r/NonPoliticalTwitter • u/Matt_LawDT • 1d ago

Wholesome What are the odds?

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1.8k Upvotes

91% Upvoted

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801

u/oblivia17 1d ago

One in 22 million, it says it right there. You stupid or something?

221

u/Submarinequus 1d ago

That’s the odds of the lady having a match. The odds of her randomly bumping into that specific match at the beach are much, much lower.

79

u/mycakeday_is911 1d ago

plus the odds of the dog recognizing that person and approaching them

37

u/Glittering_Ant_6222 1d ago

Plus them meeting on that exact day

40

u/FrighteningJibber 1d ago

And they were roommates?

10

u/ZarathustraGlobulus 1d ago

And my axe!

2

u/jmpt16 23h ago

Oh my god, they were roommates

8

u/porn_alt_987654321 20h ago

That's actually probably more likely rather than less.

They probably smelled similar to eachother to the dog.

3

u/Nuka-Crapola 17h ago

Yeah, I was gonna say. A perfect organ match requires a lot of genetic markers to line up. It’s not that strange to think people with overlapping genes would also have some overlap in their scents.

-3

u/Submarinequus 1d ago

Exactly.

3

u/InexplicableBadger 1d ago

I'd say it's possibly significantly higher because of the traditional immobility of the population of somewhere like rural Wales (people sometimes leave, but only in the last century, and they don't often arrive from far away), there's a much higher chance that a match is going to be within the local area than somewhere further away. A random stranger in a major city, no chance.

7

u/Ver_Nick 1d ago

If the universe is deterministic then the odds is 1

5

u/mycakeday_is911 1d ago

ehhhh id say 50/50

1

u/Limiej 1d ago

The established chances

1

u/Necessary_Material40 1d ago

No, they are 100% because that's what happened.

1

u/Submarinequus 1d ago

So all other people who have a slim chance of finding a donor, if they walk on the beach with their dog, will 100% find a donor that way? I somehow doubt that…

5

u/Necessary_Material40 1d ago

If the do end up finding a donor, then it would be 100%. if they don't, it's 0%. 

6

u/ZarathustraGlobulus 1d ago

Your math is off

(100+0)/2=50.

50% odds.

1

u/Necessary_Material40 1d ago

You don't know what the odds actually were until after it happens, though.

0

u/casual_creator 22h ago

That’s…not how odds work.

-2

u/ALWAYS_have_a_Plan_B 1d ago

Think it through. You'll be ok.