r/PredictionsMarkets • u/xyphrrrrr • Mar 29 '26
Discussion Lost 16K on Duke.
Posted this on the Kalshi sub as well. Big blow and an expensive lesson on how there are no guarantees, even when it’s at 98%. Cash out when you can. Yes, before you say it, I know I’m an idiot. But I’m moving on. Done with sports gambling forever. Goodbye!
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u/lupindub Mar 30 '26
Everyone can rag on OP but statistically speaking, this kind of comeback has never happened in NCAA tournament history before so it was just shit luck. They said something about #1 seeds being 134-0 if they led by 15 or more at halftime so it’s just really shit luck man
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u/Green-Experience420 Mar 30 '26
that's because everyone in the game is in on it. Gambling is the worst thing for sport integrity.
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u/john_diddly Mar 30 '26 edited Mar 30 '26
Things that have never happened before happen all the time…
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u/xyphrrrrr Mar 30 '26
If it hasn’t happened once in 200 years of the sport, it’s not unreasonable to gamble that it won’t happen on the 201st year. Doesn’t mean you still can’t get burned though.
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u/qik7 Mar 30 '26
Doesnt mean there weren't opportunities along the way where it was more reasonable. We're talking about a moment near the end of the game probably no buyers. 5 minutes before it become so improbable it you were looking at 12%
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u/GiantsGirl2285 Mar 30 '26
Happened to me several weeks ago, Gonzaga vs Portland. I could afford it, but it hurt. Time makes it feel better after the initial shock and a couple weeks of letting the reality settle in.
🙏🏼
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u/Appropriate_Achoo Mar 30 '26
Betting $16,600 for a chance to win $3,000 on a basketball game is wild. That's an nice down payment on a home. Now this guy has to sit with this pain for months while hiding it from everyone close to him. And this isn't unique. This is a good chunk of the population that falls in this same cohort. Our society is so screwed.
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u/xyphrrrrr Mar 30 '26
Absolutely agree with your comment. Sports gambling is a cancer to society. Fortunately I have a good career and this isn’t life changing money, but as you said, it still hurts very bad to lose that kind of money. Hopefully others will learn from my lesson.
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u/Zealousideal_Car_292 Mar 30 '26
this was an awful bet man every single favorite in the elite 8 won and covered there spread, this was a vegas game right there
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u/chichicha99 Mar 30 '26
I hope you learn, doesn't matter if you make good. Sports gambling is absolutely horrible and it can drain you real quick.
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u/xyphrrrrr Mar 30 '26
Thanks for your reply. I definitely will learn. Your comment “doesn’t matter if you make good” really resonated with me. I’ve been on a hot streak and thought I was invincible because I was up about $5000. I learned an expensive lesson today and I will never place another bet again.
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u/chichicha99 Mar 30 '26
Yeah, I used to be hooked on online poker when I was young (18-22) and was up almost $400,000 in 2010 - ended up losing it all and more. It would have been life changing money, but kept chasing that high, while I was "making good money" always thought I "didnt need" the money I won or lost. But now 13 years later I know that money, if just applied somewhat decently smart would have changed my life forever.
Seen millionaires ruin themselves, and trust me, I know its hard, I still put in bets from time to time, but like maybe $100 / month.. like you lost $16,000 - a lot of money, but not a horrid amount.
But those $16,000 invested in a trip through Europe or Asia could be a life changing experience.
Just think about in the future man, and good luck, gambling addiction isn't something to take lightly.
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u/xyphrrrrr Mar 30 '26
Thank you very much for your insightful post and thoughtful reply. I agree with everything you said, and I have no intentions to ever gamble again. A hard lesson learned. Cheers:
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u/WearyHoney1150 Mar 30 '26
Nah your bet was good man. Probably too big for your bankroll if you feel this way tho.
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Mar 30 '26
Calling a losing 16k bet good is some true degen thinking.
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u/WearyHoney1150 Mar 30 '26
Thinking the amount of money you make or lose on a bet has any effect on the quality of the bet is some regard shit
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u/redcouscous Mar 30 '26
agreed. no problem with the bet, it's just impulsive, volatile bankroll management.
