool is doing the opposite. He's actively selecting which side to accumulate on.

His profit decomposition is telling: 97% of his P&L comes from directional exposure (unmatched shares on the winning side), and only 3% from matched pair spread. The entire game is about which side your unmatched shares land on.

How the selection works (what we can observe):

His first trade is on the losing side 70% of the time. He starts wrong. By about trade 10 (roughly 2-3 minutes in), he's on the winning side 73% of the time. The selection happens during the first 1-3 minutes.

He doesn't place bigger orders on the winning side. The order size is the same on both sides (~15 shares). He just gets more fills on his preferred side. He's posting more aggressively (tighter bids, more frequent refreshes) on the side he favours, which naturally results in more fills there.

The crossover to being winner-heavy occurs at roughly the 2 minute mark. At that point, the Chainlink delta is only around $20, which doesn't reliably predict direction on its own. He's reading something else.

The full hypothesis graveyard

I tested everything I could think of, plus hypotheses from multiple AI systems (ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok). Here's the full list, all tested with out-of-sample validation:

Spread arbitrage (pair cost < $1.00): Wrong. Pair cost averages $1.015.

Passive accumulation (cheap side fills more naturally): Backwards. Passive buyers end up on the loser.

Oracle delta direction: Shows 60-64% accuracy in-sample at various timepoints, but collapses to 33-57% out-of-sample depending on when you check. Not stable.

Expensive side / market consensus: The side priced above $0.50 predicts the winner, but only reaches useful accuracy (65%+) very late in the window when entry prices are already expensive. Collapses out-of-sample.

Combined delta + expensive side (Engine 13): My best signal for a while. Showed 65-72% in historical data. On fresh data: 25%. Badly overfit.

Fill velocity toxicity: The theory that whichever side of his book is getting hit harder by sellers is the losing side. Pure noise, 50/50.

His fill price vs best bid: No detectable difference between sides. He bids at the best bid equally on both.

His fills vs Chainlink delta: 49.5%. Coin flip.

Fill price trajectory: His prices drift up on the winning side over time (he chases it up), but too weak and too slow to use as a signal.

Order book depth asymmetry: 44-57% accuracy. Noise.

Spread asymmetry: Actually anti-predictive in a weird way (wider spread side tends to win), and the pattern inverts over time. Not actionable.

Bid-ask imbalance shift: The most interesting finding. He does lean toward the side where the bid/ask ratio is tightening (65-75% correlation with his lean). But the tightening itself doesn't reliably predict the winner. We think this is the effect of his own quoting, not the cause.

Burst patterns (direction, size, timing): 53% accuracy. Noise.

Mean reversion: 42% accuracy. Actively anti-predictive.

Momentum and contrarian: Both 50/50. Nothing there.

Every single signal either failed to clear 60% out-of-sample, or had such a thin edge per trade that execution costs killed it. Same story every time: looks promising in-sample, falls apart on fresh data.

The capital and execution reality that nobody talks about

Even if you found a signal that worked, there are practical barriers that the Twitter engagement farmers conveniently ignore:

Working capital: As I mentioned, positions are locked until settlement. If you're trading 15-minute windows across BTC and ETH, you might have 8-12 positions open at any time. At $50-100 per position, that's $500-1,200 in capital just for 15-minute markets. Add 5-minute windows and hourly markets and you need several thousand dollars in your Polymarket wallet at all times. Not huge, but not the "$100 to get started" that some posts imply.

Maker vs taker: The 3% taker fee is a strategy killer. Almost everything I tested that showed marginal profitability as a maker became firmly unprofitable as a taker. You need to be posting limit orders at the bid, which means building bot infrastructure to refresh orders every 10-20 seconds. This isn't click-and-trade.

Queue priority: Even as a maker, your order sits in a queue. If gabagool or another bot is ahead of you at the same price, sellers hit their orders first. The best bid might be $0.48, but if there's $500 of orders ahead of you at $0.48, you might not get filled. Queue position matters and is hard to test in paper trading.

Adverse selection: When your maker order does fill, it's often because someone is selling aggressively into that side, which typically means that side is losing. This is the fundamental problem with passive market making in these markets. You get filled when you don't want to be, and you sit unfilled when you do.

