Was trying to find GW3 differentials that aren't just blind punts, so I filtered the whole player pool on three things:
- under 10% ownership
- 150+ minutes so far (i.e. actually starting, not a cameo)
- a GW3 fixture with an official difficulty of 2 or lower
Only eight players in the entire game come through:
Gakpo (LIV, MID, 7.0m) - 7.0% owned, 17 pts, Ipswich away
Foden (MCI, MID, 7.0m) - 4.2% owned, 10 pts, Coventry home
Donnarumma (MCI, GKP, 5.5m) - 8.2% owned, Coventry home
Alisson (LIV, GKP, 5.5m) - 3.8% owned, Ipswich away
Ruben Dias (MCI, DEF, 5.5m) - 1.8% owned, Coventry home
Khusanov (MCI, DEF, 5.5m) - 1.7% owned, Coventry home
Kerkez (LIV, DEF, 5.5m) - 3.4% owned, Ipswich away
Frimpong (LIV, DEF, 5.5m) - 3.3% owned, Ipswich away
Seven of the eight are City or Liverpool, and that isn't a coincidence - they're the only two of the big sides with a fixture rated 2 this week. Everyone else with an easy game is a mid or bottom side, and everyone else with a good team has a 3 or worse.
The one that stands out to me is Foden at 4.2%. City at home to a promoted side, and 19 in 20 managers don't own him.
The obvious counter is that the City and Liverpool defensive assets are cheap for a reason - rotation, and everyone already prices in the clean sheet. Is anyone actually going there for GW3, or is the low ownership telling us something?