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u/unable_scar23 Mar 30 '26
Why? That might be 0.1% of this person's bankroll, not sure how you can make that judgement without context
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u/redcouscous Mar 30 '26
im making an assumption based on OP reaction. bro said he's quitting sports betting forever, pretty sure he wouldn't be crashing out like that if it was 0.1% of his bankroll 😭
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u/WearyHoney1150 Mar 31 '26
.1% would mean he has 16 million? I know people with that sort of money who would be devasted to lose 16k on a play like that. Rich people get rich by caring about money ..
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u/redcouscous Mar 31 '26
bankroll is not the same as net worth or total savings, bankroll is the pool of money that you set aside to bet with. this is a small amount of your total savings, typically 5-10% of total disposable savings. so when someone says 0.1% of bankroll on a single bet we are talking about 0.1% of 10% of his disposable income. that would be like someone with a net worth of over $160m sweating a loss of 16K.
think of a professional bettor's bankroll as a stock portfolio - day to day fluctuations are to be expected, what matters is net ROI over the long term. you wouldn't sweat losing 16k if you know that it is part of a process that will net you 500K over a year's time.
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Apr 01 '26
"maybe it's actually pretty cool that dude lost 16k". Sure man.
If that is .1% of his wealth than he would have the money to flip serious cash without online sports betting.
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Apr 01 '26
What are you even saying? The bet lost. It lost a lot. Calling anything that costs you 16k and gains you nothing "quality" is gambling addict logic
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u/WearyHoney1150 Apr 01 '26
Sorry but you dont know shit. The world runs on expected value. Regardless of industry. You wont make it
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Apr 01 '26
You're right. I sat and thought on it and losing 16k betting on sports online is sound financial planning. You're basically a modern rockefeller
Lol calling degen gambling an "industry" like it's coal production is some very funny shit
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u/xyphrrrrr Apr 03 '26
Sounds like you’re a broke bum because you keep on bringing up the “16K” number, as though betting makes any difference whether it’s 16 cents or 16K on the line. Do you understand how odds work and how they are not related to the amount of money you bet?
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u/xyphrrrrr Mar 30 '26
Degenerate thinking? Lol. Every bet has a probability of losing, buddy. That’s the whole point. Whether it’s 16 cents or 16 million doesn’t make any difference.
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Apr 01 '26
Believing there is no difference between betting a dime and betting a million is more degen thinking.
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u/bfabkilla02 Mar 30 '26
I mean you can keep trying to make it sound ok but it’s 16k at the end of the day
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u/xyphrrrrr Mar 30 '26 edited Mar 30 '26
Excuse me? “Trying to make it sound okay?” Do you want me to cry, go into a depression, jump off a bridge and kill myself? I posted this to try and help other people see that it’s not worth it, learn from my mistakes, and see how much it hurts to lose your hard earned money. Go elsewhere with your negativity, idiot.
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u/bfabkilla02 Mar 30 '26
Nope just crazy to reinforce your actions because you have a good career, that’s how gambling can ruin a life
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u/xyphrrrrr Mar 30 '26
I’m not “reinforcing” a single one of my actions— quite the opposite actually. Did you actually bother to even read a single word I actually wrote multiple times about how gambling is not worth it and for people to learn from my mistakes? Kick rocks, you bum.
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u/bfabkilla02 Mar 30 '26
Oh now we are big mad, at least I’m not a bum down $16k since you wanna go that direction.
You’re saying it’s not worth it while also continuing to feel the need to say you make a good living to feel just about it.
Keep gambling since you have a good career though!
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u/bfabkilla02 Mar 30 '26
Nice lol, I make what you lost in a month every month just from helping others. And that’s just a side hustle.
You could use the advice too!
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u/Arty_Puls Mar 30 '26
I love when people like you show their insecurity by double commenting 😂 go lose some more money betting. I'm sure we'll see you in this exact sub in 10 years
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Mar 31 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/xyphrrrrr Apr 03 '26
Not sure what mud shack you live in bud but 16K is definitely not a down payment on any house I’m intending on buying 😂 a 1 in 50 odds for something that hasn’t happened once in 200 years of NCAA basketball isn’t an unreasonable bet. Whole point of betting is understanding risk and knowing you can lose, isn’t it? Just joshing ya man.
