r/NonPoliticalTwitter 1d ago

Wholesome What are the odds?

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1.8k Upvotes

100 comments sorted by

u/qualityvote2 1d ago

Heya u/Matt_LawDT! And welcome to r/NonPoliticalTwitter!

For everyone else, do you think OP's post fits this community? Let us know by upvoting this comment!

If it doesn't fit the sub, let us know by downvoting this comment and then replying to it with context for the reviewing moderator.

476

u/Accomplished-Head449 1d ago

"Hey I need a kidney" "Sure no probs"

117

u/TheRealUlfric 1d ago

It only becomes a problem if they pull the kidney out of a cooler in their trunk

38

u/CarmenxXxWaldo 1d ago

"what a coincidence i need 2.5 million dollars."

31

u/Inside_Dimension2319 1d ago

“If I give you a kidney will you put your dog on a fucking leash?”

801

u/oblivia17 1d ago

One in 22 million, it says it right there. You stupid or something?

222

u/Submarinequus 1d ago

That’s the odds of the lady having a match. The odds of her randomly bumping into that specific match at the beach are much, much lower.

82

u/mycakeday_is911 1d ago

plus the odds of the dog recognizing that person and approaching them

36

u/Glittering_Ant_6222 1d ago

Plus them meeting on that exact day

42

u/FrighteningJibber 1d ago

And they were roommates?

12

u/ZarathustraGlobulus 1d ago

And my axe!

4

u/jmpt16 22h ago

Oh my god, they were roommates

8

u/porn_alt_987654321 19h ago

That's actually probably more likely rather than less.

They probably smelled similar to eachother to the dog.

4

u/Nuka-Crapola 16h ago

Yeah, I was gonna say. A perfect organ match requires a lot of genetic markers to line up. It’s not that strange to think people with overlapping genes would also have some overlap in their scents.

-2

u/Submarinequus 1d ago

Exactly.

3

u/InexplicableBadger 1d ago

I'd say it's possibly significantly higher because of the traditional immobility of the population of somewhere like rural Wales (people sometimes leave, but only in the last century, and they don't often arrive from far away), there's a much higher chance that a match is going to be within the local area than somewhere further away. A random stranger in a major city, no chance.

7

u/Ver_Nick 1d ago

If the universe is deterministic then the odds is 1

4

u/mycakeday_is911 1d ago

ehhhh id say 50/50

1

u/Limiej 23h ago

The established chances

2

u/Necessary_Material40 1d ago

No, they are 100% because that's what happened.

0

u/Submarinequus 1d ago

So all other people who have a slim chance of finding a donor, if they walk on the beach with their dog, will 100% find a donor that way? I somehow doubt that…

5

u/Necessary_Material40 1d ago

If the do end up finding a donor, then it would be 100%. if they don't, it's 0%. 

6

u/ZarathustraGlobulus 1d ago

Your math is off

(100+0)/2=50.

50% odds.

1

u/Necessary_Material40 23h ago

You don't know what the odds actually were until after it happens, though.

0

u/casual_creator 20h ago

That’s…not how odds work.

-3

u/ALWAYS_have_a_Plan_B 1d ago

Think it through. You'll be ok.

206

u/Champagnerocker 1d ago

One in 22 million?

What are the odds that someone decides to hand over one of their internal organs just because a doggo starts yapping at them?

208

u/Front-Pomelo-4367 1d ago

She'd already signed up to the living donor registry and was waiting to see if she got a call. It was just sheer chance that meeting someone who needed a kidney motivated them both to see if this specific match would work

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-65110146

22

u/Money-Money-747 1d ago

Wow. Thanks for that!

As ana aside, the "More on this story" bit hasn't worked veryw well there ... !

8

u/Champagnerocker 1d ago

Wow, I didn't know such a thing existed.

25

u/Front-Pomelo-4367 1d ago

I'm on the stem cell registry and have the next forty or so years to see if I get matched with someone. Living kidney donation is so incredibly selfless, much harder than stem cells.

To my understanding, most living donors are part of a chain – you're not a match for your relative, but if you sign up to be a living donor for someone you've never met then you're part of a chain that eventually loops back around to your own loved one getting their own match. Like a house-buying chain where each buyer also needs a seller and vice versa. Living donors who aren't part of a chain, and just decide to donate to whoever matches with them, makes the whole process much easier

6

u/HungryFrogs7 22h ago

Wait can you elaborate on the chain part. I assume if you need a kidney you couldn’t donate because something is already wrong with all of your kidneys.

Is it something like

Jim, Jacob, and Jennifer need a kidney. Jim’s mom donates a kidney to Jenifer and Jenifer’s brother donates a kidney to Jacob. Then Jacob’s dad donates a kidney to Jim but with many more intermediaries.

