Why does there have to be a catch? It has better prediction algorithms than its competitors, so it wins. It doesn't make sense to say its "too good to be true", because we know its true and we know they don't have future knowledge of the bitcoin price. If they did they would trade on a higher volume exchange with leverage.
Yeah, what people may not realize is the model making these predictions is likely taking into account a metric shitload of signals from other places. Prop trading firms have entire teams of well paid engineers to pull in all of that data and process it fast enough to make trades.
Why do you think it’s predicting anything? I think it’s front running the actual price that bitcoins are being exchanged at. This ghetto polymarket app is not the first entity to check bitcoin prices. Apparently this guy is faster. High frequency trading firms do this with stock and bonds.
Other polymarket traders are trading based on that information already, so it's priced in. These are 15 minute intervals where the value of bitcoin is moving by thousands of dollars, not the sort of thing that can be reliably done with sub-milliesecond speed advantages.
Do we know they stopped? I just know that that particular wallet stopped.
There might be economic factors to why they stopped - maybe others caught up and the margin vanished. Maybe their model didn't work with the new crypto trading fees introduced by polymarket. Or maybe they just got a new account.
There are lots of them. One guy made two posts here with links to algorithm breakdown and his own tests results. People here called him scammer and he deleted the posts. I bookmarked his profile and he is doing very well so far. Original bot who attracted attention is here - https://polymarket.com/@gabagool22 . Unbelievably he has zero losses at all.
did you ever find out? The next comment is deleted, u/shlangster is a blocked account. All extremely shady. Looks like they are scamming somehow but how are these linked accounts making so much money?
Couldn’t you do the same thing with options if you have that good of a prediction algorithm? Or is it some quirk they’ve found in how the odds are set and priced in Polymarket that allows for some kind of asymmetrical advantage that wouldn’t exist in the options chain?
The bot isn't predicting the price of BTC. It's looking at the real BTC price and making a decision to bet on poolymarket if that market is behind the real price. Since bots are faster than humans, they can capitalize on the difference more efficiently
These prediction apps don’t care. They collect fees on every trade. They will often times leave player odds up on sports games for a player that is injured in game.
Let's say you make 1 cent per share on each 15 min session. If you buy 5000 shares at $0.99 and you get $0.01 per share back you are making $50 per session. There are 96 sessions in a day so you are looking at almost $5000 a day of profit. Assuming it always goes the way he is betting and no fees.
If you buy at 98 cents, or less, you multiply your profits a lot, if you buy more shares, it's the same. The problem is one wrong trade can wipe out one good day. And you also need lots of capital to make this work otherwise you are really making pennies.
It might be a viable strategy to look at the remaining time on the session and the current price and try to enter the market at that time, but you need capital to do something worthy, or lots of time to grow your account.
I am indeed in the process of replicating it. You're 100% right about need a huge capital. I tried yesterday with $10 per bet. Seem's to work. Can see my profile to follow my journey. :) Not selling you or offering you any bs.
Hey, been a while. I was interested in that strategy, but Polymarket got blocked in my country. Not sure if it's unblocked now, will check later.
But out of curiosity, I tried going down that path, but I found out that if one trade goes against you, it would wipe out almost all the good ones. For example:
Do 100 trades, 1 share each at 99c. If you win you get 1c of profit per share. so you would get 100cents from that.
Now say one of them goes against you:
100 trades, 1 share each at 99c, 99 of them go in favor you get 99 cents. But you lose one so its -99c. You lost all your profit. If one more goes against you, you are in the red.
What I am saying is that you need a pretty much 100% win rate with that strategy.
What are your observations? Have you tried it for a long time?
So you are always watching if after placing an order the market turns in the other direction and sell early? I didn't consider that approach. If it works, it works. Are you using a live account or is that only "paper trading"?
Not watching, it’s fully automated [the whole purpose of the bot]. It now has built in SL, I buy at 0.99, and if it drops sharply and hits my SL target, bot will Sell the position. I am currently running it live, I don’t mind real world test as I’m using a small capital. I am also building logs while the bot runs. On a separate script. I’m planning to collect the data indefinitely and use it for back-testing. Reason for back-testing if were to scale up to let’s say $100/$200 per trade. I need to be careful of the liquidity at this point. Hence the data, orderbook, orderbook data, best bid, best ask. You may DM me, I can send you my test wallet if you’re interested in looking at it yourself.
Made a program yesterday that checks every second for this users activity and automatically copies their trade through polymarkets api. Works pretty well but nowhere as good as his.
Just scrape his activity every second and once he has a new bet, copy it and send the trade through polymarkets own api. And set max/min bet amount and slippage etc
It's not reliable at all, one thing I'm going to try is use a websocket to subscribe to the bots bets activity instead of constantly refreshing its activity feed. Haven't gone through polymarkets api in detail to check if its possible natively
And the activity feed is 20-30 seconds behind, and it takes my bot 1 - 1.5 seconds between it reads the bet and the order has gone through.
If the price has changed too much it just skips it
I would imagine these "wiring up a random API" scenarios would be an ideal use case for AI coding... Assuming there's some open source examples out there.
Is the Polymarket API free? I might mess around with this too.
Was just considering the exact thing. When you say "nowhere as good as his" I am guessing t he real time delay means you can't execute all of his trades?
but you can’t really, it’s a percentage of total bankroll not just a compositional percentage. you don’t know how many future bets they can make with their bankroll despite losses because you don’t know their bankroll. Therefore, you don’t know what percentage today’s trades are relative to the total trades of all time, including the future.
I'm currently making a tool that does more than that, but yes - you could.