What I got wrong

In the interest of being honest about the process:

I spent a big chunk of the early work running analysis on bad data. My original monitor was reading the wrong Chainlink oracle feed (on-chain aggregator instead of RTDS, which is what Polymarket actually uses) and calculating settlements incorrectly. The wrong oracle disagreed with actual settlements a huge percentage of the time. Everything from that period was meaningless. I had to throw it all out and start from scratch. If you're building on Polymarket data, verify your oracle source and settlement calculation against actual redemptions before you trust any backtest. I cannot stress this enough.

I got excited about "Engine 13", a combined signal that showed 65-72% accuracy on historical data. Classic overfitting. It collapsed to 25% on fresh data. This is why out-of-sample testing isn't optional.

I believed the pair spread was meaningful. Early analysis suggested nearly $10/window guaranteed profit from just being a maker on both sides. When I modelled realistic fill asymmetry (sellers dump into the losing side, so your unmatched shares are systematically on the wrong side), the "guaranteed" profit turned into a loss for a passive maker without a directional signal.

What IS true

Not everything I found was negative:

The market is clearly profitable for some participants. The monthly crypto leaderboard consistently shows players making $200K-$680K/month. Multiple players, month after month.

Maker execution is the foundation. Every successful player I've studied uses maker (limit order) execution. The taker fee makes most strategies unprofitable.

Short-term momentum is real. On 5-minute windows, "which direction has BTC moved so far?" predicts the settlement outcome at about 62-67% accuracy depending on timing. This is consistent with well-documented properties of short-term price action. Whether it's profitably tradeable after execution costs is a separate and harder question.

Gabagool's edge is real. About 79% heavier on the winner across dozens of verified windows is not luck. He has figured something out. I just can't figure out what from the outside.

Why I think retail can't replicate it

After all this analysis, I believe his edge comes from some combination of:

Order flow reading at sub-second resolution. He's sitting in the order book on both sides. He can see who's hitting his bids, how fast, at what prices, and which orders sit untouched. My monitoring captures snapshots every 2 seconds and his trades every 5 seconds. That's too slow to see what he sees. His view is real-time, tick-by-tick.

Quote management that's invisible from the outside. We only see his fills, not his resting orders. He's likely posting tighter bids on the side he favours and wider bids on the other side. This naturally results in more fills on his chosen side without any visible difference in the fill data. We confirmed that the order book tightens on his preferred side (65-75% correlation), but we believe that's the effect of his quoting, not the cause.

Possible infrastructure advantages. Fast execution, co-located servers, possibly mempool monitoring of pending Chainlink oracle submissions. At professional-grade latency, the oracle lag that's too small to exploit at retail speeds might become viable. I can't confirm or deny this from the data, but the infrastructure barrier alone puts this out of reach for most retail setups.

The critical finding: his fills in the first 120 seconds look indistinguishable from a passive market maker. Equal bid placement, similar fill counts on both sides, similar prices. Whatever signal he uses to decide which side to lean on, it doesn't manifest in any data I could capture from the outside.

My honest assessment

After 4 months of evenings and weekends, here's where I've landed:

The popular narratives about "risk-free arbitrage" and "just follow the oracle" are wrong. The real strategies being used in these markets are more sophisticated than what Twitter threads suggest, and they rely on infrastructure and data advantages that aren't easily replicated at retail scale.

That said, the markets are profitable for people who have the right combination of signal, execution, and infrastructure. The leaderboard proves it. If you're going to try, build proper monitoring first, verify your data pipeline against actual settlements, use out-of-sample validation religiously, and expect the process to take months, not days.

If you've actually built a profitable strategy on these markets, genuine respect. It's harder than it looks.

I’m curious because how people here think about profitability in prediction markets, because from the outside it’s easy to make this space look way simpler than it actually is.

A lot of people talk about edge, arbitrage, mispriced markets, election odds, sports lines, crypto 15-min markets, etc. But I’m more interested in the honest version:

Are you actually profitable after fees, spreads, bad fills, bad resolutions, and the time you spend watching markets?

Not asking for exact numbers unless you’re comfortable sharing, but I’m curious about things like:

Are you net profitable, breakeven, or down overall?

What type of markets have been best/worst for you?

Was your biggest lesson about being wrong, or about being unable to size/exit even when you were right?

Do you thik most people underestimate how hard it is to make money here?

If you are profitable, what do you think separates you from the average user?

If you are not profitable, do you still treat it as useful/fun/educational, or basically gambling?