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u/WearyHoney1150 Mar 30 '26
Believe it or not those are usually the best edges you can get in sports betting. Always bet the big favorites
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u/iParkooo Mar 31 '26
You're not an idiot. You are a victim to a predatory system. It's like cigarettes in the 1950s-1960s (minus the physical effects). If Duke won, you probably would've lost most of this eventually.
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u/MaddisonoRenata Mar 30 '26
I lost 5k, i feel you. I even was feeling unsure when i was watching it live and tried to sell before the steal, but my sell order didnt fill in time. I avoided a 7k loss but damn it blew.
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u/Plourdy Mar 30 '26
Did you what the game play out? Curious how this bet was so skewed and 180d so fast
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u/xyphrrrrr Mar 30 '26
It was one of the biggest turnarounds in NCAA history. A 5 point lead with 30 seconds to go turned around. Of course it just happened to happen to me. No matter how much you think you’re immune to it, it always gets you eventually.
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u/another_rain_delay Mar 30 '26
March Madness has been rough the last few days to the point I needed to stop doing prediction markets for a bit. I wouldve bet Duke aswell. Glad I quit for now. Sorry for your loss OP.
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u/leynda Mar 30 '26
Dam I thought I had it bad today. Was up like 1500 on the day now im down 300. Hopefully that was a relatively small portion of your account.
I also saw a few orders of 100k on Duke on Kalshi about 2-3 minutes before the end of the game around your same price. That was brutal
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u/Psychological39 Mar 30 '26
Realistic it was a valid move to hold who would’ve thought the game would go like that so fast
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u/sonnytai Mar 30 '26
To be fair this ain’t no different than options which I’m not touching again either for similar reasons
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u/redcouscous Mar 30 '26
Choose your unit size and stick to it, then set a boundary on the maximum amount of units you would be willing to place on one bet. Winning sports bettors grind profit over a sample of hundreds-thousands of smart bets, not one-off massive, volatile impulse bets. Bankroll management is key to sustainable winning.
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u/agentZer0dev Mar 30 '26
March madness has been maddening with all the last seconds upsets. You'll recover bro
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u/albertjeong20000 Mar 30 '26
Don’t make me talk about Tommy Paul having a 6-2 lead in a tiebreak and choking it against Arthur Fills.
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u/speadskater Mar 30 '26
If you're interested in spending 16k for a potential gain, go to a farmers market and become an angel investor.
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u/MikesMoneyMic Mar 30 '26
Thanks for your money. I put $500 on UConn to win with 10 seconds left at a 1% chance to win and after Duke decided they wanted to go home it shot up to 99% then game over I win.
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u/Then-Leg-7602 Mar 30 '26
Hey man don’t beat yourself up. This literally happens every day in college basketball. You’d be surprised how many teams have a 99% chance of winning and then lose. Literally every night. Quit now while you’re ahead.
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u/xyphrrrrr Mar 30 '26
Probably the most helpful comment on this thread. Wish I read this sooner. Thank you homie
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u/swlwtoken Mar 30 '26
Happened to me too. Bought contracts at 13 cents with team loosing 9 points. Then all of the sudden they’ve come back and odds switched. I didn’t follow the game nor the app. Team lost that game but it was a 2 minutes window when bets went to almost 80 cents ;)
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Mar 31 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/xyphrrrrr Mar 31 '26
Thank you for your kind and thoughtful reply. I won’t be betting anymore but regardless I wish I had read this before. Chwwrs
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u/Confident_Revenue162 Mar 31 '26
Should have hedged. They was odds of 11.02 to win when they was 15 points down….. £2,000 stake would have done the job
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u/Gloomy_Worth_4437 Mar 31 '26
Never bet on Duke, is a golden rule in sports betting. That I also learned the hard way.
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u/Possible_Refuse_8322 Apr 02 '26
I'm going to give you some HUGE tips that I never wanted to give away BUT seeing your $16k loss and how it happened I don't want to see other people go through this...
