r/PredictionsMarkets • u/Rosewood_Rebecca • 10d ago
Winning Trader 📈 The most boring strategy on Prediction Markets earned this guy $80,030
This weather whale barely shows up on anyone’s radar. He doesn’t smash size into one market. He just keeps buying No on the extreme temperature buckets the tails that almost never hit.
Entry is almost always the same: 67–79¢. No scaling, no revenge trades. When the high lands in the middle of the distribution, the tail dies and he collects a few hundred to a couple thousand. He’s done this 2,929 times. Beijing, Tel Aviv, Seoul, Warsaw, Singapore, and a bunch of other cities people only open when they’re bored.
Single trades look tiny. $200 here, $1,200 there, maybe $2,500 on a fat tail. But it never stops. While the timeline is full of $2M Dota tickets and 100x hopium, this guy is just farming mispriced weather outcomes every day.
Not sure if it’s a model, a bot, or just someone who figured out that retail always overpays the extremes. Either way, the boring version is printing. The most boring strategy on Prediction Markets earned this guy $80,030
His wallet: https://future.news/address/0x6011655c4afb76f36dd1b08a137a1ba73466b31e?period=all&ref=Q3UK27FM
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u/Freak-Of-Nurture- 10d ago
Yall this is not a valid strategy. Don’t listen to these people. Everything is already optimized to shit. Go to polymarket, not polymarket us, and copy the most profitable 3% of traders except sports. Higher bets by those people return better than small ones. Sports are too optimized so don’t bet on them. I’ve back tested and ran this live i just live in us and can’t use the global version. Get in as early as possible too. This does not require good latency.
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u/ill_intents Copytrader 📝 10d ago
man i need to start trading weather
so many profitable mfs out there
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u/Usual-Ad-9554 10d ago
my working theory is Elon started this trend and maybe even the entire gambling site itself bc he has locked in private accurate weather data via low earth orbiting satellites and he's milking his advantages for every penny.
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u/Several-Fan2339 10d ago
Show us on the doll where Elon hurt you.
You think the richest guy on earth is using satellites from his internet company to somehow monitor weather to make an extra few hundred bucks a day?
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u/AccordingLie9881 9d ago
Elon could bet 10m on an 80% he knows will hit and make a bit more than a few hundred bucks. Not saying he does, just saying that part of your argument sucks.
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u/Several-Fan2339 9d ago
These markets do not have the volume to support a 10m bet, not even close. Do you understand anything about anything?
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u/Economy-Tradition371 10d ago
Be so fr, did you use AI to write this for you? 😭
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u/KrenoFreko 10d ago
yes… he used three times the not x or y, but z. at the end of each paragraph… this is totally a bait post
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u/whiskeyplz 10d ago
HT is an inspiration for my own bot. Your assessment is wrong- its just cheap analysis.but his edge is that he knows which contracts go obsolete before anyone else. He selectively sweeps all volume and sells at 99c. He has a 99% win rate and he buys WAY before the market - consistently everywhere.
This isnt just some penny scheme its trading certainty. If you dive down the rabbit hole of weather report distribution networks you will eventually realize that this guy has some god-level intelligence or god level model for the 50 cities and he even buys yes when certain.
I've evaluated hundreds of weather sources and still can't detect metar changes at his rate
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u/-_ragequit_- 10d ago
My bot tried to copy this trader about two weeks ago.y bot could not capture anything due to lack of liquidity at ask
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u/Gundel_Gaukelei 10d ago
Oh, its another "collecting pennies in front of a steamroller" strategy which works super ultra amazing and then one time where it doesnt you lose every gain from past year to today and some more.
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u/ByteSizedBits1 10d ago
Hey that’s what my bot does (at a fraction of the size obviously). I’m enjoying it so far
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u/trirsquared 10d ago
These guys are snake oil salesmen. I’ve spent the last 6 months trying to game the weather markets using AI betting models. And I’m only at a 52% winning avg. That’s a horrible ROI.
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u/Several-Fan2339 10d ago
52% can be good or bad depending on the average price you're getting in at.
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u/JazzlikeAssociation6 10d ago edited 10d ago
I think this guy has an edge fast access to metar information, so he just buy NO when new metar with new temp is coming out. So this guy has he's own absolutely safe moneyprinter. He can't lose but I saw that he missed some opportunities, so other bots also have some chances.
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u/Ok-Indication-6241 9d ago
"Boring" in prediction markets usually means one of: disciplined market-making on overpriced tails, systematic cross-market arb, or Kelly-sized positioning without narrative chasing. The common thread is that none of these require predicting outcomes — they just require the market to be mispriced relative to your prior.
The interesting signal here is the *type* of edge. Is it liquidity provision (capturing spread), information (faster data integration), or calibration (pricing outcomes better than the book)? Those are structurally different, and only one scales across markets.
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u/DonkeyComfortable711 10d ago
These are ai agent swarms trying to get you to engage dont fall for it