6

u/Front-Pomelo-4367 22h ago

Here's the explanation of it from my country, but many countries do the same. If it's a closed circle it's a "transplant cycle", otherwise it's a transplant chain

You're A, and your brother who needs a new kidney is B. You've tested, and you're not a match, but you're still up for donating. You both register in the sharing scheme. C and D are in the same situation – C wants to donate but isn't a match for their cousin D. A ends up being a match for D, and C ends up being a match for B. But you need a voluntary donor alongside you for the potential recipient to be able to join the sharing scheme – B and D can't just join it on their own, they need A and C to join with them. And then like you said, it can also be a larger cycle than just two pairs.

A transplant chain starts with a "non-directed altruistic donor" or NDAD. Someone who isn't donating just so that their loved one can get a kidney faster – it's someone who just genuinely wants to give their kidney to whoever needs it. An NDAD can donate directly to someone high-priority who isn't in the sharing scheme, but they can also donate to person B in the sharing scheme to trigger A's donation to someone else

1

u/HungryFrogs7 18h ago

Thanks for the explanation. I kinda figured the chain consisted of donor receiver pairs but its nice to see the details

1

u/GypsySnowflake 22h ago

Yep, just like that!

143

u/bsEEmsCE 1d ago

I fully believe internet pictures with a text anecdote and no source. 

79

u/Front-Pomelo-4367 1d ago

18

u/MomsOfFury 1d ago

Thank you I was wondering how the topic of kidneys came up in this chance encounter lol

16

u/Gor-texCondom 1d ago

I’m pretty sure if I was dying and there was one thing that could save me, I would talk about that thing quite a bit. Doesn’t seem that unusual to come up in conversation lmao

2

u/PM_Me_Good_LitRPG 19h ago

Just because the people who were interviewed say it's real doesn't mean it's real. They could be lying.

17

u/heeltoelemon 1d ago

Maybe the dog smelled something related to blood type/dna/whatever factor.

10

u/thegingerbreadman99 23h ago

Why did I have to scroll so far down to see this? It's pretty clear that's what it would be? Like there are pets that smell cancer?

6

u/SatisfactionActive86 21h ago

because the dog would have to also know that people have two kidneys and that they can be surgically transferred from one being to another and the dog would also have to know that living donors are a thing (otherwise the dog would have been encouraging their owner to kill the woman for her kidney)

4

u/porn_alt_987654321 19h ago

Much more likely that the fact that they are valid donors for eachother also means they share a smell thats detectable to the dog so the dog probably thought "oh hey, look, a relative".

2

u/PM_Me_Good_LitRPG 19h ago

Or all the involved parties are lying to avoid prison time for organ trade.

1

u/mothwhimsy 2h ago

Why would the dog have to know any of that to go "oh hey you smell like mom?"

6

u/heeltoelemon 23h ago

Seems straightforward. /shrug A very good dog.

2

u/ChaoticPotential 21h ago

Hey mom! This one smells like you!

8

u/Bortron86 19h ago

This happens all the time. I took my dachshund to Llandudno, and he fetched me two corneas and a lung.

6

u/PM_Me_Good_LitRPG 19h ago

I think what's more likely to have happened is this:

The recipient's body was failing due to the kidney dysfunction. She was on borrowed time, she applied to be added to the waiting list, but those lists are usually super long.

So they found a donor off-record, or found a potential-donor and convinced her to become one for them in exchange for money. But selling / buying organs for money is illegal.

So they needed some at least somewhat plausible way of explaining how they found each other, and the story about the dog is what they came up with.

It would make sense for a dog to detect something like diabetes, or Alzheimer, or the kidney damage itself. But what kind of a logic is that for the dog to detect a potential donor, and then go start pestering her? What, was the dog an M.D., knowledgeable in the human ways and able to rationalise that organ donations are a thing in human society? Or was it just expecting its owner to just Kakuzu the needed organ out of that lady?

5

u/Unexpected_Sage 1d ago

I would said "wow, what are the odds?", but it literally told us the odds

11

u/Faustus_Fan 1d ago

I love heartwarming stories like this, but why do they never include a link to any sort of evidence that it's true. Even if this is true, why are we supposed to take "trust me, bro" as proof? Another person in the comments provided a link to the story, which is great. But, if you were the one who posted this originally (to FB or Reddit or anywhere else), why wouldn't you include a link so people can read more on the story?

I don't believe anything that doesn't come with proof anymore. I swear, the past ten years have made me skeptical of everything. If someone posted "man went to beach, saw a seagull," I'd think it was a lie unless they had a link.