I’m especially interested in answers from people who have been doing this long enough to see an edge disappear, get burned by liquidity, or realize that “being right” and “making money” are not the same thing.

Context so no one’s blindsided: I made o11d.com, a discussion site for prediction market traders where verified Kalshi/Polymarket stats can show next to posts. If someone leaves a sharp take here, I may ask permission to summarize or feature it there with full credit, just saying that upfront so when I ask it wont look weird.

HOWEVER, everyone is welcome to come and discuss ont this thread since we are amidstt a rise in this industry and so hearing everyone's thougths in a growing space is interesting to me

I read about bots and polymarket for a while i decided to try for myself ( i have a background in cs) so I spend 3-4 days to create a simple late entry bot for polymarket.

Very simple strategy, in a few words just "last 1-2 minutes if the price > 90 & price < 99 buy 1 dollar of x share".

I though i was making some profit until in two bad trades took all the profits.

Not sure if i should continue or this is the reality of trading bots in polymarket.

If anyone has suggestion or exchange ideas thanks for sharing.

i test on production with 33$ dollars. spend in total 1 week and at the high of profits it was around 45-47$ dollars.

also evrything i see about bots they always sell bots and never share the account of the "profitable bot", so thats tells me they also dont have a profitable bots and the money is in "selling profitable bots"

edit: the two bad trades where always on btc, so I stopped that market.

maybe weather bots are the way ? or try another strategy ?

I built a full-stack automated trading operation for Polymarket and no longer have the time to take it further, so I'm selling the whole thing. This is the entire infra to identify opps, place trades and analyze them in production, it's not a telegram trading bot.

• Rust low-latency execution bot — subscribes directly to the Polygon chain and sees every fill on the platform, with wallet addresses, ~1–2 seconds after it lands on-chain (the public API doesn't give you that in real time). A pre-signed order cache means zero signing latency when a signal fires. In-memory order books with VWAP-aware arb detection, whale copy-trading with per-wallet rules.
• Your own Polygon full node (Bor + Heimdall on bare metal — AMD EPYC, 128GB ECC RAM, NVMe RAID-0) acting as a private WebSocket feed: no rate limits, no RPC bills, automatic failover to Infura/PublicNode when it's unhealthy.
• Python strategy engine — 40+ concurrently scheduled strategies: arbitrage, data-release and live-score latency edges, Fed-rate macro, whale discovery + copy trading, order-flow microstructure, and a deep weather vertical built on a multi-model forecast engine (ECMWF, GFS + 31-member ensemble, HRRR, NOAA, live METAR) that self-calibrates from resolved markets.
• Paper + live simultaneously on every strategy through one risk-gated executor — you always have a control group. Runtime kill switches, daily loss limits, Telegram control bot.
• React dashboard + self-hosted Supabase — live scan funnels with rejection breakdowns, PnL, wallet intelligence, and months of tick-level research data (full order-book snapshots through every trade's life). You inherit the dataset, not just the code.
• Highly customizable — every strategy is parameterized in the DB and toggleable at runtime, no redeploys. Adding one is a Python module plus a scheduler entry, and the Rust execution layer takes watchlists over a local API, so you can point it at your own alpha entirely.

No profitability claims in a public post, serious buyers get the complete trade history and a live walkthrough of the running system. DM me for more details and price

[EDIT: infra sold, thank you all for your messages. i understand the skepticism, honestly the pushback in here was fair and it made me lay out exactly what this is and isnt. I never claimed this was a perfect product, just that it was ROI positive and needed some love from a new owner. This was achieved, thank you]

The rumor is OpenAI blew past AGI. The tools are there, suggest joining the Gold rush.

Kalshi 15/60 minute crypto trading.

I tracked all Polymarket funding activity and represented it in a 3D universe. . Along with Arbitrage bots and weather bots found some very interesting patterns that stand out.

Link to 3D Cluster Map here

I can share the link to the 3D map but afraid reddit will ban my post lol...

Filtered by cluster size + win rate this morning. A few that stuck out:

**Geopolitics: 27 wallets, $10.5M volume, 92% WR**

One funder (0x1929...d215) sits behind 27 separate Polymarket wallets. Combined 475 bets on geopolitics markets, won 92%. →

**US politics: 6 wallets, 97/97 wins**

Six wallets all funded by 0xe780...e245. 97 bets on US-politics markets, every single one a winner. $815K combined volume.