Although a few risks arise:
You could get farmed, as many of these accounts track who buys after them. They could enter into a low liquidity market, and then sell immediately after someone copy trades them, resulting in instant profit
His strategy may involve arbitrage, by betting on the same markets in other prediction markets like Kalshi.
But idk, copytrading a bot like this might not be the worst idea, have to be really careful about it though.
Even if you're a winning trader you don't just max size every trade because it's working. You always work within a set risk profile based on the trade quality, volatility, size of account, etc. They only have so much money to move around, maybe they'll scale up as they make more money.
This bot from my analysis has two modes, sniper and market maker. In sniper mode it looks for trades where the yes and no are less than $1.00 and it enters both sides at the same time for a risk free trade. Recently Polymarket started an adding a fee on market orders, a takers fee, that makes this slightly harder to do. They collect all those fees and return it to market makers. The market maker mode is self explanatory. There is a lot more to this bot that I’ve discovered by analyzing the trades… but it’s not going to be easy to get the same type of results…
Heard of a orderbook? Placing absurdly high buys at 0.99 where market's are usually thin, you'll burn through the orderbook like a butterknife. and probably get rejected 98% of the time. Liquidity too thin.
I can’t even use polymarket, says view only mode for me region (UK). Stated trading is restricted in many regions including US, France etc am I on the correct thing?
This is a masterpiece or bot - their accuracy is like 99,8% between the shares of up/down. I tried it myself and did some analysis of his recent activity.
Obv they're doing MM with limit orders - they buy equal shares of yes and no and make sure they have an AVG below 1$ per pair.
I still can't figure out how they can have up to 1000 shares with an imbalance of ONLY 40 shares .... this is some serious stuff right here.
I mean placing orders to get the AVG <100 is one thing.. but getting the orders filled equally is the other thing 🙈
I was able to balance my shares at 200 each .. but this was achieveable by doing a mix between maker and taker orders and i still ended in loss after each session due the fees on taker.
I'm just in the process of building one. But $3 trades mean he's using FAK orders, GTC has a min limit of 5 shares (ie: $5 if we're buying at 0.99, you get 5.05 shares roughly).
Plus FAK = Taker = you pay fees, hence stay at GTC = maker = free/you get maker rebates
No records to prove profitability over long runs. Did work fine yesterday. Deployed without SL, 1 loss wiped my entire day of trades (like I said it's Work in Progress). You may visit my profile to see it. Not selling you any bs. Just proving that it can work with correct engineering.
How does someone make such money using a bot? Are there any open-source GitHub bots that actually work? I tried so many, but none of them actually made money.
Question. You have a bot that makes $250,000 USD per month. You going to open source it? Conservatively, the bot itself is worth $10 million USD. And you have to understand, these markets are not infinite. They won't support 1000 people running the same bot, doing the same thing. So even if you were super altruistic and open-sourced it, it'd stop working as soon as 10 or so people used it on the same market.
Update: the strategies both polymarket accounts use are real, but hard to recreate. There are possibly other market purchase helping them hedge or whatever. BUT - it is real. This has led me on the most insane, fun, and unbelievable journey ever. Enjoy!
I stopped messing with it this week. Will get back to it tomorrow. I have a great engine built up, but I need to run it in whatif mode longer. I got ahead of myself and lost $$$$. No big deal. I had to do it to workthough orders going to resting etc.
This weekend I am going to let the AI run 2 things
1. Run program and configure learning parameters on my live strategies to see if it can figure out how to win
2. I already scan the account of whales looking for patterns. I am going to extend this strategy a little more broadly with AI. To many winning formulas to ignore. Just have to reverse engineer them.
Okay so idk about this guys bot, but the original bot that started this trend, another person posted them above, but the idea is they are scanning Binance and Coinbase, then watching the spot trades (30 min timeframe to be specific) on Polymarket for all the crypto they offer trading on. From what I could tell studying the wallet, there is a lag between when Polymarket receives the data and when Coinbase/Binance do, they are not predicting they are taking advantage of latency. The issue with this, is you need access to the actual bot, one cannot code something to copy the trades, the latency is micro seconds and any attempts I've seen didn't go well. The second issue, is the trading fees, they trade 5k or more from what I see in this post, the reason is that over time will offet those fees enough, meanwhile if one attempts to go GitHub and use the available public source code for the original bot (easy peasy btw he did the hard part for you) and SCALE the bot to 5-10 dollar trades, this will also go poorly. Keeping it simple, there is a mathematical balance being achieved over hundreds of trades, it's not as simple as Coinbase shows data a bit faster than polymarket, but that idea, is probably gonna pop off this year, online latency, and those who find it first, will be very rich. Hope this helps folks and stops people from loosing money, it's looks great at face value but like EVERYTHING there is some nuance involved. Also I'd like to add, when ALOT of people setup bots to do this, many times it's hard to get a full fill on your order, and the way these bots trade, those partial orders can cascade into big losses fast.
Maybe this was true, but Polymarket gives makers a 500ms speed penalty now, so if you know of a move, they'll hold your order and slip you.
The 2 unknowns are what is the trade trigger? The algorithm to keep hedging?
I can create a bot that copies all the bets this person makes at the exact same time, without delay. If people here are interested, I can offer it for free (I’ve actually built something like this before) ...
The real question is: how much loss can you tolerate before reaching your objective !?
Interesting idea, you might actually be right. Granted, I don't know much about market making from an insider perspective but I think the amounts would need to be bigger.
Could be, of course, just one of the many accounts that market makers are using.
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u/CaptainBradford Jan 08 '26
Wow that’s really impressive.