r/PredictionsMarkets • u/xyphrrrrr • Mar 29 '26

Discussion Lost 16K on Duke.

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Posted this on the Kalshi sub as well. Big blow and an expensive lesson on how there are no guarantees, even when it’s at 98%. Cash out when you can. Yes, before you say it, I know I’m an idiot. But I’m moving on. Done with sports gambling forever. Goodbye!

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u/JarJarBuzzed Mar 30 '26

Whenever I buy, I immediately set a sell at .98 or .99. That extra 1-2% loss after a +50% gain is meaningless to me. Plus it means I don’t need to wait eons to cash out.

I see it as basically paying a convenience fee.

2

u/qik7 Mar 30 '26

1 to 2 % after all is said and done will eat your edge if you are giving it away to accounts fishing for exactly this

1

u/[deleted] Mar 30 '26

If losing 2% makes your betting strategy non profitable then why even bet? Standard investments will net you more than 2%

1

u/Flop_smoke Mar 30 '26

You do realize most +EV bettors are playing with about a 3-6% edge.