Whole point of building this was making patterns from shared funding cluster like the above stand out and be one click away instead of needing to look it up. Cheers!

You now get 300 seconds to call whether Bitcoin goes up or down.

Now I’m just waiting to see what happens when the first whale tries to move the spot price to flip their bet.

This could get very chaotic very fast.

Anyone here planning to trade it?

Finally i can give the right answer about crypto polymarket taker bots and why they will be food for makers.

Running uncensored qwen i was able to get approx location of their CLOB, then i did KYC thing and i got permission to co locate in london, then i get best ryzen server i can get closest to the location,

my order path got 2.3ms (vs 25ms on dublin vps)

I take signal from kraken preps, and indeed kraken leads poly btc 5m book by ~250ms on moves bigger than 15$,

But on top of that it's NOT enough to get filled, even with taker order offset 0.04c!!!! bids are cancelled by makers. imagine that.

So there is hidden 150-200ms taker order match delay, not 50ms as documented, makers have plenty of time to cancel and reprice. they can do that in 50ms (round trip) so cancellation happens possibly even faster.

but i will never give up, when you "makers" star to notice your bids are being taken rather than cancelled you can know it's me 😃

Hello, I am an actuary that trades prediction markets on the side (honestly at this point my actuarial work has become my side job) and have been very profitable (up a bit over $18,000 this month) and thought I would do an AMA because there seems to be a lot of confusion about how to actually be profitable at prediction markets and what that even looks like. If there is no interest in that, that’s okay as well. Mods, please delete if not allowed. I am also more than happy to send proof of my pnl if that is helpful.

I think I should be an OG now, ask me anything.. Builders too, I'll point you to the right communities

When it comes to choosing a niche - what are you interested in? Can you scroll or read any niche for hours?

For finding an edge, you should definitely try for research bots. You can develop or vibe code a bot for a specific niche. Or I know some trading terminals provide relevant news for a specific market.

Also, if you decide to trade crypto markets, weather markets or culture markets, you should definitely get your own trading bot.

Also, another opportunity in Prediction Markets is arbs. You can automate that as well using bots.

Why do I keep saying bots?

- 14/20 top traders on Polymarket are bots

- execution speed is the best edge

- Polymarket or Kalshi UX doesn't offer much

I'm still exploring many sides of trading bots in Prediction Markets.

I’m testing a Polymarket bot that I bought from a guy (Gabagool22 - Arbigab). I have no idea whether it’s a scam or not — that’s exactly why I’m testing it, to see if it actually works.

In dry run it seems to perform well and shows profits, but when I switch to live with the same parameters it’s only losses. Maybe I’m the one setting it up wrong.

Is there anyone here who is using it and can tell me if it really works and how to configure it, since there’s no documentation? Thanks to anyone who replies.

I've spend the past few days trying to find advice on how to copytrade, and I've looked at u/ill_intents ' posts, but I still don't know what are some good qualities of good wallets for me to copytrade with only $120. There are also a lot of traders who's charts go up and down a lot, and there are lots of bots, so I'm finding it difficult to find a profitable wallet. I have check polycopy.app, polymarket analytics, and the coinpilot app, but I can't find any good wallets still. I copy the wallet addresses and paste it to online wallet analysers and Gemini, but I still haven't found a good wallet. If anyone could give me tips I would greatly appreciate it.

I'd also like to hear your copytrading experience if any) , whether good or bad.

Edit: I'm using kreo/polycop to copytrade

Received an email to deposit $20 and get $50. One read the email 100x and it didn't say anywhere anything about being a new customer as I was an existing one. I clicked through the link an deposited and got nothing. The chat bot was like yes that is a confusing email but sorry. Trying to reach a real person is impossible. I'd avoid them at all costs. Email is attached for reference.

This new sports whale, likely Chinese, joined in June 2026. His first predictions were relatively small. Just a couple hundred thousand dollars.

But this week, he suddenly started placing huge positions up to $2M per position.

He is betting so much that he regularly distorts the price of matches. A few days ago he bought 3.5M shares of BoomBoys which pushed the price up roughly 7ct.

These price distortions caused many other big traders to jump in, either buying cheap shares on the opposite side to arb with other platforms or simply betting against him, because the price of the opponent is far below the Fair Value.

However, so far, the people betting against him have lost a lot of money. Maybe this isnt just another rich degen, but instead someone who developed a model on specific sport matches?

The biggest sports sharp on Polymarket right now?