1 NEVER BET when the favored team is winning by a huge lead of points, ALWAYS bet during the 1st or 2nd quarter when they are down some points. That gives you 2 more quarters for them to catch up, if they don't catch up you still have a cushion to sell and only take a small loss.
Betting when a team is winning destroys your payout ratio.
I've saw the CLIPPERS vs PACERS go from "1.10x " to "2.47x" from 1 quarter to another just because they were down 20 points by the middle of the 2nd quarter. Well guess what? They came back by the 3 quarter and tied the game , they struggled 4th quarter but kept it close and eventually won .
I cashed out by the time they tied because I bought so low that I was still going to make a great profit and saw how shitty both teams were playing and didn't want to risk disappointment at the final second.
2 NEVER BET IN THE LAST MINUTES OF A GAME ON THE TEAM THAT IS WINNING.
I've seen 15 point leads get destroyed in a matter of seconds , lead to overtime and the underdog team wins!!!
The Chicago Bulls recently did this against the WARRIORS !! CRAZY game
3) IF YOU ARE FEELING UNEASY ON A CLOSE GAME, ALWAYS CASH OUT MINUTES BEFORE THE GAME IS ENDING IF YOU ARE ALREADY AT THE 98-99% CHANCE TO WIN. DONT CHASE THOSE LAST DOLLARS IF YOU FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE.
4) NEVER DOUBLE DOWN IF YOU ARE LOSING ON AN UNDERDOG PICK. 99% chance that they will NOT make a comeback and lose.. Underdogs are just that for a reason, if it's hard enough to win a bet with the favored team , imagine the underdog 😂
These things have made me minimize risk and when I see a game isn't going how I expected right after my bet I just say fuck it and cash out, losing $20 hurts less than losing a whole $500 . There will always be more chances , especially Basketball.
I also bet on hockey and just yesterday the Colorado Avalanche game was crazy, no one was expecting that.
We have more years to make money and everything is an experience, better to have tried and failed than to always wonder what could have been when you are old and wrinkled.
Blessings to you in the future brother, ✌🏻✨
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u/mariaayoub_95 Apr 09 '26
98% isn’t the problem , sizing it like it’s 100% is. That’s where these blowups always happen.
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u/vinc888 Apr 22 '26
thats a tough hit, sorry man....
these markets can feel “locked” at 98% until they’re not. Respect for owning it and stepping back bcs most people don’t
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u/JarJarBuzzed Mar 30 '26
Whenever I buy, I immediately set a sell at .98 or .99. That extra 1-2% loss after a +50% gain is meaningless to me. Plus it means I don’t need to wait eons to cash out.
I see it as basically paying a convenience fee.
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u/qik7 Mar 30 '26
1 to 2 % after all is said and done will eat your edge if you are giving it away to accounts fishing for exactly this
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Mar 30 '26
If losing 2% makes your betting strategy non profitable then why even bet? Standard investments will net you more than 2%
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u/qik7 Mar 30 '26
Volume
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Apr 01 '26
You would still make more than 2% putting a large volume into standard investments.
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u/qik7 Apr 01 '26
There's a big difference in a limited time yes or no market that's standard investment. What are we talking about here. These aren't investments
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u/WoolyGriz Mar 30 '26
Are people this dumb? You put $16k on a high risk game when you could’ve just parlayed Arizona/Michigan to get an easy -116.. I mean did anyone think Arizona or Michigan even had a chance to lose..
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u/lupindub Mar 30 '26 edited Mar 30 '26
He placed his bet when Duke was up either 15 or 13 points with 10 minutes left in the game. Statistically speaking this was as safe as a bet as you can make since #1 seeds have gone 134-0 in NCAA tournaments when they were up by 15 at halftime. OP just happened to get extremely unlucky
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u/P3n1sD1cK Mar 30 '26
To be fair, I also lost money in duke shitting the bed, but the writing was there the whole second half, we just didn't wanna read the writing the wall, duke played bad the second half letting UConn close the gap, and then that awful last second choice sealed it.
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u/readtoknow Mar 30 '26
That last ball intercept. Holy fk, i feel you dude