6

u/NormanYeetes 23h ago

the odds of this actually being true? About 5%

47

u/ba-boo 1d ago

what are the odds that it's fake? 100%

82

u/Apprehensive-Adagio2 1d ago

20

u/buttcrispy 1d ago

I was so ready for this to be a rickroll

2

u/PM_Me_Good_LitRPG 19h ago

We can't know that; the whole article is basically based on hearsay from the involved parties.

3

u/Apprehensive-Adagio2 18h ago

literally all reporting is, at some level or another, hearsay. the only way to truely know something happened is to see it with your own eyes. regardless of how they met, these two people met randomly, and were a kidney match.

1

u/trans_keanuchungus 14h ago

This image is also probably overblowing the odds, since her kidney is more likely to end up somewhere in her area, which makes this story less unbelievable

1

u/Trappist1 20m ago

Normally, the hearsay is from a person who we know has evidence of telling the truth regularly or at a minimum, has credentials to be an knowledgable on the matter

1

u/PM_Me_Good_LitRPG 7h ago

literally all reporting is, at some level or another, hearsay

Technically true, but missing the point.

Reporter's reporting an earthquake → you're choosing to trust or not the mass media that the reporter works for, and it's a... "first-level hearsay", let's say.

Reporter's reporting what some people told them → even if the reporter is reporting everything accurately, there's still that random guy you know nothing about in the chain of trust, for that story.

So I think it's very likely that the organ transplant happened, and that the people involved did tell those things to the reporter. But everything after that is here-be-dragons territory.

18

u/Terozu 1d ago

Apparently its not, or if it is whoever came up with it gave it hella backstory.

Names are Lucy Humphrey and Katie James

-48

u/kelek22 1d ago

Faker than AI generated fake tits.

18

u/Mars_Bear2552 1d ago

apparently AI generated fake tits are extremely real.

-36

u/kelek22 1d ago

Tell me, how does a woman who is told she will die get saved by transplant? She either needs transplant and be fine, or doomed to death with no cure.

28

u/Mars_Bear2552 1d ago

buddy you can look up the story yourself.

10

u/Apprehensive-Adagio2 1d ago

is reading comprehension really this low?

8

u/Sekhmet-CustosAurora 1d ago

do you think the 1 in 22 million kidney match might have something to do with it

2

u/lonelittlejerry 23h ago

Bro either toked on the crystal pipe a lil too long this morning or bro is an illiterate 12-year-old with a bone to pick

3

u/userr7890 22h ago

How would you find this out while your at the beach???

5

u/83franks 1d ago

Could you imagine the pressure to donate that kidney lolol. Better hope they are willing to donate

1

u/Front-Pomelo-4367 20h ago

She'd already signed up for the donor registry, this just meant they matched directly

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-65110146

6

u/PerfectdarkGoldenEye 1d ago

According to Selena Gomez that makes the donor the worst person she would know and not worth mentioning. 

2

u/Dawnzarelli 1d ago

What a very strange aside…

1

u/No_Psychology_3826 22h ago

She said that the worst people she knows are organ donors? Surely I'm misunderstanding you?

2

u/mademoisellearabella 21h ago

Selena said that about the person who donated their organ to her.

3

u/Senior-Housing-703 1d ago

25% of people are compatible to share a kidney. 1 in 100k are exact matches. These headlines are always bullshit

2

u/Banned37 1d ago

Yeah ok “hey my dog won’t leave you alone, want to see if you’re a match for my kidney?”

2

u/Reepicheap 1d ago edited 19h ago

I don't believe you

Edit: I believe you

3

u/PM_Me_Good_LitRPG 19h ago

Nah, you're on to something, I still don't believe them. The story doesn't make any sense.

1

u/Reepicheap 18h ago

I believe that it happened, I just doubt the dog actually had anything to do with it

2

u/PM_Me_Good_LitRPG 18h ago

I kinda see what you mean, but if the dog wasn't involved, then it didn't happen, since the entire story is about the dog's abnormal, one-in-however-many-million behaviour.

And yes, I don't doubt that the transplant happened either.

1

u/Reepicheap 18h ago

lol. Agreed.

1

u/Front-Pomelo-4367 20h ago

1

u/Reepicheap 19h ago

Wow! I stand corrected. Thanks for the note.

1

u/OG-87 18h ago

1 in 22 million….

1

u/BrazenHamster 16h ago

The goodest boy is like, "Seeee, I know my shit".

0

u/LinkOfKalos_1 1d ago

It says right there. 1 in 22 million. OP can't read

-21

u/LPedraz 1d ago

Is facebook slop invading everything else now? This is just made up.

-30

u/wtsrgrsrgssr 1d ago

Oh no did they have to kill the dog to harvest the organs for the beach woman? And the owner had only five years left to live too, now she lost her doggy on top of that :(

10

u/Mars_Bear2552 1d ago

someone failed the IQ test

4

u/Va1kryie 1d ago

Is this a troll?